Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time
By Tyler Durden
When it comes to predicting the future, there has traditionally been a stealthy contest between economists and weathermen as to who is the worst predictor of coming events. Lately, there was some confusion when economists – this
Did the forecast humiliation end there? Oh no.
The gap between forecast and reality got bigger and bigger thereafter. In fact, over 30 years later, Japan’s nominal GDP and GDP per capital now is where it was 30 years ago even as Japan has piled up a total debt load that is now over 400% of GDP.
Finally, as a consequence, bond yields fell further and further, continuously undershooting forecasts.
Does this look familiar? If not, recall this chart?
And this:
Comical economists aside, “Japanification” is precisely what is happening to the rest of the “developed world” as global growth continues to deteriorate, global debt grows and the only short-term resolution is to keep rates as low as possible… and now, negative across 28% of the entire world.
This weekend we will lay out HSBC’s thoughts on what “turning Japanese” means for the rest of the world. Spoiler alert: only bad things.
In the meantime we ask, when will “economists” be finally laughed off the global stage for the charlatan comedians they all are?
Source: Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time
