Off The Grid Indicators Reveal True State Of U.S. Economy
By Tyler Durden
From Nicholas Colas at Convergex
Our basket of unorthodox economic indicators shows an American economy in a state of flux. On the plus side, used vehicle prices remain stable and pickup truck sales still show positive comps to last year. Light vehicle dealer inventories at 68 days supply are normal for this time of year, as long as car and truck demand hold up through the spring selling season. Google still autofills “I want to buy” with “a house” first and now “a timeshare” is second, showing continued strong consumer interest in both primary and discretionary housing. On the downside, food stamp program participation is still running +45 million individuals and +22 million households, down only modestly from the +48 million participants at the peak in 2013. Our proprietary “Bacon Cheeseburger Index” shows deflationary pressure on par with 2009 and 1998, pulling consumer inflationary expectations lower. And firearm background checks by the FBI both ramped to new highs in 2015 (+23 million) and show +40% year over year comps in the first two months of 2016.
There is a t-shirt popular in certain parts of the U.S. that bears the following message: “Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms… Who’ s bringing the chips?” Yes, ladies sizes are also available. And if casual clothing isn’t your thing, the same sentiment is available on caps, mugs, patches, greeting cards and bumper stickers. Just Google the term and you’ll see a wide variety of options.
If that sentiment abhors or confounds you, I can understand. America is a large country, both in terms of geographic and ideological span. What gets taken for granted in Manhattan draws a quizzical eye in Moline or Monsey, and vice versa.
Just as it pays to travel through America to understand it completely, we also believe it pays to look beyond the customary economic data to really get under the hood of the domestic economy. We’ve been doing this piece quarterly, highlighting these “Off the Grid” economic indicators, for 5 years now and they never fail to both illuminate and entertain. We’ve included our customary chart deck in the attached document, but the rest of this report will be a highlight reel of this quarter’s findings.
Take one simple example: inflation.
- Academic discussions center on either growth in the money supply or the change in the general price levels of goods and services. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure) is currently +1.7%, but we all heard Fed Chair Yellen’s skepticism on this data during her speech this week.
- The Fed Chair is right to be cautious, for it is inflationary expectations that really matter. If the population believes prices will decline in the future, or at least become relatively less dear, they will delay consumption today. Look for “Japan” in the economic dictionary to understand the consequences. To understand where consumer inflation expectations are going, you would do well to consider a …read more
Source: Off The Grid Indicators Reveal True State Of U.S. Economy
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