Aussie Dollar Plunges As Inflation Slumps To Record Low
By Tyler Durden
Despite surging commodity prices in China – which must be real and represent demand growth and price increases, right? – Aussie core inflation slowed to the weakest on record as headline prices unexpectedly fell last quarter (CPI -0.2%). RBA Rate-cut odds tripled instantly sending AUD down over 1.2% (its biggest drop in 2 months). Perhaps, just perhaps, that collossal credit injection in Q1 via China did not make it into the AsiaPac economy after all and merely fueled a speculative frenzy in commodities that merely “looks” like a recovery?
The Reserve Bank of Australia looks at two core inflation measures — trimmed mean and weighted median — and Wednesday’s report showed:
- Trimmed mean CPI rose 0.2% QoQ vs. median forecast of 0.5%
- Weighted median CPI gained 0.1% QoQ vs. median forecast of 0.5%
- CPI fell 0.2%, first decline since final quarter of 2008 vs. median forecast 0.2% rise
This does not look like a recovering Chinese economy is helping…
Which drove traders to bet on a rate-cut…
- *RBA MAY RATE CUT ODDS RISE TO 40% FROM 14% YDAY, FUTURES SHOW
“A pre-emptive May cut is surely now a real possibility,” said Gareth Berry, a foreign-exchange and rates strategist in Singapore at Macquarie Bank Ltd. “At the latest, an August cut is now inevitable. That spells the end of this three-month old Australian dollar rebound, and the downtrend can now resume in earnest.”
“Whereas the RBA was previously thinking that low inflation would allow it to cut interest rates if demand faltered, it is now clear that low inflation itself is the problem,” said Paul Dales, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at Capital Economics. “An inflation-targeting bank like the RBA can’t ignore such a big undershoot of underlying inflation.”
As Goldman notes,
We believe the RBA will now be forced to lower their inflation forecasts in the May Statement of Monetary Policy, not just due to the low CPI data for 1Q16 but also in response to the rise in the A$ through 2016 which will further challenge the RBA’s assessment that inflation will accelerate to well within the target band due to rising tradeable inflation. From our perspective the inflation data is key evidence that excess capacity exists in both product and labour markets and this is supported by private sector wages expanding at record lows and the recent erosion of surveyed measures of inflation expectations (see here). In concert with our analysis that the reported strength in GDP growth in 4Q15 overstates the underlying pulse of the domestic economy (see here) and evidence that economic activity is slowing in 2016 across a broad range of indicators (including investment intentions, retail sales, finance approvals, tourist arrivals, housing turnover, consumer confidence).
Moreover, the RBA clearly established the criteria required for them to act upon their easing bias; weak inflation, slowing employment growth and a currency at a level that challenges the RBA assumptions of future economic growth. On all three criteria the evidence supports the case to ease policy in May. Should the RBA choose …read more
Source: Aussie Dollar Plunges As Inflation Slumps To Record Low
100% Pure Garcinia Cambogia Extract – Appetite Suppressant – Carb Blocker Capsules – 2100 MG – 90 Caps
Looking for something special ? Find The Lowest Price HERE Posted April 27th, 2016 in Uncategorized.
