"Mother Of All Short Squeezes" Looms For Bitcoin
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
A little over two years ago, many of us, including myself, were expecting a bitcoin price resurgence back to the prior highs. On the other side of the fence was Vinny Lingham, a serial entrepreneur who also happened to be intimately involved in the space. His alternative view centered around an expectation that the bitcoin price would remain weak for quite some time before ultimately heading back up to new highs. I highlighted his thoughtful perspective in the post, Guest Post: Why is the Bitcoin Price So Weak?
I’ve been eagerly waiting for Vinny’s next installment, which he finally published last week under the title, Bitcoin 2016?— “There has been an awakening…” Let’s just say he’s turned pretty bullish.
So without further ado, let’s examine the words of the man who’s forecast back in 2014, proved so extraordinarily prescient.
Bitcoin 2016?— “There has been an awakening…”
This is the follow up to my previous post, which has been quoted widely in the press and research reports as one of the first articles to predict the sideways and downward move in the Bitcoin price over the past 2 years, along with identifying the “headwinds” that would keep the price in check. Now, I believe it’s time for an update, and a review of those fundamentals. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $450, exactly the same price as when I penned the previous post on this topic.
After reading my first post, entitled Finding Equilibrium in March 2014, one could argue that I was a bit bearish on Bitcoin?—?believing that it would trade sideways and down, until certain fundamentals were in place. At that point, most people inside the Bitcoin community expected Bitcoin to retest its previous high of c. $1255 in 2013 and easily break $2k. In fact, when I surveyed the audience at CoinSummit in 2014, barely anyone would take the contrarian view. I did. And this was coming from the same person who correctly predicted that Bitcoin would hit $1,000+, just the year before.
To summarize my previous post, I argued the following:
- Bitcoin is not a currency, but a commodity (it has since been declared as such by numerous bodies, including the CFTC).
- Mainstream consumer adoption was lagging (and it still is to a large extent)
- “Smart Contracts” will be a particularly important use case for Bitcoin
- Merchant adoption was outpacing consumer demand
- Lack of trust with exchanges and limited ability to purchase Bitcoin
- Loss of momentum (Bitcoin was on the way down, not up)
- Miner margins were being squeezed (forcing more coins to be sold)
How 25 months makes a difference in the world of technology! If we examine the points above, the following changes are clearly visible:
- Merchant adoption has slowed (as a %) and consumers are catching up?—?mainly early adopters, but the delta between the two has virtually reversed.
- Smart contracts have become the latest buzzword, along …read more
Source: "Mother Of All Short Squeezes" Looms For Bitcoin
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