IceCap Asset Management: "The Trend Continues"
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by IceCap Asset Management: April 2016 Letter to Investors
Revenge of the Risotto
ITALY (Rome) – Soft opera soared through the vaulted ceilings. Brunello di Montalcino poured freely in every glass. And then there was the risotto – the exquisitely prepared dish bounded with wild mushrooms, wild boar, and wild thyme. A perfect pairing for the wild bankers and even wilder, government officials. It was only early evening, but the laughter and back slapping was certain to flow into the late morning hours – and deservedly so, after all the Italian overlords had just pulled the wool over not only their 60 million countrymen, but also their dreaded and despised monetary rulers in Frankfurt.
Revenge would be savoured.
GERMANY (Frankfurt) – There was no music, no wine, and worst of all – no risotto. Yes, the European Central Bank (ECB) is based smack dab in the middle of no-fun Germany, but the President of the ECB is 100% Italian. And after 5 years of continuously taping, gluing, and conniving to hold the European financial system together, Mario Draghi was approaching his wits end. With the Germans, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Greeks, and now the Italians sharpening their knives, Draghi certainly isn’t tasting any love.
But what these countries don’t understand, is that you never go against an Italian central banker, when death is on the line – or worse still, when he is denied his risotto.
The Trend Continues
Here at IceCap, we have the privilege of speaking with investors from around the world. Our objective perspective is resonating with investors everywhere which has provided us direct contact with people in Asia, the America’s and Europe. This is an asset we cherish dearly.
And what we find the most interesting is that everyone we speak and email with, all have the very same concerns. Many of these people are every day, average people – they work hard for their money, and are saving for rainy and sunny days.
In the past 3 weeks alone, conversations with investors in Europe, America, Canada and India have all focused on the same topic – interest rates, and more specifically NEGATIVE interest rates.
Think about this for a minute – in normal times, the world’s economies are never in sync. Some are ebbing, while others are flowing, and others are simple standing still.
Yet, today it has become quite apparent that all economies have converged in the same direction – and this is a VERY rare feat.
At IceCap we begin every day the same – we scour data points and news stories to help us change our economic, monetary, and financial markets view. We are not looking for evidence to confirm our view, in fact it is the exact opposite – we want to discover reasons to change our view.
We feel strongly, that adapting this approach will serve as our cross-check, and counter point.
Granted, as nothing moves in a linear line, there will undoubtedly be periods when it appears that our view should be changed. …read more
Source: IceCap Asset Management: "The Trend Continues"
