Germany May Be A Bigger Threat To The European Union Than Brexit
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,
Two polls were recently released that call the European Union in question.
A poll in Italy reported that the Five Star Movement (a populist political party that wants to hold a referendum on whether Italy should remain in the European Union) was the most popular political party in the country ahead of local elections scheduled for next month.
On the same day, British researchers who surveyed nine EU countries reported that 45 percent of respondents believed that their country should hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU.
48% of Italians want to leave the EU
Reuters tried to explain that political scandals, which have undermined public confidence in current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party, affected the poll numbers. But this is Italy we’re talking about, the same country that brought us Silvio Berlusconi.
The country is no stranger to political scandals. A few instances of corruption would not be enough to make an anti-establishment party like the Five Star Movement as popular as it has apparently become.
The problem in Italy is economic. Unemployment in at least four of Italy’s southern provinces is over 18.8 percent, and in the other southern provinces, it is between 12 percent and 18.7 percent. And Italy hasn’t yet solved its non-performing loan problem.
Two simultaneous phenomena are occurring here. The first is disillusionment with the Italian government. What was an economic problem has become a political problem, and since Italy is a democracy, its leaders can be voted out of office. The next general election is not until 2018, but if developments continue to unfold in Italy, the situation is only going to get worse for mainstream political parties.
The second, deeper question is whether Italy wants to stay in the European Union. A Euroskeptic party is becoming the most popular political party in the eurozone’s third-largest economy. The rise of euroskepticism manifests itself in the polls, too—58 percent of Italians wanted a referendum on EU membership, and 48 percent would have voted to leave the EU.
In France, one of the twin pillars of the EU, 55 percent of survey respondents agreed a referendum should be called, and 41 percent said they would vote to leave.
Brexit debate adds fuel to the fire
Most debates over Brexit have revolved around potential consequences for Britain—whether Scotland might push for another independence referendum and join the EU on its own terms, or whether and how much (in terms of money and jobs) the UK would lose as a result of a decision to exit.
What was less addressed, however, is how Britain’s stand against the EU and the public debate is dividing the rest of Europe. Prime Minister David Cameron negotiated a series of exceptions early this year. Even if the UK remains, it will have a new set of understandings with Brussels, and other countries may follow its lead.
If Britain leaves and doesn’t undergo an apocalyptic depression, poll numbers might begin to trend upward—and they don’t have a long way …read more
Source: Germany May Be A Bigger Threat To The European Union Than Brexit
