BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk
The BLS JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover) report came out today.
The BLS claims jobs openings are up. Based on an alternate reports, I suggest opening are not only down, but falling steeply.
The implications are huge, so let’s dive into the discrepancies.
BLS: Job Openings vs. Hires
That’s how the BLS sees things. Before we dive into the alternate view, let’s take a peek at mainstream media analysis.
Mainstream JOLTS Comments
Bloomberg Econoday spins it this way:
Job openings are up but hiring isn’t, in what are mixed but still favorable results from the April JOLTS report. Job openings rose to 5.788 million from a downward revised 5.670 million in March. The job openings rate also rose, up 1 tenth to 3.9 percent. The hiring rate, in contrast, fell a sharp 2 tenths to 3.5 percent in what perhaps confirms anecdotal reports that employers are having a hard time finding qualified applicants for skilled positions. In a separate indication that points to weakness in worker confidence, the quits rate fell 1 tenth to 2.0 percent suggesting that workers are not shopping their skills around to other employers. Back on the positive side, the layoff rate fell 1 tenth to a low 1.1 percent. This report is mixed and embodies what are increasingly mixed signals across employment indicators in general.
Supposedly hiring is down because employers cannot find qualified workers.
How about the fact that part-time employment for economic reasons soared by 468,000? For more grim details, please see Fed Hiking Not: Payroll Jobs +38K, Employed +26K, Labor Force -458K, Revisions -59K.
Beat the Street
CNBC reported 5.8 Million Job Openings in April vs 5.7 Million Expected.
Hooray!
Job Openings – Real Time Macroeconomics
Jon Hartley, Researcher and Policy Analyst for Real Time Macroeconomics see things this way (anecdotes Mish).
Clearly someone is wrong. Who is it?
Red Flag on the US Economy
Please consider the Financial Sense report Real Time Online Jobs Data Continues to Raise a Red Flag on the US Economy.
Following the big jobs miss last Friday, we recently showed that this trend is likely to continue without a turnaround in leading employment indicators.
Another important data point that we’ve been keeping our eye on is online jobs listings, which, as we noted last month, were beginning to plunge and rollover in a manner similar to the last US recession
Our contact is Jon Hartley at Real Time Macroeconomics who previously worked at the Federal Reserve, Dallas Cowboys, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a quantitative analyst, economic researcher, and data scientist of sorts.
When we spoke to him a couple months ago on our podcast about his company and using real-time online data for tracking changes in the economy, he said there were some signs of leveling off but no clear red flags just yet.
Since that time, however, the data they track has moved from leveling off to outright decline and Jon just recently emailed us to say he is now “leaning toward forecasting …read more
Source: BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!
100% Pure Garcinia Cambogia Extract – Appetite Suppressant – Carb Blocker Capsules – 2100 MG – 90 Caps
Looking for something special ? Find The Lowest Price HERE Posted June 9th, 2016 in Uncategorized.
