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By Tyler Durden

Despite the surge in risk assets and bookies' odds, opinion polls show the Leave and Remain campaigns still neck and neck ahead of Thursday’s U.K. referendum on EU membership. Here are some key events that could drive market sentiment in the days and weeks ahead.

“Leave” odds have plunged in recent days (post Jo Cox' death)

But, as Bloomberg details below, there is a lot to come…

JUNE – AHEAD OF VOTE

• 20: Result of Italy regional elections; Five Star Movement candidates won in Rome and Turin mayoral elections NOTE: Peripheral spreads widened last week ahead of the U.K. vote amid concern about what Brexit would mean for the future of the EU; domestic political risks add to Carmignac’s caution on bonds in the periphery markets

• 20: Leader of the U.K. opposition Jeremy Corbyn to answer questions on Sky
• 21: Germany’s Constitutional court to release ruling on ECB’s OMT program at 10 a.m.
• 21: BBC hosts TV debate on referendum; C. Suisse says it may be key market event, citing events before the Scottish referendum in 2014
• 21: EU Referendum Survey published by NatCen Social Research; Jefferies analysts say could be most important survey as combines online and phone polls but won’t be based on responses of volunteers
• 21: Second additional BOE ITLR operation around referendum; banks allocated GBP2.46b at the first operation vs avg allocation of GBP2.95b in prior six
• 22: Channel 4 TV debate

JUNE 23-24 – VOTING AND COUNT

June 23 7 a.m.: Polls open

• Opinion polls based on voter intentions may be released during the day

10 p.m.: Polls close; there won’t be an exit poll

• 382 counting areas are due to report

June 24 12.30 a.m.: One of the earliest constituencies to declare will be Sunderland; a close result there would suggest the remain camp has won, says University of East Anglia academic Chris Hanretty

• The remain vote is likely to look “high” relative to the eventual outcome in the early hours, JPMorgan analysts say based on modeling by the University of Bristol’s Ron Johnston

4 a.m.-5 a.m.: Around 80% of authorities are expected to have made a declaration; the Brexit count is much less likely to deviate materially from the ultimate result at this stage, they say

Around 7 a.m.: the final three results are due; once the final area has declared, Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson will formally announce the national result in Manchester

JUNE – AFTER THE REFERENDUM

The tone of the debate over EU membership within the U.K.’s ruling party suggests the fates of PM David Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne are now tied to the outcome.

Domestic politics could also impact the tone of negotiations with the EU and market sentiment, analyst at UBS said at a conference in London last week

• 24: If the U.K. votes to leave, central banks and analysts expect market volatility; ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny says the ECB is ready to provide liquidity, while the SNB and BOJ have said central banks are in regular contact
• Commerzbank expects concerted FX intervention on any Brexit
• 24: The results of the ECB’s first TLTR0-II operation …read more

  Source: UK Referendum Timeline: What’s Next & What Happens After The Brexit Vote

      

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  Posted June 20th, 2016 in Uncategorized.