South China Sea: Storm In A "Far Larger" Indian Ocean Teacup
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,
With global attention focused on BREXIT calamity, potentially more important questions are being overlooked, and especially in the South China Sea where storms are currently brewing between China and a range of littoral states for strategic control of territorial waters.
To be clear, our long term geostrategic position remains unchanged; China will gradually secure control of the South China and East China Seas through its so called ‘nine dash’ line, with the eventual battle for geo-maritime ascendency playing out in the Indian Ocean into the 2030s between China on the one hand, and America on the other. That much remains inexorable, but it’s what happens along the way to that eventual outcome where all the residual risks remains.
The most proximate trigger currently relates to pending legal rulings in The Hague that’s almost certain to rule in favour of Philippines legal claims towards the Spratly Islands. We’ll leave all the legal complexities aside, where this is essentially adjudicating on the technical basis of UNCLOS claims rather sovereignty per se. But suffice to say, China will not only reject the findings, it will up the ante with sabre rattling and maritime movements around the Spratly’s with further land reclamation around Scarborough Shoal. It’s also possible China will initiative targeted sanctions against Manila (a nice welcome message for the incoming President Duterte) to prove its point. Anyone willing to stand in the way of Chinese geopolitical pull, will be pushed off the edge of a ‘geo-economic atoll’, at least when it comes to creeping Chinese consolidation of its nine dash line.
Right on cue, the Chinese have just leant heavily on Cambodia to retreat a joint ASEAN statement against Beijing’ claims in the South China Sea, as a classic Chinese tactic to keep any disputes purely on a bilateral divide and rule basis with Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and to a lesser extent, Malaysia. Coincidently, this is where China has all the economic leverage (see chart). That will take some of the heat off the pending ASEAN Regional Forum, not to mention Chinese G20 meetings in September. But the overall rules of the game are clear: If or when, China faces any geopolitical opposition to its maritime claims, it won’t hesitate to wield a large geo-economic stick to beat smaller starts into submission. Needless to say, exactly the same story applies closer to North East Asian home when it comes to maritime tussles with Japan over the Senkakus, and South Korea over Takeshema. China will continue to divide and rule competing littoral states, using geo-economic strength to rail through new geo-maritime facts on the ground.
The real question isn’t whether Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia occasionally play up and push back against Chinese actions, but ultimately where the US is going to draw the line to put a serious finger in China’s ‘nine dash’ dyke? While it’s true America is overseeing a fundamental reboot of the 7th fleet, shifting 60% of its naval and maritime …read more
Source: South China Sea: Storm In A "Far Larger" Indian Ocean Teacup
