A Complete List Of What Trump Can, And Can Not Do, On Day One And For The Rest Of 2017
By Tyler Durden
With the Trump inauguration just over 10 days away, attention has now shifted to what Trump will do the moment he steps foot in the White House, and as The Hill reported this morning, judging by his campaign promises, Donald Trump will be a busy man starting on his first day in the Oval Office: “Trump has pledged to take sweeping, unilateral actions on Jan. 20 to roll back President Obama’s policies and set the course for his administration. Many of Obama’s policies he can reverse with the simple stroke of a pen.”
The Hill then lays out some of the key agenda items in terms of Immigration, Environment, Lobbying, Trade and Healthcare.
The reality, however, is a bit more nuanced than captured in the report, and has to take into consideration not only what Trump’s intentions are, but how they would integrate with Congress, where simply structural limitations could put hurdles ahead of the Trump agenda.
So, for a more comprehensive preview of what Trump can – and can not do – both on day one, and for the rest of 2017, we present a recent analysis by Alec Phillips of Goldman Sachs (which, now that Trump has surrounded himself with Goldman alumni will be as critical when it comes to fiscal policy as Goldman was when it came to advising the Federal Reserve on monetary policy), which notes that the political agenda for 2017 is starting to take shape, with tax reform and Obamacare repeal seemingly at the top of the agenda.
Trump will be delighted to know that both items can be passed without Democratic support via the budget reconciliation process.
Obamacare repeal is first on the list. The Senate has already taken the first steps in the process, and the repeal legislation is expected to become law by February. However, Obamacare replacement legislation is apt to take much longer, particularly because it will require bipartisan support.
Tax reform process is expected to begin in earnest in late March or April in the House. The hotly debated “border adjustment” and limitations on interest deductibility in its proposal to be retained in the next version of the proposal. That said, while some limit on interest deductibility is likely to be enacted, there is only a 30% chance that the border adjustment proposal will be enacted this year according to Goldman.
The outlook for other issues is murkier. While infrastructure was discussed often during the campaign, there has been little congressional focus on it thus far, and it is possible that the program will be limited to package of tax incentives for public-private partnerships. Trade policy is also harder to predict. President-elect Trump will have authority to impose tariffs and has raised the possibility since the election. In the near-term, we expect the Trump Administration to focus on more targeted actions—antidumping duties and the like—but the threat of tariffs is not expected to recede, either.
It is also worth noting, that the policy focus so far has been on the …read more
Source: A Complete List Of What Trump Can, And Can Not Do, On Day One And For The Rest Of 2017
