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By Tyler Durden

How do you know with certainty that Davos has not only jumped the shark, but has become a parody of itself? One answer: when you have a handful of semi, and not so semi, billionaires – perplexed by the populist backlash of the past year – sit down and discuss among each other how a “Squeezed and Angry” middle-class should be fixed.

As Davos puts it, “once the lynchpin of developed economies, it’s now threatened by job losses and stagnant wages, paving the way for the rise of populism. In emerging markets, middle class growth rates are stalling. Have middle class problems been forgotten?” It asks rhetorically “What can be done?”

Apparently the answer is to have three people completely disconnected from the real, sit down and provide answers:

In this session, starting at 0800 GMT, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Founder, Chairman and Co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, discuss what’s needed to restore growth in the middle class and confidence in the future.

Watch it live below

…read more

Source: Live From Davos: Ray Dalio, Christine Lagarde And Larry Summers Discuss How To Fix The "Middle Class Crisis"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

History books remember Herbert Hoover as one of the worst American presidents.

Hoover, a Republican, was a rich and successful businessman with investments all over the world. He was also somewhat of an outsider, having never held elected office until he was inaugurated in March 1929.

Today, people associate him with massive infrastructure projects like the Hoover Dam, as well as the Mexican repatriation program, which deported over 500,000 illegal Mexican immigrants.

Hoover also placed tariffs on foreign products entering the US and established other protectionist trade policies.

Of course, when people think of Hoover, they mostly think of the Great Depression.

Throughout the 1920s, the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies helped create an enormous stock market bubble.

In August of 1929, the Fed raised interest rates and effectively ended the easy credit.

Only a few months later, the bubble burst on Black Tuesday, in October 1929, barely seven months after Hoover took office. The Dow lost over 12% that day. It was the most devastating stock market crash in the US up to that point. It also signaled the beginning of the Great Depression.

This happened on Hoover’s watch. And because of that, people pinned the blame squarely on him, regardless of where the fault lied.

Hoover was an easy target. The Democratic National Committee’s publicity chief coined the term “Hooverville” for the countless shantytowns that sprung up across the country.

Hooverville outside of Seattle

The term was such a hit, they tried coming up with others.

Newspapers were “Hoover blankets.” The cardboard used in a worn-out shoe was “Hoover leather.” A “Hoover wagon” was a car with horses hitched to it because the owner couldn’t afford gas.

Blaming the Great Depression on Hoover was easy for Democrats. In the minds of many people, Great Depression = Herbert Hoover.

It was obvious a Democrat would win the next election, which is exactly what happened. It took Republicans another 20 years to take back the White House.

Now there’s a good chance Americans have elected Herbert Hoover II.

Outsiders

Like Hoover, Trump is a rich businessman with investments around the world. He’s also an outsider who hasn’t held elected office before.

Mexico

Like Hoover, Trump has a troubled relationship with Mexico. Hoover started the Mexican repatriation program. Trump has inflamed Mexicans with his rhetoric and plans to build a border wall.

Big Infrastructure Spenders

Hoover implemented enormous infrastructure projects like the Hoover Dam. Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure.

Tariffs

Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act into law under pressure from struggling American workers. The law raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods to record levels. It also kicked off a tariff war, reducing American exports by half. It was a crushing blow to the American economy.

Trump is the most protectionist president since Hoover. He’s threatened to slap a 45% tariff on Chinese imports and a 35% tax on Mexican imports.

Trump says “China is eating our lunch” and sucking “the blood out of the US.”

Stock Market Bubbles

Hoover inherited a stock market bubble near its peak – fueled by the Fed’s easy money policies.

I think …read more

Source: Trump Could Go Down As The Worst President… (But It Will Not Be His Fault)

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By The_Real_Fly

What can go wrong, after all? The Chinese government has already informed us their real estate market, which is being driven by records amount of debt, is NOT in a bubble, so relax, chill and enjoy a large overflowing bowl of wanton soup.

Take Larry Hu, for example, economist from Macquarie. He posited, back in October, that the +25% year over year price jumps for Chinese property wasn’t indicative of a bubble…because MUH lack of supply. Perfectly normal stuff.

Source: BBG

Big cities like Shanghai are experiencing net immigration with only limited blocks of land coming on the market. “If Shanghai sells only one parcel of land in a year, the price of the land must be extremely high – this is not a bubble; this is a shortage of supply,” Hu said.

We can revisit a litany of smug remarks by any number of US economists before the US housing market collapsed — almost mocking those who warned against unchecked gains in property prices.

Take, for example, the missives of Jonathan McCarthy and Richard W. Peach — senior economists at the NY Fed.

“Home prices have been rising strongly since the mid-1990s, prompting concerns that a bubble exists in this asset class and that home prices are vulnerable to a collapse that could harm the U.S. economy.

“A close analysis of the U.S. housing market in recent years, however, finds little basis for such concerns. The marked upturn in home prices is largely attributable to strong market fundamentals: Home prices have essentially moved in line with increases in family income and declines in nominal mortgage interest rates.”

Or, we can look back at the advice of Chris Flanagan, head of ABS Research, JP Morgan — and laugh at how stupid he was.

“Based on what we know and see in terms of employment and interest rates, it is extremely difficult to see how five years from now we could be looking back and observing a historical 5-year growth rate of, say, less than 5%. That should be more than adequate to support the continued good credit performance of sub-prime mortgage pools.

“It is important to understand — we can contemplate home price growth rates declining, albeit modestly, but we do NOT envision home prices declining!”

This out of China tonight — record home prices.

Source: Beijing Monitoring Desk
Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 12.4 percent in December from a year earlier, slowing slightly from a 12.6 percent increase in November, an official survey showed on Wednesday.

Compared with a month earlier, home prices rose 0.3 percent nationwide, slowing from November’s 0.6 percent, according to Reuters calculations from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing prices rose 23.5 percent, 26.5 percent and 25.9 percent, respectively, from a year earlier.

Monthly growth in Shanghai and Shenzhen slowed but was unchanged in Beijing as local governments’ tightening measures took …read more

Source: Chinese New Home Prices Soar by 12.4% in December — Higher by 25% in Tier One Cities

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by David Battistella

A Violent Inauguration? A Call For Peace On Inauguration Day

Now that all attempts to delegitimize President Elect Trump to this point including failed recounts, the constant drum beating about popular vote victory, intimidation, bullying and desperate pleas to the Electoral college and the attempt at cold War 2.0 have failed, will inauguration day be the last stand? Now even millionaire Catholic socialist filmmaker Michael Moore is leveraging a Trump presidency to catapult himself back into relevance while his home state is already feeling the benefits of the Trump effect.

Moore has already shown up to Trump tower with his trademark (and tired) Roger and Me shtick and he is a leading voice in calling for civil disobedience protests, a whole hundred days of them, starting on inauguration day. While this is probably a key way to gather material for his next film about how awful America is, he left out a key word in his call to action – peaceful.

While Michael Moore is calling for civil disobedience, many signs are pointing to the possibility of violent protests. All this while President Elect Trump is already putting jobs back into Moore’s home state of Michigan and the country is already seeing some signs of being hit with the Trump’s economic defribulator. What a sad pair Moore and Rosie O’Donnell make, leading the charge!

I’m sure Mr. Moore would be on his soap box had Obama done anything this useful for Michigan in the last eight years, but alas, we seem to have become so attached to identity politics that we can no longer celebrate the good even when it directly impacts issues like jobs, the one issue Michael Moore staked his entire career on back before his net worth took him into the one percent.

Meanwhile at DNC headquarters, Donna Brazile has it backwards, it’s Democrats who have a great chance to move back toward their roots and embrace Americana again by getting behind proposed initiatives that might help the American worker and stimulate a browbeaten economy.

In any case, it seems definite that there will be a wave of protests on January 20th as Americans who oppose this presidency rightly should exercise their right to free speech. The larger question though is whether those protests will turn violent and turn inauguration day into an international spectacle. This might not have a desired effect on the rest of the world.

Violence is a line, which when crossed, catapults the violent aggressor into another category beyond how civilized democracies should operate. When it comes to debate and protest I can listen to and follow any discourse, weigh the arguments and always respect a peaceful protest process. The moment that process turns to violence, looting, destruction of property, injury to peace officers and civil unrest; (to me at least) the messenger is no longer playing by the rules of a peaceful democracy. They have, in effect, suspended some of the rights afforded them and their expression of free speech. …read more

Source: A Violent Inauguration? A Call For Peace On Inauguration Day

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By Tyler Durden

A curious sight was observed in the skies above Area 51 in Nevada, on November 8, the day Donald Trump was elected President, by vacationing air traffic controller Phil Drake. According to Drake, the photographs below all taken by him, show a Russian-built Su-27P fighter jet taking on a US Air Force F-16 engaged in a mock dogfight training mission.

The moment a US F-16 was caught in a mock dogfight with a Russian SU-27 fighter

Drake, a 42-year-old enthusiast from Hampshire in the UK, told the Mail he was visiting the desert surrounding Area 51 on the day of the Presidential election, and hoped to see some fast jets involved in a training mission. Instead, what he photographed appears to have been Russian Su-27 involved in a combat training with a US fighter jet.

Drake said the Russian jet was a Su-27P Flanker-B, which has never been officially imported into the United States.

Drake said the aircraft was a Russian SU-27P Flanker-B with Soviet style camouflague

The jets performed a series of high-speed passes during an intense training mission

“This aircraft was anonymous and unidentifiable, apart from the Soviet style camouflage it wore,” he said. “After they finished their mission they flew into Groom Lake’s highly restricted airspace.” Shooting from Tikaboo Valley, near Groom Lake (Area 51’s official name), Drake had to push his camera zoom to the limit to document the incident.

Drake’s location outside Area 51

He said: “The planes were operating above 20,000 feet, and a couple of miles east of me, so the distance between me and the planes was at least six miles. They were literally specks in the sky, but of course that’s the reason that no-one has photographed them before.

Drake believes these are the first pictures of a single-seat Sukhoi Su27 Flanker – on a training mission or otherwise – inside the United States.

‘Initially, during the mission, the aircraft were just outside of Area 51 airspace.

“The Americans practice air to air combat with Russian aircraft to give them an advantage in combat. They also try out new weapons systems on aircraft to test their effectiveness against a bona fide Russian-built target.”

According to Drake, “the Flanker is rumoured to have been flying from Groom Lake for nearly 20 years, but no-one has ever managed a definitive photograph to prove it does exist. This sequence of photos is the first proof that the Americans are flying this aircraft, which is the premier Air Defence Fighter in use with the Russian and Chinese Air Forces.”

He continued: “Things went quiet around 1300. Very quiet. Nothing moved for two hours and I was thinking of moving to another vantage point, such as Queen City Summit, or maybe the Powerlines Overlook. Then the sound of jet noise caught my attention and that’s when I got my first sight of a Groom Lake Su-27 Flanker.”

<img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/su%208_0.jpg" …read more

Source: US F-16 Photographed In Mock Dogfight With Russian Su-27 Above Area 51

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By Tyler Durden

Five days ago, Wikileaks' Founder Julian Assange agreed to US extradition if Chelsea Manning was granted clemency by President Obama…

If Obama grants Manning clemency Assange will agree to US extradition despite clear unconstitutionality of DoJ case https://t.co/MZU30SlfGK

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 12, 2017

This evening we got confirmation that Obama has indeed granted Manning clemency.

By way of background, we noted previously, Assange has been living in the Ecuadoran embassy in London since June 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden to face sexual assault allegations. The Australian former computer hacker said he fears Stockholm will in turn extradite him to the US, where he angered Washington over WikiLeaks' publication of thousands of US military and diplomatic documents leaked by former US soldier Manning. The full details of which can be found here…

VICTORY: Obama commutes Chelsea Manning sentence from 35 years to 7. Release date now May 17. Background: https://t.co/HndsbVbRer

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 17, 2017

Interestingly, Assange's offer comes just days after his uncharacteristically emotional interview with Sean Hannity…

“I have been detained illegally, without charge for six years, without sunlight, lots of spies everywhere. It's tough… but that's the mission I set myself on. I understand the kind of game that's being played – big powerful actors will try and take revenge...it's a different thing for my family – I have young children, under 10 years old, they didn't sign up for that… and I think that is fundamentally unjust… my family is innocent, they didn't sign up for that fight.“

And it is clear from the initial response from Wikileaks that Assange's biggest fear – and perhaps rightly so – was receiving a fair trial under an Obama/Lynch justice system…

Assange is confident of winning any fair trial in the US. Obama's DoJ prevented public interest defense & fair jury. https://t.co/Mb6gXlz7QS

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 17, 2017

Mr Assange added:

Assange: “Thank you to everyone who campaigned for Chelsea Manning's clemency. Your courage & determination made the impossible possible.”

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 17, 2017

Followed by a full statement.

Statement from Mr. Julian Assange

I welcome President Obama's decision to commute the sentence of Ms. Chelsea Manning from 35 years to time served, but Ms. Manning should never have been convicted in the first place. Ms. Manning is a hero, whose bravery should have been applauded not condemned. Journalists, publishers, and their sources serve the public interest and promote democracy by distributing authentic information on key matters such as human rights abuses, and illegal acts by government officials. They should not be prosecuted. In order for democracy and the rule of law to thrive, the Government should immediately end its war on whistleblowers and publishers, such as Wikileaks and myself.

Mr. Assange's lawyers also made a statement

Mr. Assange welcomes President Obama's decision to commute Chelsea Manning's sentence. Whistleblowers like Chelsea Manning serve the public interest. She should never have been prosecuted and sentenced to decades in prison. She should be released immediately. Likewise, …read more

Source: Julian Assange Responds Amid Growing Extradition Speculation

    

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Wilbur Ross has agreed to sell some — but not all — of his sprawling web of assets should the billionaire be confirmed as Donald Trump’s commerce secretary. …read more

Source: Wilbur Ross is keeping some of his empire

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

This week, Congress passed a budget calling for increasing federal spending and adding $1.7 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. Most so-called “fiscal conservatives” voted for this big-spending budget because it allows Congress to repeal some parts of Obamacare via “reconciliation.” As important as it is to repeal Obamacare, it does not justify increasing spending and debt.

It is disappointing, but not surprising, that the Obamacare repeal would be used to justify increasing spending. Despite sequestration’s minor (and largely phony) spending cuts, federal spending has increased every year since Republicans took control of the House of Representatives. Some will attribute this to the fact that the Republican House had to negotiate with a big-spending Democratic president — even though federal spending actually increased by a greater percentage the last time Republicans controlled the White House and Congress than it did under President Obama.

The history of massive spending increases under unified Republican control of government is likely to repeat itself. During the presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump came out against reducing spending on “entitlements.” He also called for a variety of spending increases, including spending one trillion dollars on infrastructure.

One positive part of the infrastructure proposals is their use of tax credits to encourage private sector investments. Hopefully this will be the first step toward returning responsibility for building and maintaining our nation’s infrastructure to the private sector.

Unfortunately, the administration appears likely to support increased federal spending on “shovel-ready” jobs. Claims that federal spending helps grow the economy rely on the fallacy of that which is not seen. While everyone sees the jobs and economic growth created by government infrastructure projects, no one sees the greater number of jobs that could have been created had the government not taken the resources out of the hands of private businesses, investors, and entrepreneurs. Despite what some conservatives seem to think, this fallacy applies equally to Republican and Democrat spending.

President-elect Trump has criticized the past two administrations’ reckless foreign policy, and he has publicly shamed the powerful Lockheed Martin company for wasting taxpayer money. Yet, he continues to support increasing the military budget and has called for increased military intervention in the Middle East.

The fact is the United States already spends too much on militarism. Not only does the United States spend more on the military than the combined military budgets of the next eight highest spending countries, but Pentagon waste exceeds the total Russian military budget.

America can no longer afford to waste trillions of dollars on a militaristic foreign policy. Donald Trump should follow-up his attacks on wasteful military spending by dramatically changing our foreign policy and working to cut the Pentagon's bloated budget.

If the new administration and Congress increase spending, they will need the Federal Reserve to monetize the growing debt. The need for an accommodative monetary policy gives the Federal Reserve and its allies in Congress and in the deep state leverage over the administration. …read more

Source: Ron Paul Asks "Will Trump Continue The Bush-Obama ‘Big Spending’ Legacy?"

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Ludwig von Mises via The Mises Institute,

Profits are never normal. They appear only where there is a maladjustment, a divergence between actual production and production as it should be in order to utilize the available material and mental resources for the best possible satisfaction of the wishes of the public. They are the prize of those who remove this maladjustment; they disappear as soon as the maladjustment is entirely removed. In the imaginary construction of an evenly rotating economy there are no profits. There the sum of the prices of the complementary factors of production, due allowance being made for time preference, coincides with the price of the product.

The greater the preceding maladjustments, the greater the profit earned by their removal. Maladjustments may sometimes be called excessive. But it is inappropriate to apply the epithet “excessive” to profits.

People arrive at the idea of excessive profits by confronting the profit earned with the capital employed in the enterprise and measuring the profit as a percentage of the capital. This method is suggested by the customary procedure applied in partnerships and corporations for the assignment of quotas of the total profit to the individual partners and shareholders. These men have contributed to a different extent to the realization of the project and share in the profits and losses according to the extent of their contribution.

But it is not the capital employed that creates profits and losses. Capital does not “beget profit” as Marx thought. The capital goods as such are dead things that in themselves do not accomplish anything. If they are utilized according to a good idea, profit results. If they are utilized according to a mistaken idea, no profit or losses result. It is the entrepreneurial decision that creates either profit or loss. It is mental acts, the mind of the entrepreneur, from which profits ultimately originate. Profit is a product of the mind, of success in anticipating the future state of the market. It is a spiritual and intellectual phenomenon.

The absurdity of condemning any profits as excessive can easily be shown. An enterprise with a capital of the amount c produced a definite quantity of p which it sold at prices that brought a surplus of proceeds over costs of s and consequently a profit of n per cent. If the entrepreneur had been less capable, he would have needed a capital of 2c for the production of the same quantity of p. For the sake of argument we may even neglect the fact that this would have necessarily increased costs of production as it would have doubled the interest on the capital employed, and we may assume that s would have remained unchanged. But at any rate s would have been confronted with 2c instead of c and thus the profit would have been only n/2 per cent of the capital employed. The “excessive” profit would have been reduced to a “fair” level. Why? Because the entrepreneur was less efficient and because his lack of …read more

Source: In A Free Market, No Profit Is "Excessive"

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By Tyler Durden

As we observed in yesterday morning’s market wrap, while US market were taking the day off for the MLK holiday, China was busy defending an accelerating selloff across its stock markets.

During Monday trading, having traded quietly lower for the past few days, Chinese stocks tumbled in early trading on the mainland and in Hong Kong’s offshore market amid weakness in Asian equities. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 2.2% to head for its fifth loss in as many days, its longest losing streak since Aug. 2015.However a sudden bout of late afternoon buying sent the loss down to just -0.3%, on speculation China’s national team was once again back in the markets.

The exact same pattern emerged overnight as well:

Very much like the previous day, China’s CSI 300 Index climbed 0.2% on Tuesday, after earlier losing as much as 0.8%. On Monday, the index recovered from an intraday drop of 1.7% to close little changed, with some traders speculating the afternoon rally was caused by state buying.

We now have confirmation that, indeed, after a long hiatus, it was precisely the “national team” that had made an appearance, and was propping up stocks with an explicit directive: don’t let stocks drop during Xi Jinping’s trip to Davos. It is almost as if it is a rite of passage for Davos participants to demonstrate how effective they are at manipulating their stock market.

As Bloomberg reports today, China has taken “steps” to support its stock market this week – by which it means ordered various central bank conduits to buy stocks during selloffs – “according to people familiar with the matter, as President Xi Jinping’s appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos puts Asia’s largest economy in the global spotlight.”

Apparently China did not question what it would look like once it emerged that it is manipulating its market to give the false impression of stability at a time when Xi was addressing Davos, and expounding on the glorious benefits of globalization and liberalization… if not so much for asset price discovery or the yuan, of course.

State-owned investors bought shares to steady the market on Monday, while some funds were guided on Tuesday not to sell holdings with big weightings in benchmark indexes, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. China’s securities regulators asked funds and brokerages to trade prudently this week and directed exchanges to report any abnormal transactions, the people said.

To be sure, Chinese authorities have traditionally intervened in markets before and during events of political significance, with government funds stepping in to boost stocks before a key meeting of the National People’s Congress last year and before a 2015 military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the World War II victory over Japan.

“China is doing this probably because it wants to paint an image of positivity as President Xi attends Davos,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. Stocks will continue …read more

Source: China Orders No Market Selloffs During President’s Davos Trip

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