Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Will Trump ‘evict’ press corps from White House?
A report in Esquire raises the possibility of the White House press corps being “evicted” by the Trump administration. One senior official reportedly said they believe the media should be treated as the ‘opposition party.’ …read more
Source: Will Trump ‘evict’ press corps from White House?
IMF: Trump stimulus to boost U.S. growth
U.S. economic growth is set to get a lift from stimulus measures under Donald Trump’s presidency, the International Monetary Fund predicts. …read more
Source: IMF: Trump stimulus to boost U.S. growth
Oil Slides After Saudis Suggest Early End To OPEC Deal
By Tyler Durden
Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after Saudi Arabia says OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year, potentially leaving its aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished.
As Bloomberg reports, OPEC and Russia won’t need to prolong output cuts beyond June because the agreed reductions will have already ended the oversupply in world crude markets, Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih said in Abu Dhabi on Monday. However, ending the deal by mid-year and restoring production would mean the surplus just starts building again, thwarting OPEC’s ambition of whittling down bloated oil inventories.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that draining off a stockpile “overhang” of more than 300 million barrels — enough to supply China for almost a month — was the main aim of supply curbs agreed with Russia and other producers. Twenty-four nations signed up to a joint cutback of 1.8 million barrels a day on Dec. 10.
If they extend the deal for six months beyond its scheduled expiry in June, that surplus will be entirely eliminated by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency. If they don’t extend the deal, and restore output to previous levels, about two-thirds of that glut will remain in place.
“If the reduction is of such short duration, this will hardly be sufficient to balance the oil market,” said analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg in Frankfurt. “In this case the market participants who bet on rising prices will probably withdraw from the market, putting corresponding pressure on prices.”
And that is what we are seeing begin to occur on this illiquid US holiday trading day…
When OPEC announced its original deal in Vienna, the group said it could be extended for another six months to “take into account prevailing market conditions and prospects.” Al-Falih said OPEC will reassess the situation when it meets again and the group’s members have said they’re will to extend the pact if necessary.
Source: Oil Slides After Saudis Suggest Early End To OPEC Deal
8 men are richer than 3.6B people combined
Eight men now control as much wealth as the world’s poorest 3.6 billion people, according to a new report from Oxfam International. …read more
Source: 8 men are richer than 3.6B people combined
Can Marine Le Pen Pull Off French Election Stunner? Germany Loses No Matter Who Wins
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.
I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.
Current Polls
Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.
Top Five candidates
- Marine le Pen: National Front – Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration – 25%
- François Fillon: Republicans – Center Right – 24%
- Emmanuel Macron: En Marche! – Socialist – 17%
- Manuel Valls: Socialist – 11%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Left Front – Socialist – 13%
In France, the winners of each party square off in around one of national elections. If no one gets 50% of the vote, the top two square off in round two.
With about 25% or so solid votes, le Pen is likely to make it to the second round. The others battle to see who comes up against le Pen.
Eurointelligence Reports
January 13: Yesterday night the seven candidates for the left primaries had their first debate. It was sometimes painful to watch and it is not clear how much the audience took home from the long catalogue of measures the candidates were quizzed about. All tried to differentiate themselves from François Hollande, and lashed out against the common enemy François Fillon. All were eager to show how presidential they are and how well they represent the real socialist heart. Though it did not look like they succeeded. One blogger wrote that there was one irreconcilable division, that is between the candidates and their audience.
François Fillon, meanwhile, has his own rebellion to deal with. Laurent Wauquiez, Christian Estrosi, and other ex-Sarkozists, insist on making their own mark and call for changes to Fillon’s programme. When Fillon made his big appearance in Nice, Estrosi told everyone in front of the presidential candidate that he is not a “Filloniste”. Laurent Wauquiez, who was fired by Fillon, is leading this mini-revolt. He recently called for a de-taxation of supplementary working hours, one of Sarkozy’s key measures, which is absolutely not in the Fillon’s programme, writes Marianne. Brice Hortefeux, another Sarkozy ally, said they want to enrich the programme. Fillon, however, remains firm and will not give in to those demands. His campaign chief dismissed those efforts as coming from bad losers or small players. The risk is that he may alienate the Sarkozy wing, though.
January 12: For Macron, no politics goes without narrative and no narrative without ideal. So, what is his ideal? Some friends call him a real libertarian, others a real democrat, who has yet to find a socially empathetic narrative. In 2015 he outlined his three dreams – equality, Europe and industry. When it comes to Europe, he may well compare with Jacques Delors, who like him was not loved by the Socialist party and made his way. But this comparison only holds on Europe. Macron’s economic ideal is inspired by new-Keynesian thinking, and the idea that social improvement is achieved by eliminating unjust rents that …read more
Source: Can Marine Le Pen Pull Off French Election Stunner? Germany Loses No Matter Who Wins
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A Hint of Gold Backwardation – Rising Gold Scarcity
Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising.
What could cause this? One thing is for sure. It is not about the quantity of dollars. This theory is as popular as ever, despite the absolute lack of a rising gold price from September 2011-2016. The quantity of dollars has risen steadily since then.
We write much about the frequent cases when traders place big bets on something which is wrong. But the fact of their big bets drives up the price. Suppose speculators were betting on a big increase in the quantity of dollars under Trump. Then we would see a rising price alright, but we would see a rising basis—our measure of abundance of gold to the market. This cannot explain the current market either.
So what can? Recall Keith Weiner’s gold backwardation thesis. In times of stress or crisis, it is always the bid, and never the offer, which is withdrawn. Suppose the US Geological Survey were to make a dire announcement—THEY ARE NOT SAYING THIS, SO DO NOT MISCONSTRUE!! Suppose they said that there will be an earthquake in LA, an 11 on the Richter Scale. Nothing taller than a dollhouse will be left standing.
There would be no lack of offers to sell real estate. Some would hold out hope of getting “their price”. Others would generously offer to discount it 10% or 25% from the previous level.
However, what would be conspicuously absent would be a bid. Most likely from Santiago Chile to Vancouver, British Columbia and as far east as the Mississippi River. At least until the quake hit and the danger was passed.
It is gold that will withdraw its bid on the dollar. The bid sputtered 8 years ago, and intermittently since then. Then it has mostly been steady in the past few years. And now there is a hint of it, in the February gold contract. It’s just what we call temporary backwardation—a short term blip confined to the near contract that is heading into expiry.
However, we think it is notable. It means someone or many someones are switching their preference to gold, in spite of the higher yields available in the market now. Or maybe because of it. This preference, unlike speculators buying futures with leverage, is not about betting on price. It is about safety. Gold, unlike a bond, does not default.
Is this the explanation, and the whole explanation? We don’t know. We can only report that there is a change in behavior in the market. Whereas previously—this was the pattern for years—a rising price was accompanied by rising basis. And now we have rising price and the cobasis is rising instead. …read more
Source: A Hint of Gold Backwardation – Rising Gold Scarcity
Prosecutors seek to arrest Samsung heir
Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong is the latest high-profile figure to face potential charges in a massive scandal that has rocked South Korea. …read more
Source: Prosecutors seek to arrest Samsung heir
Davos marks the emergence of a confident China
Xi Jinping is making his first appearance at the World Economic Forum. China is ready to fill a vacuum in global leadership. …read more
Source: Davos marks the emergence of a confident China
Welcome To One of The Most Pivotal Weeks In Modern American History
Many are anticipating that a wonderful new era of peace and prosperity is just a few days away, but others are using terms such as “civil unrest” and “civil war” for what they believe is about to happen in America. Without a doubt, Donald Trump is one of the most electrifying politicians in modern American history, but he is also one of the most polarizing. So will the next four years bring us together as a nation, or will anger, frustration, strife and discord tear us much farther apart? It is being projected that extremely large crowds of supporters will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, but the mainstream media is also reporting that “hundreds of thousands of protesters” are on their way to Washington. Many on the far left are hoping to turn Trump’s inauguration into one of the biggest riots in U.S. history, but thousands of law enforcement personnel are going to do their very best to prevent that from happening.
There are sites on the Internet that are literally counting down the hours until Barack Obama leaves office. Knowing that his time is short, Obama seems determined to squeeze as much “change” out of his final hours as he possibly can. Just check out what the Washington Post says that he was able to accomplish on just one day last week…
On Thursday alone, the administration designated three new national monuments and expanded another two in sites including a forest in the Pacific Northwest and a school for freed slaves in South Carolina; took away one of the special immigration privileges Cubans arriving in the United States without visas have enjoyed for 50 years; announced sanctions designations against 18 senior Syrian officials for their role in the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon in 2014 and 2015; awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Vice President Biden; and accused Fiat Chrysler of cheating on national emission standards for some of its diesel trucks.
And in the last few days of his presidency, there is a great deal of concern about how much more damage he may be able to do on his way out the door. Late last week he enraged the Russians by moving U.S. troops into Poland, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova is warning that Obama still has a few more days left to “destroy the world”…
Zakharova charged that “Obama and his illiterate foreign policy team have dealt a crushing blow to America’s prestige and leadership” and described his administration as “a bunch of geopolitical losers, enraged and shortsighted.”
Obama’s administration still has a few days left to “destroy the world,” Zakharova wrote.
However, there is one piece of good news. According to the Jerusalem Post, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Obama will not support any additional action against Israel at the UN Security Council before Trump is inaugurated.
Of course politicians lie all the time, and John …read more
Source: Welcome To One of The Most Pivotal Weeks In Modern American History
