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Conservative Mick Mulvaney has taken both Democrats and Republicans to task for being fiscally profligate. Here’s a look at where he may clash with Trump on the key budget issues he’d oversee if confirmed as White House budget director. …read more

Source: Can Trump, budget director get on the same page?

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President Trump will meet with British Prime Minister Theresa May to talk about forging a trade deal between the two nations. …read more

Source: Trump wants a U.K. trade deal. Don’t hold you breath

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President Trump’s decision to jettison the largest proposed free trade deal in history leaves the door open for Beijing to push its own brand of trade. …read more

Source: Trump’s decision to kill TPP leaves door open for China

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Carl Icahn, a vocal supporter of Donald Trump, congratulated the president for his inauguration speech and said that the ‘dangerous slide towards socialism is over.’ But some noted that the stock market did just fine under Obama. …read more

Source: Carl Icahn declares end to ‘socialism’ in U.S

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Robert Schiller, originally posted op-ed at The Guardian,

Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict.

In the US, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets.

One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump is a business genius who can apply his deal-making skills to make America great again.

The other is a naturally occurring illusion: the proximity of Dow 20,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been above 19,000 since November, and countless news stories have focused on its flirtation with the 20,000 barrier – which might be crossed by the time this commentary is published. Whatever happens, Dow 20,000 will still have a psychological impact on markets.

Trump has never been clear and consistent about what he will do as president. Tax cuts are clearly on his agenda, and the stimulus could lead to higher asset prices. Lower corporate taxes are naturally supposed to lead to higher share prices, while cuts in personal income tax might lead to higher home prices (though possibly offset by other changes in the tax system).

But it is not just Trump’s proposed tax changes that plausibly affect market psychology. The US has never had a president like him. Not only is he an actor, like Ronald Reagan; he is also a motivational writer and speaker, a brand name in real estate, and a tough deal maker. If he ever reveals his financial information, or if his family is able to use his influence as president to improve its bottom line, he might even prove to be successful in business.

The closest we can come to Trump among former US presidents might be Calvin Coolidge, an extremely pro-business tax cutter. “The chief business of the American people is business,” Coolidge famously declared, while his treasury secretary, Andrew Mellon – one of America’s wealthiest men – advocated tax cuts for the rich, which would “trickle down” in benefits to the less fortunate.

The US economy during the Coolidge administration was very successful, but the boom ended badly in 1929, just after Coolidge stepped down, with the stock-market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression. During the 1930s, the 1920s were looked upon wistfully, but also as a time of fakery and cheating.

Of course, history is never destiny, and Coolidge is only one observation – hardly a solid basis for a forecast. Moreover, unlike Trump, both Coolidge and Mellon were levelheaded and temperate in their manner.

But add to the Trump effect all the attention paid to Dow 20,000, and we have the makings of a powerful illusion. On 10 November 2016, two days after Trump was elected, the Dow Jones average hit a new record high – and has since set 16 more daily records, all trumpeted by news media.

That sounds like important news for Trump. In fact, the Dow had already hit nine record highs …read more

Source: Schiller Warns US Stock Market ‘Trump Effect’ "Is Based On Illusion"

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Foxconn chairman Terry Gou told reporters that the company is contemplating building a U.S. factory that could create 30,000 to 50,000 jobs. …read more

Source: Apple supplier Foxconn could create 50,000 U.S. jobs

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By Tyler Durden

Back in late 2015, when the Chinese stock bubble had violently burst and was suffering daily moves of 10% in either direction as retail traders scrambled to get out of what until recently was a “sure thing”, Beijing did what it does best, and found a convenient scapegoat on which to blame the market crash – which was function of the country’s relentless debt bubble and lack of trading regulations – in late 2015 it arrested one of the most prominent hedge fund traders, Xu Xiang, also known as “hedge fund brother No. 1” and “China’s Carl Icahn” for his phenomenal, and rigged, winning record in the stock market, who ran the Shanghai-based Zexi Investment.

Which is not to say that Xu wasn’t engaged in shady activites: while the country’s stock prices plummeted in 2015, Zexi’s investments earned an average 218%, far more than the second-most profitable player, Shen Zhou Mu Fund, which reported a 94% yield, according to market analysis website Licai.com.

Xu was detained by police in November 2015 on the highway between Shanghai and Ningbo, in an arrest that was captured in photographs and widely circulated on social media. Police later froze over $1 billion of shares in listed companies with connections to Xu’s investments, according to exchange filings by those firms. Xu, born in 1976, started investing at high school in the eastern city of Ningbo, according to the official People’s Daily. Skipping university, he instead became a professional investor, accumulating over 4 billion yuan in personal wealth and managing tens of billions of yuan, the People’s Daily reported in 2015.

Fast forward to today, when China sentenced the former billionaire hedge fund manager to five and a half years in prison for stock-price manipulation, in one of the country’s most high-profile cases following the 2015 market rout. Xu Xiang, founder of Shanghai-based asset management firm Zexi Investment, and two associates were convicted of driving up share prices, the Qingdao Intermediate People’s Court in Shandong province said on Monday. Xu was also fined 11 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), sources who attended the court hearing said. It is the highest-ever fine for an individual committing a financial crime in China.

Wang Wei, owner of three asset-management companies, received a three-year prison term and was slapped with a 1 billion yuan fine. And Zhu Yong, the third defendant, was sentenced to two years behind bars with a three-year reprieve. He was told to pay 50 million yuan in penalties. The three men shared insider tips and connections to high-ranking executives, people with knowledge of the matter told Caixin.

Demonstrating he has learned from the most successful US hedge funds, Xu and the two investment firm managers were accused of colluding with senior executives of 13 listed companies from 2010 to 2015 to issue positive news about companies and even purchasing stocks in large quantities — all in a bid to boost prices and lure retail investors. The fund managers and executives then dumped their stock at the higher prices.

Between 2010 …read more

Source: "China’s Carl Icahn" Hedge Fund Billionaire Sentenced To Five And A Half Years In Prison

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