2,000 Finnish citizens getting guaranteed income
The Finnish government is giving 2,000 citizens a guaranteed income, regardless of their wealth or employment status. …read more
Source: 2,000 Finnish citizens getting guaranteed income
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Iron Ore Stocks At Chinese Ports Hit New Record Highs: Why This Is An "Ominous Sign" For Prices
By Tyler Durden
As Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson points out, Iron Ore stocks at Chinese ports just hit a new record high in the last week of 2016, even as the spot price of iron ore staged a dramatic comeback over 2016, closing near the highs of the year. However, as Johnson notes, if history is any precedent, such record stocks “carry an ominous sign for iron ore prices.” Here’s why.
After jumping by the biggest 1-wk increase since Oct. ’15, +2.7% w/w, iron ore inventories at Chinese ports reached a new record high of 114.0Mmt on 12/30.
Using implied consumption as a denominator (i.e., the latest data on daily pig iron output x 1.6), days of inventory for port stocks topped 38.6, the most in 2-yrs.
While inventory restocking at China’s ports likely helped support prices, w/ an intense destock likely in the offing, Johnon sees “downside risk to prices as imminent.”
How much? Well, using the last big peak-to-trough cycle as a guide, 7/4/14-6/26/15, port stocks & avg. wkly spot prices fell 30.2% & 35.5%, respectively. Further, since the 7/4/14 peak, stocks/prices shared a 65% correl. Assuming stocks fall just half as much as in the last down cycle, using a simple regression, we est., ceteris paribus, prices could quickly fall back to $61/mt (Ex. 3).
One of the reasons cited for the massive stockpiling of iron ore is that China is planning a vast expansion of its railway network to support growth, with new lines estd. to span >18K miles (link).
However, as Axiom boldly notes, “China’s Massive Railway Expansion Plan ? a Panacea for Iron Ore or Steel Demand.“
While this would surely benefit jobs, Axiom estimates with a few assumptions, that the incremental benefit to aggregate steel demand would be a mere 4.8Mmtpa, or just 59bps over 806.7Mmt of estd. ’16 production.
How does it get here? Using publicly available data from WAB (NC) as a blueprint (link), assuming avg. weights for: (1) rails are 128lbs./yd., (2) joint bars are 90lbs./pair, (3) track bolts are 80lbs./yd., & (4) spikes are 59lbs./yd., Johnson estimates avg. steel demand of 448mt/mile of track (Ex. 4).
The firm further, and rather aggressively, assumes this expansion is completed in just 3.5yrs & all rail lines are double-track. What’s more, w/ ~90% of steel made in blast furnaces, we est. this incremental steel demand would translate to 6.9Mmtpa of iron ore demand, or just 59bps against an estd. 1,165Mmt of gross ’16 supply (i.e., 141Mmt in domestic output + 1,024Mmt of imports [Ex. 5]).
Bottom line: according to Axiom, both China’s iron ore demand, and the recent price surge, have topped out, especially following recent Beijing summits in which the topic of deflating China’s various bubbles is once again front and center. Finally, the recent downturn in the Baltic Dry Index may suggest that the spot price correction is set to arrive sooner than many expected.
Bitcoin Surges Above $1,000 As China Unveils New Capital Controls
By Tyler Durden
As noted yesterday, for the first time in three years, and only the second time in history, bitcoin rose above $1,000 in Yuan-denominated Chinese trading, however it was limited to the lower side of this “round number” psychological barrier in US trading, as BTC flirted with $999.99 for most of the day on the popular Coinbase exchange, without crossing it.
Overnight, however, Chinese demand proved too great and US markets had no choice but to arb the difference. So with Bitcoin trading in China at an implied price of over $1,050 at this moment, bitcoin finally soared above $1,000 in the US as well, trading just around $1,024 on Coinbase as of this moment.
Various catalysts for the recent surge have been cited, chief among which is the ongoing crackdown against cash in India providing a new source of demand for bitcoin. However, the most immediate driver of the recent burst in Chinese demand originates, not unexpectedly, from China where Beijing over the weekend implemented even more of what we have said since September 2015 will keep pushing bitcoin relentlessly higher: capital controls.
Recall that as we noted over the weekend, in order to further curb capital outflows, Chinese banks will be required to report all yuan-denominated cash transactions exceeding 50,000 yuan (around 7,100 US dollars) to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), down from the current level of 200,000 yuan, according to a PBOC document released on Friday. Cross-border transfers more than 200,000 yuan by individuals will also be subject to the report process. In terms of foreign currencies, the report threshold remains at the equivalent of 10,000 US dollars for both cash transactions and overseas transfers.
How do we know that this latest PBOC intervention in capital markets was merely the latest form of capital controls? Because the PBOC immediately said it wasn’t.
As Xinhua reported overnight, “the policy stoked worries that the government is trying to impose capital control in a disguised form.”
“It is not capital control at all,” central bank economist Ma Jun said.
Actually, imposing limits on capital movement, i.e. controls, is by definition just that.
Logic, however, did not prevent Ma from continuing on a tangent, and he “explained” that the responsibility of report will be assumed by financial institutions, and there will be neither extra documentation nor official approval procedures for businesses and individuals. “They will not feel any change,” Ma added. He also noted that each person’s current annual foreign exchange purchase quota of 50,000 US dollars is unchanged, and normal activities, ranging from business investment and operation abroad to individuals’ overseas trips and study, will not be affected, Ma said.
The PBOC has said the move aims to improve monitoring of money laundering, financing for terrorists, graft and tax fraud, instead of targeting common business activities. Appealing to the Chinese savers not to withdraw their money out of fears of even more capital controls, Ma said that the world’s major countries also have similar rules, citing that transactions worth 10,000 US dollars …read more
Source: Bitcoin Surges Above $1,000 As China Unveils New Capital Controls
Islamic State Claims Responsibility For Istanbul Nightclub Attack As Manhunt For Gunman Continues
By Tyler Durden
One week after a video emerged of the Berlin Christmas market truck killer, Anis Amri, pledging allegiance to ISIS, on Monday the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the deadly New Year’s Day terrorist attack in Istanbul that killed at least 39 people and wounded dozens more, claiming the operation had targeted Turkey in revenge for Turkish military operations against the organization in Syria, a similar justification used by the Turkish offduty policemen to assassinate the Russian ambassador in Turkey in December.
The statement was distributed by Nashir News, a channel that publishes Islamic State propaganda, and which had called for followers of the extremist group to target holiday celebrations days before the attack the WSJ reported. In the statement, the Islamic State described the Reina nightclub, where many foreigners as well as Turks were killed, as a gathering point for Christians celebrating their “apostate holiday”.
“The apostate Turkish government should know that the blood of Muslims shed with airplanes and artillery fire will, with God’s permission, ignite a fire in their own land,” the Islamic State declaration said. There was no immediate comment from Turkish officials according to Reuters.
The jihadist group has been blamed for at least half a dozen attacks on civilian targets in Turkey over the past 18 months but, other than targeted assassinations, this is the first time it has directly claimed any of them. It made the statement on one of its Telegram channels, a method used after attacks elsewhere. Islamic State most recently killing more than 50 people in August at a wedding in Gaziantep by the Syrian border. Within days of that bombing, Turkey launched its operation inside Syria. Previously, the extremist organization struck Istanbul’s biggest airport, killing more than 40 people in June during an attack waged with bombs and firearms.
Attacks in Turkey have accelerated in recent weeks: on Dec. 10, two bombs claimed by Kurdish militants exploded outside a soccer stadium in Istanbul, killing 44 people. A security guard who survived that attack was killed at Reina. A car bomb killed at least 13 soldiers and wounded 56 when it ripped through a bus carrying off-duty military personnel in the central city of Kayseri a week later, an attack Erdogan also blamed on Kurdish militants. Islamic State’s Amaq website said the group was behind a car bomb attack that killed 11 people and wounded 100 in the city of Diyarbakir in November, but Turkish authorities denied this and said Kurdish militants carried out the attack. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot dead as he gave a speech in Ankara on Dec. 19 by an off-duty police officer who shouted “Don’t forget Aleppo” and “Allahu Akbar.”
* * *
Meanwhile, on Monday the Turkish police continued the manhunt for the suspected gunman behind the Istanbul nightclub shooting. The lone attacker sprayed bullets into a crowd of revelers who had come from across the Middle East and elsewhere to celebrate at the Reina, a cosmopolitan party spot overlooking the Bosporus.
The …read more
Source: Islamic State Claims Responsibility For Istanbul Nightclub Attack As Manhunt For Gunman Continues
Twitter’s top China executive leaves after 8 months
Kathy Chen, a managing director at the social media firm, is exiting after spending just eight months on the job. …read more
Source: Twitter’s top China executive leaves after 8 months
How A United Iran, Russia, & China Are Changing The World
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,
The two previous articles have focused on the various geopolitical theories, their translations into modern concepts, and practical actions that the United States has taken in recent decades to aspire to global dominance. This segment will describe how Iran, China and Russia have over the years adopted a variety of economic and military actions to repel the continual assault on their sovereignty by the West; in particular, how the American drive for global hegemony has actually accelerated the end of the 'unipolar moment' thanks to the emergence of a multipolar world.
From the moment the Berlin Wall fell, the United States saw a unique opportunity to pursue the goal of being the sole global hegemon. With the end of the Soviet Union, Washington could undoubtedly aspire to planetary domination paying little heed to the threat of competition and especially of any consequences. America found herself the one and only global superpower, faced with the prospect of extending cultural and economic model around the planet, where necessary by military means.
Over the past 25 years there have been numerous examples demonstrating how Washington has had little hesitation in bombing nations reluctant to kowtow to Western wishes. In other examples, an economic battering ram, based on predatory capitalism and financial speculation, has literally destroyed sovereign nations, further enriching the US and European financial elite in the process.
Alliances to Resist
In the course of the last two decades, the relationship between the three major powers of the Heartland, the heart of the Earth, changed radically.
Iran, Russia and China have fully understood that union and cooperation are the only means for mutual reinforcement. The need to fight a common problem, represented by a growing American influence in domestic affairs, has forced Tehran, Beijing and Moscow to resolve their differences and embrace a unified strategy in the common interest of defending their sovereignty.
Events such as the war in Syria, the bombing of Libya, the overthrowing of the democratic order in Ukraine, sanctions against Iran, and the direct pressure applied to Beijing in the South China Sea, have accelerated integration among nations that in the early 1990s had very little in common.
Economic Integration
Analyzing US economic power it is clear that supranational organizations like the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank guarantee Washington’s role as the economic leader. The pillars that support the centrality of the United States in the world economy can be attributed to the monetary policy of the Fed and the function of the dollar as a global reserve currency.
The Fed has unlimited ability to print money to finance further economic power of the private and public sector as well as to pay the bill due for very costly wars. The US dollar plays a central role as the global reserve currency as well as being used as currency for trade. This virtually obliges each central bank to own reserves in US currency, continuing to perpetuate the importance of Washington in the global …read more
Source: How A United Iran, Russia, & China Are Changing The World
U.S. Healthcare Is A Global Outlier (And Not In A Good Way)
By Tyler Durden
Historically, the United States has spent more money than any other country on healthcare.
In the late 1990s, for example, the U.S. spent roughly 13% of GDP on healthcare, compared to about a 9.5% average for all high income countries.
However, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, in recent years, the difference has become more stark. Last year, as Obamacare continued to roll out, costs in the U.S. reached an all-time high of 17.5% of GDP. That’s over $3 trillion spent on healthcare annually, and the rate of spending is expected accelerate over the next decade.
HIGH COSTS, HIGH BENEFIT?
With all that money being poured into healthcare, surely the U.S. must be getting better care in contrast to other high income countries.
At least, that’s what one would think.
Today’s chart comes to us from economist Max Roser (h/t @NinjaEconomics) and it shows the extreme divergence of the U.S. healthcare system using two simple stats: life expectancy vs. health expenditures per capita.
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist
THE DIVERGENCE OF U.S. HEALTHCARE
As you can see, Americans are spending more money – but they are not receiving results using the most basic metric of life expectancy. The divergence starts just before 1980, and it widens all the way to 2014.
It’s worth noting that the 2015 statistics are not plotted on this chart. However, given that healthcare spend was 17.5% of GDP in 2015, the divergence is likely to continue to widen. U.S. spending is now closing in on $10,000 per person.
Perhaps the most concerning revelation from this data?
Not only is U.S. healthcare spending wildly inefficient, but it’s also relatively ineffective. It would be one thing to spend more money and get the same results, but according to the above data that is not true. In fact, Americans on average will have shorter lives people in other high income countries.
Life expectancy in the U.S. has nearly flatlined, and it hasn’t yet crossed the 80 year threshold. Meanwhile, Chileans, Greeks, and Israelis are all outliving their American counterparts for a fraction of the associated costs.
Source: U.S. Healthcare Is A Global Outlier (And Not In A Good Way)
California Democrats Legalize Child Prostitution
By Tyler Durden
A couple of days ago we highlighted some of the ridiculous new state laws that will go into effect across the country starting today (see “Here Are Some Of The Ridiculous New State Laws That Will Take Effect January 1st – Happy New Year!“). And while there was plenty of lunacy noted within the post, apparently we overlooked one of California’s finest achievements of 2016, namely the legalization of child prostitution.
Now, we know what you’re thinking…California’s liberal lawmakers in Sacramento are certainly well left of center and maybe a bit kooky but they would never do something quite that ridiculous. Well, we had the same thought so we decided to track down the actual text of the legislation, Senate Bill No. 1322, and, unfortunately, they did do something that ridiculous.
Below is the first page of SB1322 which notes that while “existing law makes it a crime to solicit or engage in any act of prostitution” SB1322 “would make the above provisions inapplicable to a child under 18 years of age.”
Of course, as the LA Times pointed out, the bill, which was authored by Los Angeles Democrat Holly Mitchell, is founded on the premise that keeping young children out of the juvenile justice system and instead placing them in the hands of Social Services would be better for their ultimate rehabilitation.
Gov. Jerry Brown in 2014 signed legislation placing sex trafficking victims without legal guardians under the authority of the dependency system, which centers on caring for abused and neglected children.
SB 1322 drew the support of a large coalition of advocates who said the bill was a step further in that direction, taking young victims entirely out of the juvenile justice system. But law enforcement officials oppose the move, saying the state’s child welfare system is woefully low on resources.
And while Mitchell’s efforts may be well intentioned, it simply proves once again how completely ignorant our elected officials are to the unintended consequences resulting from the practical application of their ridiculous laws. Certainly anyone with just a modest IQ and a touch of business sense, should be able to quickly deduce that SB 1322 provides a huge incentive for pimps and human traffickers to target underage girls rather than adults. As Travis Allen, a rare California Republican serving in Sacramento, noted in an op-ed published by the Washington Examiner, “immunity from arrest means law enforcement can’t interfere with minors engaging in prostitution — which translates into bigger and better cash flow for the pimps.”
Unfortunately, the reality is that the legalization of underage prostitution suffers from the fatal defect endemic to progressive-left policymaking: it ignores experience, common sense and most of all human nature — especially its darker side.
The unintended but predictable consequence of how the real villains — pimps and other traffickers in human misery — will respond to this new law isn’t difficult to foresee. Pimping and pandering will still be against the law whether it …read more
Source: California Democrats Legalize Child Prostitution
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If There Really Was Evidence Of Russian Hacking, The NSA Would Have It
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by David Spring via TurningPointNews.org,
On December 29, 2016, the Hill posted an article discussing a 13 page report by the FBI and DHS claiming that their 13 page report was “evidence” of Russian hacking in US elections.
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/312132-fbi-dhs-release-report-on-russia-hacking
Wikileaks has repeatedly stated that the source of its leaks was a disgruntled Democratic Party insider.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4034038/Ex-British-ambassador-WikiLeaks-operative-claims-Russia-did-NOT-provide-Clinton-emails-handed-D-C-park-intermediary-disgusted-Democratic-insiders.html
However, President Obama issued a press release on December 29 2016 using the DHS-FBI report to justify increasing sanctions against Russia.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/statement-president-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity
I therefore decided to see what the evidence was of Russian involvement in US Elections. The Hill article linked to this 13 page government press release as its proof of Russian hacking.
https://www.us-cert.gov/sites/default/files/publications/JAR_16-20296.pdf
The government press release written by DHS-FBI did not mention Wikileaks in its report. Nor did the report provide any evidence of Russian hacking in the US elections. Instead, the press release stated that “technical indicators” of Russian hacking were in the “CSV file and XML file attached with the PDF.” However, there was no CSV or XML file or link attached with the PDF. I was eventually able to find these two files at this link.
https://www.us-cert.gov/security-publications/GRIZZLY-STEPPE-Russian-Malicious-Cyber-Activity
To see the evidence of Russian hacking first hand, I downloaded the CSV file and converted it into a spreadsheet. The CSV file and the XML file both contained the same data. Here is the XML link to this data which can be viewed online in a web browser.
https://www.us-cert.gov/sites/default/files/publications/JAR-16-20296.xml
Both files provide a list of 895 “indicators” of Russian Hacking. Unfortunately, nearly all of these indicators are simply IP addresses. In other words, it is a list of 895 servers from from more than 40 countries around the world. But the list also includes a few website domain names. (Domain names are simply the name of the website such as Youtube.com). I looked up these website domain names with the the following tool which tells us who owns the domain names and where they are located:
https://www.whois.net/
My review of these domain names confirmed that none of these domain names have any relationship to Russian government hackers. Here are the results for four of the domain names provided by the DHS and the FBI as evidence of Russian hacking:
ritsoperrol.ru is not in use. It is registered to a private person. The named server hosting the domain is nserver: ns0.xtremeweb.de. This is a German web hosting and consulting company whose address and phone number are publicly listed on their website. It is highly unlikely that Russian hackers would use a public German web host to register and host their domain names.
littlejohnwilhap.ru is not in use and is available to be purchased. It is unlikely that Russian hackers would use a domain name like this to launch a cyber attack on the US.
wilcarobbe.com is taken and is not in use. It is registered to Arsen Ramanov in Groznenskaya Russia. His address, phone number and email address are all publicly listed. It is highly unlikely that Russian hackers …read more
Source: If There Really Was Evidence Of Russian Hacking, The NSA Would Have It
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A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project. This was a completely new direction from his financial crisis books. I wasn’t sure whether it would keep my interest, but the story of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and their research into the psychology of judgement and decision making, creating a cognitive basis for common human errors that arise from heuristics and biases, was an eye opener.
In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others. These rules work well under most circumstances, but they can lead to systematic deviations from logic, probability or rational choice theory. The resulting errors are called “cognitive biases” and many different types have been documented.
Heuristics usually govern automatic, intuitive judgments but can also be used as deliberate mental strategies when working from limited information. Kahneman and Tversky created the heuristics and biases research program, which studies how people make real-world judgments and the conditions under which those judgments are unreliable. Their research challenged the idea that human beings are rational actors, but provided a theory of information processing to explain how people make estimates or choices. Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in behavioral economics.
To put their research into terms the common person can understand, human decision making is extremely flawed due to our biases, feelings, irrational thought processes and beliefs in falsehoods. It’s over-confidence in our decision making ability that causes us the most problems. For the average person this can result in financial hardship, frustration or a premature death.
When high level government officials, bankers or corporate executives make flawed decisions due to their biases, it can mean war, financial disasters, depressions, or disastrous legislation like Obamacare. Hubris, egotism and faulty reasoning, as noted by Mark Twain one hundred and fifty years ago, can kill you and in some cases lead to war and unthinkable levels of death and destruction.
“It’s not what you don’t know that kills you, it’s what you know for sure that ain’t true.” – Mark Twain
In the seven weeks since the election of Donald Trump as our next president, I’ve witnessed the largest case of hindsight bias in world history. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event …read more
Source: A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1
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