2017 – The Year of Banana Skin
By GoldCore
2016 is behind us and we have started a new year with great gusto and no small measure of anxiety. The potential for unknown unknowns turning into banana skins is very high. Right now we are looking at:
- The broad US stock markets & the UK FTSE are breaking new highs
- Investment flows are rotating from Bonds to Equities on the back of a Trump driven reflation outlook
- Donald Trump is President Elect
- The Fed has initiated a long anticipated rise in interest rates
- Global Debt levels as a percentage of GDP has never been higher
- Britain is going through the painful process of divorcing itself from the EU,
- France is facing elections where far right and and anti EU parties may take power
- Italy’s banking system is in crisis with the weight of EUR 300 Billion in bad debts
- Germany’s Merkel is losing core support and the Anti – EU forces are gathering power
- China is being buffeted by global protectionist rhetoric and lacklustre domestic demand, can she manage the domestic discontented?
- Can Trump deliver reflation or are the markets set to be disappointed?
Trump has been elected on with a mandate to shake up the establishment, to protect US jobs and to focus internally. The question is can someone with no political experience, significant conflicts of interest, despised by the right and liberal factions, within the US political establishment, deliver? The short answer is that no one knows, but so far he has proven all is naysayers wrong and you would be a fool to bet against his form. The USD dollar has strengthened to its highest level since 1984 and this will certainly hurt US companies’ capacity to earn from foreign operations and thus suppress GDP. - Can the Fed normalise interest rates?
The Fed has taken that first tentative step and started its long awaited tightening cycle. The concern is with debt levels at such elevated levels, can institutions wishing to refinance do so at newer higher rates and what will this do to debt affordability? - Will Britain and the EU agree an amicable divorce or will it be a nasty drawn-out affair? The EU has appointed a French bureaucrat as its chief negotiator who is seen as a federalist and someone who maybe likely to seek to punish Britain for leaving. On the British side Britain’s ambassador to the EU resigned yesterday. His resignation …read more
Source: 2017 – The Year of Banana Skin
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Tesla falls short of car delivery goal for 2016
Tesla delivered 76,230 cars to customers in 2016, far more than the roughly 50,000 cars it delivered a year earlier. But the company fell short of its goal for 80,000 deliveries. …read more
Source: Tesla falls short of car delivery goal for 2016
Turkey, Russia Unleash Over 100 Airstrikes On ISIS Targets After Nightclub Attack
By Tyler Durden
Following the horrific New Year's Day attack on an Istanbul nightclub which left 39 people dead (which ISIS claimed responsibility for), Turkish jets have carried out a number of airstrikes against suspected ISIS group positions in Syria. Aerial footage released today showed more than 100 suspected militant targets had been hit by Turkey and Russia in separate operations.
Russia began hitting ISIL positions near al-Bab last week after Ankara and Moscow jointly brokered a cease-fire between the regime and opposition groups. Russian support came after Turkey criticized the U.S.-led international coalition for not backing its military offensive against ISIL.
As TVNZ reports, Turkish jets struck eight IS group targets, while tanks and artillery fired upon 103 targets near Al Bab, Anadolu quoted a senior military official as saying.
At least 22 suspected militants were killed and many structures destroyed, the agency added.
Source: Turkey, Russia Unleash Over 100 Airstrikes On ISIS Targets After Nightclub Attack
America’s Lynch Mob ‘Democracy’
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Finian Cunningham via Strategic-Culture.org,
The dark, infamous days of American lynch-mob rule and burning witches at stakes are back as never before. But not in backwater enclaves of benighted bigotry. Oh no, the modern lynch mobs are running amok in Washington’s seat of government, across prime TV and on the editorial pages of its supposed finest newspapers.
It is the effete, self-regarding ruling US elite who are acting like a murderous rabble. The hate-figures are Russian leader Vladimir Putin and incoming president Donald Trump. Both are being lined up to be lynched, one as a foreign enemy, the other as a traitor.
Lynch mob blood-lust is a mere finger pointed, the baying of deranged crowds and the stringing up of some unfortunate from the nearest tree without pause for a fair trial. “Guilty!? shouted with red-faced thunder is all that’s needed. And anyone who dares to question the madding crowd is liable to meet the same grim fate.
Public opinion in the US is being stampeded to accept as unquestioned fact that Russia “attacked American democracy? as Senators like John McCain are claiming on prime time television. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin is accused of being the mastermind behind the alleged cyber attacks, which supposedly subverted the US presidential election in favor of Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Incumbent President Barack Obama, the US “intelligence community? and a consensus of lawmakers on Capitol Hill are all asserting without a flicker of doubt that Russian state-sponsored hackers interfered in the November election. The US mainstream media have abdicated any pretense of independence or journalistic standard by rowing in behind the assertions, stating what are fundamentally tendentious claims as if they are fact. The word “alleged? before the words “Russian hacking? has been shorn from headlines and commentaries. The American lynch mob has decreed Russia as guilty. No due process, no skepticism, no verifiable proof, just stampeding group-think let loose.
Never mind that Moscow has repeatedly rejected the vapid claims, and has demanded verifiable evidence to be presented. Never mind that Washington has failed to provide any verifiable evidence to support its accusations. Never mind that several respected former US intelligence experts, such as William Binney formerly of the NSA, have come forward to dismiss the claims of Russian hacking as preposterous.
The inherent lack of credibility in Washington’s narrative was given a seeming fix when Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats last week. The intention of the sanctions was to brand the word “scumbag? over the Kremlin in the eyes of the world, a US cyber security expert told Reuters. This is more of the same demonization-mentality that resulted in African-Americans being dangled from branches or suspected sorcerers being torched alive by self-righteous American christians.
A second seeming fix to the attenuated “Russian hacker? story came with reports of an alleged attempt to disable the US power grid. The CIA-linked Washington Post broke the story of an electric company in Vermont finding “Russian malware? on …read more
Source: America’s Lynch Mob ‘Democracy’
Bitcoin: The Best Performing Currency For A Second Year In A Row
By Tyler Durden
Bitcoin is no stranger to extreme fluctuations. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, for each of the last four years, the cryptocurrency has either been the best or the worst performing currency – with nothing to be found in between.
Luckily, for those that follow the digital currency closely, those fluctuations were mostly pointed in an upwards direction for 2016. The currency finished the year at $968.23, which is more than double its value from the beginning of the year.
Were any other global currencies able to compete with bitcoin’s strong performance throughout the year?
The following chart compares major currencies (paired with the USD) over 2016:
Brazil’s real rallied 21.9% on the year, the most in seven years. Traders are hoping that center-right President Michel Temer can ease public spending following the departure of Dilma Rousseff.
Russia’s ruble also finished the year with double-digit gains, up 17.8% against the U.S. dollar. This was largely due to the recovery in Brent oil prices, which gained $10/bbl over the course of 2016.
However, a rosier picture for oil was not enough to buoy all producers. Africa’s biggest economy, Nigeria, fell into its first recession in 25 years during the opening half of 2016. Ripple effects from low oil prices caused the Nigerian naira to lose more than one-third of its value throughout the year, making it the worst performing currency (at least officially).
Unofficially, Venezuela’s struggling economy has been pushed to the brink by its ongoing currency crisis. The massive hyperinflation is not reflected in official numbers, since the bolívar is technically “pegged” arbitrarily by the government. Based on black market activity, however, experts estimate that the currency ended the year with inflation of roughly 500%.
Bitcoin in 2017?
Bitcoin is now the best performing currency for two years in a row (2015, 2016):
And in the opening days of 2017, the cryptocurrency has already gained a head start on other global currencies. It passed the vital $1,000 mark in the first days of New Year trading, and could be poised to three-peat for the title of best-performing currency of the year.
To do it again, bitcoin prices would likely need to rise at least 30% on the year, closing in on the $1,300 mark.
Will it be another extreme for 2017 – or will the bitcoin price finally settle for middle ground among other global currencies?
* * *
The Money Project is an ongoing collaboration between Visual Capitalist and Texas Precious Metals that seeks to use intuitive visualizations to explore the origins, nature, and use of money.
What 12 ‘Financial Experts’ Predict For The Economy in 2017 (Spoiler Alert: It’s Ugly)
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,
What lies ahead for the economy this year? Will the economy finally collapse as predicted by many or will the early positive signs in stock markets around the world continue and the global economy will flourish?
I’ve taken a lot of heat for being “gloomy” and for “fear-mongering” lately when I’ve said that President-Elect Trump is inheriting a mess of epic proportions and that we may still be in for a rough financial ride. While I do think that Trump is a far better choice than Hillary Clinton ever could have been, when a situation has been declining as long as ours has, it would take an absolute miracle to turn it around without some pain.
And it turns out, I’m not alone in my concern about the worst for our economic situation during the upcoming year.
Here’s what 12 prominent financial experts are predicting.
Lawrence Yun is the chief economist at The National Association of Realtors? (NAR).
“The budget of many prospective buyers last month was dealt an abrupt hit by the quick ascension of rates immediately after the election. Already faced with climbing home prices and minimal listings in the affordable price range, fewer home shoppers in most of the country were successfully able to sign a contract.” (source)
Gerald Celente is a trends forecaster who has a long history of accuracy. You can find his work at TrendsResearch.com. He predicts:
“We’re forecasting the economy is not going to rebound with the economic proposals that are in place now. . . . The global situation has created an environment for financial panic. The financial panic conditions have been in place for quite a while. What Trump’s victory has done is played it off for a little bit possibly, but on the negative side, you still have the debt and interest rates going up and the debt that has to be paid. On gold, we believe right now is near its bottom.” (source)
James Dale Davidson. He’s the economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.
“There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming – it’s already at our doorstep.” (source)
Marc Faber is an investment advisor and fund manager. He is the publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd. Last month, he wrote:
“2017 will be [when] the US Economic causes a World Economic Collapse! Trump can’t stop a dollar crisis, stock mark crash or gold and silver prices skyrocketing! “. (source)
Faber was also quoted in an article on The Sovereign Investor:
Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.” (source)
Harry Dent, Harvard economist, predicts the safe-haven of gold will be wiped out during 2017. From a conversation with Economy and Markets:
“While many economists will argue that gold …read more
Source: What 12 ‘Financial Experts’ Predict For The Economy in 2017 (Spoiler Alert: It’s Ugly)
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What happened when India trashed its cash
India was plunged into chaos after its two largest rupee notes were banned in early November. What happens now? …read more
Source: What happened when India trashed its cash
Rex Tillerson to put Exxon nest egg in a trust
ExxonMobil and Rex Tillerson have announced their plan to address concerns about the huge nest egg the oil giant has promised to its former CEO. …read more
Source: Rex Tillerson to put Exxon nest egg in a trust
Morgan Stanley is out with a helter skelter note of caution on markets, warning investors to sell the Trump inauguration while u
By The_Real_Fly
Morgan Stanley is out with a helter skelter note of caution on markets, warning investors to sell the Trump inauguration while upping earnings estimates by 18% for 2018 — citing material upside in earnings and multiple contraction.
Plainly, if what Morgan Stanley says comes to fruition, stocks should trade higher on the backs of buybacks, fiscal stimulus, and big corporate tax cuts. However, the sages at Morgan are worried about the recent scale of the rally, coupled with Fed hike fever risks, European uncertainty and of course a rising dollar.
They see no near term catalyst to drive shares after the inauguration and suggest investors start to think about getting out.
U.S. stocks have rallied since the election, but it’s time for investors to start thinking about getting out, possibly timed for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Morgan Stanley said.
“We are worried that there is arrogance in telling people that they should be worried, but to stay bullish for now,” Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Tuesday.
“Part of us thinks we should just sell the inauguration. After all, what incrementally positive and exciting outcomes could be produced in the first few weeks after that?”
“To us, it is WHEN, not IF we should fade this recent reflation trade,” it said.
Morgan Stanley set its base-case target for the S&P 500 at 2300 at end-2017, marking 16.2 times its 2018 earnings forecast, compared with Tuesday’s close at 2257.83.
“We can’t help but think that the Republican sweep has created a more uncertain and volatile outlook for the economy and corporate earnings growth,” it said, citing risks from a more hawkish Federal Reserve, China’s economic slowdown, a much stronger dollar and European political uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley said there was clearly a lot of earnings uncertainty ahead, but it still forecast that the S&P 500 earnings would be about 18 percent higher in 2018 than in 2016.
But it noted that the biggest driver of that increase – more than 50 percent of it — would come from Trump’s promised corporate tax cut to 20 percent from 35 percent. Another 30 percent of the earnings rise over the next two years would likely come from fiscal stimulus and nearly 27 percent from acceleration in share buybacks, it added.
One final note of weariness by Morgan is the possibility that companies might pass on cost savings to consumers following Trump’s tax cuts. This abhorrent specter of ‘competing away’ savings is hateful to Morgan and they feel that could pose as a potential pitfall for markets.
God willing, our valiant and industrious corporations will continue to gouge us and take said tax savings to increase corporate bonuses for C level executives and execute superfluous share buybacks to further enhance their standing at their local country clubs.
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