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Narrative Smashed By Stats – "Most Americans" Did Not Vote For Hillary Clinton

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,

Happy New Year! As we wrap up another successful year of the statistics blog (now with >50k followers), we would be remiss not to recognize some nice friends who are still feeling disappointed over the outcome of the recent U.S. election. It is worth exploring a little more about the election results, based on the most updated voting records. Particularly as the Democrats have pivoted the tête-à-tête from recount and FBI director Comey, to popular vote and Russian president Putin.

What does it mean to now imply that “most Americans” voted for Democratic ideals, given the results (looked at through the prism of a popular vote tabulation) showed Hillary Clinton won by only a couple percent?

It turns out that this sort of conclusion is false, and instead it leads to one party presuming to hold a mighty moral high-ground from their ? voting share?

From a peak in 2008, now through 2016, those not caring to vote (in white below) continuously rose to 45% (from 43%). This is a higher voter apathy than in virtually all other advanced countries. And frankly, it is the largest American segment of 114m (up from 99m). Last-minute undecideds (including me) rose.

Additionally, the voting share for the popular vote “winner” (in blue below) fell to 48% (from 53%), or as a portion of the entire eligible population (as opposed to as a portion of voters) it fell to 26% (from 30%). So on net, even as the population grew, a small fraction voted (and within that an even smaller fraction voted for the popular vote “winner”). This results in Hillary Clinton not epitomizing the views of “most Americans” even if she “won the popular vote”, but rather supported by only 66 million Americans (down from 70 million who voted for Barack Obama in 2008).

I'm with her? Observe their share of the pie, below! Democrats have simply seen a continuously dwindling moral-standing to speak for all Americans, even as the population has grown in the past 8 years.

So now back to my friends who are still feeling sour over the Presidential election and looking for relief. I feel a particular sense of responsibility since my polling probability research was read by millions and continuously solicited/shared by one party, and always properly showed Donald Trump had much stronger odds (~3x) versus what MSM polls or Nate Silver were “scientifically” suggesting. It is worth noting something here at year-end: it's an acutely individual loss, to not see that there are so many tremendous and long-term opportunities we get to enjoy, just living in a great nation such as the United States. We get most things right, most of the time. We get to argue about politics and not worry about a knock on our door in the middle of the night. …read more

Source: Narrative Smashed By Stats – "Most Americans" Did Not Vote For Hillary Clinton

    

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Asshat of the Year Award: Doug Kass

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By The_Real_Fly

kass

It was a year replete with Asshats, men and women making complete fools of themselves — as mankind tends to do on a continuous basis. But, just like in the book Animal Farm, some fools are more equal than others.

Enter Doug Kass.

During the height of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, buoyed by a biased media and rigged polls, Mr. Kass took time out from his day to venture on over to have a chat with the strange man at Bloomberg, who is seemingly obsessed with bow-ties and what college professors are up to, Tom Keene. During his interview, accompanied by an analyst from Citi, Kass predicted, quite effervescently and with ample degrees of energy, that Donald Trump would, in fact, DROP OUT of the race for President of the United States.

Both him and the Citi analyst were practically orgasmic over the specter of such a humiliating occurrence — which would, of course, equate to the ascension of the first female president of the United States, Hillary Clinton.

Watch.

As the campaign carried on, I kept tabs on Mr. Kass to make sure he knew that he owned that video and would one day pay for it.

.@DougKass Wondering if you still believe Trump will drop out of the race? Thanks in advance.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 19, 2016

Today is that day.

Congratulations Mr. Douglass Kass for winning 2016’s Asshat of the Year Award. You certainly earned the distinction.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

…read more

Source: Asshat of the Year Award: Doug Kass

    

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Pentagon Admits US Airstrike On Hospital "May Have Killed Civilians"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Jason Ditz via TheAntiMedia.org,

Adding to concerns about the civilian toll of the US air war against ISIS targets, the Pentagon yesterday admitted that they carried out an airstrike against the parking lot of a Mosul hospital, conceding that they “may have killed civilians” in the attack.

The Pentagon’s Combined Joint Strike Force said in a statement that they were after a van they suspected of carrying ISIS fighters, and they blew it up in the parking lot of what “was later determined to be a hospital.” The US has previously insisted all hospital sites in Mosul were well known and that they were taking extreme care not to hit civilians.

Yet this is the second time this month the US-led coalition has bombed a hospital’s property, with a previous attack deliberately targeting the city’s main hospital complex at the behest of the Iraqi government. The Pentagon insisted at the time they “did not have any reason to believe” they killed any civilians, but conceded they had no idea if there were even patients at the hospital.

The Pentagon has made a habit of dramatically underreporting civilian casualties in the ISIS war, with some reports suggesting that the actual toll of civilians killed by the US may be as many as ten times the “official” figures.

This is the result of the Pentagon largely not investigating allegations of large figures they deem “not credible,” and revising downward the numbers slain in already well-documented incidents by the time they get around to putting them in the reports.

…read more

Source: Pentagon Admits US Airstrike On Hospital "May Have Killed Civilians"

    

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2016 Ended: Saying Goodbye To A Roller-Coaster Year

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Andrei Akulov via Strategic-Culture.org,

The year 2016 was a time of numerous major events providing no clue to what the world will be like in the 21st century. It could be anything – from plunging into devastating wars and economic downturns to unheard of prosperity and stability leaving the present turmoil in the past. There is no clear trend of global development and it’s impossible to say where the world is heading to. At least, not at the threshold of 2017.

The importance of information grew exponentially. 2016 will be remembered as a year of information wars. This factor is becoming increasingly instrumental in international affairs. No information sources are fully trusted anymore but the influence of media outlets and social networks is immense as the US electoral campaign showed.

Internet has become a battlefield where information wars are waged to influence large masses of people and a considerable number of world leaders. A media outlet has become the most powerful weapon used by a “warring side?.

Geopolitical instability was increasing. There were geopolitical uncertainties, such as Brexit, the slowdown of China’s economic development to affect the global economic situation, and slow-moving trends in demographics and productivity growth.

2016 will be remembered as the year of the fourth industrial revolution – a phenomenon expected to change the world as we know it today. It started with consequences unknown. Despite rapid changes in technology, greater productivity, and the progress in labor force skills, the global economy was going through another year of stagnation. Internet, nanotechnology, bioscience, electronics, photonics, advanced materials and renewable energies have so far failed to produce a qualitative leap in the lives of many ordinary people, with social problems remaining as acute as ever.

And so far nothing gives ground to say 2017 will be the year of rapid economic growth. The ongoing political and economic uncertainties around the world are expected to negatively affect the fourth industrial revolution. At least, that’s what it was like in the year that’s gone.

In 2016, the China-offered Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific was launched while the US-initiated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has a slim chance to ever come to fruition. The China’s sponsored Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development started to sponsor the new Silk Road plan. If successful, these two projects can change the economic map of the contemporary world to benefit many other states and damage the US in terms of global standing.

The Silk Road Economic Belt will connect China with Central Asia, Russia and the Baltic countries in Europe; with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and West Asia; and with Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean. The Maritime Silk Road, meanwhile, will link China’s coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China’s coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other. 2016 …read more

Source: 2016 Ended: Saying Goodbye To A Roller-Coaster Year

    

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What Is America’s ‘Return’ Policy?

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By Tyler Durden

It’s that time of year…

Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

…read more

Source: What Is America’s ‘Return’ Policy?

    

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What Is America’s ‘Return’ Policy?

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By Tyler Durden

It’s that time of year…

Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

…read more

Source: What Is America’s ‘Return’ Policy?

    

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In 2017 Address, Merkel Decries "Distorted Picture" Of Refugee Policy "Painted By Populists"

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By Tyler Durden

In an awkwardly similar rhetoric to the failed slogan of Hillary Clinton, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her nation that “together, we are stronger. Our state is stronger,” giving no ground on her increasingly questioned open-border refugee policy as she slammed the “distorted picture” being painted by populists.

Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Germans to stay calm in the face of Islamist terrorism and, as Bloomberg reports, criticized nationalists for offering false hopes of security, signaling she’ll count on voters to opt for stability when she runs for a fourth term in 2017.

In her New Year’s Eve speech to the nation, Merkel predicted a contentious political climate in a year that’ll include Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president on Jan. 20 and elections in France and the Netherlands.

“As we pursue our lives and our work, we tell the terrorists: They are murderers full of hatred, but it’s not they who determine how we live and want to live,” Merkel said, according to an advance copy of the nationally televised speech on Saturday. “We are free, humane, open. Together, we are stronger. Our state is stronger.”

Merkel’s comments reflect the surge in political risks to her chancellorship, though she may benefit because she’s familiar to voters and has no obvious successor after 11 years in office.

Merkel gave no ground on her open-border refugee policy and took aim at populists who question the value of the European Union “or even of parliamentary democracy itself.”

“What a distorted picture,” she said. While the EU should focus on tasks it can truly do better than national governments, “we Germans should never let ourselves be tricked into believing that going it alone as a nation could lead to a happy future,” Merkel said.

Merkel sought to push back against her critics, saying she’ll work for a political debate “where we argue passionately about many things, but always as democrats,” with criticism voiced “peacefully and with respect for the individual.”

Merkel has become the target of online vilification and an unprecedented political challenge by the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, since leaving Germany’s borders open as more than 1 million refugees arrived over the past two years.

Wann schlägt der deutsche Rechtsstaat zurück? Wann hört diese verfluchte Heuchelei endlich auf? Es sind Merkels Tote!#Nizza#Berlin

— Marcus Pretzell (@MarcusPretzell) December 19, 2016

…read more

Source: In 2017 Address, Merkel Decries "Distorted Picture" Of Refugee Policy "Painted By Populists"

    

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‘Policing For Profit’ Goes To The Next Level

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Eric Peters via EricPetersAutos.com,

It’s bad enough getting arrested – especially when you didn’t do anything to warrant it. This happens all the time, because the the threshold for arresting someone is very low. It can be done by any cop, pretty much anytime – without much in the way of legal justification. He has the gun – and the handcuffs, after all. If he wants to arrest you, he will arrest you. Maybe the courts will sort it out later; eventually you are released, your record “cleared.”

This isn’t new – or news.

What is new – and ought to be news – is that several states have begun charging people “processing” and “incarceration” fees for their bogus arrest and subsequent just-as-bogus caging.

Minnesota and Kentucky are among the states that levy fees on people who are merely arrested and taken to the clink… even if they are never convicted of anything. In some cases, the people being charged for “services” rendered are never formally charged with any crime (which is something a prosecutor must do; a cop hasn’t got the power to do more than arrest you on suspicion of violating a statute).

It’s policing for profit taken to the next (entirely predictable) level.

Why not, after all?

Most states already have “just take it” laws on the books that empower cops to simply seize cash and other property prior to any judicial proceeding – and to keep it, even if there never is a judicial proceeding.

The mere fact that you have “excessive” cash on your person is sufficient legal justification in many states to result in its forfeiture – until you prove to their satisfaction it wasn’t “drug” money.

It is not their burden to establish… anything.

Franz Kafka, phone home.

We also have the equally egregious precedent of for-profit enforcement of traffic laws – coincident with the suspension (or at least, the watering down) of any semblance of procedural innocent-until-proved guilty. Cities and counties contract with a private company (the notorious Redflex being the chief profiteer) to install automated red light and speed cameras that chuck tickets to offenders automatically, via the mail – with the offender presumed guilty until he proves himself innocent.

The ticket is sent to the registered owner of the vehicle – who is not necessarily the person who was driving when the camera snapped the photo of the car’s plates and chucked a ticket to the owner. But the owner must prove it wasn’t him – as opposed to the former necessity of the state/county having to prove it was.

Meanwhile, pay up.

So it’s not surprising that states have decided to begin charging people for charging them – that is, accusing them of something. There’s even more potential profit in this since a cop can arrest anyone at any time – just about.

The evidentiary bar has been set extremely low – and whole categories of “crime” have been confected or defined so loosely (e.g., “disorderly conduct,” “interfering” with a law enforcer) as to …read more

Source: ‘Policing For Profit’ Goes To The Next Level

    

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New Year’s Eve celebrations around the world

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A look at how cities around the world are celebrating New Year’s Eve via photos taken on the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus. …read more

Source: New Year’s Eve celebrations around the world

    

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"Something Stinks" – Like Iraq WMD Fiasco, Russia Story Doesn’t Add Up

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By Tyler Durden

rush-to-judgment

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Yesterday, President Obama expelled 35 Russian “Operatives” from the Russian Embassy.

Is there any evidence those expelled are “intelligence operatives”? Any hard evidence Russia was behind the Hillary hacks? Any credible evidence that Putin himself is to blame?

The answers are No, No, and No. Yet, once again the American press is again asked to co-sign a dubious intelligence assessment.

Rush to Judgment

Something Stinks

The Rolling Stone comments Something About This Russia Story Stinks

In an extraordinary development Thursday, the Obama administration announced a series of sanctions against Russia. Thirty-five Russian nationals will be expelled from the country. President Obama issued a terse statement seeming to blame Russia for the hack of the Democratic National Committee emails.

“These data theft and disclosure activities could only have been directed by the highest levels of the Russian government,” he wrote.

The problem with this story is that, like the Iraq-WMD mess, it takes place in the middle of a highly politicized environment during which the motives of all the relevant actors are suspect. Nothing quite adds up.

If the American security agencies had smoking-gun evidence that the Russians had an organized campaign to derail the U.S. presidential election and deliver the White House to Trump, then expelling a few dozen diplomats after the election seems like an oddly weak and ill-timed response. Voices in both parties are saying this now.

Republican Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham noted the “small price” Russia paid for its “brazen attack.” The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, said Thursday that taken alone, the Obama response is “insufficient” as a response to “attacks on the United States by a foreign power.”

The “small price” is an eyebrow-raiser.

Adding to the problem is that in the last months of the campaign, and also in the time since the election, we’ve seen an epidemic of factually loose, clearly politically motivated reporting about Russia. Democrat-leaning pundits have been unnervingly quick to use phrases like “Russia hacked the election.”

This has led to widespread confusion among news audiences over whether the Russians hacked the DNC emails (a story that has at least been backed by some evidence, even if it hasn’t always been great evidence), or whether Russians hacked vote tallies in critical states (a far more outlandish tale backed by no credible evidence).

As noted in The Intercept and other outlets, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted this month shows that 50 percent of all Clinton voters believe the Russians hacked vote tallies.

And reports by some Democrat-friendly reporters – like Kurt Eichenwald, who has birthed some real head-scratchers this year, including what he admitted was a baseless claim that Trump spent time in an institution in 1990 – have attempted to argue that Trump surrogates may have been liaising with the Russians because they either visited Russia or appeared on the RT network. Similar reporting about Russian scheming has been based entirely on unnamed security …read more

Source: "Something Stinks" – Like Iraq WMD Fiasco, Russia Story Doesn’t Add Up

    

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