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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

India Fears Run On Banks: Capital Controls And Withdrawal Limits To Continue

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By Tyler Durden

india-banks

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Indian banks are fearful of running out of cash as lines queue up to withdraw money.

Bankers say they cannot cope with any sudden increase in demand, and warn against lifting cash withdrawal limits.

A decision by New Delhi on November 8 to scrap all large-denomination banknotes overnight removed 86 per cent of India’s currency from circulation. In an effort to prevent banks running out of cash, the finance ministry then imposed strict limits on the amount of new notes that could be withdrawn. Customers can currently withdraw just Rs2,500 from an ATM per day — equivalent to $37 — or Rs24,000 over the counter per week.

“If the government lifts the limits on Friday and there is a sudden rush, banks will be totally dependent on the central bank to give them enough liquidity,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, associate director at India Ratings and Research. “The Reserve Bank of India has been giving assurances that it has enough cash but reports of how much currency there currently is in the system suggest this might not be the case.”

New Delhi claims that purging most of India’s old cash supply, and replacing it with a smaller quantity of new banknotes, will eliminate illicitly earned or unaccounted for income that has been beyond the reach of tax officials.

But as of December 19, banks had replaced just 38 per cent of the Rs15.3tn in demonetised notes that was sucked out of the system by November’s announcement, according to RBI data.

The figures have alarmed bankers, who are now urging the government not to lift the curbs immediately. One executive said: “The government and the RBI need to make sure there is enough cash in the system before they lift the withdrawal limits.” A private banker told the Indian Express newspaper: “If the limits are relaxed, people will ask for more cash and there is limited cash. This will only turn banks into villains.”

When the policy was first announced, the government estimated that Rs5tn would remain undeclared as it would be part of illicit money hoards. But R Gandhi, RBI deputy governor, said earlier this month that over Rs12tn had already been handed back, and a newspaper report on Wednesday said the figure had since climbed to Rs14tn, leaving just over Rs1tn remaining.

This suggests either that the amount of illicit money in the system was overestimated by the government – or that new ways to launder cash have been discovered despite the government’s efforts.

The RBI did not respond to a request to comment.

More Experiments Coming

Speculation is rife that further unorthodox measures are coming: Modi to Crank Up Campaign Against India’s Black Money.

Well before India’s surprise ban on using 86 per cent of its cash supply, rightwing circles were abuzz with speculation about prime minister Narendra Modi taking such a step to fight so-called black money.

Mainstream economists paid little heed to the chatter — deeming it “too preposterous” to take seriously, given …read more

Source: India Fears Run On Banks: Capital Controls And Withdrawal Limits To Continue

    

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Posted December 29th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

It’s The Dollar, Stupid!

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com,

We think the markets have it fundamentally wrong. US investors are anticipating a cyclical shift towards economic expansion via new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending that promise to increase output, demand and asset prices. However, there is a far more influential driver of future asset prices – a structural shift that has begun but has yet to be acknowledged by economic and political authorities, and, judging by financial asset markets, by most investors. We expect weak equity markets and a strong treasury market beginning in 2017.

It’s the Dollar, Stupid.

The financial model used by advanced economies since 1971 is quickly losing its ability to support economic growth and rising asset prices.1 Western economic policy, which had previously relied heavily on credit creation from 1971 to 2008, was replaced in 2009 by monetary policy that relied heavily on base money creation through asset purchases. The structural shift in central bank focus from credit to monetary creation marked a paradigm shift in the decades-long finance-based economic model – from the leveraging phase to the de-leveraging phase.

The Fed shifted to relying on a communications policy in 2013, which focused on renewing the broad perception that by “normalizing” US interest rates the economy would again begin to react to credit incentives it could manage. It also emphasized the need for fiscal stimulus, which would ostensibly create demand and stimulate production growth. Last month the Fed hiked overnight rates for the second time in two years and the markets expect it to hike rate three times in 2017.

Fed rate hikes tighten credit conditions in the US and, given the continued execution of QE by other major global central banks, increase the exchange value of the dollar. A stronger dollar theoretically increases other economies’ exports into the US, provided that US consumers and businesses are able to maintain the same level of demand for foreign goods and services. This is an open question.

Donald Trump’s election raised hope that new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending will create sufficient demand. The dollar and US financial markets have reacted in sympathy with stock prices rising and bond prices falling…despite the Fed’s renewed credit tightening. A strong dollar would tend to attract global wealth to the US, wealth that theoretically could find its way into US risk assets including US equities. Thus, US equity strength since the election reflects a strong dollar, which is based on the combination of Fed rate hikes and renewed hope for US government stimulus.

This is not the first time the Fed has had to actively increase the exchange value of the dollar. Paul Volcker’s Fed had to hike overnight rates to 20% in 1980-81 so the dollar would be reaffirmed as a store of global value for US trading partners, including OPEC. We believe the Fed is doing the same today, in spite of its de-stimulative impact, because it wants to attract global capital to US banks and asset markets. Doing so would ensure …read more

Source: It’s The Dollar, Stupid!

    

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Posted December 29th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Will Investors Get ‘Hustled’ By The Pros In 2017?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Danielle DiMartino Booth via Money Strong,

It never pays to be an “afterthought.”

That was the word Jackie Gleason used to characterize the proposed reprisal of ‘Minnesota Fats’ in The Color of Money, 1986’s sequel to The Hustler. Chances are Paul Newman himself, who had at least 36 script conferences with the screenwriter, didn’t take offense to Gleason’s rebuff. “We desperately wanted the character to return,” Newman told the New York Times of Gleason’s ‘Fats,’ “but every time we put him in, it seemed like we were trying to glue an arm on a man and make it stick.”

Under the brilliant direction of Martin Scorsese, Newman would go on to win an Oscar for his role in Color. Still, as a whole, the sequel simply couldn’t stand up to the 1961 original. Hence the irony of Newman’s Oscar, which critics suggested was in belated recognition of his original performance as an ace pool player in The Hustler. In his young, glory days, Newman so deeply penetrated his characters’ roles that he literally vanished into them. His brilliance as an actor shined brightest in one scene when Eddie lost to Fats; rather than hostility or animus, his fascinated adoration for his idol was unabashedly on display, reflected in his bright eyes and amused expression. Now that’s Hollywood.

As for Wall Street, it’s recent performance has also laid the drama on thick and in perfect form as stocks pierce record highs. The investor community, the Street’s audience, couldn’t agree more. According to the latest survey from the Conference Board, retail investors’ enthusiasm for the stock market’s prospects is at the highest level since February 2007. A stroll down memory lane reveals that similar readings on the giddiness gauge were contrarian in nature, aka sell signals. That is, unless you’re referring to 1996 as a step-off point. In that case, today’s positive parallels suggest stocks’ 2017 sequel could best the original rally that culminated in the S&P 500 peaking in 2001.

What’s driving the train to stock market stardom? The singular theme since Trump was elected has been happiness bordering on euphoria. The overall December Conference Board survey hit a 15-year high. This echoed the most recent University of Michigan December survey, which hit a 12-year high. But it’s not just your average Joe on the street, as in Main Street. Small business confidence also witnessed its biggest one-month surge since 2009, while regional manufacturing surveys have uniformly topped forecasts. Based on an average of five regional Fed surveys, Morgan Stanley raised to a two-year high its expectations for the upcoming release of the national manufacturing survey.

The question is, can the economic fundamentals Trump the (over?)-heated hope? For that to happen, every bit of optimism has to be substantiated. And that supremely sublime stage has yet to be set.

The entirety of the Conference Board spike was due to expectations; current conditions, which remain high, actually fell on the month. Similarly, small business owners’ expectations for future sales rose smartly, which runs counter to actual …read more

Source: Will Investors Get ‘Hustled’ By The Pros In 2017?

    

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Posted December 29th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Trump says Sprint will bring back 5,000 U.S. jobs

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President-elect Donald Trump says Sprint will bring back 5,000 jobs to the U.S. and startup OneWeb will create 3,000. …read more

Source: Trump says Sprint will bring back 5,000 U.S. jobs

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

How Government Regulation Makes Us Poorer

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

This year, Mises Institute Associated Scholar Per Bylund released The Seen, the Unseen, and The Unrealized: How Regulations Affect Our Everyday Lives. We recently spoke with Professor Bylund about his book and how the effects of government regulation are more far-reaching and more damaging than many people realize.
MISES INSTITUTE: Why is the concept of the “unseen” so important to understanding the effects of regulation?

PER BYLUND: It is essential for understanding regulation, but the “unseen” is actually fundamental for economic understanding and analysis in general. What’s “unseen” is the proper benchmark. We need to consider both what didn’t happen but would have happened.

Oftentimes people, including so-called experts, compare apples and oranges by looking at data “before” and “after” an event, for instance, when discussing the effects of raising the minimum wage. So they might say that employment before was similar to after the hike, and then conclude that the change had no effect. But this is wrong, because there are plenty of changes in the economy that took place between the before and after — not only the minimum wage. So in order to figure out the effect of the minimum wage specifically, we must compare the “after” situation with what would have been had there been no minimum wage hike — the unseen.

This of course applies to any change in the economy, and not only regulation. Bastiat, in his classic essay on the broken window fallacy, discusses the effects as a boy smashes a window. But in modern state-planned economies, regulation is by far the most common and most destructive change, so that’s where we also find most analysis. As economic analysis is used to assess the effects of regulations before they’re implemented, it’s important to use the proper comparisons — the seen and the unseen, not the seen at different times (before and after).

MI: You also employ the concept of “the unrealized.”

PB: The unrealized is really my own extension to Bastiat’s famous analysis, and it is intended to redirect our attention from the macro level of the economy to how changes affect individuals — and especially what options they’re presented with. The point of the book is to show that regulating one part of the economy will have effects throughout the economic system, and that this type of artificial restriction will lead to some people being stripped of the choices they otherwise would have.

I exemplify this with the sweatshop, which is often argued against using only “the seen.” The working conditions are terrible in a sweatshop, especially compared to our cushy jobs in the West. Ben Powell and others have done great work pointing out that there’s also the unseen in the sense that without the sweatshop those workers would be in even worse shape. In fact, they are very eager to get jobs in the sweatshop because they’re so much better than all other options they have.

With the “unrealized,” however, I think we get a …read more

Source: How Government Regulation Makes Us Poorer

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Rebalance Rout: Stocks Slump Most Since October As Bonds, Bullion Bounce

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By Tyler Durden

Who could have seen this coming?

This just about sums things up…

And Bob Pisani is not happy…

Stocks midday: classic low-volume drift lower. Bids have evaporated, buyers acting like done for year. < 1% from historic high on $SPY.

— Bob Pisani (@BobPisani) December 28, 2016

As The S&P tumbled most since Oct 11th…

Trannies and Small Caps were worst today…

Futures show the difference as yesterday's US open was a buying panic and today's a selling panic…

VIX topped 13 briefly today as The Dow dropped 150 points from opening highs…

Sectors red across the board post-Xmas… Financials were hit but oddly Utes also sold (despite lower yields)…

The long bond is now best post-Fed – holding unchanged as stocks and gold slide…

High- and Low-Beta stocks in the S&P 500 have become entirely uncorrelated for the first time since the peak of the dotcom crash…

Bonds had their best day since August today – amid record indirects at the 5Y auction – with yields down 4 to 6bps across the complex) – 30Y yields dropped to 3-week lows…

It seems S&P dividend yields capped the 5Y yield advance…

The USD Index rose again on weakness across all majors overnight, then faded during the US day session…

Copper sank on the day as China fears continue as gold & silver gained…

Silver jumped above $16 again…

Gold up 4 days in a row – longest streak since before election…

Bitcoin was whacked early on but recovered its losses…

…read more

Source: Rebalance Rout: Stocks Slump Most Since October As Bonds, Bullion Bounce

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Federal Appeals Court Revives Hillary Email Case Leaving Key Decision To Trump’s Attorney General

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By Tyler Durden

Hillary

A federal appeals court for the District of Columbia has breathed new life into the Hillary email-gate scandal which will be music to the ears of Trump’s “lock her up” supporters. The case was filed by watchdog groups Judicial Watch and Cause of Action seeking to force the State Department to instruct the Department of Justice to file a federal records suit to recover Hillary’s missing emails. A lower court had previously ruled that the State Department’s efforts to recover Hillary’s emails were sufficient and threw the cases out. But D.C. Circuit Judge Stephen Williams, a Ronald Reagan appointee, had a different view. Per The Hill:

U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg had previously ruled that state’s efforts to recover the documents — tens of thousands of which Clinton turned over voluntarily in 2014 — were sufficient and threw out the cases.

But the three-judge appeals court panel on Tuesday said that State had not done enough.

“Even though those efforts bore some fruit, the Department has not explained why shaking the tree harder — e.g., by following the statutory mandate to seek action by the Attorney General — might not bear more still,” D.C. Circuit Judge Stephen Williams, a Ronald Reagan appointee, wrote in the court’s opinion. “It is therefore abundantly clear that, in terms of assuring government recovery of emails, appellants have not ‘been given everything [they] asked for.”

“Absent a showing that the requested enforcement action could not shake loose a few more emails, the case is not moot.”

While the new opinion acknowledges that DOJ involvement would be rendered moot if the defendants could provide definitive proof that additional efforts wouldn’t result in the recovery of additional emails, it also highlights that no such “factual support” has been presented to date.

Tuesday’s ruling does not order the State Department to make the referral to the DOJ — nor does it obligate DOJ to sue Clinton if presented with a referral.

But the language of the ruling does appear to suggest that the court considers the possibility that the DOJ’s involvement could uncover more emails.

“While the case might well also be moot if a referral were pointless (e.g., because no imaginable enforcement action by the Attorney General could lead to recovery of the missing emails), the record here provides no factual support for finding mootness on that basis,” Williams wrote.

Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton praised the ruling saying that it is now up to the Trump administration to determine whether they would like to “finally enforce the rule of law and try to retrieve all the emails Clinton and her aides unlawfully took with them when they left the State Department.”

“The courts seem to be fed up with the Obama administration’s refusal to enforce the rule of law on the Clinton emails,” Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton said in a statement.

“This ruling means that the Trump Justice Department will have to decide if it wants to finally enforce the rule of law …read more

Source: Federal Appeals Court Revives Hillary Email Case Leaving Key Decision To Trump’s Attorney General

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Here Are Some Headwinds to Worry About in 2017

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By The_Real_Fly

cny

Markets are trading off a bit here, as Dow 20,000 proves to be wonderfully elusive. Since everyone expected we’d reach 20k by New Year’s, we’ll probably never reach it at all.

Heading into 2017, it’s important to formulate a gameplan and prepare for any headwinds that might pose a problem for the stability of markets — else you’re just shooting in the dark — like morons.

Here are some things to pay attention to in 2017.

Trump’s anti-China rhetoric may start yielding some poisonous berries. Pay close attention to the USD/CNH and USD/CNY crosses. The FX markets will tell you all you need to know about China. Should you see their FX reserves shrink at the same time their currency drops, you know there is a flight of capital from China — which is bound to dry up liquidity and cause market dislocations. Remember, unlike our markets, the Chinese market is still traded and owned by ordinary people, traditionally weak hands. Plus, they’re so overleveraged, the slightest hiccup will literally destroy them.

The yuan is a constant downtick, which helps their exporters and pisses off Trump.

The US dollar index is at 14 year highs and continues to surge. Bad, bad, bad for US exporters.

American borrowing costs are surging at the same time that optimism for Trump fiscal stimulus projects buoy markets. This is counter-intuitive. Higher borrowing costs places a strain on our balance sheet and also makes it harder for Trump to enact stimulus, the whole basis of the recent 10% rally.

10yr

Crazy Grandma Yellen wants to hike 3 times in 2017, while the dollar is at 14 year highs, inflation is non-existent and has openly stated she’d hedge any fiscal stimulus by Trump with monetary tightening in order to stave off inflation — since we’re at ‘full employment.’

<img src="http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/files/2016/10/IMG_5245.jpg" alt=""

Last but not least, French elections will be held on April 23rd, 2017. If Le Pen gets elected, she will remove France from both the EU and NATO — something that only a deranged lunatic would liken to being bullish for stocks. This is a major event in a major EU nation, which might and quite literally lead the way towards the total collapse of the union.

le-pen

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

…read more

Source: Here Are Some Headwinds to Worry About in 2017

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Here They Come: Record Foreign Demand, Soaring Bit To Cover In Blockbuster 5 Year Auction

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By Tyler Durden

One didn’t have to be a rocket surgeon to predict that today’s 5Y auction would be strong, simply by looking at the 5Y trading super special in repo this morning, as low as a record -2.00% as shown in the chart below.

However, it wasn’t just the technicals: moments ago the Treasury sold $34 billion in 5 Year Notes (Cusip U81) in what can only be described as a blockbuster auction.

The High Yield printed at 2.057%, stropping through the When Issued by a whopping 1.2bps, the most since February 2016. The Bid to Cover was just as impressive, and at 2.72, this was the highest since November 2014.

But the most remarkable feature of today’s auction was the foreign demand: at 71.4% for Indirect Bidders (with 24.5% for Dealers and 4.1% for Directs), this was the highest foreign central bank and official buyer take down on record, and confirms what we reported on Friday when looking at the Fed’s custody holdings of Treasuries…

… namely that foreign buyers are finally back, and back with a vengeance. This was just confirmed at least when it comes to paper located in “No Man’s Land.”

For definitive proof that foreigners are now rushing into Treasuries, however, wait for tomorrow’s 7 Year “Belly” auction. If Indirects just can’t get enough, those record Treasury shorts are about to get very nervous.

…read more

Source: Here They Come: Record Foreign Demand, Soaring Bit To Cover In Blockbuster 5 Year Auction

    

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Posted December 28th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Russia "Tired Of Obama Lies About Hackers", Vows Response To Any New Sanctions

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By Tyler Durden

Obama Putin

As Washington prepares to unleash new sanctions on Russia, it appears Putin won't take this laying down. If U.S. adopts new sanctions against Russia, govt in Moscow will resort to counter-measures, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warns in a website statement.

As we detailed previously, the delay in sanctions against Russia have come from Obama's inability to take unilateral actions under current laws. While Obama previously signed an executive order that would allow him to freeze the assets in the United States of people overseas who have engaged in cyber acts, it only applies to actions that have threatened U.S. national security or financial stability. Further, per a “senior administration official,” use of the existing law would require (1) actual election infrastructure to be designated as 'critical infrastructure' and (2) the administration to prove that such infrastructure was actually “harmed,” conditions which the National Security Council say have not been met.

And Russia has pre-emptively warned of retaliation…

The outgoing US administration still hopes to finally have time to do something else for bad relations with Russia, and so she brought down. With clearly inspired leaks in the American media have once again trying to scare the extension of anti-Russian sanctions measures “diplomatic” and even sabotage against our computer systems. And this last “Christmas greetings” from the Obama team, already preparing for eviction from the White House cynically want to present as a reaction to certain “cyber attack from Moscow.”

Frankly, we are tired of the lies about the “Russian hackers”, which continues to flow into the United States from the very top. The Obama administration has launched six months ago, this misinformation in an attempt to play up the desired for himself a candidate in the November presidential election, and not achieving the desired, looking for an excuse for their own failure, and with a vengeance is played on Russian-American relations.

But the truth of the provocation orchestrated by the White House, sooner or later will still come out. Yes, it's already happening. How else to December 8 reported the US media, the State of Georgia State Secretary Brian Kemp he said that the authorities in the region followed where came hacker attack on its electronic system of vote counting shortly after the election. Footprints led to the computer at the US Department of Homeland Security. This information quickly tried to cover up the stream of new anti-Russian charges that do not contain a single proof.

It only remains to add that if Washington really takes new hostile steps, it will get the answer. This also applies to any action against Russian diplomatic missions in the United States, which immediately ricocheted on US diplomats in Russia. Perhaps the Obama administration is quite indifferent to what will happen to the bilateral relations, but the story is unlikely to forgive her behavior on the principle of “after us the deluge.”

In other words, Europe is about to get screwed again.

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