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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

Understanding the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of nations or empires is always of paramount importance in helping one draw lessons for the future

In this series of four articles I intend to lay a very detailed but easily understandable foundation for describing the mechanisms that drive great powers. To succeed, one must analyze the geopolitical theories that over more than a century have contributed to shaping the relationship between Washington and other world powers. Secondly, it is important to expound on how Washington’s main geopolitical opponents (China, Russia and Iran) have over the years been arranging a way to put a stop to the intrusive and overbearing actions of Washington. Finally, it is important to take note of the possibly significant changes in American foreign policy doctrine that have been occurring over the last twenty years, especially how the new Trump administration intends to change course by redefining priorities and objectives.

The first analysis will therefore focus on the international order, globalization, geopolitical theories, their translations into modern concepts, and what controlling a country’s sovereignty means.

Before examining geopolitical theories, it is important to understand the effects of globalization and the changing international order it entails, a direct consequence of US strategy that seeks to control every aspect of the economic, political and cultural decisions made by foreign countries, usually applying military means to achieve this objective.

Globalization and the International Order

It is important to first define the international order among nations before and after the collapse of the Berlin wall, especially focusing on the consequences of existing in a globalized world.

For the first half of the twentieth century the world found itself fighting two world wars, then, during the Cold War, lasting from 1945 to 1989, the balance of power maintained by the US and USSR held the prospect of a third world war at bay. With the dissolution of the USSR, the United States, the only remaining world superpower, thought it could aspire to absolute domination over the globe, as was famously expressed through the Project for A New American Century. Putting aside for a moment perpetual wars, one of the key strategies towards fulfilling this objective was the so-called experiment of globalization, applied especially in trade, economics and finance, all of course driven by American interests.

Having achieved victory in the Cold War over its socialist rival, the world went from a capitalist system to a turbo-charged capitalist system. US corporations, thanks to this model of world globalized economy, have experienced untold riches, such as Apple and other IT corporations generating amounts of cash flow equivalent to that of small countries.

Banks and US financial institutions such as Wall Street incrementally increased their already considerable influence over foreign nations thanks to the rise of computer technology, automation and accounting deceptions such as derivatives, just to give one example. The FED implemented policies that took advantage of the role of the dollar in the globalized economy (the dollar is the premier world reserve currency). Over …read more

Source: Geopolitics, Globalization, And World Order: Part 1

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Lawyer Robert Lighthizer is a leading contender for the post of U.S. Trade Representative, two sources with knowledge of the transition tell CNN. …read more

Source: Trump’s trade rep: Lawyer Robert Lighthizer is top pick

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By Tyler Durden

It turns out there is a downside to spending 120% of your annual income every year from the time you graduate college until that day you turn 40 and finally realize that you’re getting old and have absolutely no liquid assets and no hopes of ever retiring. While the above strategy seemingly makes sense to our elitist, Ivy League-educated central planners at the Fed who have waged a nearly decade-long war on saving (because how can we have economic growth if people aren’t willing to lever their income 5x and spend every dollar they make?), the roughly 19% of Americans who are over the age of 65 and are still forced to work are probably wishing they could go back and do things slightly differently.

As Bloomberg points out, the percentage of 65 years olds working in the U.S. today is higher than at any point going back to at least 1965.

Unfortunately, this looks to be a record that millennials are destined to beat. As we recently pointed out (see “Most Millennials Have Less Than $1,000 In Savings, Live Paycheck-to-Paycheck“), the majority of millennials are living paycheck to paycheck.

A recent survey of millennials by HowMuch.net found that 51.8% of those aged 18-34 have less than $1,000 held between bank accounts and cash savings.

As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, this echoes previous data we’ve seen – not just on millennials, but Americans in general. For example, we know that 14% of Americans have “negative” wealth. We also know that 62% of Americans don’t have emergency savings that could cover a $1,000 hospital visit or a $500 car repair.

Taking that into consideration, here’s a deeper dive into the more recent millennial data…

Meanwhile, as a testament to their strong work ethic, a study by ManpowerGroup recently found that roughly 30% of millennials envisioned taking an “extended break” from work at some point in their careers to “relax/travel/vacation” while another ~20% said they’d take a break to “pursue a life dream or hobby.” Sure, why not? If everything goes horribly wrong then taxpayers will be waiting to payoff your student loans for you…so no worries.

And, unless you thought this was just a phenomenon limited to America’s snowflakes, turns out millennials all over the world have very little confidence in their ability to save.

Well, at least we’re not alone…misery loves company as they say.

…read more

Source: Here Are The Countries Where Millennials Will Have To Work Until They Die

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By Tyler Durden

Since Donald Trump's election, the credit risk of two of the world's most important nations has diverged dramatically…

Aside from Chile, China's credit risk has worsened quite notably in the last 7 weeks since Donald Trump was elected.

But, as Bloomberg notes below, Russian credit risk has collapsed. In fact, it’s turning out to be the best December for Russia’s credit risk since at least 2004. The premium paid for protection against a debt default by the government has fallen 21 percent so far this month, the best showing in the world.

Pushing Russia's market-perceived credit risk back to pre-sanctions lows…

And finally, in case you were curious, USA default/devaluation risk has risen 'relatively' notably since the election…

…read more

Source: Guess Which Country’s Credit Risk Has Improved The Most Since Trump’s Election

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By Tyler Durden

According to the most recent TIC data, reported here last week, foreign Treasury holders and especially China, were dumping US paper like there’s no tomorrow. In fact, according to the latest available data as of the end of October, foreign central banks had liquidated a record $403 billion in Treasuries in the LTM period.

However, it is what happened after this date that is more interesting, and while we won’t have official TIC data for December until mid-February, a convenient proxy for foreign central bank Treasury activity is the Fed’s custody account, where according to the latest data as of December 21, there has been a substantial swing in purchasing intentions.

As shown in the chart below, after a year and a half of one-way selling, the Treasury holdings in the Fed’s custody account have jumped by $60 billion in the past month…

… leading to one of the most acute sell-to-buy swings since the start of 2015, when just like now, conventional wisdom was to dump Treasuries, only to result in a dramatic plunge in yields to the mid-1% range.

So with foreigners once again aggressively buying US paper, does it mean that the recent rout is over? We don’t know the answer, although as we reported two days ago, someone believes they do, and are aggressively loading up on calls for TLT (the
long-end Treasury Bond ETF) which as we showed is the most active with call volumes (bullish bonds, lower rates) more than double the average, with over $1.3 billion notional in February $126 Calls (which will payoff if rates drop to around 2.00% by then).

As Susquehanna noted earlier in the week, the trader established a low-delta, speculative upside position. And he is not alone in his bid for those $126 Calls:

And since a $126 TLT implies around a 2.00 to 2.05% 10Y yield…

… that means at least one trader is convinced that yields will tumble in the immediate future, with or without an offsetting plunge in stocks as the reflation thesis is unwound.

Will it happen? Again, it remains to be seen, but recall that the short interest in the Tsy complex is at all time highs.

All that is needed to spark a short covering stampede is a sign that the “whale” buyers are coming back, which in the case of central banks they now are…

…read more

Source: They’re Back: Foreign Central Banks Quietly Unleash A Treasury Buying Spree

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