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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Former Fed Advisor: State Pensions Time Bomb Spells Disaster For The US

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By Tyler Durden

Underfunded government pensions to the tune of $1.3 trillion, with a gap that just can’t be filled, is the ticking time bomb facing the US economy which faces dramatic cuts in public services – and potentially riots reminiscent of Athens six years ago – according to former Federal Reserve advisor, and President of Money Strong, Danielle DiMartino Booth.

As she picks apart the danger signs with the US on the precipice of recession, it’s the impending pensions crisis that keeps her awake at night, sharing the gloomy sentiment laid out in an extensive March 2016 Citi report titled “The coming pensions crisis.”

With few people taking part in what little recovery the US has had, and given how stretched pensions are, checks are going to have to be written from Washington sooner than you think, DiMartino Booth told Real Vision TV in an interview. “The Baby Boomers are no longer an actuarial theory,” she said. “They’re a reality. The checks are being written.”


A Bulldozer Couldn’t Fill the State Pensions Gap

The $1.3 trillion pensions deficit just takes into account state and municipal obligations, and with promised returns of 8% and funds compounding at 3% for decades it will take nothing short of an economic miracle to recover. “The average state pension in the last fiscal year returned something south of 1%. You cannot fill that gap with a bulldozer, impossible,” DiMartino Booth said. “Anyone who knows their compounding tables knows you don’t make that up. You don’t get that back unless you get some miracle.”

The last time we saw significant market weakness, the baby boomers pretty much accepted that they would be retiring at 70 instead of 65, she added. “Well, guess what? They’re turning 71. And the physiological decision to stay in the workforce won’t work for much longer. And that means that these pensions are going to come under tremendous amounts of pressure.

“And the idea that we can escape what’s to come, given demographically what we’re staring at is naive at best. And it’s reckless at worst,” DiMartino Booth said. “And when you throw private equity and all of the dry powder that they have — that they’re sitting on — still waiting to deploy on pensions’ behalf, at really egregious valuations, yeah, it’s hard to sleep at night.”

Pension Fund Underfunding is Ground Zero

The interview with Real Vision was held in Dallas, which DiMartino Booth said is Ground Zero for the pensions crisis, where returns for the $2.27 billion Police and Fire Pension System have suffered due to risky investments in real estate made over a decade ago. Huge withdrawals are now taking place, amid concerns over the future viability of the pension scheme, which commentators say could be flat broke in a little over ten years.

“We’re seeing this surge of people trying to retire early and take the money. Because they see it’s not going to be there. And if that dynamic and that belief spreads– forget all the other problems,” DiMartino Booth said. …read more

Source: Former Fed Advisor: State Pensions Time Bomb Spells Disaster For The US

    

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Posted December 18th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Paul Krugman Loses It: Hints At Trump 9/11-Style Attack False Flag

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By Tyler Durden

Some establishment types took the election of Donald Trump – and the implicit rejection of their omnipotence – a lot harder than others. Perhaps the arch-Keynesian himself, New York Times' Paul Krugman, is the best example, lashing out this morning at the ignorance of Trump voters once again (well they must be ignorant, right?) along with his co-conspirators Noah Smith and Brad DeLong, exclaiming:

“A fact-constrained candidate wouldn’t have been able to promise such people what they want; Trump, of course, had no problem.”

And falling back to playing the race card also…

“California is an affluent state, a heavy net contributor to the federal budget; it went 2-1 Clinton. West Virginia is poor and a huge net recipient of federal aid; it went 2 1/2-1 Trump.

I don’t think any kind of economic analysis can explain this. It has to be about culture and, as always, race.”

But, it was a tweet that the great “debt doesn't matter” guru blurted out this morning that has many questioning his sanity (or paranoia)…

Thought: There was (rightly) a cloud of illegitimacy over Bush, dispelled (wrongly) by 9/11. Creates some interesting incentives for Trump

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) December 16, 2016

We are shocked that Twitter followers have not demanded Krugman be banned, blocked, and shamed for such conspiracy theory hate-speak.

Reading between the lines of the so-called economist's comment, he appears to be suggesting that president-elect Donald Trump has an “incentive” to stage a 9/11-style terrorist attack in order to legitimize his presidency (“like Bush did”?)

Hell, we nearly had a seizure upon reading this, though not of course as bad a Kurt Eichenwald's…

* * *

Now, does Krugman's tweet seem like real news worthy of the great New York Times' columnist or “fake news”? Is this the kind of suggestive propaganda that The CIA is hoping maintains a groundswell of “well, if he is not hitler… he must be worse” thoughts among those so easily led? Still, coming from a man who has prognosticated alien invasions as a global economic growth engine, we are not sure if he is mental situation is improving or deteriorating.

…read more

Source: Paul Krugman Loses It: Hints At Trump 9/11-Style Attack False Flag

    

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Posted December 18th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

How We Ended Up Here: A Brief History Of "Fake News", And The Role Of FaceBook

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By Tyler Durden

With major media outlets having launched their campaign against fake news, which can be seen in in action in the screengrab below in which ABC News is disputing a news item…

You can see the Facebook “fake news” warning label in action here — “disputed by ABC News” https://t.co/szQrgHj5yY pic.twitter.com/chGyZ1L8E2

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) December 17, 2016

… we wanted to share with our readers an insightful “tweetstorm” by Matt Stoller who goes through the history of not only the so-called “fake news” phenomenon, which is nothing new, but the recent evolution of the “news” business model, to observe how we ended up with Facebook effectively dictating what is and isn’t news.

By Matt Stoller:

Fake news was a core concern of New Dealer media reformers. This is part of a statement I found in the Patman archives.

Newspapers owned by reactionary publishers constantly made things up about New Dealers. Like that Congressman didn’t pay taxes.

Patman’s particular newspaper was called the Paris News. It was, as he put it, ‘absentee owned’. This is a core concept.

Absentee ownership meant that the owners didn’t pay attention to how their institutions affected people where those owners didn’t live.

It didn’t matter to a New York news magnate whether info put out by his chain about Paris, TX was true. He didn’t live there.

The basic idea behind media and telecom reforms was to keep institutions local, and keep them decentralized.

Multiple structural barriers were organized to preserve truth. Newspaper unions, for one, fought publishers over editorial independence

A diversity of news sources, like union newspapers and newspapers in lots of languages, was another.

The Communications Act of 1934 was a key law to block control of our telephone system by AT&T.

Victor Pickard’s ( @VWPickard) book goes into fights at the FCC in the 1940s over the structure of radio and TV (link)

All of these fights created a structure of New Deal news that people think of as objective.

Nostalgia, like ‘remember when Walter Cronkite told the truth?’ When America was unified. But this was b/c of earlier political fights.

The 1930s to 1970s news industry was structured to avoid fake news. It wasn’t totally successful. But some of the protections held.

There were other protections for media more broadly, like fin-syn rules for TV and the antitrust suit against the studios.

There were lots of newspapers for different communities, including ones that were key to the Civil Rights movement.

Fast forward to the 1980s and 1990s. Media consolidation, deregulation, attacks on newspaper unions.

Fox News and Rush Limbaugh emerge out of changes in regulatory policy by Reagan and Clinton. Financiers begin newspaper roll-ups.

Newspapers begin falling apart, though the financials don’t reflect it yet. 1990s media landscape is insane with conspiracy theories.

In the mid-2000s, Google and Facebook begin their march to monopolizing the ad networks. Google buys Doubleclick.

As corrupted as news has become, it still exists, somewhat. But the platform monopolists begin chewing up all their revenue.

And the greatest absentee owned editor imaginable appears: The Algorithm

The …read more

Source: How We Ended Up Here: A Brief History Of "Fake News", And The Role Of FaceBook

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Reflections On Trumplandia: America "Embodies Elements Of A Societal Disintegration"

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By Tyler Durden

Via Edelweiss Journal,

Reflections on Trump’s America

That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will be done. So there is nothing new under the sun.

Perhaps it was inevitable that a man like Mr Trump would some day end up in the White House. Immodesty notwithstanding, he is intelligent, patriotic, and richly endowed with that American can do disposition. His election, at least within the context of financial markets both in America and elsewhere, has been greeted thus far with the exuberance and fervour reserved for the second coming of an industrial revolution. Yet, even as one ought to welcome Mr Trump’s businesslike ideas for a country that has veered further and further into an economic unknown, there is scant reason for the boundless euphoria of anticipated greatness—the subject of this brief essay.

To some folks, Mr Trump’s words and promise to “make America great again” resonated with those of the late President Reagan. On one hand, it seems that he understands what’s what. In a September interview with Reuters, he accused the Fed of having created a “false economy” (true) and “keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down” (also true). Responding to claims of alleged economic robustness, he said: “The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market.” On the other hand, the grandiose economic policies and promises he has outlined demand a cheap dollar and even greater deficits and debt creation. His administration faces a federal debt of $20 trillion, unfunded liabilities of more than $100 trillion and 50% of a population dependent on (most, in fact, feel entitled to) some kind of government spending, which translates to the fact that much more credit/debt is a necessity and not an option. When Mr Reagan took office, circumstances were a lot different. Thus, the euphoria among financial and political pundits is unlikely to last long. The exuberance of the moment, no matter the soundness of expectations, may, for a while, give rise to higher share and dollar prices, but its consequences are trivial.

It’s hard to know what Mr Trump means with the words “Make America Great Again.” No one seems to have asked him. The first three words could well refer to some artificial conditions that merely generate confidence, enthusiasm—and retail sales. It is the again that holds the clues as to his understanding and motivation. If America was great, what was it that made it so? This isn’t a subject for short essays.

Most Americans over the age of fifty would concur with the description of America today by Strauss and Howe:

The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. Wherever we look … we see paths to a foreboding future. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in …read more

Source: Reflections On Trumplandia: America "Embodies Elements Of A Societal Disintegration"

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

"When Everyone Is Sure They Know What’s Going To Happen, They’re Wrong"

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By Tyler Durden

Via Miller's Market Musings,

What A Long Strange Trip It's Been

Sometimes the light's all shinin' on me,
Other times I can barely see
Lately it occurs to me what a long, strange trip it's been

-The Grateful Dead, 1970, by Jerome Garcia, Philip Lesh, Robert Hunter and Robert Weir

In my last note, May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor, I wrote “The bond market is, probabilistically speaking, an underdog to perform well over the next 2-3 years.” Since then, the 10 year US Treasury bond has fallen over 3.5%, and the yield has risen over 58 basis points from 1.75% to 2.33% as of the close yesterday. For investors who bought the 10-year thinking they were going to earn 1.75% for the next ten years, losing over two years’ worth of income in a month must sting a bit. And if they don’t change, they’re going to get stung again.

Could rates pull back a bit? Sure. It’s been a big move, fast. But as another writer I respect wrote recently, “Interest rates go from 15% to 1.3%, then go to 2%, and you think you missed it?” Retail investors who have piled into bond alternatives like Utilities and Staples in an ill-informed yield chase are going to be in for a shock when they get their November statements in a few weeks. Long-time readers know that we have been short both sectors via the XLU and XLP for awhile, and those bets have paid off. We’re not saying the move is done, but the risk-reward is now more balanced, and we’ve been paring them back. (We’re out of the XLP short completely). One trade we still like is our short in foreign sovereign debt. This short is working (down 4.7% since election day) and I think will continue to work. Negative interest rate policies are just dumb, as they eviscerate wide swaths of the economy, from pension plans to insurance companies and regular savers. I like being short stupidity, and being short negative yielding bonds is a way to do it.

On the flip side, U.S. banks are on fire. The KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is up 17.1% since election day (full disclosure: I was long XLF and KRE calls before election day and am still long over half the position). Higher rates are only part of the story, and arguably, the least important part. Yes, higher rates are great for most banks, as they can finally earn a spread on their lending. Low rates were terrible for net interest margins (NIM), but with rates moving up, banks can earn a decent return again. This will in turn spur more lending, which will help the economy, particularly small businesses, where funds were tougher to get. But the big benefit for banks will be in regulatory relief. Right now, the two big numbers for banks are $10 billion and $50 billion. Not to go into too much detail here, but those …read more

Source: "When Everyone Is Sure They Know What’s Going To Happen, They’re Wrong"

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

US Treasure Hunter To Remain In Jail Until He Tells FBI Where He Hid 3 Tons Of Gold

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By Tyler Durden

Thompson

Famous U.S. treasure hunter, Tommy Thompson found a trove of gold coins and bars on the floor of the Atlantic ocean back in 1988. The treasure came from the SS Central America, which sank to the bottom of the sea during a hurricane in 1857, along with at least three tons of California gold and its 425 crewmembers.

The gold lay on the ocean floor for 180 years until Thompson, an engineer from Columbus, Ohio, built a robot capable of diving to 8,000 feet to retrieve the massive booty. The only problem is that Thompson needed investors to fund his expeditions, investors who say they were never paid their share of the discovery. Per the Chicago Tribune:

Many tried to find it, but none succeeded until a young, shipwreck-obsessed engineer from Columbus, Ohio, built an underwater robot called “Nemo” to pinpoint the Central America, then dive 8,000 feet under the sea and surface with the loot.

“A man as personable as he was brilliant, Thompson recruited more than 160 investors to fund his expedition,” Columbus Monthly noted in a profile. He “spent years studying the ship’s fateful voyage . . . and developing the technology to plunge deeper in the ocean than anyone had before to retrieve its treasure.”

Two of the expedition’s biggest investors took him to court in the 2000s, accusing him of selling nearly all the gold and keeping the profits to himself.

When a federal judge ordered Thompson to appear in 2012, he didn’t show. An arrest warrant was issued, but the man who found a long-lost shipwreck had disappeared.

There followed a two-year manhunt for what a top U.S. Marshal called “perhaps one of the smartest fugitives” the agency had ever chased.

Thompson had “almost limitless resources and approximately a 10-year head start” in the chase, Peter Tobin, U.S. Marshal for the Southern District of Ohio, said in a statement.

But Thompson was finally captured by US Marshals in January 2015, after agents tracked his girlfriend to a $200-a-night hotel near West Palm Beach. Thompson and his girlfriend had been living for years in a Florida mansion, paying rent with cash that was damp and moldy from the earth it had been buried in, the Washington Post reported last year. Arrest records detailed what the couple had left behind: disposable cellphones, money straps stamped “$10,000,” and a guide on evading law enforcement, titled “How to be Invisible.”

While the Marshals were finally able to track down Thompson, his gold was still no where to be found. According to his lawyers, Thompson would love to share a portion of his loot with his investors but suffered from a sudden bout of “amnesia” and simply couldn’t remember where he had stashed the 3 billion pounds of gold.

Unfortunately, U.S. District Judge Algenon Marbley didn’t buy the “amnesia story and ordered him to remain in prison until he could remember the gold’s whereabouts…“Who knows – he might have an epiphany.”

Thompson’s …read more

Source: US Treasure Hunter To Remain In Jail Until He Tells FBI Where He Hid 3 Tons Of Gold

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Phoenix Unlikely To Rise From Democratic Party’s Ashes

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Ben Tanosborn,

After almost four decades of disregard for a decomposing cadaver, party progressives appear ready to cremate the Democratic Party’s corpse and give it a requiem mass doubtful that their minority status will allow them to revive the party. Not the majority, however, who seem hopeful for a Lazarus’ resuscitation without a Jesus in their midst; a legion of career politicians tending to their own personal needs. Little wonder that Democratic members in Congress quickly have declared the Revolution brought in by Bernie Sanders, and represented in the progressive platform enacted in the summer, as dead on arrival, allowing for the De-evolution to continue under the leadership of two old generals: Nancy Pelosi (House) and Charles Schumer (Senate).

A mummified party led first by Bill Clinton and later by Barack Obama did fool a lion’s share of the population into thinking the Democratic Ass was alive and kicking, but this 2016 tell-tale presidential election has finally unfolded to tell the truth in contemporary American politics. The myth of a diverse but united Democratic Party has held as truth up to and including Obama’s presidency; however, Hillary Clinton, lacking the manifest and cunning scoundrelism of husband Bill, just couldn’t keep the raggedy and diverse troops marching in step without a single unifying drummer.

Although the Democratic Party continued to present itself as a big tent accommodating and giving shelter to diversity, be it large racial/ethnic minorities, or myriad other single- issue contingents, it never superimposed a common goal for all, a single banner to take to battle. Unlike in other memorable time – Bill Clinton’s presidential run in1992 – when James Carville’s “The economy, stupid!” was coined as a campaign battle cry to defeat Bush Senior, Hillary Clinton seemed to think she could defeat Trump without one. And Sanders’ gift to her of a modified version of that same slogan was not adopted when it could have won the day; an effective version absent of criticism for Obama’s handling of the economy.

It was the power-elite in the Democratic Party that force-exiled too many poor white Democrats into joining Trump’s bigopats. And an election that Democrats should have won by 10-15 million votes ended in an Electoral College fratricidal defeat… taking place in Rust Belt states where insurgent Democrats broke party ranks.

Rolling Stone’s Jann Wenner’s interview with President Obama on November 9 the day after the presidential election-cataclysm provides us with a sober reality of the how and why of the Democratic Party’s demise in American politics: the alternating in governing by Tweedledee-Democrats and Tweedledum-Republicans to be no more.

In the interview, Barack Obama stated that when he turns over the keys of the federal government to Donald Trump, he (Obama) can claim “without equivocation” that the country is a lot better off, indicating the economy is stronger, the federal government works better, and the US standing in the world is higher.

Well, Mr. President, here’s where your “equivocation” takes place. The economy …read more

Source: Phoenix Unlikely To Rise From Democratic Party’s Ashes

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Duterte: "Bye Bye America, We Don’t Need Your Money, China Said They Will Provide"

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By Tyler Durden

While there have been signs of a recent thawing in the diplomatic freeze between the Philippines and the US, after president Rodrigo Duterte – who has repeatedly called president Obama “son of a whote” – congratulated Donald Trump on his election, and moved to bury the hatchet with Washington last week, when he said “I would like to congratulate President Trump. Long live!” adding “now we’re here, I don’t want to … fight because Trump is already there”, relations appeared to take a turn for the worse again overnight when Duterte told the US on Saturday to prepare for repeal of an agreement on deployment of troops and equipment for exercises, declaring “bye-bye America”, and we don’t need your money.

Duterte’s beef with the US has been largely with the Obama administration, which has criticized the Philippines president over reports of extra-judicial killings in his campaign against drugs. Addressing Washington, Duterte said “we do not need you” after arriving from visits to Cambodia and Singapore. “Prepare to leave the Philippines. Prepare for the eventual repeal or abrogation of the VFA.“

“I understand that we have been stricken out of the Millennium Challenge. Well,
good, I welcome it,” Duterte speaking with apparent sarcasm. | AP Photo

The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), signed in 1998, accorded legal status to thousands of U.S. troops who were rotated in the country for military exercises and humanitarian assistance operations.

The irritable leader was visibly upset and vented his anger on Washington because of a decision by the Millennium Challenge Corp (MCC) board to defer vote on the re-selection of Manila for compact development due to human rights issues.

“I understand that we have been stricken out of the Millennium Challenge. Well, good, I welcome it,” Duterte said with apparent sarcasm. “We can survive without American money,” he said.

“But you know, America, you might also be put to notice. Prepare to leave the Philippines, prepare for the eventual repeal or the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement,” he said, referring to a 1998 accord that governs American forces visiting the Philippines for joint combat exercises.

“You know, tit for tat … if you can do this, so (can) we. It ain’t a one-way traffic,” Duterte said, adding tauntingly, “Bye-bye America and work on the protocols that will eventually move you out of the Philippines,” he said, adding his decision would come “any day soon” after reviewing another military deal, Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.

A U.S. government aid agency, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, said earlier in the week that its board deferred a vote on a renewal of the development assistance package for the Philippines “subject to a further review of concerns around rule of law and civil liberties.”

“We do not need the money. China said they will provide so many,” he said. “The politics here in Southeast Asia is changing.”

While calling Americans “sons of bitches” and “hypocrites,” Duterte praised China as having “the kindest soul of all” for offering what he said was significant …read more

Source: Duterte: "Bye Bye America, We Don’t Need Your Money, China Said They Will Provide"

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Fuel Tanker Explodes; 2 Die In 55-Car Crash After "Brutal" Northeast Cold Turns I-95 Into Ice Rink

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By Tyler Durden

The US northeast, and much of America, woke up to a brutal blast of frigid air sweeping across the United States, which has wreaked havoc on roads in Virginia and Maryland, leaving at least three dead in multi-vehicle wrecks Saturday.

According to CBS, a 55-vehicle crash on a icy stretch of I-95 in Baltimore, which also included a dramatic crash and explosion of a fuel tanker truck, left at least two people dead and motorists stranded for hours about 5 a.m. Saturday, Baltimore Fire Department spokesman Roman Clark said. Eleven people were taken to hospitals.

The frozen roads are the result of an arctic air mass, called Winter Storm Decima, that has chilled large swaths of the northern United States for days will culminate this weekend with dangerous cold in Montana and North Dakota as heavy snow falls in other parts of the country, officials said. People in North Dakota face “life threatening cold” and the risk of frostbite with exposure of 10 minutes or less, the National Weather Service (NWS) said in an advisory. In Montana dangerous wind chills are expected to last through Saturday afternoon and people should guard against hypothermia, the NWS said.

Temperatures in parts of Montana could plummet to record lows for this day of around minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 34 degrees Celsius), meteorologist Kenneth James of the Weather Prediction Center said in a phone interview cited by Reuters.

The bitter cold comes from a blast of arctic air – the second one this week – blowing south from Canada across the U.S. border into the northern plain states and the Midwest, NWS officials said. It has joined forces with a storm that swept in from the Pacific Ocean, bringing snowfall to large sections of the northern United States as it chugs across the country to the East Coast, they said. Areas of Wisconsin, Indiana, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will see the heaviest snowfall from the storm on Saturday, with up to 6 inches (15 cm) of accumulation possible in those regions.

* * *

So far most impacted has been transportation along the I-95 corridor and especially around Baltimore, where traffic was at a stand still for hours while crews assessed this morning’s crash. Authorities say a tanker went off the bridge and fell down to the street below.

A Twitter clip posted on Saturday morning showed a fuel truck flipping over a median on the interstate before erupting in flames near the Washington Boulevard exit, CNN affiliate WBAL reported. Clark confirmed the video showed the I-95 crash.

Following the crash, I-95 in parts of southwest Baltimore has been largely shut down as emergency vehicles descended on the scene, stalling traffic for miles and leading authorities to urge stranded motorists on both sides of the interstate to “remain warm and calm and shelter in place” in their cars, Clark said.

Here’s another capture from slightly further back on the neighboring overpass adjacent to #I95N in #Baltimore taken ~30min ago. …read more

Source: Fuel Tanker Explodes; 2 Die In 55-Car Crash After "Brutal" Northeast Cold Turns I-95 Into Ice Rink

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

‘Rogue One’ – Huge box office win

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“Rogue One: A Star Wars” opens to big box office expectations this weekend for Disney …read more

Source: ‘Rogue One’ – Huge box office win

    

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Posted December 17th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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