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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

For all the shock, horror, and aghast of global warm-ongers, comes a startling revelation: It’s Irrelevant if US Pulls Out of Paris Accord.

Donald Trump has sent his clearest message yet about his plans for reshaping US policy on global warming by choosing a chief environmental regulator who has questioned the science of climate change.

But leading experts say the nomination of Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma’s attorney-general as head of the Environmental Protection Agency and the policy he pursues, may have less effect than many imagine on global greenhouse gas emissions.

Analysis by PwC, the financial services firm, shows G20 countries need to reduce their carbon intensity — the amount of carbon dioxide they emit for every dollar of GDP they produce — by an annual average of 3 per cent to meet their Paris agreement targets.

Even if the US abandoned the deal it would have a limited direct impact on the overall G20 effort. If all other countries stayed on track to meet their carbon targets, but the US returned to business as usual, the average annual cut for the G20 as a whole would only fall slightly, from 3 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

That is chiefly because of market developments such as the US shale gas boom that has squeezed out coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, a situation some think unlikely to change no matter what Mr Trump does.

“The impact on the global emissions projection is pretty small even if the US shelves its Paris target,” said Jonathan Grant, a director of climate and sustainability at PwC.

He emphasised the contribution of market and technological shifts to tackling emissions growth adding “it’s doubtful that can be thrown into reverse by one country”.

Warm-Ongering

• On November 10 the New York Times posted Donald Trump Could Put Climate Change on Course for ‘Danger Zone’
• On October 7, Paul Krugman asked What About the Planet?

Ridiculousness From Trump

As ridiculous as those positions are, this one by Trump is far more ridiculous.

My Four-Pronged Position

1. The earth has gone through many periods of warming and cooling that have lasted 10s of millions of years or longer. The reasons are complex, far beyond greenhouse gas emissions. Background radiation from space, the sun’s position in the galaxy, and solar cycles that no one has any record of, all play a part. There are likely complex reasons we are not even aware of today.

CO², in isolation, all other things equal (which they aren’t and never will be), will tend to warm the atmosphere. However, it’s questionable, at best, to presume greenhouses gasses account for the bulk of what’s happening.

Scientists have changed their model numerous times, and the data to match, to prove global warming. Models that said were were in a period of no warming for 15 …read more

Source: Global Warm-Ongering: What Happens If Trump Takes US Out Of Paris Agreement?

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By Tyler Durden

According to various anecdotal reports, in addition to launching the stock markets on an unprecedented meltup, Trump’s presidential victory has also boosted consumer confidence, leading to a spike in post-election spending.

That, however, is not only not validated by the actual data, but according to evidence, retail spending – a key component of the Trump “hope” trade – has actually slowed down.

One snapshot of what consumers did pre- and post-elections comes from the latest Bank of America credit and debit card data. The bank pulled daily card data and calculated “core control” sales which it defines as retail sales ex-autos, building materials, gasoline and groceries. It then indexed this spending on election day and compared it to the trends after the 2012 and 2008 elections. Noting the weekly pattern where sales pick up on the weekend, it finds that spending after the election was in line with the prior two election years. This year, sales accelerated a bit more as we approached the holiday season, however slowed down modestly in the days after. Overall, as BofA says, “there is little evidence of a particularly strong post-election boost in spending this year.“

A more interesting report, one which relies on satellite imagery to look at parking lot activity of multiple US retailers in the pre and post election season, as well as over the critical Thanksgiving and Black Friday period, comes from JPMorgan. The summary conclusion: the analysis suggests significant activity weakness at core US retail locations, as JPM finds “that Y/Y activity trends worsened post the election contrary to stock market moves and color from some management teams.”

Here are JPM’s findings:

• Leveraging Satellite big data. We are leveraging our own ability to manipulate and analyze large data sets against proprietary parking lot car count data from Orbital Insight. Orbital Insight collects satellite imagery and then applies proprietary machine learning based image recognition technology to count cars in parking lots on a daily basis. The data we are using here is comprised of over 280k daily datapoints spanning multiple years.
• Big picture trends negative. We observe a deterioration of total car counts in aggregate that has taken place more post the election than prior to it. We find this interesting as it is counter to prevailing thought on Thanksgiving demand but consistent with weaker early Fall retail trends.
  
• IT Hardware/Networking takeaways. We are already forecasting N. American handset units down 11% Y/Y in Q4 but we had been expecting very slight growth of 0.5% for PCs. Should consumer demand turn out sluggish over the Holiday season we believe Apple would be most impacted due to its high (~30% of unit volume) exposure to the US in Q4. QCOM, GLW and HPQ would also likely be impacted.
• Retailing/Dept. Stores & Specialty takeaways. Larger picture, average Holiday traffic across our sample of 11 retailers under coverage has moved from positive low single digits in 2014 to flattish in 2015 to negative mid-single digits in 2016. Near-term and consistent with our field work, 4Q16-to-date has been …read more

  Source: Satellite Imagery Reveals Sharp Retail Spending Slowdown After The Election

      

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By Tyler Durden

Joe Scarborough dropped an epic dose of truth on Hillary and her disaffected, snowflake supporters this morning after Clinton herself took to the stage yesterday to blame “fake news” for her stunning loss. Apparently not a buyer of the “fake news” excuse, Scarborough blasted Hillary, and democrats in general, saying that “Hillary Clinton cost Hillary Clinton the election.”

“When you look at this ‘fake news,’ and you see what happened up at Harvard and you hear everybody writing articles saying millennials cost Hillary Clinton the election, and dogs with three legs cost Hillary Clinton the election, and comets passing in the night– Hillary Clinton cost Hillary Clinton the election. Hillary Clinton’s campaign staff cost Hillary Clinton the election.”

“Listen, if you care about Democrats digging out of the hole that they have put themselves in now, you’ve got to ask yourself; what have Democrats done to so offend Americans that they only have 11 governorships, they’ve lost control of the Senate, they’ve lost control of the House, they lost 900 legislative seats over the past six years?”

“It wasn’t fake news. It was something much, much bigger.”

Meanwhile, Joe’s deflated co-host, Mika Brzezinski, could only muster this response: “Ugh, I don’t think people are ready to hear that, Joe.”

Clinton addresses the ‘epidemic of fake news’ https://t.co/DlbqxmyfJJ

— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) December 9, 2016

…read more

Source: Joe Scarborough: ‘Hillary Clinton Cost Hillary Clinton the Election,’ Not Fake News

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FedEx CEO Fred Smith is warning about the dangers of clamping down on free trade, especially tearing up NAFTA, or the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. …read more

Source: FedEx CEO: Tearing up NAFTA would be ‘catastrophic’

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Middle East Eye via TheAntiMedia.org,

According to leaked documents released by Edward Snowden, British intelligence spied on Israeli diplomats and military officials in 2008 and 2009, the French newspaper Le Monde and Israel’s Haaretz reported on Wednesday.

One of the files from 2009 said that “Britain’s GCHQ intelligence-gathering apparatus defined Israel as ‘a true threat’ to the Middle East”.

“The Israelis constitute a true threat to regional security, notably because of the country’s position on the Iran issue,” the file said.

The UK spy agency gathered data on the “second-highest ranking official in the Israeli foreign ministry”, who went unidentified by Le Monde and Haaretz. The two outlets also said that the UK gathered surveillance on the Palestinian Authority.

GCHQ tapped the phone of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in December 2008, weeks before Israel launched an offensive the following month.

GCHQ also monitored emails between Israel’s ambassadors to Kenya and Nigeria and the private Israel defence company Ophir Optronics.

During those two years, the UK spied on the Palestinian Liberation Organisation’s secretary general and several Palestinian diplomatic delegations, including former Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qurei and Israeli-Palestinian parliamentarian Dr Ahmad Tibi.

The documents were released by Edward Snowden, the 33-year-old who is wanted in the US to face trial on charges brought under the Espionage Act after he leaked thousands of classified documents in 2013 revealing the vast US surveillance of private data put in place after the 11 September 2001 attacks.

…read more

Source: Snowden Leak: British Intelligence Calls Israel "True Threat" To Middle East

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There’s a long list of companies that Donald Trump has publicly attacked. But you know what they say about there being no such thing as bad publicity? Shares of companies Trump has criticized are beating the market since the election. …read more

Source: Stocks Trump bashed are soaring

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By Tyler Durden

According to a memo from Trump’s energy advisors, and obtained by Bloomberg, the new administration will be seeking significant changes to Obama’s Energy Department. Per Bloomberg, the Trump team submitted a list of 65 questions to the agency that requested information on everything from how to keep aging nuclear plants online to a list of employees and contractors that attended the United Nations climate meetings and helped develop Obama’s climate change policies.

Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are developing plans to reshape Energy Department programs, help keep aging nuclear plants online and identify staff who played a role in promoting President Barack Obama’s climate agenda.

The transition team has asked the agency to list employees and contractors who attended United Nations climate meetings, along with those who helped develop the Obama administration’s social cost of carbon metrics, used to estimate and justify the climate benefits of new rules. The advisers are also seeking information on agency loan programs, research activities and the basis for its statistics, according to a five-page internal document circulated by the Energy Department on Wednesday. The document lays out 65 questions from the Trump transition team, sources within the agency said.

The Obama administration’s policies targeted at providing loan guarantees to “clean-energy incubators” are set to receive significant scrutiny according to the list of questions. Many such projects were funded by the “Advanced Research Projects Agency” which has provided $1.3 billion in funding over 7 years for everything from batteries to biofuel production to wind turbines.

Under Obama, the department played a major role advancing clean-energy technology through loan guarantees and incubators, while writing efficiency rules for appliances. The department leans heavily on tens of thousands of contractors, who supplement the work of its roughly 13,000 direct employees.

The transition team questions includes perfunctory requests to identify current advisory committees, pending procurement decisions and positions subject to Senate confirmation — information critical to ensuring the agency’s functions before and after Trump is sworn in.

The document also signals which of the department’s agencies could face the toughest scrutiny under the new administration. Among them: the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, a 7-year-old unit that has been a critical instrument for the Obama administration to advance clean-energy technologies.

Since going into operation in 2009, ARPA-E, as it is known, has provided about $1.3 billion in funding to more than 475 projects involving grid-scale batteries, power storage, biofuel production, wind turbines and other technology, according to a May report on the agency. Trump’s energy landing team is seeking “a complete list of ARPA-E’s projects” and wants information about the “Mission Innovation” and “Clean Energy Ministerial” efforts within the department.

The memo also hints at plans to go after funding for technologies that only exist courtesy of taxpayer-funded subsidies.

The group also questions whether any technologies or products that have emerged from Energy Department programs “are currently offered in the market without any subsidy” and asks “what mechanisms exist to help the national laboratories commercialize their scientific and
technological …read more

Source: Trump Memo Reveals Plans For Massive Shake-Up At Energy Department

    

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