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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Trader Exclaims "Markets Are In An Alternate Universe"

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By Tyler Durden

Events were breaking yesterday, but as Bloomberg's Richard Breslow mocks, not nearly as quickly as the narrative that tried valiantly to explain the price action.

After the fact. We all know what happened. The Italian referendum sent the euro and risk into the sewer in the hours following the result.

Everything stabilized smartly when European markets opened and liquidity was there to be had. Then the Christmas mindset took over and markets decided the calendar was, for now, temptingly free of known black swan events and it was off to the races.

From a trader’s point of view, it was much simpler. They did all the obvious trades they thought they were supposed to do. Added at chart points that screamed lighten up. And then got their eyes ripped out. Why should December break the trading patterns that have played out so many times over the course of the year?

So far we’re on familiar ground. But what struck me was the speed with which the ECB story spun out. Not insignificant ahead of an impending governing council meeting. And one President Draghi will be unlikely to skate through with “mañana”.

We began with Italy and maybe the whole of Europe is in deep trouble. So horrid, at a time when monetary policy is losing its effectiveness. Followed by, buy-the-dip with both hands Eurex action which prompted shamefaced talk of the Draghi put. “How could we have forgotten”? Only to be succeeded by sombre warnings of the impending taper. Capital key changes to tapering at warp speed.

This has been a momentum-driven market rather than one driven by well-reasoned fundamental analysis. It’s amazing what pseudo-intellectual havoc can be caused by a couple hundred points bounce in the DAX and euro.

Two things have indeed importantly changed, however:

1.The charts look very different today. Once again being short EUR/USD near 1.05 has been painfully expensive. Quintuple bottom? The re-test and utter rejection of the 200-day moving average in EUR/JPY is also impressive.

2. The bar for a market panic on any mention of a possible tapering, or even the mere theoretical discussion of a future tapering — no matter if surrounded by APP extension and the like — has been lowered. Markets are on bond yield edge. If global rates continue to nudge higher, those pesky economics models will see inflation expectations lurking everywhere.

…read more

Source: Trader Exclaims "Markets Are In An Alternate Universe"

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Trump claims credit for $50B investment by SoftBank

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President-elect Trump is claiming credit for a $50 billion investment in the United States by a Japanese tech conglomerate — a deal he says wouldn’t have happened if he hadn’t won the election. …read more

Source: Trump claims credit for $50B investment by SoftBank

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Trump claims credit for $50B investment by SoftBank

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President-elect Trump is claiming credit for a $50 billion investment in the United States by a Japanese tech conglomerate — a deal he says wouldn’t have happened if he hadn’t won the election. …read more

Source: Trump claims credit for $50B investment by SoftBank

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Pandora-Sirius XM deal could make sweet music

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for latest details. …read more

Source: Pandora-Sirius XM deal could make sweet music

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The VIX FOMC Setup (Video)

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By EconMatters

By EconMatters


We discuss a VIX Trading Setup into the FOMC Meeting next week, with the option to rollover into the January contract as we expect a significant spike in the VIX over the next 6-8 weeks. Buy the VIX into the FOMC Rate Hike Meeting next week at these low levels!

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

…read more

Source: The VIX FOMC Setup (Video)

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The Dramatic Impact Of Surging Rates On Housing And Refis In One Chart

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By Tyler Durden

To visualize the impact the recent spike in mortgage rates will have on the US housing market in general, and home refinancing activity in particular, look no further than this chart from the October Mortgage Monitor slidepack by Black Knight.

The chart profiles the sudden collapse of the refi market using October and November rates. As Black Knight writes, it looks at the – quite dramatic – effect the mortgage rate rise has had on the population of borrowers who could both likely qualify for and have interest rate incentive to refinance. It finds it was cut in half in just one month.

Some more details from the source:

  • The results of the U.S. presidential election triggered a treasury bond selloff, resulting in a corresponding rise in both 10-year treasury and 30-year mortgage interest rates
  • Mortgage rates have jumped 49 BPS in the 3 weeks following the election, cutting the population of refinanceable borrowers from 8.3 million immediately prior to the election to a total of just 4 million, matching a 24-month low set back in July 2015
  • Though there are still 2M borrowers who could save $200+/month by refinancing and a cumulative $1B/month in potential savings, this is less than half of the $2.1B/ month available just four weeks ago
  • The last time the refinanceable population was this small, refi volumes were 37 percent below Q3 2016 levels

Which is bad news not only for homeowners, but also for the banks, whose refi pipeline – a steady source of income and easy profit – is about to vaporize.

It’s not just refinancings, however, According to the report, as housing expert Mark Hanson notes, here is a summary of the adverse impact the spike in yields will also have on home purchases:

  • Overall purchase origination growth is slowing, from 23% in Q3’15 to 7% in Q3’16.
  • The highest degree of slowing – and currently the slowest growing segment of the market – is among high credit borrowers (740+ credit scores).
  • The 740+ segment has been mainly responsible for the overall recovery in purchase volumes and in fact, currently accounts for 2/3 of all purchase lending in the market today.
  • Since Q3’15 the growth rate in this segment has dropped from 27% annually to 5% in Q3’16. (NOTE, Q3/Q4’15 included TRID & interest rate volatility making it an easy comp).
  • This naturally raises the question of whether we are nearing full saturation of this market segment.
  • Low credit score growth is still relatively slow, and only accounts of 15% of all lending (as compared to 40% from 2000-2006), the lowest share of purchase originations for this group on record.
    ITEM 2) The “Refi Capital Conveyor Belt” has ground to a halt, which will be felt across consumer spend. AND Rates are much higher now than in October when this sampling was done.

Source

Tony Blair Warns Of "Perilous" Times For "Fragile" Western Democracies

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By Tyler Durden

Tony Blair

A few days ago we wrote an article asking how stable the world’s democracies really were and noted the opinion of at least one Harvard historian who saw extreme risk related to the global wave of anti-establishment sentiment (see “How Stable Are The World’s Democracies? – ‘Warning Signs Are Flashing Red’“). Apparently Tony Blair, the former British Prime Minister, agrees that the political upheaval from Brexit to Trump to the collapse of the Italian government on Sunday signal the most dangerous time for Western democracies in decades.

Per the USA Today, in speaking to a group of business leaders at the No Labels conference, Blair noted being startled by the number of people “longing” for an authoritarian leader saying “it’s amazing how many people you will find who will reference a style
of leadership of (Russian) President Putin in a positive way.”

“It does feel perilous, actually, because I think there are decisions that are being taken of vast moment in circumstances where systems are fragile,” he told Capital Download on Monday. “And that is troubling.”

Of particular concern to him is a “longing” for an authoritarian leader.

“It’s amazing how many people you will find who will reference a style of leadership of (Russian) President Putin in a positive way,” he told USA TODAY’s weekly video newsmaker series. “I think people want their country moving and they think that if the present system is not moving it, and not making the changes that they want to see, then maybe someone who just says, ‘I don’t care what anyone thinks; I’m just going to go for it, and this is what I’m going to do’ — that has a certain attraction.

“If the center isn’t a place of strength and vitality, and it looks kind of flabby and just managing the status quo, then you’re at risk of someone coming along and doing that.”

Blair also noted an “immense amount of anger at the established ways of doing things,” something he attributed, at least in part, to social media and the rise of “fake news.” Blair went on to warn that the new wave of media “locks people into conversations with people who just agree with
them, and who then have a general conspiracy-theory view of the rest of
the world.” Yes, we suspect that the new wave of media would be frightening to established politicians who are used to exercising complete control over the media narrative.

“There is immense amount of anger at established ways of doing things,” Blair said. “There is, I think, a whole group of people who feel ignored by those in power, that is for sure true. There is more anger around in politics than for a long time.” While issues such as immigration aren’t new, there is “much greater skepticism towards globalization and the benefits of it.”

What’s more, “social media is a revolutionary phenomenon,” he went on. “It changes the way politics works. It changes the way the …read more

Source: Tony Blair Warns Of "Perilous" Times For "Fragile" Western Democracies

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The hashtag of the year had nothing to do with Trump

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On Twitter, it was the year of the Olympics, the Election and PokemonGo. …read more

Source: The hashtag of the year had nothing to do with Trump

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Michigan Republicans File Emergency Motion To Halt Recount As Another Major Snag Emerges

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By Tyler Durden

The Michigan Republican Party filed emergency motions with the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals early on Tuesday, seeking a stay of a federal judge’s order that started a statewide presidential recount in Michigan on Monday and asking for an “en banc” review of that order by all the judges of the 6th Circuit in Cincinnati. As the DFP notes, normally, appeals go to a three-judge panel of the court. A stay from the 6th Circuit would halt the Michigan recount until appeals judges have a chance to review Monday’s order by U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith.

The question for the appeals court to consider, lawyers for the Michigan GOP said, is whether Green Party candidate Jill Stein is constitutionally entitled to a statewide recount “without any evidence that the election was affected … by fraud or other impropriety.” The party gave notice Monday it would appeal the ruling Goldsmith made after a rare Sunday hearing in Detroit. It’s not clear whether or how quickly the 6th Circuit will take up the case.

Goldsmith cited a threat that unless the recount started at noon Monday, there was a credible threat that Michigan votes would not be counted, because the recount would not be completed by Dec. 13 – a deadline set out in federal law that guarantees the electors Michigan certifies for the electoral college will be accepted by Congress.

Republicans argue Stein, as a fourth-place finisher to President-elect Donald Trump, has no grounds to request a costly recount, that she waited too long to request the recount, and that the federal courts shouldn’t be getting involved in a question of state law.

Meanwhile, in a separate report by the Detroit News we learned that in a parallel development the Michigan recount hit a major snag today, as Wayne County officials indicated that as many as half of Detroit’s precincts may not be eligible to participate in the recount. Under Michigan law, a precinct can’t be recounted if the poll book and ballot box numbers don’t match, unless there is a valid explanation. In such cases, the results from the original election night tally stand.

The officials announced that they are not yet able to reconcile 392 of the 662 precincts in heavily Democratic Detroit. A total of 610 out of 1,680 precincts in Wayne County cannot currently be reconciled. Comments by Detroit officials suggested that nobody is quite sure how to proceed in light of the widespread problems:

“It’s not good,” conceded Daniel Baxter, elections director for the city of Detroit.

He blamed the discrepancies on the city’s decade-old voting machines, saying 87 optical scanners broke on Election Day. Many jammed when voters fed ballots into scanners, which can result in erroneous vote counts if ballots are inserted multiple times. Poll workers are supposed to adjust counters to reflect a single vote but in many cases failed to do so, causing the discrepancies, Baxter said.

Baxter stated his belief that when they are actually able to open the boxes …read more

Source: Michigan Republicans File Emergency Motion To Halt Recount As Another Major Snag Emerges

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Frontrunning: December 6

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By Tyler Durden

  • Trump heads back out on road for ‘thank you’ tour (AP)
  • For Europe’s Unity, 2017 Will Be a Year of Reckoning (WSJ)
  • Oil dips as OPEC, Russian output rises ahead of production cut (Reuters)
  • The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017 (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Message Sparks Anger in China (WSJ)
  • Brazil’s Reform Plan in Disarray After Senate Chief Removed (BBG)
  • China urges U.S. to block transit by Taiwan president (Reuters)
  • Wooed by Trump, Taiwan Trembles (WSJ)
  • SoftBank’s Son Said to Plan Meeting With Trump in New York (BBG)
  • Syrian government, ally Russia warn rebels in city of Aleppo (AP)
  • Blackstone Going Public on $10 Billion Foreclosures Bet (WSJ)
  • A Cheat Sheet on the Deglobalization of the Financial World (BBG)
  • One Historic Lens Says Trump Stock Market Lovefest Just Starting (BBG)
  • U.S. ‘Disappointed’ by Japan’s Plan to Cut Drug Costs (WSJ)
  • Family’s $29 Billion Fortune Claim Denied Amid India’s Tax Hunt (BBG)
  • Orban allies tighten media grip ahead of Hungary election (Reuters)
  • U.S. seeks to reassure Beijing after Trump call with Taiwan leader (Reuters)
  • Theranos Foresaw Huge Growth in Revenue and Profits (WSJ)
  • Rouhani says Iran will not let Trump rip up nuclear deal (Reuters)
  • Danish police arrest suspect after policeman shot in head (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The verbal confrontation between President-elect Donald Trump and the Chinese government escalated on Monday, as China responded harshly to attacks by Trump on its economic and security positions. http://on.wsj.com/2ge4jXO

– Amazon.com Inc unveiled Monday its first small-format grocery store, Amazon Go, one of at least three brick-and-mortar formats the online retail giant is exploring as it makes a play for an area of shopping that remains stubbornly in-store. http://on.wsj.com/2haHTIQ

– The euro rallied from early losses following Italian voters’ rejection of government-backed constitutional changes, but the volatile day raises concerns about how the currency survives an era of populist politicians and diverging economies. http://on.wsj.com/2h1qv8W

– A day after the Obama administration put the brakes on a Midwest oil pipeline by denying a permit needed to finish the route, a spokesman for President-elect Donald Trump said the incoming administration supports completing the project. http://on.wsj.com/2gZxrRe

– President-elect Donald Trump said he will nominate retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson as secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, a move that would place a former political adversary with little housing-policy expertise in a key administration post. http://on.wsj.com/2h9PXt5

– Investor materials show Theranos projected revenue of nearly $2 billion and net income of about $505 million this year. http://on.wsj.com/2h1bCmU

– Euroskeptic parties vary in their prescriptions but are putting pressure on mainstream politicians to address perceived flaws in the EU and common currency. Elections next year in several European nations will go far to determine the fate of continental integration. http://on.wsj.com/2h9SPSS

– New Zealand is facing a leadership contest following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister John Key that will pit his deputy, a former party leader, against at least two other prominent members. http://on.wsj.com/2gXlCe2

– The U.S. Senate …read more

Source: Frontrunning: December 6

    

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Posted December 6th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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