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By Tyler Durden

Less than two months ago, after the Algiers meeting but before the Vienna OPEC summit when speculation was rife that the cartel would be unable to reach a deal to cut production, we reported that “US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007” in which we wrote that “while OPEC has been busy desperately jawboning oil higher, US producers have been worried about oil’s reacquaintance with gravity. As a result, as the EIA reports, the amount of WTI short positions held be producers and merchants is just shy of a decade high.”

So now that the OPEC deal is done, if only on paper with formal implementation and compliance checks still up in the air until February 2017 at the earliest, have producers changed their tune?

One look at the changes to the oil strip (shown below) reveals that the answer is no, and as Bloomberg reports, “U.S. shale oil companies are using the post-OPEC rally to hedge their oil price risk for next year and 2018 above $50 a barrel, bankers, merchants and brokers said, pushing the forward oil curve upside down.”

This rush to hedge could lead to a materialization of the biggest risk – and threat – to the OPEC deal: much higher U.S. oil production in 2017, offsetting the first OPEC production output cut in eight years. As such, the producer group could end throwing a life-line to a sector it once tried to crush.

Confirming that while speculators, many of whom have been squeezed as a result of a recent surge in short bets, have thrown in the towel on lower prices for the time being, producers are once again skeptical that the higher prices will prove sustainable: “Right after OPEC, U.S. producers were very active hedging,” said Ben Freeman, founder of HudsonField LLC, a boutique oil merchant with offices in New York and Houston. “We are going to see a significant amount of producer hedging at this levels.”

The hedging pressure triggered violent movements across the price curve. As shale firms sold oil for delivery next year and early 2018 the curve has notably flattened, leading to the first backwardation since 2014 as we observed last week. Sure enough, as Bloomberg highlights today “WTI for delivery in December 2017 is now more expensive than in June 2018- a condition known as backwardation. A week ago, the forward curve was in the opposite shape, known as contango.”

“The curve is screaming producer hedging,” said Adam Ritchie, founder of consultant AR Oil Consulting and a former trading executive at Caltex Australia Ltd. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Another take came from Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity strategy at BNP, who said that“The longer dated flattening in the futures curve does indeed reflect to a large extent increased producers activity, hedging on the back of the pop up in spot prices that followed the announcement of an output cut by OPEC.”

In the past year we have shown on various occasions that $50 …read more

Source: "The Curve Is Screaming Producer Hedging" – Shale Companies Scramble To Lock In Oil Prices

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for latest details. …read more

Source: India’s $29 billion tax mystery

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By Tyler Durden

As the “fake news” narrative grows, and The House quietly passes a bill to “counter Russian propoganda” websites, one alleged ‘fake’ news wesbite – as defined by the farcical PropOrNot organization – has struck back. Naked Capitalism’s Yves Smith has threatened The Washington Post with a defamation suit and demanded a retraction.

As the lawyers like to say, res ipsa loquitur. Please tweet and circulate this letter widely. You will notice that our attorney Jim Moody is a seasoned litigator who has won cases before the Supreme Court. He has considerable experience in First Amendment and defamation actions. Past high profile representations include Westomoreland v. CBS and defending Linda Tripp.

I also hope, particularly for those of you who don’t regularly visit Naked Capitalism, that you’ll check out our related pieces that give more color to how the fact the Washington Post was taken for a ride by inept propagandists, particularly our introduction to our spoof PropOrNot.org site, which uses the PropOrNot project as an example of sorely deficient propaganda and shows where it went wrong, or the humor site itself. Be sure not to miss its FAQ.

We have another post today that describes how the few things that are verifiable on the PropOrNot site don’t pan out, as in the organization is not simply a group of inept propagandists but also appears to deal solely in fabrications.

If the site is flagrantly false with respect to things that can be checked, why pray tell did the Washington Post and its fellow useful idiots in the mainstream media validate and amplify its message? Strong claims demand strong proofs, yet the Post appeared content to give a megaphone to people who make stuff up with abandon. No wonder the members of PropOrNot hide as much as they can about what they are up to; more transparency would expose their work to be a tissue of lies.

We fully endorse Yves Smith’s efforts.

Additionally, we note that the only reason we haven’t followed up with a similar action is because i) the allegations were so laughable, and ii) there is too much other stuff going on.

…read more

Source: "Fake News" Site Threatens Washington Post With Defamation Suit, Demands Retraction

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By Tyler Durden

While the market overcame its initial scare following yesterday’s counter-establishment Italian referendum vote, and European stocks proceeded to not only make up all losses, but soar in the overnight session by the most since Trump’s presidential victory, what happens next in Italy is largely unknown. What follows are Goldman’s snap thoughts on the Italian next steps.

First, a quick recap of what has happened in yesterday’s referendum in which many more Italians than expected turned up to reject the proposed reforms, leading PM Renzi to announce his resignation later today. The odds of a general election have risen from one-in-five to one-in four, according to Goldman. Despite yesterday’s outcome, Renzi remains the most popular politician on the centre-left. More importantly, the outcome of the vote lowers the chances of a market-driven solution for the ailing Italian banks, and in turn increases the likelihood of a State-led restructuring Goldman notes.

Here are the details:

In a national confirmative referendum held yesterday, Italian voters rejected a Constitutional reform bill sponsored by the coalition government of Mr Renzi and passed by Parliament in April. The referendum was called because the bill had failed to receive the quorum of 2/3 of MPs in its final reading.

The outcome of the referendum was in line with opinion polls in the run-up to the vote. These had been suggesting that the ‘Vote No’ side would win by some distance. Two elements are new, however (all numbers based on quasi-final vote count):

• At 59.1%, the percentage of voters rejecting the reform bill was 5 percentage points higher than projected by opinion polls going into the referendum (55%). This outcome represents a much starker victory for the ‘Vote No’ camp than generally envisaged. Goldman assumed that the odds favoured a ‘Vote No’ win only marginally (55%), and that the gap between the two sides would be small, within 10 percentage points rather than the realised 20.
• The voter turnout was 10 percentage points higher than projected by pollsters (65.5% vs. 55%), with close to 33 million people casting their vote (19.4 million voted ‘No’ and 13.4 million ‘Yes’). By comparison, the turnout in the UK Brexit vote was 72.2% (corresponding to 33.6 million people) while in the Italian 2006 referendum on Constitutional reforms, which also saw the amendments being rejected, the turnout was 52.3%.

A first analysis of the vote breakdown suggests that the electorate largely acted on political priors. Specifically:

• In polling districts where opposition right-wing parties and the 5 Star Movement gathered higher consensus back in 2013 (Southern Italy, alongside some areas in the North), the ‘Vote No’ camp has achieved its best results, reaching as much as 70% of the vote share.
• In the South, the ‘No’ vote outnumbered the ‘Yes’ by a remarkably ample margin (more than 40%) in Sicily and Sardinia, where the 5 Star Movement managed to outperform the Democratic Party in the 2013 general election.
• The constitutional reform has been largely rejected also in the North-East of the country, a stronghold of the Euro-sceptical Northern League. The ‘Vote No’ …read more

  Source: What Happens Next In Italy: Here Is Goldman’s Take

      

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Indian tax authorities are investigating a Mumbai family who claimed to owe $29 billion in untaxed income. …read more

Source: India’s tax mystery: Why did one family declare $29B?

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President-elect Donald Trump has revived some China-bashing lines from the campaign, but the misleading claims still puzzle economists. …read more

Source: Trump’s attack on China misses the mark

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

“I have in my possession a secret map, made in Germany by Hitler’s government — by the planners of the New World Order,” FDR told the nation in his Navy Day radio address of Oct. 27, 1941.

“It is a map of South America as Hitler proposes to reorganize it. The geographical experts of Berlin, however, have ruthlessly obliterated all the existing boundary lines … bringing the whole continent under their domination,” said Roosevelt. “This map makes clear the Nazi design not only against South America but against the United States as well.”

Our leader had another terrifying secret document, “made in Germany by Hitler’s government. …

“It is a plan to abolish all existing religions — Protestant, Catholic, Mohammedan, Hindu, Buddhist and Jewish alike. … In the place of the churches of our civilization, there is to be set up an international Nazi Church…

“In the place of the Bible, the words of ‘Mein Kampf’ will be imposed and enforced as Holy Writ. And in place of the cross of Christ will be put two symbols — the swastika and the naked sword. … A god of blood and iron will take the place of the God of love and mercy.”

The source of these astounding secret Nazi plans?

They were forgeries by British agents in New York operating under William Stephenson, Churchill’s “Man Called Intrepid,” whose assignment was to do whatever necessary to bring the U.S. into Britain’s war.

FDR began his address by describing two German submarine attacks on U.S. destroyers Greer and Kearny, the later of which had been torpedoed with a loss of 11 American lives.

Said FDR: “We have wished to avoid shooting. But the shooting has started. And history has recorded who fired the first shot.”

The truth: Greer and Kearny had been tracking German subs for British planes dropping depth charges.

It was FDR who desperately wanted war with Germany, while, for all his crimes, Hitler desperately wanted to avoid war with the United States.

Said Cong. Clare Boothe Luce, FDR “lied us into war because he did not have the political courage to lead us into it.”

By late 1941, most Americans still wanted to stay out of the war. They believed “lying British propaganda” about Belgian babies being tossed around on German bayonets had sucked us into World War I, from which the British Empire had benefited mightily.

What brings these episodes to mind is the wave of indignation sweeping this capital over “fake news” allegedly created by Vladimir Putin’s old KGB comrades, and regurgitated by U.S. individuals, websites and magazines that are anti-interventionist and anti-war.

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman says the “propaganda and disinformation threat” against America is real, and we must “counter and combat it.” Congress is working up a $160 million State Department program.

Now, Americans should be on guard against “fake news” and foreign meddling in U.S. elections.

Yet it is often our own allies, like the Brits, and our own leaders who mislead and lie us into unnecessary wars. And is …read more

Source: Fake News And War Party Lies

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By Tyler Durden

For a nation stuffed full of credit-fuelled potemkin ponzi schemes, ghost cities, and fake Eiffel Towers, why would the construction of the world's first 1:1 replica Titanic surprise anyone…

As Sina.com reports, the project, with all the features of the Titanic, including the banquet hall, theater and other performances, is located in Chengdu and represents a total investment of more than Yuan 10 billion.

“probably nothing.”

…read more

Source: Forget Ghost Cities, China Builds 10-Billion-Yuan Replica Titanic

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On the same day Matteo Renzi suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of alleged “populists” in Italy, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble ruled out debt relief for Greece ahead of a eurozone finance minister meeting.

Schäuble says Greece Must Reform or Leave Eurozone.

Greece must implement economic reforms if it is to keep its place in the eurozone, Germany’s finance minister has insisted, ruling out debt relief for the country ahead of a crucial euro group meeting on Monday.

As the finance ministers of member states using the single currency prepared to discuss fiscal plans for the coming year, Wolfgang Schäuble in effect presented Greece with an ultimatum: either it must enforce unpopular structural reforms or exit the bloc.

“Athens must finally implement the needed reforms,” he told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag in an interview [in German] published on Sunday.

“If Greece wants to stay in the euro, there is no way around it – in fact completely regardless of the debt level.”

Asked if German voters should be prepared for the inevitability of debt relief in the run-up to national elections next year, Schäuble quipped: “That would not help Greece.”

Schäuble, who also asserted the Greek budget was not burdened by debt servicing because interest rates were now so low, made the comments as speculation mounted over how best to put the thrice-bailed-out nation back on the road to economic recovery.

Facts of the Matter

1. Greece has an unsustainable €330bn debt load.
2. On May 6, In Leaked Letter IMF Tells Germany “Debt Relief for Greece or IMF Drops Out”.
3. On May 23, the leaked letter became an official announcement: The IMF warned “EU Must Give Greece Unconditional Debt Relief”.

In a strongly worded assessment, the IMF said that there was no prospect of Greece meeting the draconian terms of its current bailout plan and that interest payments on the soaring national debt would eat up 60% of the budget by 2060 in the absence of debt forgiveness.

The debt sustainability analysis by the Washington-based Fund said Greece should have longer to pay, have the interest rate on its loans fixed at 1.5%, and that its creditors should make debt relief automatic once the bailout programme ends in 2018.

“The implementation of debt relief should be completed by the end of the programme period”, the IMF said.

The IMF said that Greece’s national debt as a share of GDP would fall from just over 180% this year to around 140% by 2030 if debt relief was provided. The alternative, it added, was that Greece would face an ever-higher bill for servicing its rising debts.

Consequences

If Greece does not get debt relief, the IMF said it would drop out of the program.

If the IMF drops out of the program, Germany will have to pony up more money.

At one point the IMF worried about Greece having debt to the tune of 110% of GDP. Now, 140% seems acceptable …read more

Source: Great Timing Award: Wolfgang Schäuble Says "Greece Must Reform Or Leave Eurozone"

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By globalintelhub

You’ve gotta give them credit. The plot, the plan, the conspiracy – it’s really well thought out, well funded – well executed. Bravo! It’s like a well planned ballet. In ballet, to acheive excellence, complete cooperation and syncrhonicity is required. Look what I found in my Twitter today from some Big Lebowski zombie:

FAKE NEWS @Twitter https://t.co/XoqS64iTfU

— Ross Sclafani (@RossSclafani) December 4, 2016

The ‘fake news’ in question was from a Zero Hedge article “Why the Elite Hate Russia” that was written by Global Intel Hub during the election, in order to counterbalance some of the “Russian Propaganda” coming from the CIA/Illuminati basement in rural Virginia (you know the location).

They are moving so quickly to put the genie back in the bottle it’s alarming. The DOD originally created the internet initially for legitimate military purposes (secure communication) and as an aside wireless technology was developed during world war 2 and actively used in combat (field phones). Anyway once the internet was ‘released’ it clearly was a mistake, but not something they could stop. Even a Rockefeller himself admitted ‘it would be better if the internet didn’t exist:’

First things first, read this article by a New Yorker reporter who seems to be a mainstream journalist that has actually investigated Russian Propaganda as it exists in the ‘real’ world, not as created by Rockefellers in USA in a Hollywood Studio:

I can report that the spokesman was an American man, probably in his thirties or forties, who was well versed in Internet culture and swore enthusiastically. He said that the group numbered about forty people. “I can say we have people who work for major tech companies and people who have worked for the government in different regards, but we’re all acting in a private capacity,” he said. “One thing we’re all in agreement about is that Russia should not be able to fuck with the American people. That is not cool.” The spokesman said that the group began with fewer than a dozen members, who came together while following Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine. The crisis was accompanied by a flood of disinformation designed to confuse Ukraine and its allies. “That was a big wake-up call to us. It’s like, wait a minute, Russia is creating this very effective fake-news propaganda in conjunction with their military operation on the ground,” the spokesman said. “My God, if they can do that there, why can’t they do it here?” PropOrNot has said that the group includes Ukrainian-Americans, though the spokesman laughed at the suggestion that they were Ukrainian agents. PropOrNot has claimed total financial and editorial independence.

Given PropOrNot’s shadowy nature and the shoddiness of its work, I was puzzled by the group’s claim to have worked with Senator Ron Wyden’s office. In an e-mail, Keith Chu, a spokesman for Wyden, told me that the PropOrNot team reached out to the office in late …read more

Source: Fake News Meme Going Viral

    

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