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Ted Cruz Booed For Refusing To Endorse Trump; Heidi Cruz Escorted Out To Shouts Of "Goldman Sachs"

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By Tyler Durden

Those who had predicted that the third day of the RNC would unveil with yet another scandal, they were right.

Moments ago, Donald Trump’s former rival, Ted Cruz was roundly booed after failing to endorse Trump during an address to the Republican National Convention, an obvious jab from the Texas lawmaker at the real estate mogul, who tormented him as “Lyin’ Ted” during the primary.

Instead of urging the crowd to vote for Tump, Cruz instead told delegates and voters to “vote your conscience” in November and never specifically said that people should cast their ballots for the Republican nominee. During the course of his speech, Cruz only mentioned Trump once, to congratulate him on getting the nomination.

“To those listening, please, don’t stay home in November. If you love our country, and love your children as much as I know you do, stand, and speak, and vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution,” Cruz said. As he continued speaking, and the crowd began to realize that an endorsement seemed less likely, the cheers that marked the early part of the speech became boos.

“I appreciate the enthusiasm of the New York delegation,” Cruz said to the vocal Trump home-state supporters who were placed right in front of the stage. They were yelling “We want Trump! We want Trump!”

One reason why Cruz’ speech was among the most anticipated, is due to the level of vitriol that enveloped the closing days of the GOP primary campaign. Trump labeled Cruz “Lyin’ Ted,” falsely accused his father of being involved in the assassination of President Kennedy, and threatened to “spill the beans” on Cruz’s wife, Heidi. In turn, Cruz called Trump a “sniveling coward,” a “pathological liar” and a “narcissist at a level that I don’t think this country has ever seen.”

Cruz’s wife, Heidi, was seen leaving the arena when the booing started getting very loud. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli told ABC News that he escorted Heidi Cruz out of the convention hall because “it was volatile and the Trump folks were physically approaching and confrontationally yelling,” he said via text.

According to CNN’s Manu Raju, as Heidi was being escorted out, one angry Trump supporter was shouting “Goldman Sachs” at her.

Angry Ken Cuccinelli escorting Heidi Cruz out as Trump supporters yell at her pic.twitter.com/G6USuhoSx2

— Graham Moomaw (@gmoomaw) July 21, 2016

HEIDI CRUZ escorted out by security as crowd gets angry at Cruz for his speech. One Trump supporter shouting “Goldman Sachs!” at her

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 21, 2016

After leaving the floor, Heidi Cruz also reportedly got into a verbal altercation with the head of the Washington delegation, who had berated Ted Cruz following his speech.

Or perhaps it was all intentional, and yet another dramatic sequence orchestrated to provide the next speaker, Trump’s son Eric, with a crowd that needed an outlet for …read more

Source: Ted Cruz Booed For Refusing To Endorse Trump; Heidi Cruz Escorted Out To Shouts Of "Goldman Sachs"

    

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US To Seize $1 Billion In Embezzled Malaysian Assets Which Goldman Sachs Helped Buy

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By Tyler Durden

The last time we wrote about the long-running saga of the scandalous collapse and constant corruption at the Malaysian state wealth fund, 1MDB, which also happened to be an unconfirmed slush fund for president Najib, was a month ago when we learned that the NY bank regulator was looking into fundraising by the fund’s favorite bank, Goldman Sachs. Then overnight, the story which already seemed like it has every possible angle of crime and corruption covered for a series of Hollywood action-adventure blockbusters, got a new twist when the DOJ announced it would seek to seize some $1 billion in assets from individuals affiliated with the fun as part of one of the largest seizures in US history.

The expected asset seizures would be the U.S. government’s first action tied to the 1MDB investigation. Among the properties the US is looking to confiscate, are Van Gogh paintings, Beverly Hills properties, a private jet, ultra high end real estate in NYC and LA, and the rights to profits from the hit movie The Wolf of Wall Street.

The move by U.S. authorities to seize assets tied to an investment fund run by a foreign government would be a major escalation in Washington’s global efforts to fight corruption and block allegedly illegally obtained funds, facilitated by Goldman Sachs, from moving through the world’s financial system the WSJ adds.

The case represents the most detailed and sweeping allegations to be brought in the multinational probe into a global scheme to siphon more than $3.5bn from the Malaysian government fund. As the FT adds, it is also the first time Malay prime minister, Najib Razak, has been officially tied to the scandal, and while he has not been by name in court documents the description of “Malaysian Official 1” matches his biography and job responsibilities. In what may develop into a major diplomatic row, the DOJ states that that “official” received funds misappropriated from 1MDB, prosecutors say. Najib has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

The actions by U.S. authorities also threaten to upend the country’s relationship with Malaysia, a moderate Muslim nation that has long been an important U.S. ally in Southeast Asia, and may force Malaysia to enter China’s sphere of influence in exchange for protection from US retaliation. Malaysia has deep ties to the Middle East and has been seen as a bulwark against China, which has increasingly asserted its power across Asia. President Barack Obama cultivated a relationship with Mr. Najib, including playing golf together in Hawaii over the Christmas holidays in 2014, something we reported at the time.

Amid the controversy, the Malaysian leader now was likely to focus on his domestic political survival rather than retaliate against the Obama administration, said James Keith, US ambassador to Malaysia from 2007 to 2010. Malaysia is a key regional partner for the US, backing a proposed trans-Pacific trade deal and hosting a digital centre to counter Islamic State propaganda. “I don’t think this is unexpected from Najib’s perspective,” said Mr Keith. …read more

Source: US To Seize $1 Billion In Embezzled Malaysian Assets Which Goldman Sachs Helped Buy

    

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Visualizing The Volatile History Of Crude Oil Markets

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By Tyler Durden

Crude oil is the world’s most actively traded commodity (and today’s chaos evidenced that perfectly), and oil-related markets are a staple for traders, hedgers, investors around the globe. The below infographic, put together by Aspect, covers the history of crude oil trading, while also highlighting the major events that have shaped the landscape of the oil market as we know it today.

As VisualCapitalist’s Jeff Desjardins points out, the infographic serves as the perfect primer for all the questions about oil that you had, yet were afraid to ask. It also illustrates the impact that unexpected geopolitical events can have on the oil price – and how this volatility can be contagious to other global markets.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

…read more

Source: Visualizing The Volatile History Of Crude Oil Markets

    

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George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

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By Tyler Durden

Seemingly doubling down on his comments in April (following what he called Europe’s “flawed asylum policy”), George Soros has expanded his demands from four to seven fundamental pillars on how to prevent the collapse of the European Union. In an article penned for Foreign Policy titled “This Is Europe’s Last Chance to Fix Its Refugee Policy,” Soros details his plan (over-riding the current “piecemeal approach”) for rescuing Europe before it is too late. Simply put, the billionaire says the EU must take in hundreds of thousands of refugees a year, spend at least 30 billion euros (a minor sum, since he believes it can all be financed by debt and taxes) or Europe faces an “existential threat.”

Soros begins ominously: The EU’s piecemeal solutions are coming apart. Only a surge of financial and political creativity can avoid a catastrophe.

The refugee crisis was already leading to the slow disintegration of the European Union. Then, on June 23, it contributed to an even greater calamity — Brexit. Both of these crises have reinforced xenophobic, nationalist movements across the continent. They will try to win a series of key votes in the coming year — including national elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany in 2017, a referendum in Hungary on EU refugee policy on Oct. 2, a rerun of the Austrian presidential election on the same day, and a constitutional referendum in Italy in October or November of this year.

Rather than uniting to resist this threat, EU member states have become increasingly unwilling to cooperate with one another. They pursue self-serving, discordant migration policies, often to the detriment of their neighbors. In these circumstances, a comprehensive and coherent European asylum policy is not possible in the short term, despite the efforts of the EU’s governing body, the European Commission. The trust needed for cooperation is lacking. It will have to be rebuilt through a long and laborious process.

This is unfortunate, because a comprehensive policy ought to remain the highest priority for European leaders; the union cannot survive without it. The refugee crisis is not a one-off event; it augurs a period of higher migration pressures for the foreseeable future, due to a variety of causes including demographic and economic imbalances between Europe and Africa, unending conflicts in the broader region, and climate change. Beggar-thy-neighbor migration policies, such as building border fences, will not only further fragment the union; they also seriously damage European economies and subvert global human rights standards.

What would a comprehensive approach look like? It would establish a guaranteed target of at least 300,000 refugees each year who would be securely resettled directly to Europe from the Middle East — a total that hopefully would be matched by countries elsewhere in the world. That target should be large enough to persuade genuine asylum-seekers not to risk their lives by crossing the Mediterranean Sea, especially if reaching Europe by irregular means would disqualify them from being considered genuine asylum-seekers.

This could serve as the basis for Europe …read more

Source: George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

    

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What The "Gambler’s Fallacy" Tells Us About Where The Market Will Go next

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Nick Colas of Convergex

Viva Las Vegas – The Gambler’s Fallacy

The Dow has closed at a record high for nine days in a row, so it (and U.S. equities generally) MUST be ready for a pullback, right? Not so fast. Thinking that reversion to the mean happens swiftly and reliably is something called “The Gambler’s Fallacy”. To borrow from an old capital markets aphorism, things can stay weird longer than you can stay solvent betting against them.

Today we review a recent academic paper that highlights three examples of this mental error, ranging from judges hearing asylum requests to baseball umpires and bank loan officers. All of them make the same basic mistake in real-life situations despite their professional credentials and experience: assuming that the next decision is somehow linked to the previous one. Umps call marginal strikes after calling a ball, and judges decline refugee status more often after granting the previous person asylum during a day of hearings. The key lesson: every decision you make is unique, and should be unrelated to prior judgements.

* * *

During the summer of 1891, a small time British con man named Charles Wells took a holiday to the south of France. Like many tourists of the day, he frequented the famous casino in Monte Carlo. Unlike many tourists of his day, however, he managed to “Break the bank” – depleting the table where he was playing of all its reserves – several times. He reportedly took home as much as $8 million in today’s money, although his reputation as a swindler both before and after the event left some doubt about whether the whole thing was a publicity stunt.

Fast forward a few years to August 18, 1913, and something equally unexpected occurred: the roulette wheel came up with a black number 26 times in a row. Now, the casino had been in operation for decades by now, so a streaky wheel should not have been terribly remarkable. But instead of taking it stride, the crowds that night bet ever large sums during this run, fully expecting a red number to come up. It finally did, but not before the bank had broken some of the gamblers.

The event gave us term “Monte Carlo fallacy”, which has morphed into the “gambler’s fallacy” since then. Essentially, the cause of the problem is an error in human judgement. We know that random events (the flip of a coin or the spin of a roulette wheel) have certain probabilities. Where we go awry is in thinking that those probabilities will be regularly observable. We think it’s strange when a coin flips HHHHHHHHHT, but if it alternates exactly HTHTHTHTHT that’s OK. In fact, both outcomes have the same probability.

I hear a lot of market commentary lately that strongly resembles what must have transpired across the roulette table in Monaco back in 1913:

RNC Day 3: Make America First Again – Live Feed

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By Tyler Durden

Freshly-picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is the headliner of Wednesday’s third day of the Republican National Convention. As The Hill reports, with party business, Donald Trump’s official presidential nomination all settled, and any long-shot attempts to deny him the nomination in the rearview mirror, the third day should be a day of unity. With programming not starting until 7pmET, a number of Trump's former rivals and other notable conservatives will all focus on the day's theme: Make America First Again (which is ironically where Trump finds himself, leading Clinton by 1pt in the latest poll).

Live Feed…

Here’s what The Hill says to watch for during the convention’s third day.

Pence makes his case

The Indiana governor's keynote is easily the most-anticipated event of the night, when the longtime politician will hit a friendly stage as his official roll out continues. It’s been less than one week since Trump tapped him for the vice presidential nomination, a pick that has given the party’s establishment hope that their nominee is moving in the right direction. But while he has the resume, Pence doesn’t have the broad-based name recognition like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, two of Trump’s other top choices. Trump didn’t help the cause when he unveiled Pence last week in a speech where he mostly passed over his running mate. So now Pence has another chance to make his case to the prime-time network audience on the party’s top stage.

The GOP’s young guns take the stage

Three of Trump’s vanquished rivals will hit the stage Wednesday — Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), and Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.). All eyes will be on Cruz, one of Trump’s most high-profile holdouts who many see as already laying the groundwork for his next presidential bid. He has repeatedly refused to endorse the party’s nominee outright, so a “Kumbaya” moment would be a surprise welcomed by Team Trump with open arms. If an endorsement isn’t on the table, Cruz will likely lay into his favorite target — presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton — as he works to leave a strong impression on those who may help in any future presidential bid. Walker, who previously backed Cruz over Trump in his state’s primary, also has future presidential aspirations. So his speech serves as his best chance to remind Republicans why they saw him as a potential presidential front-runner just one year ago. Rubio won’t be at the convention in person — he’s sending in a video message. He had previously said he'd be in Cleveland but changed his mind, arguing he needs to campaign in Florida before his August primary because he made a last-minute decision to run for reelection to the Senate.

The inner circle gets a shot

The Trump convention has been a family affair — Trump’s wife, Melania, his daughter, Tiffany, and son, Donald Jr., have all already taken the stage. On …read more

Source: RNC Day 3: Make America First Again – Live Feed

    

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Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

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By Tyler Durden

SocGen has become the latest in a long and illustrious line of (so far wrong) forecasters, to predict that the 30-year-old bond rally, unleashed by Alan Greenspan’s “great moderation” and having gone through QE, thousands of rate cuts, and NIRP, is finally over.

As Bloomberg notes, Societe Generale SA is the most recent firm to go back to the drawing board, and is using a “different” approach in an attempt to come up with the right formula for why bonds are now massively overvalued. “Its bond team recently tweaked a long-standing macro model to incorporate two decades of bond prices from Europe, Japan and the U.K.”

Based on that new model and statistical norms, there’s less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1% especially as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates.

What SocGen is forgetting is that it was precisely the Fed’s rate hike that sent the long end plunging, and yield curve going horizontal, on fears that the US – and global – economy is not ready for tighter US financial conditions. What it is also forgetting is that reliance on any historical models, and thus precedent, is laughable at a time when ever central bank is unleashing never before tried financial experimentation, and helicopter money may be next.

That said, here is why SocGen is convinced that the 10Y will not hit 1.1%: “We had to revert to a model-based approach to figure out how low yields can go after we broke below 1.4%,” a scenario that the firm didn’t think would happen unless the Fed did an about-face, said Subadra Rajappa, SocGen’s head of U.S. rates strategy. In our view, “it still doesn’t make any sense for the Fed to change its policy stance from tightening to even on-hold or easing.”

Cited by Bloomberg, Bruno Braizinha, the architect of SocGen’s models, says the new one implies a “fair value” for 10-year yields of 1.95 percent. That suggests Treasuries are still extremely overvalued after last week’s selloff. Yields were at 1.59 percent today, up from a record low of 1.318 percent on July 6. Alternatively, what the model may be implying is that global growth has been massively overestimated and misrepresented as political powers across the globe fabricate data to restore confidence among the population. But surely such a proposal would be considered nothing more than “conspiracy theory.”

And then there is the model’s own abysmal performance. As Bloomberg puts it very nicely, without hurting SocGen’s feelings, “the fact that SocGen’s original model implied a fair value of 2.85 percent — a level last seen in early 2014 — reflects just how bewildering the bond market has been.” Put in trader terms anyone who shorted the 10Y when it was at 2.85%, has lost about 15%, and that excludes the cost of carry.

It’s not hard to see why bond shops are looking for new methods: after all they have all been dead wrong. But before you mock SocGen, consider that at the start of …read more

Source: Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

    

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Republican tech CEO is torn on Trump

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Blackberry’s chief executive John Chen says he’s a long-time Republican, but he’s struggling over what to do when he enters the voting booth come November. …read more

Source: Republican tech CEO is torn on Trump

    

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Red-hot Dow rises for 9th day in a row

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The stock market is on fire, with the Dow rising for nine straight days. That’s only happened seven times since 1980. …read more

Source: Red-hot Dow rises for 9th day in a row

    

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VIX Hits 11 Handle – Crashes At Fastest Pace In History

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By Tyler Durden

In the 17 trading days since Brexit, VIX has fallen 15 of them plunging from almost 27 immediately after the British vote to 11.4 lows this morning – the lowest since August 2014.

This collapse is the fastest in the 26 year history of VIX.

Leaving the VIX term structure at its 3rd steepest in history (i.e. spot complacency relative to out months)…

The last time this happened, the S&P fell 11% before Bernanke swooped in a J-Hole with QE2.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: VIX Hits 11 Handle – Crashes At Fastest Pace In History

    

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