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George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

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By Tyler Durden

Seemingly doubling down on his comments in April (following what he called Europe’s “flawed asylum policy”), George Soros has expanded his demands from four to seven fundamental pillars on how to prevent the collapse of the European Union. In an article penned for Foreign Policy titled “This Is Europe’s Last Chance to Fix Its Refugee Policy,” Soros details his plan (over-riding the current “piecemeal approach”) for rescuing Europe before it is too late. Simply put, the billionaire says the EU must take in hundreds of thousands of refugees a year, spend at least 30 billion euros (a minor sum, since he believes it can all be financed by debt and taxes) or Europe faces an “existential threat.”

Soros begins ominously: The EU’s piecemeal solutions are coming apart. Only a surge of financial and political creativity can avoid a catastrophe.

The refugee crisis was already leading to the slow disintegration of the European Union. Then, on June 23, it contributed to an even greater calamity — Brexit. Both of these crises have reinforced xenophobic, nationalist movements across the continent. They will try to win a series of key votes in the coming year — including national elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany in 2017, a referendum in Hungary on EU refugee policy on Oct. 2, a rerun of the Austrian presidential election on the same day, and a constitutional referendum in Italy in October or November of this year.

Rather than uniting to resist this threat, EU member states have become increasingly unwilling to cooperate with one another. They pursue self-serving, discordant migration policies, often to the detriment of their neighbors. In these circumstances, a comprehensive and coherent European asylum policy is not possible in the short term, despite the efforts of the EU’s governing body, the European Commission. The trust needed for cooperation is lacking. It will have to be rebuilt through a long and laborious process.

This is unfortunate, because a comprehensive policy ought to remain the highest priority for European leaders; the union cannot survive without it. The refugee crisis is not a one-off event; it augurs a period of higher migration pressures for the foreseeable future, due to a variety of causes including demographic and economic imbalances between Europe and Africa, unending conflicts in the broader region, and climate change. Beggar-thy-neighbor migration policies, such as building border fences, will not only further fragment the union; they also seriously damage European economies and subvert global human rights standards.

What would a comprehensive approach look like? It would establish a guaranteed target of at least 300,000 refugees each year who would be securely resettled directly to Europe from the Middle East — a total that hopefully would be matched by countries elsewhere in the world. That target should be large enough to persuade genuine asylum-seekers not to risk their lives by crossing the Mediterranean Sea, especially if reaching Europe by irregular means would disqualify them from being considered genuine asylum-seekers.

This could serve as the basis for Europe …read more

Source: George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse

    

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What The "Gambler’s Fallacy" Tells Us About Where The Market Will Go next

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Nick Colas of Convergex

Viva Las Vegas – The Gambler’s Fallacy

The Dow has closed at a record high for nine days in a row, so it (and U.S. equities generally) MUST be ready for a pullback, right? Not so fast. Thinking that reversion to the mean happens swiftly and reliably is something called “The Gambler’s Fallacy”. To borrow from an old capital markets aphorism, things can stay weird longer than you can stay solvent betting against them.

Today we review a recent academic paper that highlights three examples of this mental error, ranging from judges hearing asylum requests to baseball umpires and bank loan officers. All of them make the same basic mistake in real-life situations despite their professional credentials and experience: assuming that the next decision is somehow linked to the previous one. Umps call marginal strikes after calling a ball, and judges decline refugee status more often after granting the previous person asylum during a day of hearings. The key lesson: every decision you make is unique, and should be unrelated to prior judgements.

* * *

During the summer of 1891, a small time British con man named Charles Wells took a holiday to the south of France. Like many tourists of the day, he frequented the famous casino in Monte Carlo. Unlike many tourists of his day, however, he managed to “Break the bank” – depleting the table where he was playing of all its reserves – several times. He reportedly took home as much as $8 million in today’s money, although his reputation as a swindler both before and after the event left some doubt about whether the whole thing was a publicity stunt.

Fast forward a few years to August 18, 1913, and something equally unexpected occurred: the roulette wheel came up with a black number 26 times in a row. Now, the casino had been in operation for decades by now, so a streaky wheel should not have been terribly remarkable. But instead of taking it stride, the crowds that night bet ever large sums during this run, fully expecting a red number to come up. It finally did, but not before the bank had broken some of the gamblers.

The event gave us term “Monte Carlo fallacy”, which has morphed into the “gambler’s fallacy” since then. Essentially, the cause of the problem is an error in human judgement. We know that random events (the flip of a coin or the spin of a roulette wheel) have certain probabilities. Where we go awry is in thinking that those probabilities will be regularly observable. We think it’s strange when a coin flips HHHHHHHHHT, but if it alternates exactly HTHTHTHTHT that’s OK. In fact, both outcomes have the same probability.

I hear a lot of market commentary lately that strongly resembles what must have transpired across the roulette table in Monaco back in 1913:

RNC Day 3: Make America First Again – Live Feed

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By Tyler Durden

Freshly-picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is the headliner of Wednesday’s third day of the Republican National Convention. As The Hill reports, with party business, Donald Trump’s official presidential nomination all settled, and any long-shot attempts to deny him the nomination in the rearview mirror, the third day should be a day of unity. With programming not starting until 7pmET, a number of Trump's former rivals and other notable conservatives will all focus on the day's theme: Make America First Again (which is ironically where Trump finds himself, leading Clinton by 1pt in the latest poll).

Live Feed…

Here’s what The Hill says to watch for during the convention’s third day.

Pence makes his case

The Indiana governor's keynote is easily the most-anticipated event of the night, when the longtime politician will hit a friendly stage as his official roll out continues. It’s been less than one week since Trump tapped him for the vice presidential nomination, a pick that has given the party’s establishment hope that their nominee is moving in the right direction. But while he has the resume, Pence doesn’t have the broad-based name recognition like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, two of Trump’s other top choices. Trump didn’t help the cause when he unveiled Pence last week in a speech where he mostly passed over his running mate. So now Pence has another chance to make his case to the prime-time network audience on the party’s top stage.

The GOP’s young guns take the stage

Three of Trump’s vanquished rivals will hit the stage Wednesday — Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), and Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.). All eyes will be on Cruz, one of Trump’s most high-profile holdouts who many see as already laying the groundwork for his next presidential bid. He has repeatedly refused to endorse the party’s nominee outright, so a “Kumbaya” moment would be a surprise welcomed by Team Trump with open arms. If an endorsement isn’t on the table, Cruz will likely lay into his favorite target — presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton — as he works to leave a strong impression on those who may help in any future presidential bid. Walker, who previously backed Cruz over Trump in his state’s primary, also has future presidential aspirations. So his speech serves as his best chance to remind Republicans why they saw him as a potential presidential front-runner just one year ago. Rubio won’t be at the convention in person — he’s sending in a video message. He had previously said he'd be in Cleveland but changed his mind, arguing he needs to campaign in Florida before his August primary because he made a last-minute decision to run for reelection to the Senate.

The inner circle gets a shot

The Trump convention has been a family affair — Trump’s wife, Melania, his daughter, Tiffany, and son, Donald Jr., have all already taken the stage. On …read more

Source: RNC Day 3: Make America First Again – Live Feed

    

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Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

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By Tyler Durden

SocGen has become the latest in a long and illustrious line of (so far wrong) forecasters, to predict that the 30-year-old bond rally, unleashed by Alan Greenspan’s “great moderation” and having gone through QE, thousands of rate cuts, and NIRP, is finally over.

As Bloomberg notes, Societe Generale SA is the most recent firm to go back to the drawing board, and is using a “different” approach in an attempt to come up with the right formula for why bonds are now massively overvalued. “Its bond team recently tweaked a long-standing macro model to incorporate two decades of bond prices from Europe, Japan and the U.K.”

Based on that new model and statistical norms, there’s less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1% especially as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates.

What SocGen is forgetting is that it was precisely the Fed’s rate hike that sent the long end plunging, and yield curve going horizontal, on fears that the US – and global – economy is not ready for tighter US financial conditions. What it is also forgetting is that reliance on any historical models, and thus precedent, is laughable at a time when ever central bank is unleashing never before tried financial experimentation, and helicopter money may be next.

That said, here is why SocGen is convinced that the 10Y will not hit 1.1%: “We had to revert to a model-based approach to figure out how low yields can go after we broke below 1.4%,” a scenario that the firm didn’t think would happen unless the Fed did an about-face, said Subadra Rajappa, SocGen’s head of U.S. rates strategy. In our view, “it still doesn’t make any sense for the Fed to change its policy stance from tightening to even on-hold or easing.”

Cited by Bloomberg, Bruno Braizinha, the architect of SocGen’s models, says the new one implies a “fair value” for 10-year yields of 1.95 percent. That suggests Treasuries are still extremely overvalued after last week’s selloff. Yields were at 1.59 percent today, up from a record low of 1.318 percent on July 6. Alternatively, what the model may be implying is that global growth has been massively overestimated and misrepresented as political powers across the globe fabricate data to restore confidence among the population. But surely such a proposal would be considered nothing more than “conspiracy theory.”

And then there is the model’s own abysmal performance. As Bloomberg puts it very nicely, without hurting SocGen’s feelings, “the fact that SocGen’s original model implied a fair value of 2.85 percent — a level last seen in early 2014 — reflects just how bewildering the bond market has been.” Put in trader terms anyone who shorted the 10Y when it was at 2.85%, has lost about 15%, and that excludes the cost of carry.

It’s not hard to see why bond shops are looking for new methods: after all they have all been dead wrong. But before you mock SocGen, consider that at the start of …read more

Source: Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

    

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Republican tech CEO is torn on Trump

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Blackberry’s chief executive John Chen says he’s a long-time Republican, but he’s struggling over what to do when he enters the voting booth come November. …read more

Source: Republican tech CEO is torn on Trump

    

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Red-hot Dow rises for 9th day in a row

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The stock market is on fire, with the Dow rising for nine straight days. That’s only happened seven times since 1980. …read more

Source: Red-hot Dow rises for 9th day in a row

    

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VIX Hits 11 Handle – Crashes At Fastest Pace In History

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By Tyler Durden

In the 17 trading days since Brexit, VIX has fallen 15 of them plunging from almost 27 immediately after the British vote to 11.4 lows this morning – the lowest since August 2014.

This collapse is the fastest in the 26 year history of VIX.

Leaving the VIX term structure at its 3rd steepest in history (i.e. spot complacency relative to out months)…

The last time this happened, the S&P fell 11% before Bernanke swooped in a J-Hole with QE2.

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: VIX Hits 11 Handle – Crashes At Fastest Pace In History

    

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Feds want ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ profits

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In a massive lawsuit that reads like an international thriller, the U.S. government claims that well-connected fraudsters stole $3.5 billion from Malaysia and used it to buy New York condos, hotels, yachts and a jet. Some of that money was used to produce the Hollywood film “The Wolf of Wall Street.” …read more

Source: Feds want ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ profits

    

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HSBC banker arrested at JFK in trading scheme

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HSBC banker arrested at JFK airport as he prepared to leave the country. He and former trader face federal charges they manipulated currency trades. …read more

Source: HSBC banker arrested at JFK in trading scheme

    

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The Oddly "Inconsistent" Event That Has Turkey Wondering If The Entire Coup Was Staged

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By Tyler Durden

The question marks around the failed Turkish “coup” continue to pile up.

Several days ago we reported that in one of the most glaring inconsistencies surrounding the failed military attempt to overthrow the Turkish president, at the height of the attempt to overthrow Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the rebel pilots of two F-16 fighter jets had Erdogan’s plane in their sights. And yet he was able to fly on.

“At least two F-16s harassed Erdogan’s plane while it was in the air and en route to Istanbul. They locked their radars on his plane and on two other F-16s protecting him,” a former military officer with knowledge of the events told Reuters. “Why they didn’t fire is a mystery,” he said.

Now a new mystery that just does not add up has emerged.

According to the government’s official narrative, rushed together in the days after the coup, there was an attack on Saturday morning by helicopter-borne commandos against a resort hotel in Marmaris. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meant to be staying there. But the attack took place nearly an hour after every news channel in Turkey beamed images of Mr Erdogan addressing the nation from the airport in Istanbul, some 750km away.


As even the FT skeptically reports, “that episode is one of many inconsistencies and strange occurrences in a coup whose amateurish — almost kamikaze — nature preordained its failure and is now providing rich fodder for conspiracy theories. That Turkey is so polarised — roughly split between those who love and hate Mr Erdogan — has only added to the froth.”

As a result of the gaping holes in the story, even the central issue of who was behind the coup is now contested reality. According to a snap poll a third of Turks believe Erdogan himself, who says his own life was threatened, was behind the coup. (The poll, by London-based Streetbees, queried about 2,800 Turks, two-thirds via mobile apps, and a third in person.)

However, that helicopter raid, along with reports that Mr Erdogan’s plane was pursued by two fighter jets that never opened fire, some argue, is evidence that his life was never in any real danger.

To be sure, voices have quickly emerged slamming any such allegations as “preposterous” conspiracy theories. “Turks, like a lot of people around the world are given to conspiracy theories — simplistic explanations for complex events for things they don’t fully understand,” said Ross Wilson, a former US ambassador to Ankara now at the Atlantic Council. “Did Erdogan secretly engineer this, which is preposterous, or did the United States engineer this, which is equally preposterous?”

However for the locals, who have extensive experience with “conspiracy theories” that end up becoming conspiracy fact, especially when it comes to the government, things are not quite so clear cut. Those seeking holes in the government’s version of events about the coup are particularly focused on an offhand comment made by Mr Erdogan on Saturday, where he called the coup “a gift from …read more

Source: The Oddly "Inconsistent" Event That Has Turkey Wondering If The Entire Coup Was Staged

    

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