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By Capitalist Exploits

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Today I have for you a recorded conversation with Harris Kupperman (Kuppy), a friend of mine who manages Praetorian Capital, a Florida-based hedge fund. Kuppy is one of a clutch of guys who I call on to stress test my views and vice versa. Sometimes we disagree, though more often than not we don’t.

Either way, Kuppy’s views are always, always valuable to me.

In this conversation we discuss, among other things:

• What Kuppy bought the weekend after Brexit.
• A trade you can still put on to profit from the Brexit fallout.
• Kuppy’s current views on emerging markets.
• What asset Kuppy thinks is “gold on acid”.
• How he’s positioned and has been playing repeated crisis events.

(click on the image to listen to the podcast)

In addition to the above, I’ve got some thoughts on the failed coup in Turkey and why a coup in a land run by an obvious IS supporter and dictator and where people wear funny hats and eat chicken for desert (tavuk gö?sü) matters.

Turkey is important for a host of reasons but let me just mention the most obvious one today.

A global and rapidly increasing risk to liquidity is here. Coups (failed or not), regular shootings, and terrorism, as I discussed last week, are all net negative for liquidity. And liquidity, my friends, is what our central banker friends have been so desperate to sustain.

Global capital flows will continue to shift and, in fact, accelerate as capital searches for liquidity, because liquidity provides safety even if it is being sought in asset classes which are ultimately flawed.

Understanding what is happening and why it is happening is all that matters because like it or not, we have to deal with the world the way it is, not the way we want it to be.

Consider how portfolio managers from Manhattan to London and in-between are currently restructuring portfolios, many of which are mandated to invest only in certain asset classes which themselves are selected based on a number of criteria, a deciding one being volatility ratios – ratios which are now blowing out. If we get a Brexit, a coup, or a terrorist attack every week, we’ll be experiencing entire indexes gap every day.

Here are some things that you as an informed and intelligent investor may want to consider:

• What do you think Brexit, terrorism, and coups do to the psyche of an investor?
• What do you think they do to the businessman deciding whether or not to increase or decrease capital expenditures in his business? (Hint: it’s not positive)
• What do you think they do for the 26-year old entrepreneur trying to raise a series-A for his company SnipSnap-FlapJack which, unbelievably after hundreds of millions invested, doesn’t make any bloody money? (It was all about growth, remember?)
• What do you think this does for the CEO of Smart As Shit Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture fund on the other side of “Mr. Series-A” mentioned above, who’s just had to mark-to-market (downwards) his latest investment in FlimFlam-FlipFlop (or some equally snazzy …read more

  Source: Trading The Chaos: One Hedge Fund Manager’s Strategy

      

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By Tyler Durden

The highlight of the first day of the Republican convention was the speech by Donald Trump’s wife Melania, who was seeking to make a memorable impression on the world, and may have done just that… only not in the way she had envisioned. Because in her potentially breakthrough moment, Melania appears to have lifted some of her first night convention speech from a surprising source: a similar speech by none other than Michelle Obama.

Indeed, while the delegates applauded Mrs. Trump’s speech, shortly after its conclusion accusations emerged that the potential future first lady plagiarised parts of her speech from the current first lady.

As Bloomberg notes, on the opening day of the Republican National Convention, the similarities between the two speeches threatened to overshadow the plans of the Trump campaign to reach out to new voters and generate momentum for the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Several parts of the Slovenia-born former model’s speech were similar to words that Mrs Obama used in an address at the Democratic convention in 2008. According to the FT, some phrases — including “you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say” — were identical.

“From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say,” Melania Trump said as she told her life story. It strongly echoed Michelle Obama’s own words at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. “Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond,” she said in Denver.

Michelle Obama then spoke of setting “out to build lives guided by these values, and to pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children — and all children in this nation — to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.” Melania Trump tracked those lines closely as well. “We need to pass those lessons on to the many generations to follow. Because we want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.”

Courtesy of Reuters, here is the full breakdown of the two speeches, suggesting that Melania’s speechwriters took quite a few liberties with what the current first lady said some 8 years ago.

A comparison of the key parts of the speeches, via Reuters

Melania Trump (July 2016): “My parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise; that you treat people with respect.

Michelle Obama (August 2008): “And Barack and …read more

Source: Melania Trump Accused Of Plagiarising Convention Speech From Michelle Obama

    

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Nintendo shares surged by another 14% on Tuesday, bringing the stock’s gains to 120% following the release of its sensational Pokemon Go game. …read more

Source: Nintendo adds $23B to value. You know why…

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By Tyler Durden

Via The Mises Institute,

[An interview with Hans-Herman Hoppe in the Polish weekly Najwy?szy Czas!]

What is your assessment of contemporary Western Europe, and in particular the EU?

All major political parties in Western Europe, regardless of their different names and party programs, are nowadays committed to the same fundamental idea of democratic socialism. They use democratic elections to legitimize the taxing of productive people for the benefit of unproductive people. They tax people, who have earned their income and accumulated their wealth by producing goods or services purchased voluntarily by consumers (and of course especially the “rich” among those), and they then re-distribute the confiscated loot to themselves, i.e., the democratic State that they control or hope to control, and their various political friends, supporters, and potential voters.

They do not call this policy by its right name: punishing the productive and rewarding the unproductive, of course. That doesn’t sound particularly attractive. Instead, they tap into the always popular sentiment of envy and claim to tax the few “rich” to support the many “poor.” In truth, however, with their policy they make more and more productive people poor and a steadily increasing number of unproductive people rich.

But what about the EU?

Looking at the EU, the picture becomes even worse. The EU is the first step on the way toward the creation of a European Super-State, and ultimately of a one-world government, dominated by the USA and its central bank, the FED. From its very beginnings, and despite all high-sounding political proclamations to the contrary, the EU was never about free trade and free competition. For that, you don’t need tens of thousands of pages of rules and regulations! Rather, the central purpose of the EU, supported all-along by the USA, was always the weakening in particular of Germany as Europe’s economic powerhouse. To facilitate this, Germany was sent on a seemingly never-ending “guilt trip” and thus pressured to transfer increasingly larger parts of its already limited (vis-à-vis the USA) sovereignty to the EU in Brussels. Especially noteworthy in this regard: Germany’s giving up its monetary sovereignty and abandoning its traditionally “strong” currency, the DM, in favor of a “weak” Euro, issued by a European Central Bank (ECB) composed overwhelmingly of politically connected central bankers from traditionally “weak” currency countries.

The EU, then, is characterized by three main features:

• First: The harmonization of the tax and regulation structure across all member states, so as to reduce economic competition and especially tax-competition between different countries and make all countries equally uncompetitive.
• Second: On top of the economic and moral perversity within each country of punishing the productive and subsidizing the unproductive, another layer of international income- and wealth-redistribution is added: of punishing economically better performing countries like Germany and the countries of northern Europe and rewarding economically worse performing countries (mostly of southern Europe) and thus successively rendering the economic performance of all countries equally worse.
• And third, of increasing importance especially during the last decade: In order to overcome the rising resistance, in …read more

  Source: Hans-Hermann Hoppe: "Put Your Hope In Radical Decentralization"

      

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By Tyler Durden

Following the crash after March/April's 'mania', Iron ore prices have resurged to 2-month highs on the heels of stimulus-hype and rampant speculation. However, this echo-bubble appears to be bursting as Macquarie sounds the alarm that prices are “getting carried away again” with fundamental support entirely lacking as China inventories soar 30% year-over-year to 20-month highs.

As Bloomberg reports, iron ore was caught up in a speculative rally in China earlier this year as prices soared in April, prompting a host of banks to warn that the surge wouldn’t last, after which rates cratered. Last week, Australia cut its price outlook for 2017 by 20 percent, citing prospects for increased supply just as steel output in China shrinks further. Goldman said recent stimulus in China hadn’t brought a meaningful increase in steel demand, according to a report received on Wednesday.

While speculation about stimulus in China has helped to lift prices, Macquarie said it’s skeptical about fundamental support for the recent move higher, analysts including Ian Roper wrote in a report received on Wednesday. The note asked whether iron ore was “getting carried away again?”

Iron ore holdings at China’s ports just posted the longest run of gains this year, expanding for five straight weeks to 105.4 million metric tons, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. The swelling pile signals robust supplies, and banks including Macquarie warned this month that prices may be set to weaken after rallying 34 percent in 2016.

“The rising port inventory is definitely a dark cloud looming over prices,” said Zhao Chaoyue, an analyst at China Merchants Futures Co.

Furthermore, steel demand in China is shrinking for the first time in a generation as growth slows and the government steers a transition away from a metal-intensive economy reliant on investment to one where services play a bigger role. That’s resulted in the declining sensitivity of steel consumption to credit flows in China, according to Goldman.

“We would need to see ever-accelerating credit growth just to maintain the same level of steel consumption, which is unsustainable and unlikely,” the New York-based bank said in the July 12 report, referring to the country that makes half the world’s steel. “This is at the core of why we expect Chinese steel demand to fall in coming years.”

Still as long as the dream of stimulus is still alive, then why question the recent resurgence.

…read more

Source: Iron Ore Rally "Getting Carried Away Again" As China Inventories Soar To 20-Month Highs

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Softbank shares tumbled Tuesday as investors reacted to the company’s $32 billion purchase of ARM Holdings, one of the U.K.’s most successful tech companies. …read more

Source: Investors hate Softbank’s record $32 billion deal

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Softbank shares tumbled Tuesday as investors reacted to the company’s $32 billion purchase of ARM Holdings, one of the U.K.’s most successful tech companies. …read more

Source: Investors hate Softbank’s record $32 billion deal

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Jon Stewart helped bring back Stephen Colbert’s “Colbert Report” persona to “The Late Show” on Monday night. …read more

Source: ‘Late Show’ brings back host’s ‘Colbert Report’ persona

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Uber has completed two billion rides on its platform. …read more

Source: Uber hits 2 billion rides

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“A standing military force, with an overgrown Executive will not long be safe companions to liberty.” – James Madison

America is a ticking time bomb.

All that remains to be seen is who – or what – will set fire to the fuse.

We are poised at what seems to be the pinnacle of a manufactured breakdown, with police shooting unarmed citizens, snipers shooting police, global and domestic violence rising, and a political showdown between two presidential candidates equally matched in unpopularity.

The preparations for the Republican and Democratic national conventions taking place in Cleveland and Philadelphia—augmented by a $50 million federal security grant for each city—provide a foretaste of how the government plans to deal with any individual or group that steps out of line: they will be censored, silenced, spied on, caged, intimidated, interrogated, investigated, recorded, tracked, labeled, held at gunpoint, detained, restrained, arrested, tried and found guilty.

For instance, anticipating civil unrest and mass demonstrations in connection with the Republican Party convention, Cleveland officials set up makeshift prisons, extra courtrooms to handle protesters, and shut down a local university in order to house 1,700 riot police and their weapons. The city’s courts are preparing to process up to 1,000 people a day. Additionally, the FBI has also been conducting “interviews” with activists in advance of the conventions to discourage them from engaging in protests.

Make no mistake, the government is ready for a civil uprising.

Indeed, the government has been preparing for this moment for years.

A 2008 Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report goes on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

Subsequent reports by the Department of Homeland Security to identify, monitor and label right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) have manifested into full-fledged pre-crime surveillance programs. Almost a decade later, after locking down the nation and spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS has concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that is colluding with the …read more

Source: There Will Be No Second American Revolution: The Futility Of An Armed Revolt

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