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By Tyler Durden

Despite claims that the Nice truck attacker was a radicalized Islamist, close friends of Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel say it “just doesn't add up” noting “he ate pork, he drank alcohol, he hit his wife,” the mainstream media narrative that he was an ISIS jihadi were 'confirmed' today. As WSJ reports, Islamic State on Saturday claimed responsibility for the deadly attack, saying the assault was a response to calls by the extremist group to target those nations allied against it, adding that so-called “Crusader states” weren’t safe from its fighters in a news bulletin broadcast over its Al Bayan radio station.

On Thursday night, Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel maneuvered a 19-ton truck white truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day, killing at least 84 people and injuring many more. Mainstream media instantly ascribed the atrocity as an act of terrorism… and now we get the first quasi-confirmation of that narrative, as AP reports,

The Islamic State on Saturday claimed the Tunisian man who barreled his truck into a crowd in the French resort city of Nice was a “soldier” of the group. It's the first claim of responsibility for an attack that claimed 84 lives at a July 14 fireworks display.

The claim — circulated on social media by a news outlet affiliated with the group — didn't name Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, the 31-year-old Tunisian who authorities say was behind the wheel as a truck crashed into a crowd of revelers at a fireworks display on Thursday. But the statement quoting a security member of the group said the man was following calls from IS to target nationals of countries fighting it.

The veracity of the group's claim couldn't immediately be determined, but what is known so far about Bouhlel thus far suggests a troubled, angry man with little interest in the group's ultra-puritanical brand of Islam.

It's also unclear whether or not he was acting alone. The Paris prosecutor's office said Saturday that five people are in custody following the attack.

The Amaq news agency, which is linked to the Islamic State, cited an “insider source” in declaring that Bouhlel “was a soldier of the Islamic State.”

“He executed the operation in response to calls to target citizens of coalition nations that fight the Islamic State,” the news agency wrote.

Separately, the Islamic State's al-Bayan radio station said Bouhlel used “a new tactic” to wreak havoc.

“The crusader countries know that no matter how much they enforce their security measures and procedures, it will not stop the mujahideen from striking,” the station said.

However, as The Washington Post reports, it remains unclear whether the militant group directed the attack, was taking responsibility for an assault it inspired or was simply seeking publicity from an event in which it had no direct hand.

“It seems” that the attacker, Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, 31, “radicalized his views very rapidly. These are the first elements that our investigation has come up with through interviews with his acquaintances,” Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Saturday, without offering details.Five people have been …read more

Source: ISIS Takes Responsibility For Nice Attack, Warns "Crusader States" Not Safe

    

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Donald Trump has promised to “save” coal country by pulling the plug on Obama executive actions. But don’t expect a Trump victory to be a cure-all for this long suffering industry. …read more

Source: Trump could help — but not save — coal country

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by M.N.Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

One of the more preposterous deeds of modern central banking involves creating digital monetary credits from nothing and then using the faux money to purchase stocks. If you’re unfamiliar with this erudite form of monetary policy this may sound rather fantastical. But, in certain economies, this is now standard operating procedure.

For example, in Japan this explicit intervention into the stock market is being performed with the composed tedium of a dairy farmer milking his cows. The activity is more art than science. Similarly, if you stop – even for a day – pain swells in certain sensitive areas.

In late April, a Bloomberg study found that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), through its purchases of ETFs, had become a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of companies that comprise the Nikkei 225. At the time, based on “estimates gleaned from publicly available central bank records, regulatory filings by companies and ETF managers, and statistics from the Investment Trusts Association of Japan,” Bloomberg assumed the BOJ was buying about 3 trillion yen ($27.2 billion) of ETFs every year. The rate of buying has likely accelerated since then.

In fact, this week ZeroHedge reported, via Matt King of Citibank, that net global central bank asset purchases had surged to their highest since 2013. This seems to explain why, even with investors pulling money out of equity funds for 17 consecutive weeks, and at a pace that suggests a full flight to safety, stock markets are trading at all-time highs.

In short, central banks are pumping “liquidity” into stock markets faster than investors are pulling their money out. The main culprits, at the moment, are the BOJ and the European Central Bank (ECB). Similar efforts may soon come from a central banker near you.

Wealth Effect Redux

Other than attempting to, somehow, boost the economy by levitating the stock market, the objective of this explicit central banking intervention is unclear. The popular theory seems to be that the “wealth effect” of inflated asset prices stimulates demand in the economy. The premise, as we understand it, is supposed to play out along the following narrative…or a derivative thereof.

As stock portfolios bubble out investors feel better about their lot in life. Some of them even buy flat screen televisions. Others buy wearable fitness trackers and matching gym shorts. Before you know it, gross domestic product goes up – along with wages – and unemployment goes down. An economic boom ensues.

If you don’t buy it, there are even ridiculous abstractions – like liquidity trap graphs – that provide academic cover for central banks to pump “liquidity” into ETFs. According to these graphs, pumping into government debt no longer provides the stimulus they’re after. They reason that inflating stocks, and the theory of the wealth effect, may do the trick.

Naturally, we have some reservations. Namely, what are the side effects? What are the unintended …read more

Source: Global Central Banks Are On A Collective Suicide Mission

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By Tyler Durden

When earlier today we reported that Turkey has closed the airspace above, and suspended all US-led air missions out of the giant Incirlik airbase (which houses some 50 US nuclear bombs), we said that there is speculation the “airbase may be held “hostage” by Ankara as a bargaining chip ahead of demands for the extradition of Erdogan’s arch enemy, Fethullah Gulen, currently a resident of the state of Pennsylvania.” A few hours later this was partially validated when during a televised speech, Turkish President Erdogan called on the United States to extradite Fethullah Gulen, a US-based Muslim cleric he accuses of being behind Turkey’s failed coup attempt.

Erdogan demands US extradite ‘head of terrorist’ referring to Gulen while the crowd shouts ‘death penalty for Feto’! pic.twitter.com/DjFVoxZVXy

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) July 16, 2016

At roughtly the same time, Turkey’s Minister of Labor went one step further, and accused America of being behind the coup on live Television, as it was harboring Gulen.

BREAKING: Secretary of Labor Süleyman Soylu live on news channel Haberturk: “The US is behind this coup” pic.twitter.com/khqdbUw7re

— Turkey Untold (@TurkeyUntold) July 16, 2016

To be sure, as we wrote first thing this morning, Gulen, who is currently residing in Saylorsburg, Peynnsylvania, said he condemned the coup “in the strongest terms.”

Gulen, as those who have followed recent Turkish history know, is Erdogan’s quasi-imaginary bogeyman nemesis; Erdogan has repeatedly accused Gulen of plotting a “parallel state” whose intention is to overthrow Erdogan, and has used that strawman narrative as justification to expand his powers and to push for a shift from a parliamentary to a presidential regime. Gulen wrote in his blog that “As someone who suffered under multiple military coups during the past five decades, it is especially insulting to be accused of having any link to such an attempt. I categorically deny such accusations.”

Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen is pictured at his residence in Saylorsburg, PA

None of this mattered to Erdogan who said as Turkey’s strategic partner, Washington should meet the demand for the extradition of Pennsylvania-based Fethullah Gulen. He also added that Turkey had never turned back any extradition request for “terrorists” by the United States, implying it is the US imperative to extradite the man Erdogan accuses of starting last night’s failed coup.

As Reuters adds, Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said on Saturday he had made clear in a call with U.S. counterpart John Kerry that followers of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen were behind a coup attempt, and yet strangely enough, “had not directly discussed the cleric’s possible extradition.“

The revisionist narrative spun by the Turkish government, goes as follows: a faction of the armed forces, deemed by the government as loyal to Gulen, tried to seize power using tanks and attack helicopters overnight. As we learned previously, one hundred and sixty-one people were killed, including many civilians, in the ensuing violence. Allegedly up to 3,000 soldiers have been arrested, a paltry figure in comparison to the …read more

Source: Turkey Accuses US Of Being Behind Military Coup, Demands Extradition Of Cleric Gulen

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By Tyler Durden

When just ten days ago Goldman warned that over the “next few months” stocks will suffer a sharp slump, one of our more cynical reactions was that this was the all clear sign for stocks to surge to new record highs. And, in the aftermath of last week’s main event, namely the speculation that Japan would unleash helicopter money with Ben Bernanke’s blessings, they did just that. But while fading Goldman is nothing new, it happened at a very good time: indeed, the S&P 500 surged to a new record high of 2164 this week while the 10-year US Treasury yield touched an all-time low of 1.37%.

As a result Goldman, and especially its clients, are stumped. As chief equity strategist David Kostin admits, they have one burning question. As Kostin puts it, they “are struggling to reconcile how extreme valuations of both assets can co-exist.”

In defending his recently bearish calls, Kostin writes that “Risk-on has been the clear mantra since the post-Brexit low. But sentiment can reverse quickly.”

Putting the recent market move in context, Goldman says that its “year-end target remains 2100” and still expects a major swoon lower: “the path will include a 5%-10% drawdown during the next few months sparked by rising US and global political uncertainty, negative EPS revisions, decelerating buybacks, and overly-dovish policy expectations for the Fed given wage inflation trends.”

That said it appears that Goldman’s clients, at least those who listened to Kostin and shorted into last week’s rally, are getting rowdy and are countering with reasons why the rally should continue. From Kostin:

“Relatively light positioning remains the most bullish argument for tactical equity upside, in our view. . Client discussions reveal low portfolio risk coupled with concern that the rally lasts. Most investors have been skeptical of the valuation expansion and have not participated in the 8% rebound from the post-Brexit low on June 27. Upside call buying has been a popular strategy to insure against upside risk.

The Goldman strategist adds that the most common bullish argument cited by clients for a continuation of the equity rally is that low interest rates support higher stock prices. “Extended periods of falling bond yields have typically been associated with rising P/E multiples.” However, he adds, “the S&P 500 forward P/E has already expanded by 70% during the past five years, exceeding all other expansion cycles except 1984-1987 (up 111%) and 1994-1999 (up 115%). Both prior extreme P/E multiple expansion cycles ended poorly for equity investors.”

Bullish investors argue that sustained low rates will support P/E multiples of 20x or more. The Fed Model relates the earnings yield (5.7%) to the Treasury yield (1.5%). The current 420 bp yield gap is near the 10-year average. Exhibit 2 shows the sensitivity of this model. Assuming a steady bond yield, reversion to the 35-year average gap of 250 bp implies a S&P 500 year-end level of 3075 while the 5-year average gap implies 1900.

So are stocks going to 3,190, or even stayin at …read more

Source: With "Stock Valuations At Extremes" Goldman’s Clients Are Asking Just One Question

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson, originally posted at InfoWars.com,

According to ‘Black Lives Matter’ organizer Ashleigh Shackelford, white people aren’t welcome at Black Lives Matter rallies and instead should just hand over “reparations” to black people so that they can purchase new cellphones and laptops.

In an article for ‘Wear Your Voice’, an “intersectional feminist media” outlet, Shackelford says that she finds the presence of white people at Black Lives Matter rallies “triggering,” and that black people are “frightened” by whites, adding that their roles should be confined to acting as human “buffers against the police”.

“Why are you going to a protest when you’re the oppressor?” asks Shackelford, adding, “WHITE PEOPLE ARE KILLING US. So when I see white people show up to rally excited and smiling, ready to march like it’s a hobby — I’m disgusted and absolutely fucking livid….I’m ready to fight.”

Decrying the fact that white people are promoting a message of love and unity in the spirit of Martin Luther King, Shackelford complains that, “White people are 400 years too fucking late for a round of applause for a damn tweet with a hashtag, or for showing up to a damn rally.”

She then pushes the demented dogma that white people living today owe blacks “reparations” for slavery (only 1.4 percent of white Americans owned black slaves at the height of slavery).

“Nothing you have is yours. Let me be clear: Nothing you have is yours. Also, Let me be see through: Reparations are not donations, because we are not your charity, tax write off, or good deed for the day. You are living off of stolen resources, stolen land, exploited labor, appropriated culture and the murder of our people. Nothing you have is yours,” writes Shackelford.

“Y’all spent hundreds of years selling, mutilating, raping and beating our bodies and labor but you think money doesn’t matter to our freedom and liberation? Cute. Write me a check for this shade because it comes with 400 years of trauma,” she adds.

Shackelford wants white people to give blacks money so that they can buy cellphones, laptops and land, asserting, “Be ready to write checks and give up your car keys.”

She then includes a link to her personal Paypal account at the end of the article asking people to send money to support her “emotional and intellectual labor.”

“Whiteness operates in a way that means that using your privilege “for good” often requires Black folks to still be a position to be “saved” or “in need.” We don’t need white saviorism. We don’t need white people to speak for us. We don’t even really need white people to show up to rallies. We need our reparations, we need intentional disruption that involves high risk and we need y’all to stop playing,” concludes Shackelford, while also straying into extremist rhetoric by asking whites, “Are you willing to kill for us?”

Shackelford describes herself as a “queer, nonbinary Black fat femme writer, artist, and cultural producer,” because of course she does.

In some of her other …read more

Source: ‘Black Lives Matter’ Organizer "Triggered" By White People, Demands Money For Being A "Fat, Black Bitch"

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Experts say Donald Trump is right about this: China isn’t playing fair on trade. But his solution of using a big tariff isn’t the right approach. …read more

Source: How China doesn’t play fair on trade

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By Tyler Durden

Speaking from New York City, Donald Trump unveils his vice-presidential “partner” Mike Pence to the world…

Here is Dilbert Creator Scott Adams’ views on the VP pick…

You might be wondering what I think of Trump’s decision to pick Mike Pence for VP, given that Pence has disagreed with Trump on substantive policy issues in the past.

First of all, policies don’t matter in this election, or in any other election. Reason is mostly an illusion. And anyway, Pence will modify his positions to match Trump. No one cares.

Secondly, political experts say making a good choice for a VP running mate can’t help a candidate much, but a bad choice can hurt. Pence doesn’t do much to help, but he also doesn’t do much to hurt. So he’s a safe choice on that dimension. And he has plenty of government experience, as Trump says he needs. So Pence helps solve for Trump’s lack of experience. But those effects are all marginal.

What matters with Pence is how he looks in terms of contrast with Trump. The best choice for VP is someone who looks like a boring, washed-out version of the top of the ticket. You need that contrast to remind people that the top of the ticket is truly special.

Pence is an experienced politician. But you stand him next to Trump and he sort of disappears. The contrast persuades you – subconsciously – that Trump is better than an experienced politician. That’s totally irrational, and totally effective.

What’s Clinton’s biggest strength? Experience. How does Trump compare to the experienced politician on his own ticket? Better, at least in the public’s irrational way of thinking. So if Clinton and Pence are both experienced, and you prefer Trump over Pence, you somewhat automatically extend that thinking to Clinton – with all of her boring experience – and imagine her to be a weak version of Trump as well.

Replace Trump and Pence with Reagan and Bush-the-elder to see how well this contrast-based persuasion works.

And think of Obama picking Biden. It’s all the same persuasion trick. You want the VP to be the solid, uninteresting version of whoever is at the top of the ticket.

Now imagine if Trump had picked Gingrich for his VP running mate. Gingrich would make Trump look less experienced, less informed, and less intelligent by contrast. That’s a bad formula for winning. Gingrich is simply too interesting.

And after Gingrich came out in favor of testing Muslims for loyalty to Sharia law, he became the worst possible choice for Trump’s running mate. Trump is trying to move to the middle for the general election. Gingrich is running hard in the opposite direction. If Gingrich is not on the ticket, his radical-sounding ideas create an anchor that actually makes Trump look moderate by comparison. But if Gingrich had been a running mate, it would make a Trump presidency look scarier than it already is. And fear is Clinton’s best weapon against Trump. So …read more

Source: Donald Trump Unveils VP Pick Mike Pence – Live Feed

    

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By Tyler Durden

When we described the aftermath of Turkey’s failed, and painfully disorganized military coup attempt, we asked rhetorically, “Who wins?” To which we answered: “Why Erdogan of course. As he said during a press conference upon his arrival back in Istanbul in the early Saturday morning hours, the coup is an opportunity to “to purge the military.” Erdogan also vowed to exact “the highest price” from the perpetrators. Or, to summarize, the military said Erdogan’s power consolidation justifies the attempted coup; Erdogan said the coup justifies further consolidation of power.“

Overnight, when analyzing the market’s take of the coup, Renaissance Capital’s Michael Harris said that “for markets to respond positively, we think Erdogan must go the reconciliation route, pledging not to hold elections for the coming year and committing to a consensus approach to constitutional change. More likely, though, Erdogan will seek to leverage this into a constitutional super-majority via a snap election.”

Their conclusion: “A military coup has failed, but if Erdogan responds to this historic moment the wrong way, a democratic coup could be the result.“

Not surprisingly, as of this morning, Erdogan is indeed responding to this historic moment the “wrong way.” But before we get to that point, there are questions whether this coup was even that.

As a NYT analyst on the ground pointed out, confirming what we said last night, the planning, organization and implementation of the attempted military overthrow were suspect at best and outright laughable at worst:

Major point people are missing. Very few tanks out there compared to a full military chain-of-command coup. https://t.co/UGJHWwPMh5

— Zeynep Tufekci (@zeynep) July 16, 2016

We don’t have to remind readers that when military coups take place in the middle-east, they are i) ruthless, ii) extremely well-organized and planned, and iii) succeed on virtually every occasion. But not this one. The question why is what the media (or at least its fringes) will be pondering over the next few days and weeks.

What there is no question about, however, is Erdogan’s response, which as he warned last night, would begin with a quick crackdown against the army. As of this moment, hundreds of soldiers have already been arrested.

Hundreds of soldiers have been arrested following coup attempt in Turkey. pic.twitter.com/e1I9QEGxRG

— Jon Brain (@JonBrainNews) July 16, 2016

As AP adds, local NTV television has shown footage of a Turkish colonel and other soldiers being taken into custody at military headquarters. The video shows them being hand-searched by special forces police, their hands behind their heads. Some are later seen kneeling on the ground, their hands still held behind their heads.

According to Hurriyet newspaper’s online edition, some of the privates who were detained told interrogators they were not aware that they were part of a coup attempt. They had been told by commanders they were taking part in military maneuvers. Some said they understood that it was a coup attempt when they saw civilians climb on tanks.

The pro-Erdogan, state-run Anadolu Agency added all soldiers involved …read more

Source: The Counter-Coup Begins: Erdogan Purges 2,745 Judges, Prosecutors; Arrests Hundreds

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High-earning professional black men say they too face challenges when dealing with police — though sometimes the slights are less violent and more subtle. …read more

Source: For affluent blacks, wealth doesn’t stop profiling

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