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By Tyler Durden

The mind-numbing Case-Shiller regional charts below are presented without too much comment. As MHanson.com's Mark Hanson adds, the visual says it all.

Bottom line:

Q: If 2006/07 was the peak of the largest housing bubble in history with affordability never better vis a’ vis exotic loans; easy availability of credit; unemployment in the 4%’s; the total workforce at record highs; and growing wages, then what do you call “now” with house prices at or above 2006 levels; worse affordability; tighter credit; higher unemployment; a weakening total workforce; and shrinking wages?

A: Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than the Bubble 1.0 peak.

1) Funny (and Demented) Seattle area Realtor anecdote regarding the potential for another housing Bubble: “House prices can’t be in a bubble because they are only 10% greater than the 2006 peak, meaning growth of only 1% per year since 2006. And 1% per year is not the Bubble type gains we saw back in the mid-2000’s”.

DOH! How do you argue with that? You don’t, you just turn the other cheek and pound a drink.

2) Case-Shiller’s most Bubblicious Regions

Bottom line: If these key housing markets hit a wall they will take the rest of the nation with them; bubbles and busts don’t happen in “isolation”.

Not shown in these charts of absolute index levels is the three-straight months of national yy price gain deceleration. Moreover, the CS captures prices up to 7-months old at the tail so conditions are already a lot different than shown here.

3) Notes & Observations on above chart:

• The bubblicious regions above all have one thing in common…STEM. As such, if the tech and biotech sectors hit a wall, which some believe has already begun, so will these housing regions.

• If these key housing markets hit a wall they will take the rest of the nation with them; Bubbles and busts don’t happen in “isolation”.

• House prices have retaken Bubble 1.0 levels on the exact same drivers: easy/cheap/deep credit & liquidity that found its way to real estate. The only difference between both era’s is which cohorts controlled the credit and liquidity. In Bubble 1.0, end-users were in control. In this bubble, “professional”/private investors and foreigners are. But, they both drove demand and prices in the exact same manner. That is, as incremental buyers with easy/cheap/deep credit & liquidity, able to hit whatever the ask price was, and consequently — due to the US comparable sales appraisal process — pushed all house prices to levels far beyond what typical end-user, shelter-buyers can afford. Thus, the persistent, anemic demand.

• Bubble 2.0 has occurred without a corresponding demand surge just like peak Bubble 1.0. As such, it means something other than fundamental, end-user demand and economics is driving prices this time too.

• The end result of Bubble 2.0 will be the same as 1.0; a demand “mix-shift” and price “reset” back towards end-user fundamentals once the speculators finish up, or events force them to the “sidelines”.

• Lower prices will create demand, which …read more

Source: Housing Bubble 2.0 – Are You Ready For This?

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The U.S. stock market keeps hitting new highs. Why? Just about every other investment around the world looks awful. So slow and steady growth in America looks a lot more attractive by way of comparison. …read more

Source: Dow 20,000? Don’t laugh. Bulls are alive and well

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for latest details. …read more

Source: Nice attack prompts desperate Twitter searches

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By williambanzai7

…read more

Source: HaiRY HoLLaNDe THe NWO IDioT…

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Source: Fiat Chrysler adding 1,000 jobs to build new Jeep models

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

So did CNN intentionally pull the plug on its reporter, or was it just a convenient coincidence.

I’ll let you decide.

…read more

Source: Caught On Tape – CNN Reporter Cut Off Air As She Critiques Hillary Clinton

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By Tyler Durden

Two years after Bill Ackman unleashed the longest presentation in the world and battled Carl Icahn over his “take it to the grave” short position in Herbalife, it seems the hedge fund manager just got a death blow from The FTC:

• *FTC SAID TO DETERMINE HERBALIFE IS NOT PYRAMID SCHEME: DJ
• *HERBALIFE TO ANNOUNCE $200M SETTLEMENT WITH FTC TODAY: DJ

And HLF is soaring 14% in the pre-market.

As Bloomberg report:

• Herbalife, FTC expected to announce settlement today, DJ said, citing people familiar.
• HLF to pay $200m over claims of misrepresentations
• HLF agrees to change some business practices
• Settlement requires HLF to prove retail sales
• HLF up 15% premkt
• HLF short interest 21% of float: Markit

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has determined Herbalife is not a pyramid scheme, according to a report by Dow Jones, citing sources.

Under the settlement with regulators, Herbalife is expected to pay $200 million over claims of misrepresentation, Dow Jones said. The company also agreed to change some of its business practices and will have to prove its retail sales numbers are accurate.

…read more

Source: Ackman Crushed: Herbalife Soars 14% After FTC Concludes "Not A Pyramid Scheme"

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By Tyler Durden

The bizarre financial paradoxes unleashed by central planning continue.

While the S&P rises to new all time highs day after day, the IMF is about to downgrade global growth again, $13 trillion in global bonds trade with a negative yield, and the shape of the US yield curve is where it was the last time the US entered a recession. But what remains the most perplexing aspect of the unprecedented disconnect between market surreality and fundamentals, is the ongoing surge in corporate defaults, which is now on pace to surpass 2009, the worst year in history for corporate bankruptcies.

According to S&P, with half of 2016 in the history books, corporate bond defaults just hit the milestone “century” mark, or 100, last week, rising by 50% from the number of bankruptcies at this time last year and the highest level since the US emerged from recession in 2009. The number rose by four to 100 in the first full week of July, as defaults in the US oil and gas sector ratcheted higher, according to Diane Vazza of S&P Global Ratings, the FT reports.

As a result, the total amount of defaulted debt has risen to $154 billion.

But what is most troubling is that at the current run-rate, with half of 2016 still to come, the global debt default total is on pace to surpass 2009 for the all time corporate bankruptcy record.

And somehow this soon to be historic default cycle is supposed to be taking place in a time when not only has no major economy admitted it is in a recession (because, as everyone knows, it is all about confidence) but the S&P 500 keeps making new record highs daily.

Defaults have – so far – been led by energy companies, specifically low-rated crude producers, which have been slammed with a shortage of liquidity unable to secure (or refi into) new debt since oil began to tumble two years ago, while collateral bases shrunk substantially. That has forced many companies to renegotiate debt obligations with creditors, file for bankruptcy protection or miss interest payments.

More bankruptcies in the massively indebted energy sector are guaranteed as oil still trades at prices below profitable levels for many energy producers, and especially those with significant junk debt.

The latest defaults included distressed debt exchanges from oil group MD America Energy and FTS International, the largest private well servicer in the US, as well as a missed payment by telecommunications group Goodman Networks. S&P believes US defaults will rise to 5.3% less than one year from now, up from 3.8% a year ago.

“So far, there has been little spillover effect into other sectors, but we are not ruling this out in the coming quarters,” Vazza said. “We also expect this stress on many US oil and gas companies to persist with continued low oil prices.”

We, on the other hand, expect that – as the following chart from Morgan Stanley clearly shows – as the corporate default cycle is only now starting to ramp …read more

Source: Global Corporate Defaults Just Hit 100, On Pace To Surpass Financial Crisis Record

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By Tyler Durden

The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data. European stocks halted this week’s rally as French shares retreated following a deadly terror attack in Nice.

As expected in the aftermath of another tragic terrorist attack on French soil, which killed at least 80 and prompted France to extend a state of emergency, travel and leisure shares were among the worst performers on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index briefly exceeded its highest close of the year as the Hong Kong-listed stocks of Chinese companies extended their biggest weekly gain in four months and Taiwan’s equities entered a bull market. Japan’s Topix index capped its best week since 2009 and the yen slid on prospects for stimulus: Japan’s currency has now seen the biggest weekly drop in the 21st century on the back of rising chatter of helicopter money. The pound strengthened, oil fell and gold was poised for its first weekly loss since May.

The impact of the Nice terror attack on markets is not expected to have a lasting impact: past terror attacks on financial markets has typically proved short-lived and actually led to market rebounds. Multiple attacks in Paris in November that left 130 dead, as well as bombings that killed 191 people on Madrid commuter trains in March 2004 and left more than 50 dead in London in July 2005 spurred selloffs in equities that were erased days or weeks later.

“The attack in Nice is of course truly a horrible accident, but in terms of the market reaction, these kinds of shocks do not last very long,” said Michael Kapler, an equities manager at Mittelbrandenburgische Sparkasse in Potsdam, Germany. “There are rumors that the Japanese central bank will deliver the next liquidity push to the markets, and we are expecting the Bank of England to ease in August. The focus is there, as well as on the earnings season both in Europe and the U.S.”

More than $4 trillion has been added to the value of global equities since June 27 as the U.S. economy outperforms projections and speculation mounts that policy makers will take steps to limit the fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.

“We’re seeing better-than-expected growth, particularly in the U.S. economy, and we’ve got a higher likelihood of central bank stimulus,” Michael McCarthy, the Sydney-based chief market strategist at CMC Markets, told Bloomberg Radio. “These ideas are opposing, but at the moment they are both supporting equities. At some point there is going to have to be a resolution of that.”

But not yet, and as the chart below shows, global equities are now valued at $64.5 trillion, the …read more

Source: Global Stock Rally Halted In Aftermath Of Latest French Terror Attack

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

The eurosceptic Five Star Movement (M5S) has overtaken Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party (PD) in several opinion polls and is now the most popular political party in Italy.

The poll results represent a significant shift in Italy's political landscape and have potentially far-reaching implications for the future of the European Union.

M5S, which would win national elections if they were held today, has called for a referendum on whether Italy, which is facing the collapse of its banking system, should keep the euro, the single currency of the European Union, or bring back the Italian lira.

A move by Italy — the third-largest economy in the eurozone — to abandon the euro could strike a potentially fatal blow to the currency and to the bloc itself.

An Ipsos poll, published by the newspaper Corriere della Sera on July 5, gave M5S 30.6% of the vote, up from 28.9% in April, while Renzi's center-left PD fell to 29.8% from 31.1%.

A Demos poll, published by La Repubblica on July 1, gave M5S 32.3% of the vote, compared to 30.2% for the PD. An EMG Acqua poll for TeleGiornale La7 television on June 28 gave M5S 31.7%, compared to 31.2% for the PD.

According to Ipsos pollster Nando Pagnoncelli, the polls show that M5S “is increasingly viewed as a political force that is capable of governing the country.”

The anti-establishment M5S was founded in 2009 by Beppe Grillo, a well-known comedian and blogger who has led a popular fight against rampant corruption in Italy's political system. The party advocates for direct democracy — a system in which political decision making is devolved from the government to citizens — as a way to bypass traditional political parties embroiled in corruption scandals.

M5S, which portrays itself as post-ideological and draws support from both the left and right sides of the political aisle, has leveraged the internet to attract millions of voters, especially among the young.

The 67-year-old Grillo recently handed over the reins of the party to a new “directorate” of five young leaders, of which 30-year-old Luigi Di Maio has become the most prominent. He is widely expected to be the party's candidate for prime minister at the next election.

M5S achieved a major breakthrough in municipal elections on June 20, when it won 19 out of the 20 cities — including Rome and …read more

Source: Could Italy Bring Down The Euro?

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