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Bancopalypse 2.0 – Some Disturbing Figures From The Looming Financial Crisis

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In early 1870, the Kingdom of Prussia and French Empire were about to go to war.

It was one of countless conflicts between the dozens of European kingdoms and empires throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, and this one was over before it even started.

Prussia’s military might was legendary. They had recently beaten the pants off of Austria and Denmark, and they’d go on to neutralize or capture over 80% of French soldiers within a matter of months, while losing just 2% of their own.

Very few wars have been so one-sided.

And yet despite its nearly unparalleled military successes and clear dominance in European politics, Prussia lacked something critical: financial power.

Prussia’s economy was robust and healthy. But businesses across all German kingdoms depended almost exclusively on the British banking system to conduct international trade.

It was similar to how nearly the entire world depends on Wall Street mega-banks today for global trade. Germany lacked its own strong financial system.

So on March 10, 1870, King Wilhelm I of Prussia (soon to be German Emperor) granted a banking license to a trio of local entrepreneurs and gave them explicit instructions to establish a banking powerhouse.

And that’s exactly what they did. The bank was called Deutsche Bank, and it eventually grew into one of the largest banks in the world.

Deutsche Bank has seen a lot in its years; multiple world wars and the devastation of Europe. Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. Nazi Germany.

The bank even outlasted its own country, as the Kingdom of Prussia was formally abolished in 1947.

But as the world learned in 2008 when the 158-year old investment bank Lehman Brothers went bust, even giant, centuries-old financial institutions can collapse.

Banking is such a bizarre industry when you think about it.

Regular, everyday people like you and I fork over our hard-earned savings to banks.

They take our money and do some of the most insane things with it… whether loaning it to jobless, homeless people, or buying the negative-yielding debts of bankrupt governments.

You and I would never do anything so foolish with our own funds. Yet we hand everything over to banks and give them full license to engage in this madness.

And even when their decisions blow up and they go to the taxpayer with hat in hand for a bailout, they prove that they have memories like goldfish.

Today, banks are up to the same tricks as they were 10 years ago, except they’ve taken things to a whole new level.

And Deutsche Bank is leading the charge.

One of the major issues in the 2008 crisis was that banks were over-leveraged and had very thin levels of capital.

In other words, the banks’ rainy-day reserve funds as a percentage of their overall balance sheets were extremely low, so even a small loss in their investment portfolios would cause financial Armageddon.

That’s precisely what happened.

Lehman Brothers famously had a capital ratio of less than 3% of its assets. So when the value of its assets fell by more than 3%, the bank was finished.

Well-capitalized …read more

Source: Bancopalypse 2.0 – Some Disturbing Figures From The Looming Financial Crisis

    

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Some Stocks Fall: Mainstream Media Proclaims "Flat Is Kind Of A Win!"

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By Tyler Durden

Some stocks did not rise today… but do not worry – one clever CNBC chap noted “flat is kind of a win!” – nevertheless, panic began to sweep the mainstream media as a new record high was not achieved in some indices…

Another day, another record high for stocks with a pre-open ramp…

but that was the best of it… although the panic bid resumed after Europe closed…

In cash, Trannies which went vertical as CSX earning sleaked before the bell)

But stocks remain the post-payrolls winner…

Notably The Dow stuck around its previous record high again 18,351 intraday…

Another new high in July, which FBN Securities technical analyst JC O’Hara notes could be a problem…

Since 1950, 27 years posted a new 52-week high in July; avg. 3-month pattern suggests “new high momentum fizzled” into sideways trading, with median pullback 7.5%, avg. decline nearly 12.5%..

After a July high, stocks bottom in late October.

“Chasing the market is not the best option” especially amid “plethora of severely overbought breadth indicators.”

And today, bonds notably decoupled from stocks once again…

Having decoupled for a few days, VIX dipped today to a 12 handle – smells a lot like managers unwinding hedged positions (i.e. covering hedge and reducing underlying exposure)…

Treasury yields tumbled 2-5bps (long-end outperforming) as yesterday's CNBC call for the start of the Great Rotation is dashed…

The USD Index ended very modestly lower but basically flat on the week as the chaos in GBP and JPY swung the other way today (GBP weakness on May and cabinet apointments and JPY strength on Heli money denials) biggest drop in Cable in 7 days…

Silver and Gold gained on the day, as did Copper extending its post-payrolls gains to 6%!! but crude tumbled…

Biggest 3-day surge in Copper in over 4 months…

Dramtically bigger than expected Distillates build and production rise sent oil sliding today back to 9 week lows (below $45)

As the 2015 analog looks increasingly spooky…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Some Stocks Fall: Mainstream Media Proclaims "Flat Is Kind Of A Win!"

    

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Talk Of Oil "Death Spiral" Emerges

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By Tyler Durden

One week ago, we looked at an epic build up of gasoline inventories on the East Coast, also known as PADD1, which had slammed the crack spread to record lows for this time of the year, and asked if “This What Finally Drags Crude Oil Lower.” We were referring to the collapsing Crack Spreads, which show that something disturbing is taking place for US refingers who are no longer able to “internalize” the massive crude glut.

U.S. gasoline crack spread a proxy for refiner margins, has dropped 34 percent in two weeks. On Wednesday, it hit a five-year low for this time of year below $13 a barrel. That is less than half the crack spread of $28 a barrel at this time last year.

As of today, the WTI crack spread was $13.1, largely unchanged from a week ago.

We then quoted Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group in Darien, who summarized it best by saying that “PADD 1 is a holy mess. It is very unusual. If a market becomes extremely oversupplied, like PADD 1, they are going to have to cut runs.” That is another way of saying refiners will have to stay shut, which in turn will force crude to build up in various on and offshore storage locations.

Our summary of the strange events taking place in the US refining industry:

with the inventory bottlenecking having reached all the way to the gasoline level, in lieu of refiner buying, crude producers will be forced to start selling oil and dumping prices just to get marginal demand as both onshore and offshore storage is near capacity. Most likely this will happen in the next few weeks, when coupled with the near full Chinese SPR, the slump in Chinese oil demand, the elimination in Nigerian supply overhangs, the resumption of Libyan exports, it will send the price of oil tumbling, and incidentally replaying the summer of 2015 when crude crashed…

One week later, and with gasoline and distillate inventory builds continuing to rise precariously, it appears that this sentiment is starting to permeate the analyst community. This is how WSJ's Market Talk blog describes what is going on:

Inventories of gasoline and other refined products in the US rose strongly last week, weighing on prices today. It's the result of months of cheap crude prompting refiners to buy more crude and run at higher rates to turn it into products. Lipow Oil Associates sees the start of a “death spiral” as “product inventories are high, margins come under pressure, refiners reduce crude runs and therefore the crude-oil glut grows to the point where someone wants to discount” to unload it–inspiring refiners “to kick up their runs again.” .

End result: today WTI closed the NYMEX session at its lowest level since May 10. It may be only the beginning.

…read more

Source: Talk Of Oil "Death Spiral" Emerges

    

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Former DOJ Prosecutor Sues Obama, Black Lives Matter And Eric Holder For Inciting Race War

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By Tyler Durden

In a lawsuit filed in Texas, Larry Klayman – a former prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice and founder of the conservative watchdog organizations Judicial Watch and Freedom Watch – has accused President Obama, Black Lives Matter founders and former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder among others, of fueling a race war that led to the murder of police in Dallas last week. The lawsuit seeks “to redress the incitement, threats and killings provoked by the defendants.

In his lawsuit, Klayman also named Al Sharpton and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in the suit. The lawsuit, filed Saturday in Dallas, alleges that the defendants are guilty of civil rights violations, terrorist promotion of gang activity, and aiding and abetting murder.

The defendants are accused of “inciting the imminent serious bodily injury and killing of police officers and other law enforcement persons of all races and ethnicities, Jews, and Caucasians by convincing their supporters and others that there is a civil war between blacks and law enforcement, thereby calling for immediate violence and severe bodily injury or death in response to that non-existent and fictitious threat.”

Klayman had this to say upon the filing of this class action complaint:

“It’s time that law enforcement, such as the plaintiffs in this case, including myself, come forward by peacefully attempting to use the legal system to redress the incitement, threats and killings provoked by the defendants in this class action case. I am hopeful that I will be joined by other law enforcement to join in the suit. For too long, law enforcement and others, including white and non-white Jews and Christians, have remained silent, scared to speak and act, for fear of being branded racists over the fear of being threatened and harmed by the defendants and their accomplices. This must stop and justice must be done to preserve the integrity of our great nation and to avoid an all out race war that will destroy the freedom that our Founding Fathers dedicated their sacred honor, their fortunes and risked their lives for.”

The case seeks damages of more than $2 billion.

Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com

For more information or an interview, contact leklayman@yahoo.com and see www.freedomwatchusa.org or call 561-558-5336.

The full lawsuit is below (link):

…read more

Source: Former DOJ Prosecutor Sues Obama, Black Lives Matter And Eric Holder For Inciting Race War

    

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Steller 30Y Auction Sees Highest Foreign Central Bank Buying On Record, Helped By Short Squeeze

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By Tyler Durden

Heading into today’s 30Y auction, Stone McCarthy said that “specials galore”, noting that “though pressure might have eased up on the 3-year and 10-year, it has tightened on the 5-year and 2-year notes. Both issues are trading special at zero basis points this morning. Most off the run issues are still trading near GC, though the old 30-year bond is a bit tight at 25 basis points.”

That hinted to us that there may be a small short squeeze as the US sells $12 billion in 30Y bonds today, helping the auction following this week’s disastrous 3 and 10Y auctions, and sure enough moments ago the high yield on the 30Y printed at 2.172%, stopping through the 2.176% When Issued.

However, the high yield was just the beginning for this spectacular auction.

The bid to cover jumped from 2.423 to 2.485, the highest since last September’s 2.536.

But the real story was the internals, where 68.5% was allotted to Indirect Bidders – this was the biggest allottment to foreign central banks and official buyers on record. Directs took down 8.4% of the auction and Dealers were left with 23.1%, the lowest on record as well.

So while demand may have been lacking for shorter maturities, when it comes to longer durations, 2.17% is seemingly a tremendous bogey and everyone wants a piece.

…read more

Source: Steller 30Y Auction Sees Highest Foreign Central Bank Buying On Record, Helped By Short Squeeze

    

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Why Trump isn’t scaring the stock market

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The usual Wall Street reaction to a shock like Trump is to sell, sell, sell. Yet so far, Trump isn’t scaring investors. Stocks are at all-time highs. …read more

Source: Why Trump isn’t scaring the stock market

    

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Be Aware, But Not There! National ‘Day of Rage’ Scheduled For July 15th, 2016

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By Tyler Durden

Via The Feral Irishman,

The hacktivist group Anonymous is now calling for nationwide Day of Rage protests on Friday, July 15th. The video below promotes the protests.

(WARNING: There is some disturbing and graphic violence in this video):

Use this as a list of places NOT to be on Friday the 15th. While the video by Anonymous does specify non-violence and denounces the actions taken against police officers that were not involved in these deaths, with the tagline “Day of Rage” I think it’s safe to expect emotions to be running very high on both sides of the line. No matter how great your empathy might be for those who have unjustly lost their lives, these protests are not safe places to be.

These are the locations and times for the protests:

  • Phoenix: 5:00PM (EASTLAKE PARK, 1549 E Jefferson St , Phoenix, AZ 85034)
  • Tuscon: 5:00PM (CATALINA PARK, 900 N 4th Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85705)
  • Little Rock: 6:00PM (OUTSIDE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, Dr Martin Luther King Jr Dr., Little Rock, AR 72201)
  • San Francisco: 4:00PM (CIVIC CENTER PLAZA, 355 Mcallister St, San Francisco, California 94102)
  • Oakland: 4:00PM (FRANK OGAWA PLAZA, 1 Frank H Ogawa Plaza, Oakland, CA 94612)
  • Los Angeles: 4:00PM (LEIMERT PLAZA PARK, 4395 Leimert Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90008)
  • Denver: 5:00PM (CIVIC CENTER PARK, 100 W 14th Ave Pkwy, Denver, Colorado 80204)
  • Washington DC: 7:00PM (OUTSIDE WHITE HOUSE, 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20500)
  • Atlanta: 7:00PM (OLD DECATUR COURTHOUSE, 101 E Court Sq, Decatur, GA 30030)
  • Tampa: 7:00PM (OUTSIDE HILLSBOROUGH COURTHOUSE, 800 E Twiggs St, Tampa, FL)
  • Orlando: 7:00PM (LAKE EOLA PARK, 195 N Rosalind Ave, Orlando, Florida 32801)
  • Miami: 7:00PM (GWEN CHERRY PARK, NW 71 St., Miami, Florida, 33147)
  • Chicago: 6:00PM (RICHARD J DALEY CENTER, 50 W Washington St, Chicago, Illinois 60602)
  • Des Moines: 6:00PM (IOWA STATE CAPITOL, 1007 E Grand Ave, Des Moines, IA 50319)
  • New Orleans: 6:00PM (LAFAYETTE SQUARE, New Orleans, LA 70130)
  • Baltimore: 7:00PM (201 E Pratt St, Baltimore, MD 21202)
  • Boston: 7:00PM (MASSACHUSETTS STATE HOUSE, 24 Beacon St, Boston, MA 01233)
  • Detroit: 7:00PM (Campus Martius Park, Detroit, Michigan 48226)
  • Lansing: 7:00PM (STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, Capitol Avenue at Michigan Avenue, Lansing, MI 48933)
  • Ann Arbor: 7:00PM (THE DIAG, Burns Park, Ann Arbor, MI 48109)
  • Minneapolis: 6:00PM (MINNEAPOLIS URBAN LEAGUE, 2100 Plymouth Ave N, Minneapolis, MN 55411
  • St. Louis: 6:00PM (GATEWAY ARCH, St. Louis 63102)
  • Carson City: 4:00PM (NEVADA STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, 101 N Carson St, Carson City, Nevada 89701)
  • Manhattan, NY: 7:00PM (TIMES SQUARE, Manhattan, NY, 10036)
  • Newark: 7:00PM (NEWARK CITY HALL, 920 Broad Street, Newark, New Jersey 07102)
  • Durham: 7:00PM (200 E. Main St. Durham, North Carolina)
  • Columbus: 7:00PM (GOODALE PARK, Columbus, Ohio 43215)
  • Cleveland: 7:00PM (CLEVELAND PUBLIC LIBRARY, 325 Superior Ave E, Cleveland, Ohio 44114)
  • Portland: 4:00PM (PIONEER COURTHOUSE SQUARE, 701 SW 6th Ave, Portland, Oregon 97204)
  • Philadelphia: 7:00PM (LOVE PARK, 1599 John F Kennedy Blvd, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19102)
  • Pittsburgh: 7:00PM (PITTSBURGH CITY-COUNTY BUILDING, 414 Grant St, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15219)
  • Nashville: 6:00PM (801 Broadway Nashville, TN 37203 Estes Kefauver Federal Building)
  • Memphis: 6:00PM (Health Sciences Park Memphis, TN)
  • Austin: 6:00PM (TEXAS STATE CAPITOL, Outside South Gate-11th and Congress Ave.)
  • Salt Lake City: 5:00PM (SALT LAKE CITY COMMUNITY COLLEGE, 4600 S Redwood Rd, Salt Lake City, Utah 84123)
  • Seattle: 4:00PM (QUEEN …read more

    Source: Be Aware, But Not There! National ‘Day of Rage’ Scheduled For July 15th, 2016

        

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Loonie Surges As BOC Keeps Rate Unchanged, Cuts 2016, 2017 GDP, Blames Brexit, Wildfires, Weak Consumption

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By Tyler Durden

The Bank of Canada did not surprise moments ago when it kept the overnight rate at 0.5%, as expected The Bank said that the “current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate” adding that risks to inflation profile are roughly balanced. It also said that “fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.”

Where the BOC did surprise was in its latest cut to Canada’s economic outlook: the central bank now expects GDP to grow 1.3% in 2016, 2.2% in 2017, down from 1.7%, 2.3%, respectively.

The BOC said that Real GDP is expected to fall 1% in 2Q, pulled down by “volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wildfires.” It does expect Real GDP to grow 3.5% in 3Q as oil production resumes, rebuilding in Fort McMurray occurs, and the Canada Child Benefit boosts consumer spending. However, that won’t offset the full year slowdown, which sees 2016 growth slased by 0.4%.

Some other points:

  • Brexit to decrease the level of Canada’s GDP by 0.1% over projection period
  • Contribution of exports to average annual real GDP growth in 2016 revised downwards to 0.3 from 1.1 percentage points
  • Bank: Output gap will close near the end of 2017, later than estimated in April, due to downward revisions to business investment
  • Contribution of business fixed investment to average annual real GDP growth in 2017 revised downwards to 0.2 from 0.4 percentage points
  • Recent housing market developments in Vancouver and Toronto have “exacerbated” financial vulnerabilities in the household sector
  • Contraction of investment spending in the oil and gas sector will be nearly complete by end of 2016

The Loonie’s kneejerk reaction shows an immediate relief that the BOC did not cut, although rate cuts may still be coming.

Full statement below:

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is on track to return to 2 per cent in 2017 as the complex adjustment underway in Canada’s economy proceeds. The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.

In this context, the forecast for the global economy has been marked down slightly from the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9 per cent in 2016, 3.3 per cent in 2017, and 3.5 per cent in 2018. In particular, after a weak start to 2016 the US economy is showing signs of a rebound, with a healthy labour market and solid consumption growth. In the wake of Brexit, global markets have materially re-priced a number of asset classes. Financial conditions, already accommodative, have become even more so.

In Canada, the quarterly pattern of growth has been uneven. Real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 per cent in the second …read more

Source: Loonie Surges As BOC Keeps Rate Unchanged, Cuts 2016, 2017 GDP, Blames Brexit, Wildfires, Weak Consumption

    

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South China Sea Tensions Surge After Taiwan Deploys Frigate, China Warns Of "Air Defense Zone"

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By Tyler Durden

Following the much anticipated ruling by the international court which found yesterday that China does not have a right to claims on the South China Sea, an unexpected supporter for China’s position – which has vocally warned it won’t comply with the tribunal’s ruling – emerged overnight when Taiwan, which shares territorial claims with China in the disputed area – sent a naval frigate to patrol the disputed waterway Wednesday, to show the government’s “determination” to defend its national interest.

The order from Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen came just hours after the Permanent Court of Arbitration found found that the largest natural feature in the contested Spratly Islands, the Taiwanese-held Itu Aba, was a “rock” rather than an island and didn’t qualify for a 200-nautical mile (370 kilometer) exclusive economic zone. The frigate’s planned patrol included a resupply stop at the feature, which Taiwan calls Taiping, a defense ministry spokesman said.

Taiping island

As Bloomberg writes, confirming what we said yesterday after the tribunal’s ruling, the decision to deploy the warship could further escalate tensions in the area. China has said it doesn’t recognize the court’s jurisdiction. Overnight, China firmly rejected the verdict claiming its ruling on the South China Sea is both “null and void” with no binding force. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Tuesday called the South China Sea arbitration a political farce made under the pretext of law.

As a reminder, the ruling, resulting from a challenge brought by the Philippines, invalidated China’s “nine-dash line” claim. China’s assertions cross over with those from countries like Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, and are based on a map created by Taiwan’s Republic of China government in 1947. Taiwan has administered Itu Aba since the 1950s.

The chart below, showing that 40% of Chinese oil imports pass through the contested region, explains why the disputed territory is of vital importance to China. The region is also home to 10% of the world’s commercial ocean fish stock, and lies above an estimated 11 billion barrels in oil reserves.

China also warned Wednesday it was ready to set up an air defense identification zone over disputed waters, repeating a threat it first made one month ago. “If our security is being threatened, of course we have the right to demarcate a zone,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said on Wednesday.

A new air defence identification zone (ADIZ) would likely increase tensions not only with the Philippines, but also with other rivals to claims in the South China Sea, including Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. China declared an ADIZ over disputed islands in the East China Sea in 2013, a move which caused anger with Japan and the United States.

Vice minister Liu said the islands were China’s “inherent territory”, as he launched a policy paper in response to the ruling. “We hope that other countries will not take this opportunity to threaten China and to work with China to protect the peace and stability of the South …read more

Source: South China Sea Tensions Surge After Taiwan Deploys Frigate, China Warns Of "Air Defense Zone"

    

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Donald Trump Rips Ginsburg: "Her Mind Is Shot, She Should Resign" As NYT Says Trump Is Right

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By Tyler Durden

Following two days of inexplicable attacks by none other than a Supreme Court Justice, who said she would move to New Zealand if Trump were elected, as well as calling Trump “a faker”, the Donald finally snapped and ripped Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in a Twitter message late Tuesday. “Justice Ginsburg of the U.S. Supreme Court has embarrassed all by making very dumb political statements about me,” Trump wrote on his Twitter account. “Her mind is shot — resign.

As Fox notes, Trump has been on the defensive after Ginsburg told the Associated Press last week that she felt he was unqualified for the position. She said in an interview that she didn’t want to think about the possibility that Trump would be president and predicted that Democrat Hillary Clinton would win. Trump told the New York Times earlier Tuesday that her comments were “highly inappropriate” and a “disgrace to the court.”

“It’s highly inappropriate that a United States Supreme Court judge gets involved in a political campaign, frankly … I think she should apologize to the court. I would hope that she would get off the court as soon as possible,” he added.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that it was “totally inappropriate” for Ginsburg to criticize Trump. McConnell said that members of the Supreme Court shouldn’t weigh in on American elections.

“It raises a level of skepticism that the American people have from time to time about just how objective the Supreme Court is, whether they’re over there to call the balls and strikes, or weigh in on one side or another,” he said.

None of the above was unexpected, but in a truly surprising twist none other than liberal media bastion, the NYT, issued an Op-Ed overnight titled “Donald Trump Is Right About Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg“, in which it said “Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to drop the political punditry and the name-calling.”

In this election cycle in particular, the potential of a new president to affect the balance of the court has taken on great importance, with the vacancy left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. As Justice Ginsburg pointed out, other justices are nearing an age when retirement would not be surprising. That makes it vital that the court remain outside the presidential process. And just imagine if this were 2000 and the resolution of the election depended on a Supreme Court decision. Could anyone now argue with a straight face that Justice Ginsburg’s only guide would be the law?

Judging by the surprising move in swing states which now support Trump over Hillary, it appears that Ginsburg’s intervention may have once again ended up helping Trump at a time when he sorely needed an outside intervention to prop up his presidential chances.

The full NYT Op-Ed is below:

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to drop the political punditry and the name-calling.

Three times in the past week, Justice Ginsburg has publicly discussed her view of the presidential race, in the sharpest terms. In an …read more

Source: Donald Trump Rips Ginsburg: "Her Mind Is Shot, She Should Resign" As NYT Says Trump Is Right

    

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