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The Chinese Will Need Another Bailout

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By Tyler Durden

Here we go again. China is primed for more bailouts as their corporations and State Owned Enterprises (SOE) continue burning through billions of yuan. At the turn of the month we learned Sinopec manipulated revenues. As Reuters reported at the time, some 12 subsidiaries of Sinopec had fake invoices among other faults. Chinese companies are loading up on debt and they are investing it terribly.

Reuters also said 10 state-owned firms had “huge losses” driven primarily from bad investment decisions. Sinopec subsidiaries blew cash on 14 unused chemical plants as well acquiring two dozen fuel stations illegally.

“China's national audit department reviewed the financials of the 10 largest state-owned companies including Aluminium Corporation of China (CHALCO), Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), exposing huge losses in these firms as a result of low efficiency and bad investment decisions. The auditing office also pointed to wasted investments Sinopec's subsidiaries made, such as 14 unused chemical plants, and raised red flags on two dozen “illegally acquired” fuel stations.”

Oh yeah, these guys are real winners when it comes to running business and making investments. As Citi pointed out, China's SOE's have Pre-tax Profit Margins and Liability-to-Asset ratios that do not appear to reflect wise decision making:

China's corporations are horrible with investment. We are not shocked by this. We expect many more Chinese bailouts to come as the country's money-gods lose total control of the monster they have unleashed through reckless monetary policy.

The investment decisions have become so bad that a source told Bloomberg that up to 10 SOE's may require a bail out:

China is considering providing about 10 of its state-owned enterprises with an aid package, people familiar with the matter said. Sinosteel Corp. is among those that may receive help, one of the people said

In an effort to throw the kitchen sink plus more at the equity market, China will now be deferring a portion of a $300 billion pension fund into the Chinese market. A wise choice? Perhaps not, especially since the Chinese have painted themselves into another bailout corner.

With malinvestment as we saw re: Sinopec, to China's need to backstop at least 10 failing state-owned enterprises, and now the clear desperation of getting pension money exposed to the equity market, presumably ahead of more central bank stimulus, it's becoming evident that the Chinese are running out of options. Once the entire nation is invested in stocks and the central bank is buying hand over fist, the Chinese market manipulation will have jumped the shark, because their explosive Debt-to-GDP didn't seem to mark a turning point in the Chinese economic story as of yet:

But don't worry, the National Council for Social Security Fund in China that will manage the pension fund investments has an appreciation from the Chinese people akin to what some believe American's have for Warren Buffett, reportedly:

The NCSSF has “such a good reputation in being a value investor that if they take the lead, the signaling effect is actually …read more

Source: The Chinese Will Need Another Bailout

    

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Posted July 12th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Don’t Just Blame The Cops: Who Is Responsible For America’s Killing Fields?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“I could never again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greatest purveyor of violence in the world today: my own government. For the sake of those boys, for the sake of this government, for the sake of the hundreds of thousands trembling under our violence, I cannot be silent.”—Martin Luther King Jr.

The latest shootings—in Texas, Minnesota, Louisiana, Illinois, New York, Missouri and every other state in the nation—are symptomatic of a psychotic outbreak by a nation that has been waging a war against its own citizens for too long.

We have long since passed the stage at which a government of wolves would give rise to a nation of sheep. As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, what we now have is a government of psychopaths that is actively breeding a nation of psychopathic killers.

We’re getting distracted, people.

Instead of focusing our ire on the architects of the American police state, who are responsible for turning the streets into mini-war zones, we’re getting distracted by the many voices eager to play the blame game by pointing their fingers at someone else.

Police groups are blaming President Obama and the Justice Department for failing to prosecute “cop killers.” Texas Republicans are blaming the Black Lives Matter movement for fomenting a “war on cops” mindset. Gun control advocates are blaming “gun lovers and their mouthpieces at the National Rifle Association” for America’s gun violence, reasoning that if all Americans were unarmed, police would not have to treat them as potential threats.

News outlets such as Rolling Stone and Mother Jones have concluded that racial bias is to blame for the “disproportionately high number of African-Americans among police shooting victims.” The Drug Enforcement Administration has suggested that illegal steroid use could be responsible for “police officers who exhibit rage, aggression and/or poor judgment (all symptoms of possible steroid abuse) in confrontations with citizens.”

Human Rights Watch blames police misconduct and excessive use of force on a systemic lack of accountability within law enforcement agencies and the criminal justice system. And civil rights advocates are blaming police militarization and the abundance of laws (overcriminalization) pushed by lawmakers for the nation’s over-policing, over-jailing and over-killing.

Yet in the midst of all this finger pointing, no one is stepping forward to take responsibility for the violence that is tearing the nation apart, deepening racial tensions, heightening police tensions, justifying all manner of civil liberties abuses, and pushing us ever closer to a state of lockdown.

Shame on President Obama for not taking personal responsibility for the blowback resulting from America’s endless wars abroad, the militarization of local police, and the ramifications of allowing police to use battlefield equipment such as drones, assault weapons, tanks, etc. How telling that the first domestic killing of an American citizen by a drone (in this case, …read more

Source: Don’t Just Blame The Cops: Who Is Responsible For America’s Killing Fields?

    

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Posted July 12th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Harvard Study Finds No Racial Bias In Police Shootings

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By Tyler Durden

A very recently published Harvard study on racial bias in police use of force finds that, as the mainstream narrative proffers, black men and women are treated differently in the hands of law enforcement. However, in what the (African-American) author of the study calls “the most surprising result of my career,” when it comes to the most lethal form of force – police shootings – the study finds no racial bias, contradicting the mental image of police shootings that many Americans hold.

As The NY Times reports, the study did not say whether the most egregious examples — the kind of killings at the heart of the nation’s debate on police shootings — are free of racial bias. Instead, it examined a much larger pool of shootings, including nonfatal ones. It focused on what happens when police encounters occur, not how often they happen. (There’s a disproportionate number of tense interactions among blacks and the police when shootings could occur, and thus a disproportionate outcome for blacks.) Racial differences in how often police-civilian interactions occur have been shown reflect greater structural problems in society.

Black men and women are treated differently in the hands of law enforcement. They are more likely to be touched, handcuffed, pushed to the ground or pepper-sprayed by a police officer, even after accounting for how, where and when they encounter the police…

But Roland G. Fryer Jr., the African-American author of the study and a professor of economics at Harvard – which examined more than 1,000 shootings in 10 major police departments, in Texas, Florida and California, was “surprised” to find that when it comes to the most lethal form of force — police shootings — the study finds no racial bias.

Mr. Fryer said his anger after the deaths of Michael Brown and Freddie Gray and others drove him to study the issue. “You know, protesting is not my thing,” he said. “But data is my thing. So I decided that I was going to collect a bunch of data and try to understand what really is going on when it comes to racial differences in police use of force.”

In officer-involved shootings in these 10 cities, officers were more likely to fire their weapons without having first been attacked when the suspects were white. Black and white civilians involved in police shootings were equally likely to have been carrying a weapon. Both of these results undercut the idea that the police wield lethal force with racial bias.

…

However, for Mr. Fryer, who has spent much of his career studying ways society can close the racial achievement gap, the failure to punish excessive everyday force is an important contributor to young black disillusionment.

“Who the hell wants to have a police officer put their hand on them or yell and scream at them? It’s an awful experience,” he said. “I’ve had it multiple, multiple times. Every black man I know has had this experience. Every one of them. It is hard to believe that the world is …read more

Source: Harvard Study Finds No Racial Bias In Police Shootings

    

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Posted July 12th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

One Year After Surpassing Walmart, Amazon Is Now Bigger Than Berkshire

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By Tyler Durden

Jeff Bezos has marked another milestone. Nearly one year to the day following Amazon’s surpassing of Walmart’s market capitalization on the heels of a great report on AWS (Amazon Web Services) growth numbers, Amazon has surpassed another American business icon’s market capitalization, that of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway…

Notably tomorrow is Amazon Prime Day 2016.

Leaving the big question – when does Amazon rise to Apple’s market cap level or will Apple fall to Amazon’s market cap level? Place your bets…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: One Year After Surpassing Walmart, Amazon Is Now Bigger Than Berkshire

    

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Posted July 12th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy’s Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession

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By Tyler Durden

Piling on to Italy’s growing mountain of worries, this evening the IMF itself warned that Europe’s third largest economy would grow by less than 1% this year and only marginally faster in 2017, slashing its previous forecasts of 1.1% and 1.25% growth for the next two years, mostly as a result of the most convenient scapegoat available in Europe at the moment: Brexit (which has become to Europe as “cold weather” has been to the US for the past two years).

Christine Lagarde’s organization said Italy was “recovering gradually from a deep and protracted recession”, but said the healing process was likely to be “prolonged and subject to risks”. It used its article IV consultation – an annual economic and financial health check – to stress that Italy was vulnerable to a cocktail of threats that could have knock-on effects for the rest of Europe and the world.

The IMF dour outlook may be overly generous. While economists have been racing to downgrade Italy’s outlook since the British referendum, Italy’s own employers’ lobby Confindustria now sees growth of just 0.8% this year dropping further to 0.6% in 2017. Italy, long one of Europe’s most sluggish economies, will struggle to close the gap with its peers even if recent reforms are fully implemented, the IMF report said.

The punchline: only by around 2025 will Italian output return to its 2008 peak before the global financial crisis, according to the IMF. In the same period, growth among Italy’s euro zone partners is expected to rise by 20–25% above their pre-crisis levels. In other words, Italy is now in the middle of what will end up being a two-decade recession.

“The authorities thus face a monumental challenge. The recovery needs to be strengthened to reduce high unemployment faster and buffers need to be built, including by repairing strained bank balance sheets and decisively lowering the very high public debt,” the report said.

“Downside risks arise from delays in addressing bank asset quality, intensified global financial market volatility – including from Brexit, the global trade slowdown weighing on exports, and the refugee influx and security threats that could further complicate policymaking,” said the IMF. “If downside risks were to materialise, regional and global spillovers could be significant, given Italy’s systemic weight.”

And speaking of Italy’s weakest links, the banks, the IMF said that “risks are tilted to the downside,” listing a raft of issues including the poor asset quality of Italy’s banks, financial market volatility and the impact of a global trade slowdown on exports.

“If downside risks were to materialize, regional and global spillovers could be significant given Italy’s systemic weight,” it said.

In an assessment that will hardly help Italian bank stocks, the IMF said that the country’s banks, which are saddled with some 360 billion euros of bad loans and whose share prices have fallen by more than 50 percent this year, are a particular threat to the economic outlook, the IMF said. “Unless asset quality and profitability problems are addressed in a timely manner, …read more

Source: IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy’s Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession

    

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Posted July 12th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Millennials Pay Rent By Selling Their Parents’ Jewelry

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By Tyler Durden

With the market just shy of all-time highs, it would be reasonable for one to assume, looking at nothing else, that the American economy is wonderful. One may even wish to ponder the joyous thought of a younger generation living better than their parents. The problem is that the youth of America are saddled with debt and the university they took on the debt to attend left them with a lacking skill-set after graduation.

So what's an American youth to do? Aside from perhaps investing it in a Ghost Skyscraper.

Call Provident Loan Society of New York and pledge your family heirlooms for rent money.

That's how all great economies work right? The New York Post reported earlier that Provident's chief of marketing Scott Watson spoke with Post reporter Lisa Fickenscher and said his firm, which secures microloans with valuable jewelry, has seen volumes increase 8% this year. He added that most of his clients are in their mid-thirties.

Provident Loan Society of New York – a nonprofit that provides microloans secured by valuable jewelry – reports that the number of new customers applying for loans is up 8 percent year-to-date compared with 2015.

“These are people who have inherited jewelry and might have a shortfall on their rent or a medical bill,” Scott Watson, chief marketing officer, told our Lisa Fickenscher. Upper East Side-based Provident was founded by J.P. Morgan and Cornelius Vanderbilt in 1893.

Provident is holding an auction on July 12 at Doyle New York of baubles belonging to borrowers who either couldn’t pay off their loan or chose not to.

Among the items is an 18-karat gold Bulgari bracelet with 24 diamonds for an estimated $5,000.

Not shocking in lieu of what we said one month ago, almost to the day:

According to CLSA economists, who have updated an analysis we first did in the summer of 2010, if the participation rate stayed at the levels before the financial crisis, the unemployment rate would be 9.6%, more than double what it is today.

But hey, as long as we're not clear on what data we're “data dependent” on, reality is whatever you want to make it be but when the bills comes due and you can't afford it, you may be asking Do I Need A Roomate?

…read more

Source: Millennials Pay Rent By Selling Their Parents’ Jewelry

    

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Posted July 11th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The Chart That Barack Obama Does Not Want Youung, Black Males To See

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By Tyler Durden

By Mark Perry of the Foundation for Economic Education

Following Minimum Wage Increases, Unemployment Spikes among Black Male Teensas

Perhaps one of the more interesting data points from last week’s Employment Report is displayed in the graph above, which shows that the jobless rate for black male teens (aged 16-19 years) increased to 40.1% in June from 28.1% in May. Except for a slightly higher increase of 12.2 percentage points during the aftermath of the Great Recession, the 12 percentage point increase in June was the highest monthly increase in history going back to 1972 when the BLS starting keeping records for this series. One possible explanation for this spike would be the “midyear burst of minimum-wage increases on July 1” outlined in a recent WSJ article:

On July 1, 14 U.S. cities, states and counties, plus the District of Columbia, will raise their minimum wage in a mid-year burst that reflects the legislative momentum to boost pay floors across the country while federal legislation stalls. In total, the minimum wage will rise in 15 places: two states – Maryland and Oregon, plus Washington, D.C., Los Angeles County, Calif., and 11 cities. That includes Chicago, eight cities in California and two in Kentucky, according to a new analysis by the right-leaning Employment Policies Institute.

As we learned from Milton Friedman many years ago:

The minimum wage law is most properly described as a law saying that employers must discriminate against people who have low skills. That’s what the law says. The law says that here’s a man who has a skill that would justify a wage of $5 or $6 per hour (adjusted for today), but you may not employ him, it’s illegal, because if you employ him you must pay him $7.25 per hour. So what’s the result? To employ him at $7.25 per hour is to engage in charity. There’s nothing wrong with charity. But most employers are not in the position to engage in that kind of charity. Thus, the consequences of minimum wage laws have been almost wholly bad. We have increased unemployment and increased poverty.

Moreover, the effects have been concentrated on the groups that the do-gooders would most like to help. The people who have been hurt most by the minimum wage laws are the blacks. I have often said that the most anti-black law on the books of this land is the minimum wage law.

MP: As I commented when I posted the minimum wage chart today on Twitter: “Will a $15 an hour minimum wage make it easier or harder for this group to find a job? Progressives, please discuss.”

…read more

Source: The Chart That Barack Obama Does Not Want Youung, Black Males To See

    

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Posted July 11th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Lessons From The Worst Banking Crisis In History

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Tim Price via SovereignMan.com,

It’s ironic that some of the most honest words to come out of a politician’s mouth were, “When it becomes serious you have to lie.”

That was a quote from Jean-Claude Juncker, former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and President of the European Commission (the EU’s executive branch) in 2011 when asked about Greece’s financial crisis.

Greece was on the ropes and the entire system about to collapse, so, of course they lied. Then they lied about lying.

This raises a very reliable rule of thumb to keep in mind during (and before) a banking crisis: don’t trust anyone in the establishment, especially a politician.

It’s good advice these days. Europe’s banks and its governments are caught like Macbeth’s “two spent swimmers that do cling together / And choke their art.”

Or perhaps a less elegant comparison– two drunken sailors holding each other up.

As usual there’s quite a bit of deflection to steer people away from looking too deeply at bank balance sheets, and high sounding language that everything is just fine.

A review of a historical banking crisis would be highly instructive. So let’s go back to one of the absolute worst in history– the US banking crisis of 1982.

It was so severe, in fact, that as Nassim Taleb writes in The Black Swan,

“In the summer of 1982, large American banks lost close to all their past earnings (cumulatively), about everything they ever made in the history of American banking – everything.”

Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute and author of ‘The Holy Grail of Macro-economics: lessons from Japan’s Great Recession,’ recounts the crisis with extraordinary candor.

Koo was a syndicated loan desk officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York… so he was truly at the epicenter.

Late on a Friday afternoon in August 1982, his job, along with those of his colleagues, was to try and convince the rest of the world that the US banking system was solvent (even though it was clearly NOT).

The following is taken verbatim from his presentation:

“That was about the worst possible banking crisis in modern US history. Our conclusion was that seven out of eight money centre banks were actually underwater…

“It was so bad because everyone down from Mexico to the southern tip of Chile went bankrupt…

“Paul Volcker, the chairman of the Fed, called central banks and ministries of finance all around the world on that critical Friday in August 1982…

“The Bank of Japan Governor of the time was particularly difficult to locate. A Bank of Japan official who took the call from Volcker recorded Volcker’s exact words for posterity.

“The Fed chairman stated, ‘You better give me Governor Maekawa right away. If you don’t give me Governor Maekawa there might not be any US banks left on Monday.’

“What we at the New York Fed had to do was arrange for all the foreign banks to keep credit lines open to the American banks, knowing fully well that all these American banks were actually bankrupt.

“And …read more

Source: Lessons From The Worst Banking Crisis In History

    

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Posted July 11th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Japanado Sends Stocks To Record Highs Despite Crude Crumble

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By Tyler Durden

Record high stocks, record low yields, 2016 low earnings expectations, and sixth straight month of labor market conditions collapse…

This is now the second longest bull market in US history…

Nasdaq regained 5,000 briefly… as 2016 EPS expectations near the year's lows…

Nasdaq is now up over 2% from Brexit…

Today's excitment was all over in futures land before the US open thanks to a promise of a cajillion yen of fiscal stimulus from Japan…

The S&P 500 took out its 2015 all-time record highs at 2134.72…but VIX also rose on the day…

Notably Dow Futures leaked over 60 points from their highs after Europe closed…

Post-Brexit, gold and bonds remain the biggest winners, stocks just green, and crude crashing…

The last time stocks were this high, 10Y yields were 105bps higher!!!

And bonds, gold, and silver have soared since May 20th 2015…

Oil tumbled again today to near 3-month lows and breaking below key technical support (100- and 200-day averages)…

And stocks continues to diverge…

Notably the correlation between high yield credit and oil prices has turned notably negative… which has not ended well the last 5 times it happened…

h/t @JesseFedler

The USD Index rose today as JPY weakness (huge move on Abe stimulus mockery) offset GBP strength (May as PM)…

This was USDJPY's biggest day since QQE2 was unleashed…bear in mind that USDJPY is stil down 5 handles from pre-Brexit excitement…

as Nikkei 225 has rallied over 1000 points post-payrolls…

Treasury yields rose notably today (5bps at the short-end and long-end, 8bps in the belly)… 10Y yields had their biggest percentage gain since December today…

Copper managed to hold gains after last night's China inflation data, silver outperformed gold but crude crumbled off an early bounce…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Japanado Sends Stocks To Record Highs Despite Crude Crumble

    

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Posted July 11th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Multiple People Shot, Including One Police Officer, At Berrien Conty Courthouse In Michigan

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By Tyler Durden

Emergency crews are responding to an active shooting at the Berrien County Courthouse in St. Joseph according to WNDU. It happened around 2:20 p.m. Monday afternoon. According to PFZ, at least 4 people have been injured following the shooting, among them at least one police officer, with casualties also being reported.

As of 2:45 p.m., Berrien County police dispatch has only confirmed a heavy police presence at the courthouse. Our reporting partners at WSJM have confirmed that shots were fired and that the courthouse has been evacuated.

A viewer called NewsCenter 16 to say that her friend works in the courthouse and that a shooting did occur.

We have a crew on the way to the scene and will post updates as they become available.

There’s someone shooting at the third floor of the Berrien County Courthouse in St. Joseph, where I courier. I am safe and unharmed.

— Zarya Stark (@IchBinErica) July 11, 2016

BREAKING: Police officer one of four people shot outside the Berrien County Courthouse in St. Joseph. pic.twitter.com/XeIwSONN12

— Kate Tillotson (@KateWWMT) July 11, 2016

#BREAKING: Officer injured after shots fired at Berrien County Courthouse – @DaveBondyTV –https://t.co/WVihA0tPUl pic.twitter.com/UV8gk0dNaO

— URGENT NEWS (@UrgentNews911) July 11, 2016

…read more

Source: Multiple People Shot, Including One Police Officer, At Berrien Conty Courthouse In Michigan

    

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Posted July 11th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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