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By BullionStar

One of the most notable developments accompanying the gold price rally of 2016 has been the very large additions to the gold bar holdings of the major physically backed gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This is especially true of the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker GLD).

The gold bar holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust peaked at 1353 tonnes on 7 December 2012 before experiencing a precipitous fall in 2013, and additional and continued shrinkage throughout 2014 and 2015. On 17 December 2015, the gold holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust hit a multi-year low of 630 tonnes, a holdings level that had not been seen since September 2008.

SPDR Gold Trust – 5 year chart of gold holdings and gold price. Black line – gold holdings in tonnes. Source: http://www.goldchartsrus.com

By 31 December 2015, GLD 'only' held 642 tonnes of gold bars. See above chart. Then as the New Year kicked off in January 2016, something dramatic happened. The SPDR Gold Trust began expanding its gold holdings again, and noticeably so. By 31 March 2016, the Trust held 819 tonnes of gold bars, and by 30 June 2016, it held 950 tonnes of gold bars. The latest figure at time of writing is 981 tonnes of gold bars as of 8 July 2016. (Source: GLD Gold holdings spreadsheet).

This is a year-to-date net change of 338.89 extra tonnes of gold bars being held within the SPDR Gold Trust. See chart below. That's a 52.8% increase compared to the quantity of gold bars the Trust held at the end of 2015, and a phenomenal amount of gold by any means, since it's over 10% of annual new mine supply, and also a larger quantity of gold than all but the world's largest central banks hold in their official gold reserves. Where is all of this gold being sourced from? That is the billion dollar question. Some is obviously being imported from Swiss refineries, but perhaps not all of it.

In January 2016, 26.8 tonnes of gold bars were added to the SPDR Gold Trust, while a massive 108 tonnes of gold bars were added in February 2016. The first quarter was rounded off with an additional 42 tonnes of gold bars added in March, bringing the Q1 additions held by GLD's gold custodian HSBC London to 176.91 tonnes of gold bars. Noticeably, some large 1-day increases in GLD's gold bar holdings occurred on 1 February (over 12 tonnes), 11 February (over 14 tonnes), 19 and 22 February (over 19 tonnes each day), and 29th February (nearly 15 tonnes), and also on 17 and 18 March (11.9 tonnes of gold bars added each day).

The second quarter saw a 15 tonne shrinkage of GLD's gold holdings in April, but a very large 64.5 …read more

Source: SPDR Gold Trust gold bars at the Bank of England

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The move to punish the UK picks up steam even though such actions will damage the EU far more than the UK. Belgium is the latest country bound and determined to punish the UK.

Please consider EU will not help UK out of ‘black hole’, Belgian premier warns.

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has opened a political “black hole” in Westminster and Europe’s leaders will not bend to help it out, Belgium’s prime minister has warned.

Charles Michel’s caustic views on the unreal “dreams” of Brexiters, outlined in an hour-long interview with the Financial Times, speak to the difficulties Britain faces in reaching an exit trade deal that satisfies all 27 EU leaders and their parliaments.

Before the referendum, the liberal leader doggedly resisted giving Britain a special deal on its EU membership terms. He is now showing similar resolve over any Brexit deal, pushing the UK to start the divorce promptly and telling it to expect no big concessions on migration or market access.

“The truth is it’s a very negative situation for the UK, there is no doubt,” he said.

The Truth

The truth is Brexit is very bad for the EU, and punishing the UK will make matters worse, possibly even starting a global trade war.

Facts of the Matter

• “Italian Gov’t Collapse More Than Just a Possibility”
• The EU Cannot Survive as a Prison
• Spain’s Social Security Program Will Go Bust in 2018
• Austria’s Constitutional Court Orders Rerun of Presidential Election.
• Four Countries Blame Jean-Claude Juncker for Brexit, Two Seek His Ouster

Risk of Global Trade Collapse

Please consider “No Cherry Picking” Says Merkel; Risk of Global Trade Collapse says Mish

Bluff or Stupidity?

Germany exports €50,963,643 to the UK than it takes back in imports.

Instance the UK must abide by migration rules when that's the reason the UK left the EU is blatant stupidity given balance of trade numbers

— Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 10, 2016

Le Pen stated “This Is the Beginning of the End of the European Union“.

For details please see Hollande Lectures US About Trump.

The final irony in this mess is that it’s the EU on the verge of falling into an economic black hole, and punishing the UK is one sure way to make that happen.

…read more

Source: Brexit Ironies Mount: Belgian Premier Warns EU Won’t Help UK Out Of "Black Hole"

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On Monday, the company priced its IPO at 3,300 yen apiece, raising 115 billion yen ($1.14 billion). …read more

Source: This app is set to launch the year’s biggest tech debut

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By Tyler Durden

With markets and monetary policy already reduced to Seussian fantasy, and the average insta-American incapable of comprehending anything but snapchat-‘memes’, we thought the following summed up the state of US politics perfectly…

Source: The Burning Platform

…read more

Source: "I Do Not Like This Uncle Sam…"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

In my view, this new bout of turmoil in financial markets is the prelude to the final demise of government currency.

If I’m right, a long-expected collapse in the purchasing power, and of the very concept of fiat currency, will evolve from current events. The purpose of this article is to explain why monetary theory predicts a currency collapse.

The question at the heart of today’s market instability is the validity of fiat currency; that is to say, forms of money issued and sanctioned by individual governments, with no backing other than faith in those governments’ creditworthiness, and the enforcement of its use by law. The risks they impose on all of us will be evidenced one day by both the speed of the fall in each individual fiat money’s purchasing power, and inevitably by their comparison with gold’s more stable purchasing power. Essentially, an awareness of the dangers of unsound money will gradually become evident to every economic actor.

So far, or at least since the days when fiat money was freely exchangeable for gold, central banks have managed to enforce upon us their currencies as money, originally on the basis they were gold substitutes. That pretence was finally dropped in 1971. The purchasing power of fiat currencies has never been seriously challenged since, except in relatively few extreme cases, such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Not even the financial crisis eight years ago threatened a collapse in fiat currencies, when banks had to be rescued with unlimited extra quantities of money and credit.

The current crisis has commenced while there are determined efforts to stop the purchasing power of the major currencies from rising, even leading to the deployment of negative interest rates in this quest. None of the central banks’ policies appear to have worked. The increasing purchasing power of the yen, despite all attempts to lessen it, is the clearest example of the abject failure of a central bank to achieve its monetary objectives. The same can be said of the ECB and the euro, a currency even more synthetic than those it replaced. It is clear that the central banks are setting monetary policy more in hope than in a true appreciation of their own hopelessness.

They place an undue emphasis on empirical evidence. That’s why charts and statistics are so important to them and all their epigones. When you don’t understand and cannot explain something, you turn to the so-called evidence. And when very few people actually have a reasonable grasp of what money is about, you can rely on empirical evidence being unchallenged. For monetary policy, this tells us two things: central banks are clueless about monetary theory, and in the event of a second systemic crisis, they will be misguided by their experiences of the last one.

Today’s empirical evidence reflects the bail-out of the global banking system in 2008/09. Neo-classical monetarists were initially worried by the potential for price deflation in the wake of the banking system’s rescue, and so central bankers …read more

Source: The Prospects For Money

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The warmongers and gun manufacturers are cheering today as Shinzo Abe Wins Sweeping Victory in Japan Elections.

Shinzo Abe has won a sweeping victory in elections to Japan’s upper house, leaving him within reach of a parliamentary supermajority that would allow the government to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution.

With seven proportional representation seats left to declare on Sunday night, Mr Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic party and its allies had won 72 out of the 78 seats they need for a two-thirds majority.

Toru Takigishi, a 76-year-old chemistry professor in Tokyo and a long-time LDP supporter, said he voted for the Communist party for the first time. “I’m happy with the current constitution and I want peace to be maintained. At least there is a checking mechanism for constitutional change under the Communist party,” Mr Takigishi said.

Japan Election Boosts Shinzo Abe’s Bid to Revise Constitution

The Wall Street Journal reports Japan Election Boosts Shinzo Abe’s Bid to Revise Constitution

With most results in, Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner, Komeito, were on track to win nearly 70 of 121 seats that were up for grabs in the 242-seat upper house. A handful of seats remained undecided early Monday.

The coalition parties plus smaller opposition parties and unaffiliated lawmakers who favor constitutional revision were likely to control two-thirds of Parliament’s upper house after the election, projections by Japanese media showed. Revision requires two-thirds of both houses of Parliament, after which the changes must be approved by a majority of voters in a national referendum. The coalition already controls two-thirds of the lower house, which wasn’t up for election, meaning Mr. Abe has the votes to start the revision process.

Any move to change the constitution is likely to spark a divisive battle. Last year, Mr. Abe’s government enacted a bill allowing Japanese troops to fight overseas along with the country’s allies, following a controversial reinterpretation of one article of the constitution.

The move prompted months of protests, some attracting tens of thousands of people. Though the security bill was passed by both houses of Parliament, experts testified that it was unconstitutional.

With the election over, Mr. Abe will likely focus on passing the stimulus package, a task that has gained urgency since the U.K.’s decision last month to leave the European Union cast further uncertainty over the global economy.

Mr. Abe hasn’t disclosed any details, but the stimulus program is expected to be a multiyear effort to upgrade the nation’s transport infrastructure, expand child care and nursing-care services and create scholarships for students.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to expand its efforts to stoke growth and inflation when its policy board meets July 28-29. Its most likely options are increasing the size of its unprecedented asset-purchase program and pushing a key interest rate on bank reserves further into negative territory.

For further discussion of warmongering possibilities, please see Japan’s Abe Angling for War with …read more

Source: Warmongers Delight: Abe Hits Super-Majority With Sweeping Victory In Japan Election

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By Tyler Durden

With both stocks and US Treasury prices at all time highs the market is sensing that something has to give, and that something may just be more QE, which likely explains the move higher in gold to coincide with both risk and risk-haven assets. As of moments ago, gold rose above $1,370, and was back to levels not seen since 2014. Curiously, the move higher is taking place after Friday’s “stellar” jobs report, suggesting that someone does not believe the seasonally-adjusted numbers goalseeked by the BLS.

And while we reported last week that one way investors are rushing into the anti-QE safety of gold is by buying paper gold derivatves such as ETFs, which rose above 2,000 tons for the first time since 2013, many others have bypassed paper claims on gold such as GLD entirely, and are rushing into physical.

Case in point, Japanese savers who, fearing domestic confiscation, have been accumulating gold in Switzerland. It’s not just the Japanese: as Nick Laird shows, the past week saw the second largest ever increase in physical gold holdings, as the total published holdings of physical funds rose by 2.5 million ounces to 85.8 million, second only to the 4 million ounce increase in early 2009.

Finally, with even the sellside starting to turn, there may be more upside as the slow money starts to move in. In a whimsical note released on Friday, Bank of America’s metals team writes “Gold: always believe in your soul. Glad you are bound to return. You’re indestructible.”

Yes, we were surprised too, but it’s true.

Strange golden “poetry” aside, this is why BofA thinks gold is going to $1,500 and silver’s next stop is an “overshoot” to $30.

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Many of the underlying issues affecting the global economy are structural, with Brexit merely a symptom of the problems many countries are facing. To that point, we called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next year’s gold price forecast from $1,325/oz to $1,475/oz. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

Gold heading for $1,500/oz

After a weak US labour market report earlier in June, the risk of Brexit added to the gold price rally ahead of the vote (Chart 11) and after. In our view, Brexit has affected gold through various transmission channels. On the fixed income side, US Treasuries and German bunds have benefited from a flight to quality; the current uncertainty also suggests that an accelerated rate hiking cycle is unlikely, so interest rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset …read more

Source: "The World Is Walking From Crisis To Crisis" – Why BofA Sees $1,500 Gold And $30 Silver

    

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By Tyler Durden

From Russell Napier of ERI-C

Now only one question matters for global investors — Wo ist der Hubschrauber? (Where is the helicopter?).

The decline of European commercial bank share-prices before Brexit made it clear that a monetary reflation of Europe was failing. The collapse in these same share-prices post-Brexit means that even the politicians now realise that the ECB acting alone cannot stabilize the European economy. Indeed, given the evident political strains in the European Union, saving the economy from recession is now key to saving the European political union project itself.

So, will Mrs Merkel abolish fiscal austerity across Europe and permit each of the states of the European political union expand their debt mountains at the same time that the ECB is buying that debt? Are the keys to der Hubschrauber to be handed over? To save the European political union Germany must now confront its greatest fear and enfranchise the political union’s central bank to conduct outright monetary financing of all its constituent governments.

Investors need to remain very cautious indeed as it is in no way clear that Mrs Merkel will hand over the keys to der Hubschruaber. Should she do so, however, major changes in investment allocation are necessary as helicopter money will be raining from the skies in Japan, the Eurozone, the UK and even in the USA if President Clinton also wins the House and the Senate. This form of reflation will likely work and in due course work too much. Few things are binary in investment, but this huge decision to be taken in Berlin is the biggest binary event for investors this analyst has yet come across. The repercussions will reverberate throughout this century.

This analyst would like to present you with a firm forecast as to the possibility of ‘helicopter money’ coming to the European political union. However, it is too close to call. Even if that assertion is correct, this is truly dire news for financial markets.

Investors seem to have no doubt that Mrs Merkel will indeed endorse an end to fiscal austerity in the Eurozone and, in the process, further breach the constitution of the ECB and ignore the ghost of Herr Haverstein (Germany’s Weimar/hyperinflation central banker). These are truly existential decisions for any Chancellor of Germany to make and it is too dangerous to invest clients’ hard-earned savings on a bet that The Chancellor will sacrifice everything for the political union project.

Time is ticking away and a decision will have to be made within weeks if a European recession, which will raise severe questions about the survivability of the European political union, is to be averted. We will know soon enough just how large the ghost of Herr Haverstein still looms in Germany, as a failure to endorse helicopter money within a few weeks most likely means Germany is ultimately backing away from the European political union project. This is amongst the most important political decisions of the 21st century and one full of pain for global equity …read more

Source: Russell Napier Reveals The "Only Question That Matters For Global Investors"

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By Tyler Durden

Presented with no comment…

Source: Tonwhall.com

…read more

Source: The "Hillary Defense"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

French president Francois Hollande endorsed Hillary Clinton while warning “U.S. Election Risks Turning Into Brexit Vote II”.

French President Francois Hollande, who last month endorsed Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential race, said the November ballot threatens to play out along similar lines to the U.K.’s European Union referendum.

Just as U.K. voters rejected calls from political leaders and institutions to stay in the EU, a similarly anti-establishment sentiment may be brewing in the U.S., potentially damaging relations with Europe, Hollande said.

“The arguments in the Brexit vote and in the American presidential campaign are about the same,” Hollande told reporters Saturday at a NATO summit in Warsaw. “In a friendly way, may I also give some advice to the American people to make the right choice when the moment comes.”

Quite a Hoot

Francois Hollande giving advice is quite a hoot.

On June 2, 2016 Bloomberg reported:

“About 15 percent of voters have confidence in Hollande’s leadership, down from 33 percent in December and 58 percent when he took office in May 2012, according to the survey.

Only 33 percent of respondents who identify as left-leaning say they have confidence in the president, down 8 points in a month.”

Marine Le Pen Surges in Polls

On June 3, Breitbart reported Marine Le Pen Surges in Polls.

It is less than a year until the French public will vote on the highest office in the country, and new polls suggest that the current president François Hollande could be in serious trouble.

A survey published by Le Monde on Thursday shows the French president polling at 14 per cent while likely Republican candidate and former president Nicolas Sarkozy scored 21 per cent. The clear winner of the poll was anti-mass migration Front National party leader Marine Le Pen who was favoured by 28 per cent of those surveyed.

The biggest loser in the poll is Mr. Hollande whose disapproval rating rose among the group surveyed. The percentage of those totally dissatisfied with the Socialist leader have gone from 43 per cent in March to 53 per cent. The level of satisfaction with Mr. Hollande, on a scale of 1 to 10, now rests at 2.1.

If the polling numbers remain steady going into 2017, the FN leader is guaranteed a place in the second round of the French presidential elections.

The French presidential election system is much like the Austrian system. The Austrian presidential election this year saw anti-mass migration Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) candidate Norbert Hofer win 36.4 per cent of the vote in the first round, but lose by a mere 31,000 votes in the second round to former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen.

French Election Polls

It’s amusing that someone whose overall popularity is 14% would be giving advice to anyone.

“Beginning of the End of the EU”

On March 25, Euractive reported Following Cameron, Marine Le Pen Pledges EU Exit Referendum.

On June 28, Time magazine posted this headline: …read more

Source: Irony Of The Day: Hollande Lectures US About Trump; Two-Way Frexit?

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