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By globalintelhub

Brexit doesn’t happen so often – but it does happen. Many will remember the days when Maltese Lira, Cyprus Pound, and others joined the fledging Euro. During that time it was possible to have a 400% return in your account in 1 day due to planned exchange rates on the conversion day. Now probably a flood of copy cat referendums will sweep the EU, certainly by those already in the works in breakaway regions. As we’ve been saying for years, the Euro finally will be shattered into regional Euros, and mixed with a return to national currencies such as the French Franc, Spanish Peseta, Italian Lira, and so on. Probably, the Euro will always exist as accounting currency, and probably will always be accepted by merchants for payment in Europe. In many countries such as Russia for example, a 3 currency system already exists. Countries that don’t have strong domestic currencies often use foreign currencies as a benchmark, or a place to keep their savings in times of currency crisis. In most cases, this is primarily the US Dollar and secondly the Euro. Finally – to please all these conspiracy nuts; they are right – there is a plan to create a one world currency – but it’s not SDRs and it’s not the Amero, it’s the US Dollar. Last night, as results came in indicating a “Brexit” – the GBP collapsed. Forex involves a pair trading system – it’s not possible to just ‘sell’ the Great British Pound (GBP) – it must be ‘bought’ against another currency. That means, while the GBP was collapsing – other currencies were rising. So this event was net positive for most other currencies, most notably the US Dollar. See the below hourly chart of GBP/USD:

What this means is the GBP (Great British Pound) went down and the US Dollar (USD) went up. The USD is a net benefactor of many foreign market volatilities – not only in FX. Probably you’ve heard about ‘flight to safety’ – well since the CIA killed off the safety of this little canton north of Italy we call today “Switzerland” – the US is effectively the only ‘safe haven’ left. By eliminating offshore locations on a number of levels, it sucks money back into the USD which is a natural support of the USD – both domestically and USD accounts held overseas. The US has effectively an unsaid policy supporting the USD through foreign policy, including but not limited to military intervention, gunboat diplomacy, and a number of other techniques.

Hats off to all GBP FX providers that maintained superb trading conditions in a difficult volatile environment. Brexit trade was an excellent ‘stress test’ of what happens to when such existential events take place. FX markets functioned, and functioned well.

Day traders had many opportunities to profit, from an obvious one way trade down. Also this is …read more

Source: Brexit GBP collapse a great FX example

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By Tyler Durden

With precious metals soaring on safe haven buying…

We thought John Rubino's thoughts (via DollarCollapse.com) were particularly prescient…

Gold analyst Michael Ballanger just posted an article noting how much things have changed — perhaps for the better — in the gold market. Here’s an excerpt:

Commercial Traders Have Just Gone Over the Top

(24hGold) – With Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, the ridiculous has just metastasized into the sublime as the Commercial Cretins have just gone “over the top” and added another 5.4M “ounces” to their synthetic gold short position. At 298,077 contracts declared short, they are now carrying the largest short position in Crimex history. The scary part is that these figures don’t include the big rise in open interest yesterday and you just KNOW that it ballooned out due to more Cartel shorting.

While these numbers are synonymous with prior tops like in 2008 and 2011, the difference today lies in two realities: 1) The Shanghai Gold Exchange is keeping the Crimex and LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) thieves at bay through some voracious arbitrage, and 2) Raw demand from the Far East and from Western investment pools are keeping inventories tight. If this was back in 2011-2015, the market would be limit down on Monday as the criminals have their way with us. However, this is a NEW bull market and dips are to be bought while holding onto your core position for dear life as I have been trying to do with my GDXJ (Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF) position. I can’t tell you how many times I have had to lock myself in the wine cellar during trading hours because the temptation to “SELL!” was so overwhelming.

The bullion banksters and their well-armed trading desks have now arrived into somewhat of a “pickle” in that the movie reel that they thought would play out with the bad guys winning and gold following through to the downside on what should have been another Freaky Friday where gold and silver get clobbered. Since it DIDN’T, they now have to await selling from the Asian markets in order to give them the slightest chance of a downside flush this coming week.

What IS a certainty is that the PMs are trading in a totally bizarre fashion, and anyone who fails to pay attention to Commercials are indeed paying no attention to “that man behind the curtain” who most certainly is pulling levers and spinning dials frantically in order to secure the desired effect while being short nearly 30 Moz of phony, synthetic gold that closed within a whisker of a new closing high for the move. There must be carloads of Pepto and adult diapers being handed out to the Cretins as the wait in agony for the Sunday night opening.

Let’s expand on that “voracious arbitrage” idea: The Shanghai exchange is a physical market, where buyers go to get actual gold and silver. So prices there are set by sellers with metal to move and …read more

Source: A New Balance Of Power In The Gold Market

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By Tyler Durden

Earlier today we said that it was inevitable that the Fed would join the world’s other central bankers in providing backstops to global markets, the only question is whether it would take place before or after the open. We now have the answer. Before.

The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union. The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the U.S. economy.

Because free, impartial, efficient, and unmanipulated markets. Also we can finally stop holding our breath on those two Fed rate hikes which the FOMC anticipates in 2016.

…read more

Source: Here Comes Yellen: Fed Is "Monitoring" Financial Markets, Ready To Provide Liquidity With Swap Lines

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

So ride your bubble of choice up–stocks, bonds, housing, bat guano, take your pick–but it's best to keep your thumb on the sell button.

One person's bubble is another person's “fair market value.” What is clearly an outrageously overvalued asset perched at nosebleed levels of central-bank fueled speculative euphoria is to the owner an asset at “fair market value.”

But beneath the euphoric confidence that valuations can only drift higher forever and ever is the latent fear that something could stick a pin in “my bubble”— that is, whatever bubblicious asset we happen to own and treasure as a source of our financial wealth could be popped, destroying not just our financial bubble but our psychological bubble of faith in permanent manias.

Consider housing prices, which are clearly in an echo-bubble of the Great Housing Bubble of 2000-2007. (Chart courtesy of Market Daily Briefing.)

The psychological underpinning of all bubbles and echo bubbles is on display here. In the first bubble, those benefiting from the stupendous price increases are not just euphoric at the surge in unearned wealth–they believe the hype with all their hearts and minds that the bubble is not a bubble at all, it's all just “fair market value” at work.

In other words, the massive increase in unearned personal wealth is not just temporary good fortune–it is permanent, rational and deserved.

Alas, all bubbles, no matter how euphoric or long-lasting, eventually pop. All the certainties that seemed so obviously true and timeless to the believers melt into air, and their touching faith that the bubble valuations were permanent, rational and deserved dissipates in a wrenchingly painful reconciliation with reality.

The agonized cries of those watching their bubble-wealth vanish do not fall on deaf ears. The same central bankers that inflated the bubble with super-low interest rates suddenly see their much-loved wealth effect (i.e. the bubble-generated psychological sense of wealth that emboldens people to borrow and spend money they shouldn't borrow and spend) imploding before their eyes.

In the panicky haste of blind expediency, central bankers drop interest rates to zero and unleash unlimited liquidity to save the bubbles they inflated. Instead of flushing the system of bad debt and speculative leverage and allowing the market to reprice impaired assets, central bankers push the perverse incentives that inflated the bubble to new highs.

Should lowering interest rates to zero fail to reflate the bubble, central bankers then start buying assets hand over fist, creating trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros out of thin air to boost asset prices with direct and indirect purchases.

The relief of those saved from financial destruction by the heroic efforts of central bankers is palpable. Rather than retrace to pre-bubble levels, valuations are caught in mid-air and pushed higher by central bank liquidity and asset purchases.

But the naive faith of asset owners cannot be restored to its pre-bubble virginal state. The nagging realization that all bubbles are temporary and irrational, and that bubblicious wealth is unearned and undeserved, lingers in the …read more

Source: "Please Don’t Pop My Bubble!"

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Investors around the world went into crisis mode as British voters chose to leave the European Union in a stunning decision with far-reaching implications. …read more

Source: U.K. ‘earthquake’ crushes global markets

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Investors around the world went into crisis mode as British voters chose to leave the European Union in a stunning decision with far-reaching implications. …read more

Source: U.K. ‘earthquake’ crushes global markets

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By Tyler Durden

Sterling drops, banking stocks tumble and peripheral EGB and credit spreads widen after the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU; verbal and direct intervention by central banks help currencies off earlier lows. U.K. PM David Cameron has resigned, announcing there needs to be a new prime minister in place by October.

MARKET MOVES: ALL ABOUT FX

• GBP/USD down ~8%, paring earlier slide of as much as 11%; liquidity returns as uncertainty dissipates with volumes around 50 times a “normal” session for the Asia time zone, traders in Europe say
• One-week implied volatility in GBP/USD up 2 vols; rose 21 vols to fresh record of 53.16% earlier
• USD/JPY briefly drops below 100 to a 2 1/2-yr low; CHF more than halves gains vs EUR after SNB intervened to stabilize the currency
• ZAR, PLN, MXN slide around 5%, leading declines among EM currencies
• WTI crude falls ~4% to $48.10
• FTSE 100 down 6%, Euro Stoxx 600 slumps 8.1%
• Yields on U.K. 10Y gilts drop 30bps to 1.07%
• Banking stocks RBS, Lloyds, Barclays shares fall more than 29%

WHAT’S THE LATEST?

• U.K. PM Cameron says will continue in role for three months, says the next PM will decide when to trigger article 50
• Central banks across the world pledge to take action as needed to avert any breakdown in financial-market liquidity
  • Governor Carney says BOE well-prepared for Brexit, ready provide GBP250b of extra funds; adds central bank won’t hesitate to take additional measures
  • SNB says it “intervened in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the situation and will remain active in that market”
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda and Japan FinMin Taro Aso said central banks of six major developed nations have currency-swap lines at the ready to provide liquidity
• Central banks expected to ensure stability on Brexit impact, with BOJ expected to act more rapidly than others, UBS economist John Wraith says
• As first step, possibly there will be some verbal communication in form of “whatever it takes” to reassure the markets; then some reassessment will be required, UniCredit strategist Vasileios Gkionakis says
• BOJ likely to step in on a dip in USD/JPY below 100
• S&P says U.K. will be downgraded by at least one notch; says votes in Scotland and Northern Ireland ‘raise many questions’
• U.K.’s credit ratings would be quickly reviewed, “likely with a negative bias,” Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia- Pacific Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings said before the vote result
• EU President Donald Tusk says EU determined to keep unity as 27-member bloc
• Brexit means U.K. can’t retain advantages of being in EU, French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll says on France2 TV
• There must be a referendum now in France, National Front party says in posting on Twitter, while Dutch Freedom Party Leader Wilders says “Time for Dutch referendum”
• JPMorgan executives say may need to change location of some roles, will maintain large presence in U.K.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

• Govt paper on the process of withdrawing from the EU shows U.K. and union members will have 2 years to negotiate initially; period can be extended if all remaining 27 members agree
• “The EU procedures for leaving the European Union are clearly spelled out and will …read more

  Source: Brexit: All The Latest News, What Happens Next And How To Trade It

      

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for latest details. …read more

Source: Brexit shock vote: What you need to know

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By Tyler Durden

With knife-catching “value” investors proclaiming yesterday that any dip today would be an opportunity, it appears once again that faced with the reality of Brexit blowback, no one (not even the central banks) are buying the f##king dip). As Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore exclaims “Don't be a hero,” to those value-investors, warning that “most of the market is still in denial.”

This vote for Brexit is a momentous event in history. The ramifications will take time to play out. Don’t try to be clever today. For market participants, self-preservation is paramount.

There will be plenty of opportunities for traders to try to profit from this shift (if they are so inclined) in the weeks ahead. But the risk-reward ratio in the short-term will remain terrible.

Part of the reason this is such a negative event for global markets is that there is so much uncertainty how it plays out.

Most of the market is still in denial. Many people are highlighting that the referendum has no legal effect and may not be ratified still. Even if that was the case, such a public rejection of democracy would hardly be a positive.

Central-bank action in the coming days is likely — both in currency markets and through extraordinary monetary policy.

The reason why bear markets cause such financial pain isn’t just through the wealth-destruction effect. Bears themselves can also lose money as volatility remains so high and liquidity so low that relief rallies can be powerful and force shorts to be closed at extreme levels.

The one certainty that everyone should now cling to is that there is no certainty. Do the rest of the EU become tighter or splinter further in the coming months? This is the first major step against greater integration since the project began.

What happens to banks based in the UK? What happens to sovereign debt deposited at the ECB? What happens to company plans and EU employees? What happens to funds who have sterling-denominated collateral?

An important warning: global equity markets closed higher the week of Lehman Brothers collapse -– the real move lower didn’t start for two weeks. Don’t get lulled into complacency in the weeks ahead; the consequences will take months to play out.

Keep cautious, nimble and flexible. The world economy and markets will eventually move on and adapt -– it just may take some time

…read more

Source: "Don’t Try To Be A Hero Today" Veteran Trader Warns "Self-Preservation Is Paramount"

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The pound is crashing and stocks are tanking after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. But what happens next and why does it matter? …read more

Source: Britain’s ‘Black Friday’ is here. Now what?

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