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Sometimes a lean is just a lean, and sometimes a lean leads to a kiss. A new deep-learning algorithm developed by MIT researchers can predict the difference. …read more

Source: New AI can predict when two people will kiss

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By Tyler Durden

With traders already on edge in illiquid markets ahead of the Breferendum, one potential risk to sentiment today was the long-awaited decision by Germany’s powerful constitutional court whether Mario Draghi’s OMT, or Outright Monetary Transactions, was constitutional. However, any lingering concerns were swept away when the Kardinals of Karlsruhe “reluctantly” ruled in favor of the one of the European Central Bank’s most important tools to fight financial crises, which however was caveated with six specific conditions.

Specifically, Germany’s highest court dismissed five suits seeking to stop the country from participating in a controversial bond-buying plan that underpinned European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s 2012 vow to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. While they voiced concerns, the German judges said they were bound by last year’s ruling on the Outright Monetary Transactions program by the European Court of Justice, which said it includes sufficient safeguards to prevent the bond purchases from being disproportionate, which would violate EU rules governing the ECB.

The ECB’s landmark bond-buying programme, launched at the height of the eurozone’s debt crisis in 2012 well ahead of the ECB’s subsequent launch of QE, despite having never been used is widely credited with bringing the currency area back from the brink of collapse.

In the final ruling issued on Tuesday, the Karlsruhe-based court said should the scope of OMT be limited and other conditions for purchases met, the scheme would “not currently impair the Bundestag’s overall budgetary responsibility” or “‘manifestly’ exceed the competences attributed to the European Central Bank”. As the FT adds, after four years of judicial battles, the decision now clears the last remaining stumbling block to the deployment of the policy, under which the central bank can buy bonds of distressed member states.

Previously, a group of more than 37,000 German academics, businessmen and politicians had objected to the scheme, arguing it violated German federal law through the illegal monetary financing of eurozone governments. But ahead of the German decision, the European Court of Justice ruled in June last year that OMT was in accordance with EU treaty law.

In line with that decision, the German court said should all six of the conditions laid out by the ECJ be met, OMT would not constitute an “ultra vires act” in breach of German federal law. These include making sure the volume of any bond buying is “limited from the outset”, “purchases are not announced” and the ECB only holds securities until maturity in “exceptional cases”.

The ruling was promptly criticized by some such as Clemens Fuest, president of the Munich-based Ifo Institute, who said “the judges have made a U-turn on their original ruling, and haven’t dared to to restrain the ECB’s bond buying further than the ECJ. It’s a pity, as it is obvious that the OMT program primarily follows the fiscal goal of retaining the access of highly-indebted states to credit.”

While OMT has never been called upon, a negative ruling would have been a blow to the ECB. The program gives it a tool …read more

Source: German Top Court "Reluctantly" Rejects Challenges To ECB’s OMT Program, Lists 6 Conditions

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George Soros says that a Brexit would unleash powerful speculative forces and could cause the pound to crash by more than 20%. …read more

Source: Brexit: George Soros warns of ‘Black Friday’

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George Soros says that a Brexit would unleash powerful speculative forces and could cause the pound to crash by more than 20%. …read more

Source: Brexit: Soros warns of ‘Black Friday’

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By Tyler Durden

Excerpted from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin blog,

Credit booms are powerfully reinforcing. New Credit provides additional purchasing power that spurs spending, economic output, corporate earnings/cash-flow and income growth. Monetary expansions, as well, fuel inflating asset prices, most notably in securities and real estate. In both the Financial Sphere and the Real Economy Sphere, Credit expansion and its myriad inflationary effects beget more self-reinforcing Credit.

Importantly, the upside of a Credit Cycle feeds off the commanding forces of cooperation and integration. The economic pie is expanding, and it becomes easily-recognized that working together offers more than zero-sum outcomes. In prolonged booms, a “virtuous cycle” appears almost a certain, natural outcome.

Yet the inevitable Credit cycle downturn ensures a vicious sequel. The bursting of the Bubble sees so many rewarding boom-time endeavors turn infeasible, unprofitable or unworkable. Hopes are dashed and dreams are crushed. Confidence, flowing over-abundantly throughout the boom, is suddenly in such short supply; faith wanes in policymaking, the markets, finance and in institutions more generally. Meanwhile, the unfolding bust illuminates the inequities and nonsense from the Bubble-period. Powerful forces then shift to tearing at the fabric of cooperation, integration and good faith that were so crucial throughout the boom period. Yesterday’s partner is today’s competitor.

Nowhere did this historic global Credit Bubble have greater integrative influence than in Europe. The euphoria of the victory of democracy and free-market Capitalism, along with technological advancement, financial innovation and developments in contemporary monetary management, emboldened Europe’s leaders to take the fateful plunge toward unprecedented integration, including a common currency.

To appreciate the complexities of the current market, economic and geopolitical backdrop, it’s helpful to return back to that fateful summer of 2012. European integration was under existential threat, though the seriousness of the situation was appreciated by few. A potentially momentous crisis of confidence had gathered powerful momentum. Fear of a European periphery debt crisis was being transmitted to a more general questioning of the solvency of the European banking system. And with Europe’s banks major operators in derivatives and throughout EM, European travails had begun reverberating throughout global markets.

Markets were increasingly questioning the viability of the euro currency – and such concerns invariably raised doubts as to the stability of global finance and, accordingly, economic prospects around the globe. As I chronicled the seriousness of developments back in 2012 (in the face of the media and pundits generally downplaying associated risks), my analysis appeared extremist and misguided. It was only later that inside accounts (notably from the Financial Times) confirmed the extent to which European policymakers had worked to avert acute financial and economic crisis.

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach made headlines this week with the comments “central banks are losing control.” I would suggest that central bankers actually lost control back in 2012. Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge was part of desperate measures to save the euro. Yet “whatever it takes” actually amounted to concerted central bank intervention to shield global markets and economies from the intensifying forces of the downside of a historic …read more

Source: "Whatever It Takes" Wasn’t Enough

    

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