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By Tyler Durden

Remember earlier this year when Mario Draghi said that the use of helicopter money was “a very interesting concept”? If not, rest assured that 18 members of the European Parliament do.

In an open letter to ECB president Mario Draghi, 18 members of the European Parliament's social democrat, leftwing and green groups recommended that the ECB look into the use of helicopter money and buying bonds from the European Investment Bank “as possible solutions to enhance economic development through direct spending into the real economy” the FT reports.

The leader of parliament's Green group, Philippe Lamberts, who is also one of the signatories, said that embracing helicopter money could make more sense than continuing with the ECB's current quantitative easing policy, because “inundating a sick financial system under a tsunami of liquidity equates to pushing on a string”, adding that buying EIB bonds would be a “robust alternative to kick-start the EU economy.”

Fabio De Masi, a German lawmaker from the Die Linke party is pushing the ECB to consider alternative policy options because QE combined with austerity “will only inflate asset bubbles as nobody invests despite ultra-low interest rates”, adding “we hence need to spend directly into the economy. Funding public investment via EIB would be my preferred option but helicopter money to low income households would definitely work.“

Indeed, if by “definitely work” De Masi meant would completely ruin what little bit is left of a functioning capital market and create the need for a vault the size of Scrooge McDuck's just to go purchase a loaf of bread, then yes, it would definitely work.

As far as potential legal obstacles, the MEPs have that all figured out as well.

From the FT

“You recently cited the potential legal obstacles to the deployment of helicopter money,” the MEPs say in the letter, which will be sent to Mr Draghi on Friday. “However, several eminent economists have already outlined how helicopter money could be distributed directly by the ECB, without going through government accounts and remaining in compliance with the EU Treaties.”

Not considering alternative policy options could leave the ECB “unprepared for a deterioration in economic conditions”, they say.

* * *

While the ECB and the rest of the central planners around the globe continue to fail spectacularly, and as the global economy continues to slide further and further into recession, we truly have no doubt that helicopter money will be coming, it's just a matter of when.

…read more

Source: It Begins: Members Of European Parliament Beg Draghi To Unleash Helicopter Money

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By Tyler Durden

Via KeepTalkingGreece.com,

The economic crisis and the strict austerity bound to the Greek bailout agreement kills. They kill Greeks. The Bank of Greece may not write it in such a melodramatic way on its Monetary Policy Report 2015-2016. However, the conclusions in the chapter about “<span title="??? ?????????? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??? ??????????? ?????? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? “?????????????? ???? ????? ??? ??????, ?????????? ????? ??? ?????????? ???? ????? ??? ?????????¨.

“>Reforms in health, economic crisis and impact on the health of population” are shocking and confirm what we have been hearing and reading around from relatives and friends in the last years: that the physical and mental health of Greeks has been deteriorating – partly due to economic insecurity, high unemployment, job insecurity, income decrease and constant exposure to stress. Partly also due to economic problems that have patients cut their treatment, partly due to the incredible cuts and shortages in the public health system.

The Report notes that “while it takes longer to reco<span title="?????? ????????????? ??? ?????????? ???????????? ?????? ??? ?? ?????????? ? ??????? ????????, ?? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????????? ??????.

“>rd the exact effect, trends show a deterioration of the health of Greeks in the years of loan agreements and austerity cuts.”

<span title="-?? ??????????? ?????????.

“>The BoG states:

– Suicides increased. “The risk of suicidal behavior <span title="-? ??????? ??????????? ???????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? 50%, ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ?????????.

“>increases when there are so-called primary risk factors (psychiatric-medical conditions), while the secondary factors (economic situation) and tertiary factors (age, gender) affects the risk of suicide, but only if primary risk factors pre-exist.

<span title="-?????? ????? ? ?????? ??? ????????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????????.

“><span title="-? ??????? ??????????? ???????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? 50%, ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ?????????.

“>– Infant mortality increased by nearly 50%, mainly due to increase of deaths of infants younger than one year, and the decline of births by 22,1%. Infant mortality increase: 2.65% in 2008 and 3.75% in 2014

<span title="??? ?????? ???????? ??? ??????? ????????????? ?????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ???? ???????? ??????? ??? ???????????? ??? ??????? ??? ???????? ??? ?????????? ?????? ???? ?? ???????????? ?? ????????? ??? ???? ????? ????????? ???????,.

“>– Increase of parts of population with mental illness, especially with depression. Increase: 3.,3% in 2008 to 6.8% in 2009, to 8.2% in 2011 and to 12.3% in 2013. In 2014, a 4.7% of the population above 15 years old declared it suffered form depression – that was 2.6% in 2009.

<span title="??? ?????? ???????? ??? ??????? ????????????? ?????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ???? …read more

Source: Austerity Kills! Bank Of Greece Admits "Greeks’ Health Deteriorating, Life Expectancy Shrinks"

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Numerous liberty movement analysts and proponents, myself included, have been warning about 2016 and the heightened potential for multiple terrorist events. I have written extensively on the history of ISIS, its proven ties to western governments and the disturbing program to forcefully inject millions of Islamic refugees into western nations in the name of dubious “multiculturalism,” allowing thousands of potential terrorists into our borders without obstruction. The reality is that terrorist attacks of small and medium scale are likely to become a monthly or weekly occurrence in the U.S. and the EU as we close in on the end of the year. Get used to the idea, because this problem is not going to go away while our own governments are aiding and even funding the very psychopaths that they are supposed to be protecting people from.

The recent attack at at gay club in Orlando by a self-proclaimed ISIS advocate, killing at least 49 people and wounding at least 53 more, was not at all a surprise. The scale of the attack should have been expected. No one in the U.S. should have assumed anything less given the number of dead during events in Europe.

What is frustrating, however, is that even though these attacks are highly predictable, very few Americans seem to be preparing in any meaningful way to counter them. In fact, I happened across a clip of establishment mouthpiece Bill O’ Reilly the other day arguing that there “is nothing that we can do” to stop such “lone wolf attacks”.

Ostensibly, this is an argument against the inevitable push for more gun control by Leftists in the wake of the Orlando massacre; but it also sets a dangerous and false precedent in the minds of the public. The fact of the matter is, the American people CAN stop the majority of terrorist attacks of this nature anytime they wish, without the aid of government or the implementation of unconstitutional gun control measures.

On the “progressive” side of the debate, of course, their only solution is to promote more gun control. They have a habit of exploiting every tragedy in order to defile the 2^nd Amendment and dance in the blood of mass shooting victims while furthering their agendas. They could not care less about the people who died, they only care about the political capital their deaths can buy.

In the wacky social justice camp, a “feel good” approach is being pursued. The argument among the cultural Marxists is that we must “turn hate into love,” whatever that means. But the basic strategy seems to be to ignore the glaring problems with Islamic fundamentalism (whether supported by government or not) and blame straight white people for their supposed “colonial privilege” instead.

All camps also seem to be overly focused on the sexual proclivities of the victims. The fact that a gay club was the target has LGBT organizations in a frenzied rush to …read more

Source: Orlando Victims Died Because They Were Unarmed – Not Because They Were Gay

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By Tyler Durden

As the “deflationary supernova” sweeps across the world, dragging bond yields to zero-and-beyond, even the almighty omniscent Federal Reserve has been forced to capitulate as the 'cheapness' of Treasury bonds lures the world's yield-hunters dragging it ever closer to the negative rate realities of Switzerland, Japan, and Germany. As rate-hike odds collapse, along with The Fed's credibility, so investors are increasingly betting on the chance that the inevitable negative interest rate washes ashore in a US money-market-crushing manner. While bets on 'NIRP' in 2016 have faded modestly, expectations for a 'below-zero' rate in 2017 (and implictly a stock market crash) have never been higher…

We suspect the words “it could never happen here” were uttered numerous times in Switzerland, Japanese, and German halls of officialdom over the past few years…

And with The Fed rapidly losing faith…

It appears not only are Treasury yields attractively 'cheap' (and “safe”) to the rest of the world's bonds…

But their relative moves to stocks also suggest something is amiss in equity land around the world…

And so, traders are increasingly positioning for negative rates in 2017… or, as we explain below, positioning cheaply for a stock market crash…

[the chart shows the cumulative open interest in par calls on eurodollar futures contracts that expire in 2016 and 2017 – basically options on short-term interest rates with a strike price of zero, such that they pay out if the Fed takes rates negative]

As we explained previously, when queried whether this is indeed a trade to bet on a market drop, Michael Green responded as follows:

[A reader] thought this might be an attempt by hedge funds to hedge out their exposure to rising interest rates very cheaply.

My initial idea was that it actually could be a bet on negative rates (if for some reason the Fed had to come back into the picture with QE4).

The bottom line:

“Deep OTM puts on the S&P are very expensive while par ED calls are relatively cheap.

In my view, we are that inflection point where the Fed is going to start to waffle…the bear market beckons and they will not be able to stick with their interest rate guidance. Of course, markets tend to frown on Central Bankers revealed as less than omniscient…“

Loking at the chart above, one wonders if The Fed tries QE in 2016 first, and/or increases its war on cash before negative rates are forced upon Americans.

…read more

Source: US Negative Interest Rate Bets Surge To Record Highs

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By Tyler Durden

In what should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody (as we previewed it here years ago), a new report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reveals that the FBI has compiled a massive facial recognition database without any oversight.

The FBI has accessed driver's license photo databases from 16 states, as well as passport and visa photo databases from the State Department which were used to compile a facial recognition database of millions of Americans and foreigners who have never been accused of a crime TechCrunch reports.

The FBI has access to a stunning 411.9 million images for use in its facial recognition program, and while that should be enough to disturb everyone, the fact that the FBI ignored the Privacy Act which requires government agencies to disclose how they harvest and use personal information such as ID photos should ratchet that anxiety up a bit more. Oh, and one more thing, it's working with 16 more states to provide even further database access as well.

According to the report, the DOJ has an oversight structure in place to help ensure privacy protections, but didn't approve the program until well over three years since the pilot began.

A

Speaking of privacy protections, the report found that the FBI has never done a true audit of the system to test its accuracy, so it doesn't even know if it's reliable or not.

“There appears to be no internal oversight on this system and that's remarkable. Today we found out that they have no idea if they're misusing it or not, they've [FBI] literally never done an audit.” said Alvaro Bedoya, executive director of the Center on Privacy and Technology at Georgetown Law. “They might not be storing these photos at Quantico but it has built, in effect, a nationwide biometric database using driver's license photos. It's breathtaking” Bedoya added.

“I have always maintained that Americans have a fundamental right to privacy, and I believe that in order to protect this right, our citizens must have a basic understanding the tools law enforcement uses to keep them safe. This GAO report raises some very serious concerns, and reveals that the FBI's use of facial recognition technology is far greater than had previously been understood. This is especially concerning because the report shows that the FBI hasn't done enough to audit its own use of facial recognition technology or that of other law enforcement agencies that partner with the FBI, nor has it taken adequate steps to ensure the technology's accuracy.” Senator Al Franken said in a statement on the report.

One final point that should keep everyone up at night (but won't) is the fact that the FBI has proposed that the database be exempt from the provisions in the Privacy Act completely. Said otherwise, the FBI wants to (continue to) collect data on people and never have to disclose how it's collected, and what it's used for. Then again by doing whatever it wants anyway, we're already at that point.

Land …read more

Source: GAO Report Reveals The FBI Has Built A Massive Facial Recognition Database

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By Michael Snyder

Over the past 12 months, stock market investors around the planet have lost trillions of dollars.  Since this time last June, stocks have crashed in 6 of the world’s 8 largest economies, and stocks in the other two are down as well.  The charts that you are about to see are absolutely stunning, and they are clear evidence that a new global financial crisis has already begun.  Of course it is true that we are still in the early chapters of this new crisis and that there is much, much more damage to be done, but let us not minimize the carnage that we have already witnessed.

In general, there have been three major waves of financial panic over the past 12 months.  Late last August we saw the biggest financial shaking since the financial crisis of 2008, then in January and February there was an even bigger shaking, and now a third “wave” has begun in June.  Not all areas around the globe have been affected equally by each wave, but without a doubt this new financial crisis is a global phenomenon.

The charts that I am about to show you come from Trading Economics.  It is an absolutely indispensable website that is packed full of useful data, and I encourage everyone to check it out.

Let’s talk about China first.  The Chinese economy is the second largest on the entire planet, and since this time last year Chinese stocks are down an astounding 40 percent…

As things have started to unravel in China, the Chinese have been selling off U.S. debt and U.S. stocks like crazy.  The following comes from Bloomberg…

For the past year, Chinese selling of Treasuries has vexed investors and served as a gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, burnt through 20 percent of its war chest since 2014, dumping about $250 billion of U.S. government debt and using the funds to support the yuan and stem capital outflows.

While China’s sales of Treasuries have slowed, its holdings of U.S. equities are now showing steep declines.

Unfortunately for China, their economy just continues to slow down, and George Soros is so alarmed by this and a potential “Brexit” that he has been selling off stocks and buying enormous amounts of gold in anticipation of an even bigger global downturn.

Japan has the third largest economy in the world, and over the past year Japanese stocks are down a total of 26 percent from the peak…

Personally, I have been extremely alarmed by what has been happening in Japan lately.  Japanese stocks were down almost 500 points last night, and overall the Nikkei is down a whopping 1,800 points so far in June.

Of course the Japanese economy as a whole is essentially a basket case at this point.  For a detailed analysis of this, please see my previous article entitled “Watch Japan – For All …read more

Source: The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

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By Tyler Durden

Back in February we noted that there were cracks starting to show in the world of P2P lending, and more specifically, with LendingClub's inability to assess credit risk of its borrowers that were causing the company to experience higher write-off rates than forecast.

From that February post, here is a chart that was used in a LendingClub presentation showing just how far off the company was in predicting write-off rates – it was evident then that their algorithms weren't working very well.

Here is what we said at the time:

What the slide above shows is that LendingClub is terrible at assessing credit risk. A write-off rate of 7-8% may not sound that bad (well, actually it does, but because P2P is relatively new, we don't really have a benchmark), it's double the low-end internal estimate.

That's bad. In other words, we said, the algorithms LendingClub uses to assess credit risk aren't working. Plain and simple.

And now courtesy of Reuters, we learn of a critical blind spot in the world of online lending. The risk to these online P2P companies such as LendingClub, is that as shown above, robust enough credit checks have not been developed to gauge true credit risk of borrowers. If said borrowers had what are referred to as “stacked” loans, meaning they have taken out one loan in order to pay for a prior loan, sometimes the algorithm won't be able to pick up all of those obligations in a timely enough fashion, and the borrowers credit risk is significantly understated.

As Reuters explains:

Many online lenders have failed to detect the “stacking” of multiple loans by borrowers who slip through their automated underwriting systems, lending company executives and investors told Reuters.

The practice is proliferating in the sector – led by LendingClub, OnDeck and Prosper Marketplace – because of many lenders’ hurried, algorithmic underwriting, use of “soft” credit inquiries, and patchy reporting of the resulting loans to credit bureaus, according to online lending and consumer credit experts.

Such loopholes, they said, can result in multiple lenders making loans to the same borrowers, often within a short period, without the full picture of their rising obligations and deteriorating ability to pay.

Stacking is “causing problems with the whole industry,” said Brian Biglin, chief risk officer of LoanDepot, a five-year-old mortgage lender that last year started making personal loans online.

However, even if lenders are aware of the issue, and run further credit checks, the reporting can still be sketchy enough where the risk still is not picked up properly.

In their haste to give applicants quick loan decisions – sometimes within 24 hours – some marketplace lenders do not conduct thorough credit checks, known as “hard inquiries,” according to industry executives.

Such checks create an updated log of credit and loan applications, and they can lower a borrower's credit score. Soft inquiries don’t require the borrower’s consent and don't usually show up on credit reports.

OnDeck said it runs only soft checks. LendingClub and Prosper said they initially …read more

Source: "Loan Stacking" – The Blind Spot That Could Blow Up The P2P Model

    

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