The mass shooting in Orlando has drawn a flood of financial support. Here’s a rundown of how you can ensure your donation dollars are seized by schemers.
…read more
Source: How to donate to Orlando victims and avoid scams
The Federal Reserve didn’t raise interest rates Wednesday, a decision widely expected following a weak May jobs report.
…read more
Source: No rate hike. Fed pares economic outlook
By Tyler Durden
It may come as a surprise to some, but having tried – and failed – to predict the performance of virtually every asset class in 2016, Goldman is now forecasting the results of games from Euro 2016. It will not come as a surprise, however, that out of today’s 2 games played so far, Goldman has been 0 for 2.
With Romania beating Switzerland 1-0, while Russia unexpectedly was defeated by Slovakia 1:2, Goldman’s prediction? A tie for both games.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
This may be bad news for France which is playing Albania shortly and which Goldman sees winning 3:1. Needless to say, if Goldman is off, there will be even more riots in Paris.
Also, we have bad news for Germany, which Goldman see winning everything.
Finally, considering Russia is near expulsion from the competition, we are confident that after the following news, the committee will issue a comparable warning to the English team as well.
BREAKING: Police use tear gas to disperse unruly English soccer fans in Lille at Euro 2016.
— The Associated Press (@AP) June 15, 2016
#EURO2016: Moment #ENG fans interrupt @harryfear‘s LIVE broadcast https://t.co/HrAPmXBLmz pic.twitter.com/pFKahzsZun
— RT (@RT_com) June 15, 2016
Source: Goldman Is 0 For 2 In Predicting The Results Of Today’s Euro 2016 Games
By Tyler Durden
China’s tremendous credit expansion from the first quarter of 2016 is now ancient history.
After the creation of $1 trillion in aggregate credit, or Total Social Financing, in just the first three months of the year, last month China slammed the brakes on new credit creation, when every aspect of credit growth came solidly below expectations. Then overnight we got the latest, May, data. It confirmed that after the record Q1 credit deluge, the PBOC is now scrambling to slow down the tremendous debt tidal wave. The core component numbers, i.e., Chinese loans, were not bad as new loans of CNY985bn actually printed modestly better than expected:
But it was the ongoing dramatic slowdown in the broader, aggregate credit series, the TSF, that confirms how troubled the PBOC is with the recent record credit expansion, and is doing everything in its power to slow it down. Case in point, May Total social financing (TSF, flow) was only Rmb 660bn in May vs. consensus: Rmb 1000 bn, and down from April’s Rmb 751 bn.
Note the dramatic slowdown.
This was the second worst months for total Chinese credit growth going back all the way to mid-2014 when concerns about China’s shadow banking system first emerged.
Here are more details from Goldman on the breakdown:
May money and credit data were mixed. RMB loan data surprised the market on the upside but the broader measures of M2 and TSF data were substantially below expectations. Within the strong loan data, a large portion (Rmb 528 bn) was long-term household loans, which are usually mostly mortgage loans. While there are signs of weaker property sales in recent weeks, loan supply often lags contract sales so May credit data likely partially reflected this earlier strength in property sales. As some investors tend to focus considerable attention on RMB loan growth as a gauge of policy stance, June monetary data may ease their concerns about the potential for overly aggressive tightening following the People’s Daily editorial by an “authoritative person” in early May.
However, RMB loans are no longer the main source of liquidity for the real economy and therefore it is more important to look at the broader measures.
Here, the adjusted TSF growth shows a clear deceleration from the April level. While M2 sequential growth rebounded from the exceptionally low April figure, it is still at the sub-10% level. Both TSF and M2 suggest somewhat tighter liquidity conditions, at least compared with a very loose 1Q. As we noted in previous comments, the government already started to tweak its policy …read more
Source: Something Unexpected Emerges In China’s Latest Money And Credit Data
100% Pure Garcinia Cambogia Extract – Appetite Suppressant – Carb Blocker Capsules – 2100 MG – 90 Caps
Looking for something special ? Find The Lowest Price HERE
By Tyler Durden
President Obama gave a lengthy and what some would consider quite an angry speech yesterday when further discussing the terrorist attack in Orlando. Obama used the venue to vent about those who have criticized the administration for refusing to use the term “Radical Islam.”
“And let me make a final point. For a while now, the main contribution of some on the other side of the aisle have made in the fight against ISIL is to criticize this administration, and me, for not using the phrase 'Radical Islam'. That's the key they tell us. We can't beat ISIL unless we call them 'Radical Islamist's'. What exactly would using this label accomplish? What exactly would it change?“
“Calling a threat by a different name, does not make it go away. This is a political distraction.”
“If someone seriously thinks that we don't know who we're fighting. That there's anyone out there who thinks we're confused about who our enemies are, that would come a surprise to thousands of terrorists who we've taken off the battlefield.“
The tirade…
The comments were unquestionably a direct response to Donald Trump calling for Barack Obama to step down for not using the words “Radical Islam” when discussing the Orlando shooting just days before.
In his remarks today, President Obama disgracefully refused to even say the words ‘Radical Islam’. For that reason alone, he should step down. If Hillary Clinton, after this attack, still cannot say the two words ‘Radical Islam’ she should get out of this race for the Presidency.
As we've come to expect, Trump didn't stand idle for too long after the rant by Obama. During a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, Trump took the time to hit back at Obama, saying that the President was more angry at Trump than he was at the shooter.
“We've seen that political correctness is deadly, they don't want to talk about the problem. I watched President Obama today, and he was more angry at me than he was at the shooter.“
“One of the folks on television said boy has trump gotten under his skin. But he was more angry, and a lot of people have said this, the level of anger that's the kind of anger he should have for the shooter and these killers that shouldn't be here.“
* * *
And back and forth we go. It's going to be a wild summer…
Source: Trump Responds: "Obama Was More Angry At Me Than He Was At The Shooter"
By Tyler Durden
Over the weekend, we posted a rhetorical question, wondering about the sustainability of the so-called economic rebound, when we showed that contrary to Atlanta Fed Nowcasts and various other estimations, Goldman’s own internal economic tracker, its Current Activity Indicator (CAI), had slowed to 1.3%, the lowest print in 7 years.
Today, Goldman updated its CAI tracker and found the following:
Several major economic indicators have recently disappointed, including both the May employment report and the ISM non-manufacturing survey. While highly valuable, even these individual indicators can be noisy from month-to-month. We therefore rely heavily on our current activity indicator (CAI), a composite measure of economic activity based on the correlations between a large number of high-frequency indicators. The CAI now stands at 1.2% in May, down from 2.2% in April, but with the 3-month moving average still at 1.7% versus 2.0% in December.
In other words, the June CAI just dropped once more, from May’s 1.3% print, to 1.2%, the lowest economic “expansion” estimate since 2009. Perhaps not surprising is that this series has been declining in virtually a straight line since the end of QE3…
So where does this dramatic weakness not captured in Q2 GDP estimates comes from? Goldman explains:
We construct a CAI “heatmap” in two steps. First, starting from the list of 56 indicators entering the calculation of the CAI, we replace component-level indicators with their headline series (e.g. the CAI includes 10 components of nonfarm payrolls; for this exercise we just use overall employment). Second, we express each indicator in GDP-equivalent terms. We calculate GDP growth implied by the univariate relationships and allow the intercept to vary over time for each of the 31 indicators to reflect, for instance, changes in trend productivity growth.
Exhibit 1 shows current implied GDP growth rates by indicator, all expressed as 3-month moving averages. Housing sits on top, with single-family new home sales and single-family housing starts listed in the top-3. Michigan consumer expectations, real retail sales and real personal consumption expenditures also imply a solid 2-3% GDP growth rate, taken in isolation. However, several labor market indicators look soft, with total nonfarm payrolls[1], the payrolls diffusion index and household employment in the bottom quartile of current implied GDP growth rates
The CAI—expressed as a 3-month moving average—has declined from 2.0% in December to 1.7% in May, implying a deceleration in broad growth momentum. To analyze the source of this deceleration, the year-to-date changes in implied GDP growth rates are shown in Exhibit 2. Various manufacturing surveys have picked up, albeit from depressed levels. The five indicators that decelerated the most include labor market gauges (nonfarm payrolls, the diffusion index and household employment) as well as the ISM and Markit PMI services surveys.
The notable recent deceleration of services and labor market data reflects two broader types of rebalancing. First, US factories appear to be gradually recovering after the slowing in industrial activity which started in mid-2014. The gap …read more
Source: Goldman’s Internal Tracker Of The Economy Just Dropped To The Lowest Since 2009
100% Pure Garcinia Cambogia Extract – Appetite Suppressant – Carb Blocker Capsules – 2100 MG – 90 Caps
Looking for something special ? Find The Lowest Price HERE
By Tyler Durden
In his monthly call with DoubleLine investors, Jeff Gundlach ratcheted up the gloomy rhetoric – and considering the rising voices claiming central banks are rapidly losing both credibility and control, he has been spot on – and said on Tuesday investors are dropping risky assets and turning to safer securities including Treasuries and gold because they are losing faith in central banks.
As Reuters puts it Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at DoubleLine, is one of the first heavyweight investors to publicly raise red flags, and to keep hammering it at every possible opportunity, about the credibility of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as countries struggle to manage economic growth. Last year, Gundlach correctly predicted that oil prices would plunge, junk bonds would live up to their name and China’s slowing economy would pressure emerging markets. In 2014, he forecast U.S. Treasury yields would fall, not rise as many others had expected.
“Central banks are losing control and they don’t know what to do … just like the Republican establishment and Donald Trump,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview, speaking one day before the Fed is widely expected to again announce it will do nothing as it continues its one-and-done “strategy.”
“The Fed is confused and their confusion spills into investor psychology,” said Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine. “The Fed changes its tone so frequently, it seems every other week the message is different. They’ve turned into the ‘Zombie Fed.’ They say the meeting this week is ‘live,’ but investors all know it isn’t at all.”
In terms of investments, Gundlach said it is a “dangerous price appreciation game” to purchase German Bunds at current levels and that gold and gold miners are still an attractive place to put money to work. He also said that negative interest rates, notably in Japan, were backfiring. “Negative interest rates don’t do what they’re theoretically supposed to do,” he said, noting the appreciation in the Japanese yen.
He added that negative interest rates “aren’t leading to higher economic growth” and forecast that world GDP could be averaging around just 1 percent against the backdrop of aggressive global monetary policies. To make his case, Gundlach noted the dramatic “drawdowns” from the highs in several stock markets. Germany is down 22 percent, Japan is down 23 percent, China is down 45 percent, the United Kingdom market is down 15 percent and France is down 20 percent.
“Negative rates do not prop up stock markets,” Gundlach said on the webcast. Correct: there’s QE for that… and helicopter money.
But while his pessimism about monetary policy continued, Gundlach was far more sanguine about next week’s key event: the UK referendum vote. “I believe ‘Stay’ will prevail,” Gundlach said during the webcast. He said the polls reflect people’s complaints and frustration rather than the actions they’ll take when voting in the June 23 referendum. “I believe that ‘Leave’ is over-polling, it’s punching above its weight class,” the …read more
Source: Gundlach: "Central Banks Are Losing Control" – His Latest Presentation
By Tyler Durden
If there is one bank that is more concerned than any other about global central bank unorthodoxy, it is Deutsche Bank which as we reported yesterday, saw its stock price drop to a record low yesterday. As such it is not surprising that in his overnight note, DB’s Jim Reid focuses on the “broken financial system” and highlights the one indicator that confirms just how broken the system is: the Bund Yield.
This is what he said:
The Moon landing, JFK’s assassination, John Lennon’s shooting, maybe even the Red Wedding episode from Game of Thrones. In years to come will they also be asking you where you were at the time you heard the news that 10 year Bund yields turned negative for the first time? For me it was in an airport in Vienna! Although there has been a creeping inevitability on this for several days now this landmark remains a truly remarkable event. If one wanted a simple indicator to reflect a broken financial system then this would be a strong candidate. In today’s PDF we show 10 year Bund yields back to the early 1800s to put this move in some perspective. It’s incredible when you think that the central bank responsible for the inflation rate in Germany has a target of (just below) 2% per year. Let us stress that until Governments/central banks change policy, yields are likely stay at ultra low levels due to secular stagnation type themes and the overwhelming amount of QE hoovering up bonds. However it still reflects a broken financial system.
Which is not to say that DB wants a return to normalcy. As we reported back in February, what DB wants is an end to NIRP and a return to more QE and, eventually, the start of helicopter money, both of which at least will not crush DB’s own stock price if only in the immediate future. Until then, expect laments such as this one to persist and get louder.
Source: Deutsche Bank: "If One Wanted A Simple Indicator Of A Broken Financial System, Then This Is It"
By Tyler Durden
After a relatively calm and stable three months, the last three days have seen Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Financial Stress Index soar by the most since the middle of the European crisis in August 2011.
The index, that tracks cross-market risk, hedging demand and investor flows has surged more than 90 percent in just three days…
The last time the GFSI was rising at such a pace was August 2011, when this happened…
In August, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warns that the sovereign debt crisis is spreading beyond the periphery of the eurozone.
The yields on government bonds from Spain and Italy rise sharply – and Germany’s falls to record lows – as investors demand huge returns to borrow.
This level of stress is higher than the Aug 2015 China crisis. It sems for now that more than a few are banking on ‘protection’ saving them…
We just gently remind them what happened in August when ETF liquidity collapsed…
VIX doesn’t hedge that!
Source: Global Financial Stress Soars Most Since 2011 European Crisis
Welcome to Esh Carmel Blog.
