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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.

What will happen is that one day, gold will suddenly be up $100 per ounce, then the next day, $200 per ounce. At first the pundits will be claiming that it’s an anomaly, but as it continues rising, a point will be reached when the average person says to himself, “This seems to be a trend. I’d better buy some gold.” Unfortunately, once the trend is underway, the price that day will have no bearing on whether gold is available. Your local coin shop may be sold out. If you go online, the mints may say that demand is exceeding supply. Large entities will be buying all they can get and the smaller buyers will be way down on the order list, unlikely to take delivery of even a single ounce.

These Are the Good Old Days

Gold has experienced a four year bear market and only recently has begun to rise again. But is it in reality a barbarous relic? Not by a long shot. For over 5,000 years, whenever people have experienced erratic economic periods, they’ve bought gold in order to stabilise their economic position. This has particularly been true whenever fiat currencies have been on the rise and were in danger of hyper-inflating, as in recent years. Most currencies are in decline against the U.S. dollar—a currency which, itself, is very much in danger of collapse in the not-too-distant future.

In the ’70s, I was buying gold in London, as it rose from $35. It reached a high of $850 in January, 1980, then crashed. When gold dropped below $400, I began buying Krugerrands. Sounds like a bargain, and yet, word on the street was that gold was headed further south.

But I was buying long. I was not playing the market; I was building my economic insurance policy. I wasn’t too fussed over price fluctuations, as my gold holdings were meant to cover me if my other investments proved to be a mistake.

At present, gold is well above the high of 1989, but, if we adjust for inflation, we see that gold is actually a bargain at present. This excellent Casey Research chart from 2014 explains it better than mere words:

This tells us that $8,800 would not be an unreasonable level for gold today, if conditions were as dire as they were in 1980. However, conditions are far more dire—debt levels are far beyond any historical levels and markets are in a bubble, just waiting for the arrival of a pin.

A decade ago, when gold topped $700, I predicted $1,500 …read more

Source: Follow The Yellow Brick Road

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By Tyler Durden

As SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne reminds us, the big moves last week were in the bond markets, with numerous bond yields hitting historical lows and many moving further into negative territory. This, he adds, “is no longer yield chasing but a combination of price momentum, economic fear and structural issues.”

This is a big problem for savers and anyone else reliant on fixed income for the simple reason that there no longer is such a thing as fixed income.

But there are worse news for long-term investors according to Lapthorne. Much worse.

In fact, according to the SocGen strategist, “for long-term investors the outlook is dire.” Here’s why:

The following chart plots the excess return from investing 100,000 US dollars for 20 years in a balanced portfolio consisting of 50% MSCI World, 40% global sovereign bonds, 5% cash and 5% corporate bonds. We show the gross amount and a net amount assuming investment charges and costs of 100bps. The figures are simply based on investing for 20 years at the prevailing yield.

If you invested today for 20 years the after cost excess return might be $21,800 (today’s yield on a balanced portfolio is just 199bps minus 100bps) versus $60,000 if you invested 10 years ago – and a $150,000 30 years ago. Of course inflation rates are much lower today than they were 30 years ago and trading and management costs are coming down. But you can’t escape the obvious conclusion: those with large nominal liabilities are going to have to find more money.

Is there any wonder, then, why capital markets are not only manipulated by central banks (as the ECB was so proud to demonstrate earlier), but investors no longer have an interest in playing, knowing that at these prices, the most likely outcome is not winning?

…read more

Source: Why SocGen Thinks That "For Long-Term Investors The Outlook Is Dire"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Last year, following an attempt to motivate the Commodities Futures Trading Commission into investigating rampant manipulation of gold and silver prices, the Chief Executive of one of the world’s leading primary silver companies called on other producers to withhold precious metals from the market in an effort to stem the fraud. He recently reported that not a single producer contacted him to do so. But as precious metals prices fail to reflect the growing demand around the world, one company in particular is actively preparing to do exactly that.

MX Gold Corp CEO Akash Patel and CFO Kenneth Phillippe say that they are positioning their company to stockpile between 20% to 30% of their physical gold production in coming months, noting that prices are nowhere near where they should be at current supply and demand levels. In an interview with SGT Report, Phillipe appears to be taking the stance of many precious metals investors, which is to stockpile the physical asset in anticipation of any number of potentially cataclysmic economic and monetary events like the hyperinflation we are witnessing in Venezuela.

We want to pull out the physical gold… We want to take this gold and we want to store it. We believe that having the physical gold in the vault makes a lot more sense than selling it at these prices. Gold is ready to move. We believe it’s going to continue to rise… we’re going to be storing our gold and holding it for the long-term.

(Full Interview at Youtube)

This whole entire industry – the gold market – is fueled by the economies.

With the economies… the state that they are in right now… where they are continuously printing more money… This is why I understand most people would like to put gold into their portfolio… Because it’s clear to me that people have to take precautions against the unknowable future.

We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow. We don’t know if China is going to blow up. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the U.S. at any given time. They continuously keep printing.

…

We truly believe that people in the United States are not investing into T-bills… government paper is just not what people want at this point in time… gold is liquid… under all these market conditions we truly believe investors are going to acquire gold. Owning the physical gold is the only way to see a major increase [in wealth]…

The United States has gone on for eight years consecutively… and they haven’t gone anywhere. Everything that’s going on in the world… they’re not moving forward… they continue to print paper and the paper is worthless.

Gold is the only physical value we see out there. We also have a lot of silver. We also have a lot of copper… which are the byproducts that will pay for our gold production.

…You use what you need to sell …read more

Source: Gold Miner To Withhold Sales: "Storing It For The Long-term… Makes More Sense At These Prices"

    

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Donald Trump said Monday that he is revoking the press credentials for the Washington Post to cover his presidential campaign, calling the newspaper “phony and dishonest.” …read more

Source: Trump revokes Washington Post press credentials

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By Tyler Durden

Remember those 'almost' all-time-highs?…

First things first, the impressive surge in stocks off the Feb lows have been accompanied by an almost unprecedented collapse in equity trading volumes…

h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge

And as volume has plunged so VIX has exploded in the last few days – in a very similar way to its China-induced August collapse…

With VIX surging above 21 – 4-month highs – as defending 2,100 is now a long-lost memory…

Who could have seen this coming? Well us and anyone who pays attention to the ripples of turmoil from Chinese FX to Saudi forwards to hong Kong money markets to US equities…

And in case you think that's just a spurious correlation, eat this…

Of course, no matter the terrorist attack in Florida, soaring Brexit risk, ugly Chinese and Japanese data, the moment US equity markets opened, it was panic-buying time… (but as futures show that didn't last)…

Small Caps and Trannies were worst on the day…

The opening spike was all USDJPY momo ignition but 106.50 seemed to run out of steam…as NYMEX closed

But bonds and bullion remain the big winners post-payrolls… Bad news is bad news after all…

Treasury yields kept falling…

As rate-hike odds tumble further (along with Fed credibility)

The US Dollar Index slipped notably from the US Open to around the EU close – but was relatively stable aside from that… (cable was noisy as rumors of a 'good' brexit poll turned into news of a bad one)…

Copper outperformed (presumably bad chinese news is good for stiumulus hype?) as crude slipped and PMs managed small gains…

Overnight trading in precious metals was insane as it seems The BIS is getting upset… but is losing…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: VIX Soars Most In 10 Months As Stocks Dump, Gold Jumps

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

In Part 1 we established the rather obvious point that in today’s world of flexible just-in-time production, hours-based labor scheduling and gig-based employment patterns, there is really no such standardized labor unit as a “job”.

Accordingly, the headcount-centered metrics of the BLS, such as the U-3 unemployment rate and the nonfarm payroll numbers, are a relic of a half-century ago world of mines, factories, warehouses and retail shops where a 40+ hour workweek on a year round basis was the standard practice.

In that context, a simple paint-by-the-numbers exercise demonstrates the foolishness of the Fed’s obsession with hitting a quantitative “full employment” target. Since the latter entails gunning the financial markets with monetary “stimulus” until every last iota of “slack” has been drained from the labor market, the question answers itself when viewed in an hours based framework.

To wit, the US working age population between 16 and 65 totals 205 million, meaning that on a standard work year basis of 2000 hours, the potential labor force amounts to 410 billion hours. However, according to the BLS’ own data, only 230 billion labor hours are currently being utilized by the US economy from that potential hours pool.

So all things being equal the unemployment rate is actually 44%!

The point, of course, is that virtually everything which impacts the 180 billion hours gap between potential and actual hours employed is beyond the reach of monetary policy. For instance, about 18 billion hours are removed from productive employment by social security disability recipients and 40 billion potential labor hours are unavailable owing to young adults enrolled in higher education.

Yet neither of these represent unchanging “natural” rates of unavailable labor supply. In fact, they are heavily impacted by public policies originating outside of the central bank, and which can change significantly over modest periods of time.

For instance, the ratio of disabled workers to the population aged 16-65 rose from 2.82% in 2000 to 4.34% at present. That gain is primarily due to the relaxation of eligibility standards for qualification in such areas as “back pain” and bureaucratic drift toward higher rates of favorable case determinations.

Thus, at the 2000 disability ratio of 2.82% there would currently be 5.8 million workers on the rolls or 11.5 billion unavailable labor hours. That compares to the actual level of 9 million workers on disability and 18 billion unavailable hours.

Needless to say, in the scheme of things the 6.5 billion hours lost to higher disability rates is not a trivial difference. It represents the equivalent of 3.7 million nonfarm payroll jobs. That’s more new jobs than have been celebrated on Jobs Friday for the last 18 months running.

The story is similar with the 40 billion labor hours not available owing to the 20 million students enrolled in higher education. In this case, the enrollment rate for the prime student age population (18 to 24 years) has risen from 35.5% in 2000 to about 40.5% at present.

Yet it is surely the case that …read more

Source: The Fed Has Whiffed Again – Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 2

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By Tyler Durden

Presented with no comment…

…read more

Source: Bumper-Sticker Of The Decade

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for latest details.

…read more

Source: Apple to unveil latest software at WWDC 2016

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By Tyler Durden

In May, ICM’s poll showed a 10-point lead for “remain” in the UK’s EU referendum. This morning, after rumors spread of a big “remain” poll, sending GBP higher, ICM just released the details of their latest poll showing a massive swing to 50% leave, 45% remain. Cable and S&P Futures are tumbling…

And bonds are ripping..

May ICM poll:

• Online Poll: 43% Remain, 47% Leave
• Phone Poll: 47% Remain, 39% Leave

And the latest from ICM:

• Online Poll: 44 remain, 49% Leave
• Phone Poll: 45% remain; 50% Leave

According to Twitter:

New ICM poll shows phone 50% vs 45% (5%) to leave, online 49% vs 44% (5%) to leave #Brexit $GBPUSD

— Christopher Vecchio (@CVecchioFX) June 13, 2016

So a swing in phone polls from -8 to +5 in a month! So much for Project Fear…

…read more

Source: Stocks, Bond Yields, & Cable Tumble After ICM ‘Brexit’ Poll Swings Dramatically To "Leave"

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By Tyler Durden

German Finance Minister Schäuble is touted to replace Merkel, and as Martin Armstrong explains, like other politicians of his age, he too is just in a state of denial.

Despite the fact that two-thirds of Germans are fed up with Merkel over the immigration issue, Schäuble is calling for more immigration into Europe. Otherwise, Europe will “degenerate into [an] inbred” continent. As Deutsche Wirthschaft reports (via Google Translate)…

Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), Europe faces ever greater hurdles for migrants warned strongly… “The [border] closure is what would make [Europe] broken, which could degenerate us in inbreeding,” he told the German weekly Die Zeit.

In Germany deceive Muslims contribute to openness and diversity: “Look at times but the third generation of Turks, especially the women. That is nevertheless an enormous innovatory potential. “

These thoughts can be quite crude, respectively. First, it is not the job of politicians to throw with terms such as inbreeding around. Secondly, the term with regard to Europe inaccurate because Europe does not tend to inbreeding already because of its cultures, languages ??and regional identities per se.

But above all, the cause of global flight and migration movements is not to raise the effort the innovative potential of Germany. The causes of migration are war, hunger, exploitation, land theft and ethnic cleansing. Would these reasons disappear, the majority of refugees would stay in their home – and perhaps the Europeans would have to search for their innovative potential have to go to other countries.

Once a career politician has an idea in their head, they will defend it to the end. I suppose this is why they defend the refugees when they rape European girls.

Meanwhile, the United States has issued a travel advisory for all Americans to warn them about traveling to Europe this summer.

* * *

We suspect this will become yet another reason for Brits to consider Brexit.

…read more

Source: Germany’s Schaeuble Warns Europe Needs More Refugees "To Prevent Inbreeding"

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