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By Tyler Durden

Last month’s major divergence between payrolls and The Fed Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) has closed somewhat with the collapse in jobs on Friday. However, as this morning’s LMCI print at -4.8 indicates, labor market conditions in the US are deteriorating at their fastest pace in 7 years.

The 19-factor labor market conditions index developed by The Fed is not
singing from the same Koombaya “everything is awesome” hymn-sheet that
The White House would prefer…

The -4.8 print was considerably worse than the -0.8 expectation.

Is it any wonder the market-implied labor-focused Yellen Fed rate-hike odds are plunging…

…read more

Source: Fed Sees Labor Market Deteriorating At Fastest Pace In 7 Years

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By Tyler Durden

When previewing today’s Janet Yellen speech, we first focus on BofA’s chief economist Ethan Harris who looks not so much at today’s event as at recent appearances by Yellen and various Fed governors and president, and is clearly getting more disenchanted by the Fed’s ongoing flip-flopping, because as he says “it is fair to say that many clients are a bit confused and frustrated with Fed communication.”He continues:

The Fed seems to be constantly changing its focus from one meeting to the next. They seem to regularly promise hikes, only to back off at the last second. Fed statements often seem stale, reflecting where the economy and markets were a couple months ago, rather than current conditions. They say their 2% inflation target is not a ceiling, and yet they only plan to bring inflation back to 2%. They argue that the risks to the outlook are very asymmetric—with rates near zero they have limited anti-recession ammunition—and yet their inflation target is symmetric. This is policy transparency?

In light of the above one could say that the June rate hike odds are an efficient measure of the Fed’s overall credibility in recent months.

As we noted earlier, Yellen is the last scheduled Fed official to speak publicly before the quiet period Fed officials typically observe the week before a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. She’ll give remarks at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia at 12:30 p.m. local time, then will attend a roundtable discussion at the West Philadelphia Skills Initiative starting at 2 p.m. The appearances give her a chance to talk July back onto the table by signaling that the June data may have been a blip. Alternatively, she could push expectations back further by emphasizing the negative developments.

Yellen could note that the May report does not necessarily suggest a more permanent gloom for the labor market, where unemployment at 4.7% is at its lowest level since the beginning of the recession. On rates, she could repeat her line from a week-and-a-half ago that a rise could be appropriate “probably in the coming months.” Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York, said he expects the Fed Chair to reiterate a “relatively upbeat outlook on growth and inflation, while continuing to emphasize the need for caution.”

While likely keeping a July rate hike on the table, Yellen “will emphasize that any decision to act will be highly data-dependent,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Another take of what to expect in today’s key speech comes from DB’s Jim Reid, who says that the weak jobs report “makes for an interesting appearance from Yellen as surely she can’t confidently signal a summer hike now? However she was relatively hawkish when she spoke 10 days ago at Harvard so will one number knock her back to her normal dovish leanings. The market has certainly voiced its opinion. We’ve had a big round trip in June and July hike expectations over the last month. Only 4 weeks ago the probabilities were …read more

Source: Don’t Expect Much From Yellen’s Speech Today

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By Tyler Durden

Following recent stumbles within the global banking sector, not only on the litigation front where banks have paid over a quarter trillion in legal fees and settlements in the past several years, but also due to tumbling profits and more recently, compensation and staffing cuts, many speculated that recent generations of college and MBA grads would pick other career options over Wall Street. They were wrong.

According to the FT, Goldman Sachs attracted more than a quarter of a million applications from students and graduates for jobs this summer, “suggesting fears of a ‘brain drain’ in the sector may be exaggerated as banks introduce more employee-friendly policies.” The number of applications from students and graduates globally have risen more than 40% since 2012, the paper adds. This means there is greater demand to get a job at Goldman than there is even in China where recently 1.2 million job candidates applied for 19,000 much-desired govermment positions.

Needless to say, the numbers show Goldman Sachs is attracting far more potential workers and would-be bankers than they could ever employ. It was not immediately clear how many of the 250,000 applicants Goldman – which in recent weeks have been firing bankers for the first time since the crisis – will end up hiring. Goldman’s 2016 applicants include 223,849 undergraduates applying for summer jobs and new analyst positions, as well as 30,542 MBAs looking for summer jobs and new associate positions. Undergraduate applications are up 46 per cent from 2012 while those holding MBAs are up 15 per cent.

The trend is mirrored at several other large banks such as JPMorgan, which said it was hiring only 2% or graduate applicants to its investment banking division, and Citigroup, where the proportion of would-be analysts and associates hired in its global investment banking division was 2.7% . JPMorgan said it got 40% more graduate applications for investment banking this year than in 2014, but would not give an absolute figure. Morgan Stanley said its North American investment banking division was now attracting about 8,000 applications a year, up from “6,000 plus” in 2006-07. Those candidates are competing for slightly more than 100 spots, the same number as in 2006-07.

Elsewhere, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it only offered jobs to 3% of its investment banking applicants — and that 90 per cent of those offered jobs accept them. Even chronic criminal recidivist Deutsche Bank said its investment bank had a 14% increase in intern applications across the globe this year, and hired 9 per cent more interns than a year ago.

Other banks also say they are seeing higher application levels and improved retention rates despite the battering the industry’s reputation has taken for everything from long hours to causing a crisis that inflicted poverty on a generation. In fact, the worse the global banking industry appears to be, the more job applicants it seems to get.

“The idea that suddenly people don’t want to go into banking — or if they do …read more

Source: Goldman Sachs Gets A Quarter Million Summer Job Applicants

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By Tyler Durden

Not only is support growing in the United States for candidates that are perceived to be ‘outside of the establishment’, and recently and very notably in Austria, Germany and France, but as of today, in countries such as Italy.

Millions of Italians went to the polls on Sunday to vote in local elections for new mayors and town councils in more than 1,300 cities, the results of which could shake up Italy’s political landscape. The elections include Italy’s biggest cities such as Rome and Milan, and come at a difficult time for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, as the country faces weak economic growth, a banking sector on the verge of yet another major crisis, and an uptick in migration.

In the main battleground of Rome, the anti-establishment Euroskeptic 5-Star Movement candidate won the largest share of the votes in the first round of its mayoral election. Virginia Raggi, a 37-year old lawyer running as the upstart euroskeptic 5-Star Movement won 35.6% of the vote cast Sunday in Rome, while Roberto Giachetti, the candidate for Renzi’s Democratic party received just 24.7%. The two candidates will face a runoff on June 19 the WSJ reports. Locals are seeking new leadership that can pull the Italian capital out of a state of turmoil, as it has endured corruption allegations, poor management and political upheaval. Rome has been under special administration since former Mayor Ignazio Marino, a member of Renzi’s Democratic party, resigned last October over accusations of expense irregularities – the Democratic party has been weakened in Rome by a string of political scandals and by a major criminal investigation that uncovered ties between organized crime and City Hall Officials the WSJ adds.

If Raggi wins the second round, it would give the 5-Star Movement a major opportunity to prove its ability to govern. If it can manage to tame some of Rome’s problems, that would also boost the movement’s chances in the next national election. Polls already show that the 5-Star Movement is closing in on the Democratic Party.

Further signs of trouble for Renzi appeared in Naples and Turin. In Naples, the Democratic Party didn’t make it to the runoffs, while in Turin the Democratic Party will have to face the 5-Star Movement in the second round as well.

Renzi has staked his government on a positive outcome of a constitutional referendum that has been called for October, in which there will be a vote on whether to approve a plan to simplify Italy’s legislative process, reduce the senate’s powers and ensure more stable governments – if the referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign, which would pave the way for early elections next year.

“A negative outcome of the referendum would not only end Renzi’s tenure but also throw Italy into uncharted waters” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at London’s Teneo Intelligence.

* * *

We continue to get confirmation that it is not just US voters who have seemingly had enough of the politics as usual. As in Germany and Austria, there …read more

Source: Anti-Establishment Revulsion Hits Italy As 5-Star Candidate Takes Lead In Rome Mayoral Election

    

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