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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

The CFPB Plans On Regulating Payday Lenders, But What Will The Unintended Consequences Be?

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By Tyler Durden

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) plans to crack down on payday lenders, moving to regulate high-interest, low dollar loans that are made by storefront lenders to an estimated 12 million lower-income households living paycheck to paycheck.

The $38.5 billion market is currently left to the states to regulate, but now the government wants to get involved. The payday rule, proposed by the CFPB will impose a complex set of requirements on the payday industry, mandating that lenders assess a borrower's ability to repay and making it harder for lenders to roll over loans, a practice that often heads to escalating borrowing fees the WSJ reports. The rule will go through a 90-day public comment period, with a formal rollout expected early next year.

From the WSJ

Under the new rules, the CFPB imposes a series of “full payment tests” on lenders, customized to different types of loans, requiring the firms to do extensive due diligence to see if borrowers can repay their loans. Currently, few payday lenders do such underwriting, saying it is too costly.

Lenders would be required to go through another review of borrowers’ finances if the borrower seeks to renew or extend the loan.

Congress prohibited the CFPB from setting a direct interest rate cap for federal rules, so the agency is seeking to change the lending practices by other means. To regulate payday lending, the bureau is for the first time relying on its authority to prohibit “unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts and practices.” Marking an area of regulation that is much more nuanced than where it had been given a clear mandate by congress such as mortgages and credit cards.

Payday lenders of course oppose the pending rule, saying it would force many out of business and leave low-income borrowers without much needed credit. Opponents of the rule also cite a January survey by Bankrate.com showing that only 37% of adult Americans have the necessary savings to cover a $500 car repair or $1,000 emergency room bill.

Congress told the CFPB to regulate payday, not annihilate it, and so much of what they are proposing represents annihilation” said Dennis Shaul, chief executive of the Community Financial Services Association of America, the primary industry group of payday lenders.

Even some advocates of new federal regulations on payday lending criticize the rules, saying the complexity and tight strings would discourage banks and others from entering the market, possibly leaving a void. “The CFPB proposal misses the mark” said Nick Bourke, director of small-dollar loan research at Pew Charitable Trusts, who was briefed on the proposal. Bourke added that the rules effectively lock out small-dollar loans from banks.

CFPB Director Richard Cordray said that “too many borrowers seeking a short-term cash fix are saddled with loans they cannot afford and sink into long-term debt. It's much like getting into a taxi just to ride across town and finding yourself stuck in a ruinously expensive cross-country journey.”

Cordray is correct in his assessment, but the critical element here is how to help those low income …read more

Source: The CFPB Plans On Regulating Payday Lenders, But What Will The Unintended Consequences Be?

    

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Venezuela Burning

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Daniella DiMartino Booth via DiMartinoBooth.com,

Sometimes art imitates life. “I know it was you, Fredo. You broke my heart. You broke my heart!” So said Michael Corleone to his older brother just after gripping his face and delivering a kiss of death. The infamous scene was based on the real life events of January 1, 1959. The occasion? A New Year’s celebration in downtown Havana and the moment in history when Fidel Castro overthrew the dictatorship of Fulgencio Bautista. The chillingly memorable scene from the 1974 classic Godfather II foretells the retribution for Fredo Corleone’s ultimate deceit.

At other points in time, life imitates art. So it was with an inaugural speech on February 2, 1999, some 40 years after Bautista fled Castro and Cuba, when Venezuelan President Huge Chavez betrayed his predecessor, Rafael Caldera. Caldera had granted Chavez amnesty and released him from prison in March 1994 following Chavez’s incarceration stemming from a failed 1992 coup attempt sanctioned by none other than Fidel Castro himself. Now it was the traitor doing the kissing.

It is fitting that Caldera, who died in December 2009, did not live to see the Venezuela of today, a sad failed state reflective of the very man he helped bring to power. After all, Caldera had publically defended the unsuccessful coup attempt. In his words, “We cannot ask people with hunger to immolate themselves for a democracy that has not been able to give them enough to eat.” Those words, spoken February 4, 1992, would help to elect Caldera to a second term as Venezuela’s president in 1994. It had been 20 since the end of his first presidential term.

Today Venezuelan children are dying of hunger. Premature babies perish as electrical outages snuff the incubators critical to their survival. Those wracked with disease cannot receive the treatment they must have to battle their ailments; diabetics and cancer patients die unnecessarily every day. In the worst cases, as has been documented by numerous media outlets, hospitals have become menaces in and of themselves with operating theatres unfit for use. Patients die in pools of their own blood.

Such is the inconceivable reality of the politically-divided, drought-ridden country that rests upon the world’s largest oil and iron ore reserves. How has Venezuela spiraled so far out of control in the wake of the commodities supercycle that built modern-day China, one that filled the coffers of resource-rich exporters worldwide?

A bit of history helps explain how events have tragically aligned. As is the case with many regime changes, Caldera entered office just as financial crisis was descending. Banco Latino had failed before his term had even begun and was followed by the failure of 10 more banks. Deposits were lost and the government had to step in to provide aid to the financial sector.

The economic devastation that followed was severe. An exchange rate policy imposed by the government caused prices to skyrocket, rendering the necessary supplies to conduct business prohibitively expensive. More than seventy thousand small and medium-sized companies went …read more

Source: Venezuela Burning

    

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Jamie Dimon Warns "Someone Will Get Hurt In Auto Lending" As Citi Sees No Rebound From Abysmal First Quarter

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By Tyler Durden

Yesterday JPMorgan’s chief executive for corporate and investment banking, Daniel Pinto, sparked hope that the collapse in investment banking revenue and profits plaging the banking industry in the first quarter had ended, when he said that JPM is on track for a mid-teens percentage increase in markets revenue in the second quarter compared with a weak period a year earlier (he also added that compensation in fixed-income is down 25% over the past five years and headcount is down 10%). This guidance was quickly dashed by Jamie Dimon today, however, when the CEO said during a Bernstein investor conference not to project a 15% increase in trading revenue.

Whether JPM was merely using a “trial balloon”, or is merely a shining star of profitability in an otherwise dreary field, is unknown however any hope of a broad rebound for banks was quickly dashed when Citigroup CEO Mike Corbat said that unlike JPM, Citi’s Q2 net income will be roughly 25% lower than the same period a year earlier. Corbat, speaking at an investor conference in New York, also said that he expects second-quarter net income to be roughly flat with the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter, the company reported $3.5 billion of profits, about 25% less than the $4.65 billion it reported on an adjusted basis in the second quarter of 2015.

It is unclear what Citi’s revenue forecast was but unless the bank is suddenly doubling compensation, it is unlikely that it would see any material rebound in top line growth.

As Reuters notes, Citigroup has been grappling with a long-term decline in capital markets revenue and higher costs to comply with regulation. The company has been spending to reduce staff and office space, while also beefing up its credit card business.

Corbat was questioned repeatedly at the conference about the company’s push to promote its “Double Cash” credit card that pays users 2 percent of what they spend, and about its aggressive bidding to take the Costco store co-branded card business from American Express.

He said the card investments will pay off because the card business is expected to provide a return on assets of about 2.25 to 2.35 percent over the economic cycle, or twice the target for the entire company. It was not immediately clear what the average FICO of “double cash” recipients was.

And while JPM’s immediate future is supposedly rosier than most, Jamie Dimon did issue one warning, which happens to be familiar to regular readers: the danger from auto loans. At the same Bernstein presentation, Dimon said the market for U.S. automobile lending is “a little stressed” and that he foresees higher losses ahead for some competitors. “Someone will get hurt in auto lending” he said, but quickly added it won’t be JPMorgan.

As Bloomberg writes, “Americans surged into dealers’ showrooms as cheap gasoline and a growing job base helped boost auto sales to a record year for sales in 2015. Lenders followed: The average amount financed …read more

Source: Jamie Dimon Warns "Someone Will Get Hurt In Auto Lending" As Citi Sees No Rebound From Abysmal First Quarter

    

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China Is The Biggest Short…Ever

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Hambone's Stuff blog,

As simply put as possible… over the next 2 decades, there will be an average of 7.5 million fewer 0-55yr/old Chinese every year vs. an average annual increase of 9.5 million 55+yr/olds. And the wealthy minority of the elderly have stashed their reserves in a whole lot of expensive, vacant real estate that they intend to pass along (rent or sell) to the declining young population. What could go wrong since housing prices only go up…right!?!

China, a story of a massive population and population growth. As the adult population growth began to wane, debt was substituted for the waning growth. Population growth turned to massive outright depopulation among the young while all remaining population growth was among the “pig through the python” elderly. But as the Chinese gained wealth, (particularly among the wealthy of the tier 1 & tier 2 cities) the wealthy, soon to be elderly didn't trust banks or the stock market…instead they piled their savings primarily into real estate. The top quintile of Chinese purchased the bulk of the new, speculative inventory of high end housing typically buying multiple apartments and condos. The vacancy rate among the housing segment in these cities is supposedly in excess of 20% (compared to a peak of 3% during the US subprime crisis). There are roughly 500 million households in China and best guestimates suggest that there are 50 million or so vacant housing units…or 10% of the national housing stock.

To put this in perspective, I'll compare it to the US subprime crisis…a crisis that was likewise triggered by the demographic deceleration of population growth. But still, despite decelerating in the US, there was (and still is some growth…see below). The Fed was determined to use (ok, abuse) interest rate cuts as a substitute for decelerating population growth among adults. The chart below outlines the decelerating 20-64yr/old annual population growth through 2025 (this includes all permanent residents…legal or otherwise).

And on a percentage basis (below), the declining growth among the adult population correlated to the Federal Funds rate and federal debt. The introduction of nothing down, NINJA and liar loans was simply because there was a collapsing number of potential buyers to support a speculative bubble, particularly in the “tier 1” US cities and locations.

And the changing nature of US net new job creation vs. US new home creation (below). A 2.5 to 1 ratio has inverted since '00 with more houses being created than full time jobs to support them. Further evidence that US subprime crisis was triggered by a demographic collapse…HERE.

So, back to the biggest bubble leading to the biggest short (ever?). The chart below highlights China's annual adult population change, the Bank of China discount lending rate, and China's moonshot of total debt. The decelerating population growth offset by declining lending rates leading to …read more

Source: China Is The Biggest Short…Ever

    

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Air Force Jet Crashes Moments After Flying Above President Obama

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By Tyler Durden

President Obama had a close encounter today.

Shortly after the president delivered his commencement address at the Air Force Academy’s graduation ceremony in Colorado, a Thunderbirds fighter jet crashed south of Colorado Springs just after the team had performed at the Air Force Academy’s graduation. The pilot safely ejected. According to the Denver Post, the crash happened minutes after the Thunderbirds’ F-16 jets flew over President Obama and others at the ceremony. Photos from the scene showed the white jet upright and seemingly intact in a field.

The Thunderbirds had just finished their traditional performance at the Air Force Academy graduation, screaming overhead just as the graduating officers tossed their white hats into the sky. The jets then did multiple fly-bys over the academy’s football stadium, where the ceremony took place, blasting by in tight formations or looping high overhead. There was no obvious sign of trouble with any of the jets during the performance.

Obama was still at the stadium taking photographs and greeting attendees in a private area during the air show that lasted about half an hour south of Colorado Springs. News of the crash broke while Obama’s motorcade was returning to Peterson Air Force Base for his flight back to Washington. The crash occurred about 15 miles south of Peterson Air Force Base, where Air Force One was waiting to take off.

Obama briefly met with the pilot who crashed, shaking hands with him before he departed on Air Force One. Press Secretary Josh Earnest said the president “thanked the pilot for his service,” according to a pool report.

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

Benjamin Newell, spokesman for the Air Force’s Air Combat Command in Langley, Va., said the crash happened as the pilot was returning to Peterson Air Force Base. He said the crash resulted from a “mishap.” Newell said it’s extremely rare for a Thunderbirds pilot to crash, saying they are among the best pilots in the Air Force and chosen specifically, because of their ability, to be a part of the program.

“We are unable to release the specifics at this time,” Newell said, citing an ongoing investigation. The pilot was able to walk away from the crash unhurt, Air Force officials said, but was being evaluated. “It’s a very traumatic event,” Newell said of an ejection.

“This is a very rare thing for them and in the Air Force overall,” Newell said.

The Thunderbirds said no one was hurt on the ground in the crash and that there is no hazard to the public. The cause of the crash was not immediately known, the Thunderbirds said in a statement.

The AP video below shows the Thunderbirds in action moments before the crash

In a separate incident, just hours later, a U.S. Navy Blue Angels F-18 crashed, the Navy public affairs office at the Pentagon said. The Blue Angels had been in the Smyrna, Tennessee, area for practice, according to the flight demonstration squadron’s Twitter account. According to CNN, one person died in …read more

Source: Air Force Jet Crashes Moments After Flying Above President Obama

    

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The Rise Of ‘Soft’ Prostitution

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Marcus Williamson via Medium.com,

You may have seen the adverts, like the one above, or the headlines:

‘A quarter of a million’ UK students now using sugar daddies?—?BBC

Meet the sugar baby who’s had 10 sugar daddies – and has found love with one?—?Mirror

Things Are Thriving In The “Modern Hooker Economy”?—?Zerohedge

For those of you who aren't aware of what is going on here exactly, well let me cease your virginity on the matter.

This will be a non technical, yet comically financial style review of the rapidly growing industry, the areas which will be covered are the following:

1. The market securities (Students)

2. The market participants (Old men)

3. The market exchange (SeekingArrangements)

4. The market regulations (SeekingArrangements Blog Tips)

5. The effects of the marketplace on society (Why this is bad…)

* * *

1. The Market Securities

The marketplace has several asset classes ranging from single mothers to males, but more recently a new asset has been added.

Students

Students differ somewhat to existing securities due to their inherently different risk profile. Said differently, this is how much they cost compared to what they can in theory ‘deliver’ to the purchaser.

The method on which they have arrived in this marketplace is also different, they have been cornered, and now are being exploited.

Without further ado, let me introduce the asset class formally:

Sugar Babies, Female

A sugar baby

These securities are the supply element of the marketplace. There has been a recent spike in supply with over 250,000 UK students recently joining. Currently the most active tranches (Universities) can be seen below:

The fresh inflows are quickly assimilated into the marketplace, thanks to near insatiable market depth. The young, high yield securities are then bought, consumed, transferred between their counter-parties, then discarded (usually, but not always).

Sugar Guide for new Babies

They will typically set the buyer back £600-£2000 per month. Securities (Students) which have recently had an IPO (they signed up to a sugar daddy platform), can often be purchased for below intrinsic value (they don’t know how much money to ask for). However although an enhanced entry opportunity is present, they carry an unrated risk profile.

2. The Market Participants

The solid backbone to the marketplace; providing great market depth and consistent demand. The market participants are typically male, ranging from 30–50 years in age, with a dash of social instability. They are called Sugar Daddies.

Sugar Daddies

A not so gentle Gentleman

These form the demand within the marketplace; the counter-parties to Sugar Baby securities. They look to strike an ‘arrangement’ if the securities features fetch the right price.

Their investment profiles (desires) are clearly defined, and they look to acquire a portfolio of as many securities as needed to fit their risk / reward ratio.

However, Sugar Daddies have been known to crowd securities, forcing valuations higher. This often leads to a undesired …read more

Source: The Rise Of ‘Soft’ Prostitution

    

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Dip-Buyers Panic Bid Stocks As Yield Curve Crashes To 9 Year Lows

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By Tyler Durden

Today was yet another one of those days where you just have to laugh… (warning NSFW)

As the Treasury yield curve collapses to its lowest since 2007 with the S&P within a couple of percent of record highs…

Simply put – Bernanke broke the 'market' in the summer of 2011.

Futures show the farce once again as whatever weakness was seen overnight – red arrows – (in this case a failed OPEC meeting and drop in crude) was suddenly panic bid as US equities opened (green shaded regions)…

On the day, an ugly open was manically bid until the European close and then again into the NYMEX close…before a late day panic buying spectacle

Another day, another VIX-driven surge in stocks to make sure S&P regains 2,100 (because it makes perfect sense to sell down protection ahead of tomorrow's “most important ever” payrolls print)

The last two days have been one non-stop short-squeeze in cash markets…

Bonds entirely decoupled from stocks today…

What happens next? S&P Futs perfectly top-ticked last week's highs

The US Dollar dipped and ripped today to end unch, but lower on the day…JPY strengthened for the 3rd day in a row…

Commodities once again were mixed… all ending the day relative unchanged despite some major swings (not how oil ramped twice to unch on the week and still fell back)

Crude was once again just crazy… dropping on OPEC's fail and then ripping to the API stops on the DOE 'draw' data then fading once stops were run…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Small Caps ain't cheap

…read more

Source: Dip-Buyers Panic Bid Stocks As Yield Curve Crashes To 9 Year Lows

    

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Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely

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By Tyler Durden

Via The Economic Cycle Research Institute,

With all eyes on the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike, the reality remains that the U.S. economy will stay in a growth rate cycle (GRC) downturn. What we wrote around the time of the December rate hike remains true today: “With the GRC downturn set to deepen, a full-blown rate hike cycle remains improbable” (USCO Essentials, December 2015).

Notably, if the Fed does manage a mid-year rate hike – which itself is uncertain – that would amount to the longest gap on record between the first and second rate hikes.

A full-fledged rate hike cycle comprised of a succession of rate increases remains unlikely in the absence of a GRC upturn, which is not on the horizon. Furthermore, a recession starting late this year or early next year cannot be ruled out. Thus, rate cuts remain on the table over the coming year. Meanwhile, prospects for further rate hikes may run into other difficulties, given the global economic outlook.

In that context, ECRI’s 20-Country Coincident Index Growth Diffusion Index (20CIGDI, Chart), measuring the proportion of the 20 economies regularly monitored by ECRI whose coincident index growth rates have improved over a 12-month span, has already plummeted to a 38-month low. Please recall that, in the summer of 2014, in contrast to an upbeat consensus, ECRI predicted a global slowdown on the basis of this data and its long leading index counterpart, noting that, “with the 20CIGDI having rolled over and the [20-Country Long Leading Index Growth Diffusion Index] also in a cyclical downturn, reports of easing growth are likely to become more widespread internationally” (ICO, July 2014).

That became amply evident in the commodity price downturn that began around that time, as oil demand fell below expectations. Subsequently, the oil price decline was framed as an oversupply problem, as oil producers decided in the fall not to cut production.

Today, cyclical slowdowns are more widespread internationally than at any time in almost three years. Given the Fed’s recent emphasis on global growth, this may create another obstacle to its rate hike plans.

…read more

Source: Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely

    

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It’s Time To Ditch 4 Years Of Costly College For Directed Apprenticeships

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Short, intense directed apprenticeships that teach students how to learn on their own to mastery are the future of higher education.

So it turns out sitting in a chair for four years doesn't deliver mastery in anything but the acquisition of staggering student-loan debt. Practical (i.e. useful) mastery requires not just hours of practice but directed deep learning via doing of the sort you only get in an apprenticeship.

The failure of our model of largely passive learning and rote practice is explained by Daniel Coyle in his book The Talent Code (sent to me by Ron G.), which upends the notion that talent is a genetic gift. It isn't–in his words, it's grown by deep practice, the ignition of motivation and master coaching.

Using these techniques, student reach levels of accomplishment in months that surpass those of students who spent years in hyper-costly conventional education programs. The potential to radically improve our higher education system while reducing the cost of that education by 90% is the topic of my books Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy and The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education.

Let's start by admitting our system of higher education is unsustainable and broken: a complete failure by any reasonable, objective standard. Tuition has soared $1,100% while the output of the system (the economic/educational value of a college degree) has declined precipitously.

A recent major study, Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses, concluded that “American higher education is characterized by limited or no learning for a large proportion of students.”

'Academically Adrift': The News Gets Worse and Worse (The Chronicle of Higher Education)

These two charts are the acme of unsustainability: college tuition has skyrocketed, along with federally funded student loan debt.

The typical graduate of a short, intense directed apprenticeship says “I learned more in a month here than I did in four years of college.” This is a statement of fact, and it is the result of the methods deployed in structured on-the-job training.

It is a fact that passively listening to a lecture does not generate the sort of mastery that creates economic value or the sort of deep understanding that is the goal of a classic liberal arts education.

It's also a fact that rote practice also doesn't lead to mastery, and often kills the very passion for a subject that in more productive programs jumpstarts mastery.

Our higher educational system has failed so badly that many students are incapable of writing/communicating effectively. In a world of rapidly changing technologies across every field and an emerging economy that places an ever-higher premium on collaboration and clear communication across multiple time zones and languages, the ability to write clearly is absolutely essential.

To “graduate” students with poor writing skills is completely unforgivable. Yet in the current system, if a student logs the requisite number of credits, a diploma is …read more

Source: It’s Time To Ditch 4 Years Of Costly College For Directed Apprenticeships

    

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"I Hope They Have Kidnapping Insurance" – Trump Blasts PGA Tour For Taking His Tournament To Mexico

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By Tyler Durden

“It is a sad day for Miami, the United States and the game of golf” is the way Donald Trump started his statement in response to the news that the PGA Tour has decided to move a long-standing golf tournament from Donald Trump's golf course in Miami, Florida.

The PGA Tour announced Wednesday that the event formerly known as the WGC-Cadillac Championship that was held at Trump National Doral will now be called the WGC-Mexico Championship, and will be held at a venue in Mexico City starting in 2017.

Trump Doral had been the site of a PGA Tour event since 1962 according to ESPN, and PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem insists that it is not a political decision.

“Some of the reaction revolves around the feeling that this is a political exercise, and it is not that in any way, shape, or form. The decision here was based on the reality that we were not able to secure sponsorship for next year's WGC at Doral or for years out for that matter. At the same time, we had an opportunity to build what we think is going to be a spectacular event in an area that is strategically important to the growth of the sport and the activity of the PGA Tour that has been focused in South America and Central America for the last good number of years” Finchem said.

Cadillac did not renew its sponsorship after the 2016 tournament, and even though in 2013 the PGA Tour announced a 10-year contract extension with Trump National Doral through 2023, the deal was contingent upon title sponsorship. A sponsorship requires around $10 million for one event according to ESPN.

Although the move from the Tour's perspective was business related, Finchem hinted that the tournament's inability to find a sponsor may have been related to Trump's politics: “I know everybody's talking about politics, but it's actually not that, in my view. I think it's more Donald Trump is a brand, a big brand, and when you're asking a company to invest millions of dollars in branding a tournament and they're going to share that brand with the host, it's a difficult conversation.

The irony wasn't lost on the world's former number one ranked golfer Rory McIlroy, who said “It's quite ironic that we're going to Mexico after being at Doral. We just jump over the wall.”

As for Trump, he had his usual headline grabbing comments on the matter as well.

“I just heard that the PGA Tour is taking their tournament out of Miami and moving it to Mexico. It's at Doral, they use one of my places – They're moving it to Mexico City which by the way, I hope they have kidnapping insurance.

* * *

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle on what happened to the tournament, but one thing is for sure, there is rarely a dull moment when it comes to The Donald.

Full Trump Statement

“It is a sad day for Miami, the United States and the game of …read more

Source: "I Hope They Have Kidnapping Insurance" – Trump Blasts PGA Tour For Taking His Tournament To Mexico

    

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