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In Today’s Layoff News: Microsoft Fires 1,850; Intel Cuts 350; Shell Terminating 2,200

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By Tyler Durden

How do you know the Fed is justified in hiking again, the economy is recovering, and the market are zooming higher? One hint is the just announced thousands in layoffs in both the energy and tech sector, among which are Shell, which announced it would layoff 2,200 jobs; Microsoft reporting it would cut 1,850; and Intel terminating up to 350 jobs in Germany.

The details:

Shell Cuts 2,200 More Jobs, Bringing Total Losses to 12,500

  • Co. to make additional 2,200 job cuts by end of 2016, according to e-mailed statement.
  • Brings total number of staff and direct contractor roles leaving Shell from start of 2015 to the end of 2016 to at least 12,500
  • Will reduce size of the organization supporting U.K. and Ireland upstream business by ~475 people
  • “These are tough times for our industry and we have to take further difficult decisions to ensure Shell remains competitive through the current, prolonged downturn,” Paul Goodfellow, Shell’s vice president for U.K. & Ireland, says in statement

Microsoft Unveils as Many as 1,850 Job Cuts, Phone Unit Charge, Microsoft to take $950m impairment and restructuring charge.

  • Charge includes $200m for severance payments: statement
  • CEO Satya Nadella pares back the company’s ambitions in smartphones
  • About 1,350 jobs will be cut in Finland, base of the handset business co. acquired from Nokia in 2014
  • Further details to be released with 4Q earnings in July

Intel to Cut 300-350 Jobs in Germany, WirtschaftsWoche Says

  • No forced redundancies are planned, WirtschaftsWoche says, citing unidentified co. employees.
  • Job-cut program to be in place by end of June
  • Co. also to close site in Ulm
  • Co. employs about 3,500 staff in Germany
  • Note April 20: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

Source: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: In Today’s Layoff News: Microsoft Fires 1,850; Intel Cuts 350; Shell Terminating 2,200

    

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"Run For Cover If You’re Short" Gartman Pleads One Day After Saying "2,025 Is A Given"

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By Tyler Durden

For today’s dose of pre-market entertainment, we go once again to Dennis Gartman, who clearly perturbed by the violent turnaround in global stocks yesterday appeared on CNBC where the “closely followed market-watcher” said the early week’s market gains could continue for the next couple of weeks.

“Historically when that happens, we carry through. So I think you’re likely to trade better — maybe not today, particularly — but I bet by Friday we’re higher and I bet by next week we’re higher again,” Gartman told CNBC in London.

Anybody who’s short – and there are a lot of smart people who are in fact heavily short – they have to run for cover, and I think it could get ugly.

Gartman comically added that he reversed his short and turned long on the Euro STOXX 50 following Tuesday’s rally, confirming his infamous “retirement fund” is nothing but a momentum chasing pile of virtual cash.

“When the Euro STOXX 50 reversed to the upside, after having opened lower and then gotten higher on the day, I said to myself, ‘this is turning better, something’s taking place,'” Gartman told CNBC.

“Perhaps it was the agreement that was reached between the EU (European Union) fiscal authorities and Greece… that seemed to me to be the turning point and once you got higher on the day, it’s as if the shorts, I being included, had to rush to get long and I actually ended the day long here, which is unusual for me to turn my position that quickly,” he said.

As a reminder, this is what the “closely followed market-watcher” said exactly 24 hours ago:

In our retirement account here at TGL we have simplified our position taking in the equity market: we have only a position in derivatives on the short side, and although it is not a material position it is one-sided. We’ve cast our long positions aside. We’ve simplified; we’ve gotten smaller; but we are bearishly inclined, and we are intent upon adding to those bearishly inclined positions the very moment in the futures markets that 17,400 is given in the Dow futures; the moment that 2025 is “given” in the S&P futures; the moment that 4290 is “given” in the NASDAQ futures and the moment that 1085 is “given” in the Russell. These will all happen almost simultaneously. Our antennae are up; so too should everyone’s be.

So many givens… so little time. And some more amusement from his latest note:

We begin then by noting firstly that we were obviously uncommonly wrong in being even modestly net short of equities coming into yesterday’s trading session. That became abundantly and swiftly clear to us about one hour after we had sent yesterday’s TGL to our clients around the world as the EUR STOXX 50 and the DAX indices both had opened lower; turned higher on the day and were taking out the previous day’s highs in what seemed to be only a matter of a very few moments... Indeed, we cannot recall having seen a more …read more

Source: "Run For Cover If You’re Short" Gartman Pleads One Day After Saying "2,025 Is A Given"

    

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Just Stop It!

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By Tyler Durden

^SPX Chart

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The posse of fools in the Eccles Building is so petrified of a stock market hissy fit that it has more or less created a Wall Street doomsday machine.

After trolling on the zero bound for 89 straight months now, the FOMC falsely believes that it has levitated the U.S. economy to the cusp of full-employment via massive liquidity and wealth effects pumping.

As a consequence, it refuses to let the market have breathing room for even a modest correction, insisting that just a few more months of this monetary lunacy will permit a return to some semblance of normalcy.

But it never gets there. The truth is, this so-called recovery cycle is now visibly dying of old age and being crushed by the headwinds of global deflation. Rather than acknowledge that the jig is up, our feckless monetary politburo just equivocates, procrastinates and prevaricates about the monumental policy failure it has superintended.

So the casino punters just won’t go home. They hang around against all odds, failing to liquidate and thereby enabling the robo machines to engage in endless and pointless cycling between chart points. As shown in the graph below, this has been going on for nearly 600 days now.

But of late the churning has been occurring in an increasingly narrow channel. Accordingly, the spring is being coiled ever more tightly.

When this 83-month long simulacrum of a economic recovery finally rolls over into recession someday soon, therefore, the implosion will be thunderous. The robo-machines will chase the punters out the casino exits in an epic stampede of selling.

^SPX data by YCharts

Indeed, given the headwinds emanating from all corners of the global economy and financial system it is hard to believe that any sentient carbon units actually participated in today’s 19th nervous short squeeze in as many weeks. Among other things, first quarter results have been fully posted and it turns out that the S&P 500 companies earned $87 per share during the last 12 months (LTM).

That’s down from the $99 per share LTM figure posted in Q1 last year and the peak of $106 per share recorded in the year ended in September 2014.

In short, reported GAAP earnings—–the honest kind companies report to the SEC on penalty of jail—— are now down 18% from their recent bubble cycle peak. But since the S&P 500 has remained within 3% of its May 2015 all-time high (2130), it means that the PE ratio has been rapidly inflating right into the teeth of falling profits and a rapidly cooling domestic and global economy.

In fact, the market closed today at 23.9X, which is a truly ludicrous valuation level. We are in the waning days of the third bubble cycle of the 21st century, yet the casino is pricing current earnings as if recessions have been outlawed and that the long-term growth trend of earnings is in double digits..

So here’s a spoiler alert. When S&P 500 earnings peaked prior to the financial …read more

Source: Just Stop It!

    

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Gundlach Feels Like We Are Back In December, Says "Stocks Are Dead Money" After A Short Squeeze

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By Tyler Durden

In his latest contrarian comments to Reuters, Jeff Gundlach focused on the recent flipflopping by the Fed and its various speakers who are now positioning the market for an imminent rate hike despite the US economy still treading water, and said that while many Fed officials are “dying to raise rates,” but all that matters is Janet Yellen’s opinion, a glimpse of which we will get as soon as this Friday when she speaks at Harvard. “All that matters is Yellen. She is still there.”

Last week, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said the U.S. economy could be strong enough to warrant an interest rate increase in June or July, reinforcing the drum beat from within the Fed in recent days that rate increases are coming soon. A range of policymakers with normally varying views on monetary policy are now stating a rate increase is possible at the next policy meeting in June.

Further, he noted something many have suggested, namely that sentiment from late 2015 has returned, when the market was optimistic that just because the Fed is hiking that some surprising surge in the US economy is on deck: both the Fed and the market were wrong: “I feel like we are back in December again, where everyone thinks that there is a super secret that some Fed officials have this knowledge that the economy is really good.”

There was no super secret and in fact, the Fed was proven very wrong when the market tumbled shortly after the hike.

As a result, he said on Tuesday that the rally in U.S. stocks, which began on Monday, feels like a short squeeze and characterized U.S. stocks as “dead money.

His sentiment echos that of not only Goldman, which recently unveiled a surprising warning hinting a drop back to 1850 is in the cards, but also that of Bank of America which last night said that “we are seeing the same decoupling between US and EM stocks that that turned out a leading indicator in Aug and again in Jan.

Gundlach has been generally bearish on stocks in recent months as the market has gone largely nowhere. It remains to be seen if central banks will allow him to be right, and when.

…read more

Source: Gundlach Feels Like We Are Back In December, Says "Stocks Are Dead Money" After A Short Squeeze

    

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Precious Metals: Fake-Rally Ends, Hostage Markets Return

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By Sprott Money

Precious Metals: Fake-Rally Ends, Hostage Markets Return

Written by Jeff Nielson

Back at the beginning of 2009, we had a real rally in the precious metals sector. The price of gold increased by roughly 2 ½ times. Silver led the way, rising more than double that amount. And the precious metals miners soared much higher, leveraging the gains in metals prices – as they must do, in any legitimate rally.

The rally occurred immediately after the Crash of ’08, the manufactured crash at the end of the Big Banks’ previous bubble-and-crash cycle. It occurred after a sharp, ruthless take-down of precious metals prices had established a clear “bottom” in those markets. That rally was terminated in 2011, by the Big Banks, in one of the most-obvious price-capping operations in the history of markets.

What has followed is 5+ years of what has previously been referred to as “Hostage Markets”: markets which were kept in a permanent choke-hold since that date, with prices grinding steadily lower and lower. This brings us to the beginning of 2016.

At the beginning of this year; the price of gold did something which we had not seen for several years: it went up. At the beginning of this year; the mainstream media did something which we had not seen for several years: it began praising gold as an asset class – and announced that “a new rally” had begun. The talking heads proclaimed that the “fundamentals” for gold were now bullish, and thus the price should start to steadily rise.

There was never any reason to consider this to be a real, spontaneous rally, and several strong arguments to conclude that this was an upward price-fixing operation of precious metals prices, to set the stage for a larger, general crash, at the end of the current eight-year, bubble-and-crash cycle from the Big Bank crime syndicate.

1) Nothing at all has changed in precious metals markets (except the rhetoric of the mainstream media) versus the last 5+ years.

2) Silver has failed to “lead the way”, as it must in any/all legitimate rallies.

3) The Big Banks remain in complete control of all markets.

Taking these reasons in order, mainstream propagandists have proclaimed that precious metals markets are now supported by bullish fundamentals. However, the “fundamentals” for gold and silver have remained equally bullish throughout the 5+ years where we were forced to endure Hostage Markets. In other words, any “reason” that could be made for gold and silver prices to rise now was equally valid, at all times over the past 5+ years.

“Technical analysis” (a pseudo-science with little statistical validity) would argue that the reason we are supposedly seeing a rally in 2016 is because gold and silver have “built a base” over the past 5+ years, and thus are now “ready” for the next leg higher, in their long-term bull market. However, this argument only applies to asset classes which have already risen …read more

Source: Precious Metals: Fake-Rally Ends, Hostage Markets Return

    

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US Spy Plane Disrupts Civilian Flights While Spying On Russia

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By Tyler Durden

By now we are accustomed to hearing about US spy planes flying recon missions that are either infringing or extremely close to infringing on the borders of other countries – especially Russian borders.

A US defense attache has been summoned by Russia's Defense Ministry to explain why a US spy plane was not only flying close to Russia's border on Sunday, but dangerously close to civilian aircraft as well. The US crew had not provided any information regarding its flight to air traffic controllers in the region, despite flying at the same altitude as scheduled civil aviation flights, and at least two passenger jets belonging to major European airlines were endangered by the then unknown aircraft according to Interfax. Planes headed to Switzerland from Japan even even reported visual contact with the US plane.

It's also important to note that the spy plane had its transponders turned off, something that Russia explicitly said not to do if the US is going to be sniffing around Russia's borders.

As RT reports

“As the result of the unprofessional actions of the American plane crew, the hazard of a collision with civil aviation planes was created,” Russia's Defense Ministry said, adding that it asked the US official to take measures to prevent such incidents from happening near Russia's borders in the future.

At least two passenger jets belonging to major European airlines were endangered by the then-unknown aircraft over the neutral waters of the Sea of Japan on Sunday, Interfax reported.

The “unknown aircraft” was flying at the altitude of some 11,000 meters (36,000 feet) and did not respond to air traffic control, the agency said citing its source. Russian air controllers had to immediately change the flight path of a KLM Boeing-777, which was in the same region en route from Japan to Holland.

Pilots from another airplane, operated by Swiss airlines, heading to Switzerland from Japan, even reported “visual contact with a large four-engine aircraft, which was in direct proximity to their plane” and sent no recognition signals, the source said. The flying altitude for the Swiss jet also had to be changed by the air traffic control.

* * *

Clearly the US needs to stop with these missions before someone gets hurt and an international incident is triggered, however knowing that will never happen, might we suggest that the US at least get to the point where its spying isn't detected every single time.

…read more

Source: US Spy Plane Disrupts Civilian Flights While Spying On Russia

    

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Switzerland Prepares To Vote On "Free Lunch" For Everyone

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By Tyler Durden

die-schweizer-initiative-fuer

Submitted by Claudio Gras via Acting-Man.com,

Will the Swiss Guarantee CHF 75,000 for Every Family?

In early June the Swiss will be called upon to make a historic decision. Switzerland is the first country worldwide to put the idea of an Unconditional Basic Income (of $2,500 per month for every man, woman, and child for doing absolutely nothing) to a vote and the outcome of this referendum will set a strong precedent and establish a landmark in the evolution of this debate.

The Swiss Basic Income Initiative in a demonstration in front of parliament. As we have previously reported (see “Swiss Parliament Shoots Down Socialist Utopia” for details), Switzerland’s parliament has already rejected the idea, with even the socialists voting against it (proving that they are still in possession of most of their marbles and quite likely in possession of an abacus as well).

The Swiss public will have to approve or reject a change in the constitution that would allow for the introduction of an Unconditional Basic Income (UBI), or a preset, monthly minimum income to be paid out by the government to every adult and child in the country if their income falls below a specific threshold. Even though details of this proposal have been few and far between, the most commonly cited amount of this guaranteed income would be 2,500 Swiss Francs for adults and 625 francs for children. The architects of the proposal stress that this government-guaranteed payment, unlike the current benefit programs, will be entirely “no questions asked”, i.e., it will not be means-tested and will apply to every person legally living in Switzerland.

Currently, these are all the details that the Swiss have at their disposal to make their decision. No plan has so far been put forward to specify how such a proposal would be financed, whether an increase in income tax or VAT will have to be enforced, which specific existing welfare programs it would replace or how the glaringly obvious exploitation possibilities of such a plan would be avoided, without any kind of means test – or without “asking any questions”, according to one of the campaign’s catchphrases.

The main argument of the supporters of this initiative is that it would support the people that will, or already do, lose their jobs to automation and technological progress; a defensive move against “the rise of the robots” as they put it. They also claim that such a measure will give people the opportunity to grow, to learn and to pursue skills or professional goals that are now rendered prohibitive by their current meaningless and mundane jobs, that they are forced into in order to simply pay their bills. “What would you do if your income were taken care of?” asked the pro-UBI campaign in Geneva, with a poster that officially made it into the Guinness Book of Records as the world’s largest.

Biggest poster ever

Meet the world’s largest poster ever. As to the answer to …read more

Source: Switzerland Prepares To Vote On "Free Lunch" For Everyone

    

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China Is Executing To Plan: Foxconn Replaces 60,000 Workers With Robots

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By Tyler Durden

Last month we discussed the fact that officials had approved the latest Five Year Plan for China's economy. The ultimate goal of the plan is to overtake Germany, Japan, and the United States in terms of manufacturing sophistication by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

To make that happen, the government needs Chinese manufacturers to adopt robots by the millions. It also wants Chinese companies to start producing more of these robots, , and to enable that there is an initiative making billions of yuan available for manufacturers to upgrade to technologies including advanced machinery and robots.

The manufacturing hub for the electronics industry, Kunshan, in Jiangsu province is proving that that initiative is well underway. As the South China Morning Post reports, thirty five companies, including Apple's key supplier Foxconn, spent a total of 4 billion yuan on artificial intelligence last year, and more companies are going to follow suit.

Spurred by the initiative and a desire to cut down on labor costs, Foxconn has reduced its workforce by a whopping 60,000 people thanks to the introduction of robots. Foxconn's headcount went from 110,000 down to 50,000 (adding to the mass layoffs that we have warned will cause further social unrest in China).

We're not sure how all of this will play out in the grand scheme of the Five Year Plan that was put together, but what is clear is that China is wasting no time in executing the early stages of the plan.

That is just the beginning.

The transition from human to robot workers may upend Chinese society. Some displaced factory workers could find employment in the service sector, but not all of the 100 million now employed in factories will find such jobs a good match. So a sudden shift toward robots and automation could cause economic hardship and social unrest. “You can make the argument that robotic technology is the way to save manufacturing in China,” says Yasheng Huang, a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. “But China also has a huge labor force. What are you going to do with them?”

For now, that question remains unanswered, but that won't stop from unleashing the biggest robotic revolution seen in recent years.

In an effort to minimize the social unrest that is already taking place, the country has said that as much as $23 billion will be set aside to cover the layoffs in the coal and steel sectors as it tries to cut down on overcapacity – we're eager to find out how much will be set aside for workers that are being displaced by these robots.

The Global Monetary System Has Devalued 47% Over The Last 10 Years

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com,

We have argued the inevitability of Fed-administered hyperinflation, prompted by a global slowdown and its negative impact on the ability to service and repay systemic debt. One of the most politically expedient avenues policy makers could take would be to inflate the debt away in real terms through coordinated currency devaluations against gold, the only monetize-able asset on most central bank balance sheets. To do so they would create new base money with which to purchase gold at pre-arranged fixed exchange prices, which would raise the general price levels in their currencies and across the world to levels that diminish the relative burden of debt repayment (while not sacrificing debt covenants).

The odds of this occurring seem to have risen, judging by the gold prices. Table 1 looks at gold performance over one, five and ten years in terms of the fifteen currencies representing the fifteen largest economies (about 77% of global GDP). The bold figures at the bottom show gold’s performance weighted for GDP.

Gold is mostly quoted in US dollars, but it is also implicitly valued at each point in time in all currencies (as is everything that may be bought or sold across the world), simply by applying cross exchange rates to its USD price. Table 1 shows the experience of gold holders around the world has been quite different. A Russian would have had the currency he receives his wages in devalued to gold by almost 370% over the last ten years. Or, he could have generated a 370% gain by converting his ruble savings into gold. Anyone else in the world would also show a 370% gain by having owned gold and having been short the ruble.

Meanwhile, gold in dollar terms, as it is quoted for capital market participants given London and US exchange dominance over fungible gold trading, is up far less – about 94%. (This performance also represents gold performance for currencies pegged to the dollar, like the Saudi Arabian riyal.) Gold in Chinese yuan terms and Swiss franc terms are only about 57% higher over the last ten years.

The wide gap in gold’s performance is due to sharp differences in ongoing currency exchange rates. Gold is a currency hedge – the stable fulcrum around which fiat currencies fluctuate. Gold is not consumed and has no internal rate of return. Changing market quotes for gold – whether for spot gold, gold futures or gold bullion – merely represent currency exchange rates. The performance of gold in Table 1 is not the performance of gold at all, but rather the performance of the currencies in which it is quoted.

The last line of Table 1 shows gold price changes adjusted for the relative importance of currencies, as determined by GDP. It implies that the global monetary system has been devalued against gold by 46.88% over the last ten years (1/1.8824), which was in line with the MSCI ACWI World equity index over this time.) One who produced a good or service …read more

Source: The Global Monetary System Has Devalued 47% Over The Last 10 Years

    

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Anti-Trump protest erupts

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…read more

Source: Anti-Trump protest erupts

    

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