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By Phoenix Capital Research

For most investors, the sudden collapses in stocks that we keep experiencing feel they like they come “out of the blue.”

After all, we are told incessantly by the Government and the media that the economy is going strong and that everything is great for the stock market.

If those claims are true, how do you get moments like these, when the market enters a free-fall, erasing months’ worth of gains in a few days?

These periods happen because the hype and hope about a recovery are based on a few key data points (GDP growth and the unemployment rate) that are heavily massaged to make things look better than they are.

The reality is that the “recovery” is in fact much weaker than is commonly believed.

And a lot of times those “great numbers” are revised sharply down long after the headlines fade.

Case in point, the BLS recently revised its data for industrial production growth over the last few years much lower.

In fact, according to the BLS, industrial production since 2009 has only grown by a measly 5%, instead of the 14.3% that has been claimed by the media.

Even more incredibly, industrial production today remains 9% BELOW where it was in 2007 at the last economic peak.

Periods like these are periods in which REALITY breaks through the MYTH of recovery.

The Fed often reacts by propping up the markets to stop a collapse… but as we’ve learned during the Tech Crash and Housing Meltdown, you can only prop up a LIE for so long.

Indeed, the markets look to me like they’re finally going to enter the BIG collapse we’ve been predicting.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

…read more

Source: Are Stocks About to Hit Another Air Pocket?

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By Tyler Durden

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The prices of industrial metals have dropped to a near-record low level relative to precious metals, a trend that has had larger negative consequences in the past.

It seems that one of the fads among market technicians recently is the utilization of “ratio’ charts. That is, the comparison of one one asset’s performance relative to another. But while these ratios can make for interesting conversation, their practical value is more questionable.

For one, it can be difficult, or impossible, to accurately construct and execute a real-world strategy based on them. Secondly, while the ratio line may have the appearance of a discernible pattern, it may still lack any instructive value if there is no reasonable relationship between the two assets being compared. For example, it may be that the ratio of soybean meal to Netflix stock has the appearance of a bottoming pattern. However, does that provide any thematic instruction at all? And what’s to say that the ratio of 2 completely unrelated assets isn’t totally random – and subject to change course on a dime and without notice?

That said, we do not think that the use of ratios is devoid of value totally. In fact, we have found a lot of value in selective ratios, as long as the assets bear at least some remote relation to each other. Plus, the cool thing is that technical analysis can at times be successfully employed on ratios, typically in the form of support, resistance and trendlines.

Such is the case with today’s Chart Of The Day. The chart is the ratio of industrial metals to precious metals, specifically the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index to the S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index. And it is actually a ratio chart that we like, for several reasons.

1. The 2 two price series are from the same asset class and, thus, at least somewhat relatable.
2. While not always the case, each asset contains an implied message regarding the state of the economy or markets at large. The industrial metals are said to be a barometer of economic demand. Meanwhile, precious metals are very often a safe haven during times of turmoil.
3. The implied messages of the 2 assets are for the most part contrary in nature. Often times, the market forces that will prop one of them up will push the other one down. Thus, combining the 2 into a ratio can visually accentuate the message that markets are sending.
4. The bonus is that the ratio is at a very interesting juncture at the moment.

Let’s take a look at the chart.

As indicated on the chart, the ratio is knocking on the door of all-time lows. Note how, as we said, the ratio takes to basic technical analysis as it found support at the very same level in 2009, 2011-2012 and again earlier this year. If this “triple bottom” of support is broken, the ratio may be primed for a swift and deep move lower.

Whether that occurs or not is to be determined. However, it is not premature …read more

Source: Heavy Metals Sending A Warning To Economy, Markets

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The Chinese government cranks out 488 million fake social media posts a year in an effort to divert attention away from sensitive issues, a new study estimates.

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Source: China’s 488 million social media posts

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By EconMatters

By EconMatters

The internals for the Weekly EIA Report were solid and we are raising our outlook for price accordingly when combined with the recent global supply disruptions in production.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

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Source: We Are Raising Our Oil Target Again to 60 by July 4th (Video)

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Illinois state workers, are the highest paid in the nation.

Yet, despite the fact that Illinois is for all practical purposes insolvent, the AFSCME union demands four-year raises ranging from 11.5 to 29 percent, overtime after 37.5 hours of work per week, five weeks of vacation and enhanced health care coverage.

AFSCME workers already get platinum healthcare benefits that would make nearly everyone in the country green with envy.

This is a guest post from Ted Dabrowski at the Illinois Policy Institute, of which I am a senior fellow.

For years, Illinois taxpayers haven’t been represented at the bargaining table between Illinois’ largest government union and the state. Illinois’ former governors cared more about appeasing the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees than protecting the taxpayers the governors were supposed to represent. That’s how AFSCME workers have become some the highest-compensated state workers in the nation.

Now the union is working overtime to remove Gov. Bruce Rauner – who actually represents taxpayers’ interests – from labor contract negotiations. The union supports House Bill 580, which would strip the governor of his ability to negotiate. AFSCME wants the current contract dealings turned over to unelected arbitrators who are likelier to decide in the union’s favor.

AFSCME wants to remove the governor from contract negotiations because union officials know Rauner will not agree to outrageous demands. Union leaders are demanding $3 billion in additional salary and benefits for union members in a new contract. They’re seeking four-year raises ranging from 11.5 to 29 percent, overtime after 37.5 hours of work per week, five weeks of vacation and enhanced health care coverage. Those additional demands would come on top of the costly benefits that AFSCME workers already receive.

Here are four facts about state-worker compensation the union doesn’t want taxpayers to know:

1. Illinois state workers are the highest-paid state workers in the country

Illinois state workers are the highest-paid state workers in the country when adjusted for cost of living. Illinois pays its state workers more than $59,000 a year, far more than its neighbors and nearly $10,000 more than the national average.

Moreover, state AFSCME workers have received salary increases not matched in Illinois’ private sector.

Median AFSCME worker salaries increased more than 40 percent from 2005 to 2014, reaching more than $62,800. During that same period, median private-sector earnings in Illinois remained virtually flat.

2. AFSCME workers receive Cadillac health care benefits

In addition to paying state workers the highest salaries in the nation, Illinois taxpayers also subsidize a majority of AFSCME workers’ Cadillac health care benefits.

The average AFSCME worker receives the ObamaCare equivalent of platinum-level benefits, but only pays the equivalent of bronze-level insurance premiums. That forces a vast share of AFSCME workers’ health care costs onto state taxpayers.

AFSCME workers pay for just 23 percent of their health care costs, or $4,452 a year. State taxpayers pay the remaining 77 percent, or an average of $14,880 per worker.

<img alt="IPI Dab3" …read more

Source: Illinois State Workers, Highest Paid In Nation, Demand Up To 29% Wage Hikes

    

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The Chinese government cranks out 488 million fake social media posts a year in an effort to divert attention away from sensitive issues, a new study estimates. …read more

Source: Fake in China: 488 million social media posts a year

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By Tyler Durden

As the immigration crisis continues to intensify in Europe, Germans are buying protection – lots of it.

Recall that last year, following a 600% surge in pepper spray purchases, the country actually ended up running out of the product. Shortly thereafter, following a wave of New Year's Eve attacks, small arms sales subsequently skyrocketed.

Now we learn that in the first three months of 2016, fear continues to be on the rise, as small weapons licenses in Bavaria have already doubled the entire total for 2015. As the number of refugees rose in 2015 and into 2016, so did the number of locals applying for small weapons licenses – authorization to use blank-firing guns The Local reports. The blank-firing guns are designed to ward off attackers, but can also be deadly.

The applications for such weapons has risen steadily over the past few years, with 2014 and 2015 applications being 2,379 and 5,748 respectively. However, the first three months of 2016 has already surpassed the entire total for 2015. In February alone, 7,435 licenses were given out, and March saw another 4,677.

It bears repeating that the political landscape in Germany is shifting to a more anti-immigrant tone, as we showed in the anti-immigrant AfD party's rise in the polls (in support of the AfD's anti-Islam manifesto).

“The explosive rise in the number of small weapons licenses being handed out is worrying. We don't need the people of Bavaria to arm themselves. Possessing arms and practicing vigilante justice are not an example we want to set. The danger is that more and more conflicts will escalate if more people arm themselves. We need to act against this.” said Katharina Schulze, interior affairs spokesperson for The Green Party in Bavaria.

Schulze has a reason to be worried, as not only is the political sentiment changing, but violence against refugees is now on the rise. Recall only a few days ago when we reported that arson fires have been increasing at refugee shelters, and police have voiced concern over the growing violence.

While the situation in Germany (and other European countries) remains tense as it relates to the immigrant crisis, if Turkey doesn't get everything it wants and more from the EU, the new flood of refugees will escalate the situation to a whole new level.

…read more

Source: Demand For Small Arms ‘Protection’ In Germany Explodes As Immigrant Fear Rises

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By Tyler Durden

With Trump going after billionaire-funded media in America, and Italy facing probes over its banking-system-controlled media, it is perhaps no surprise that yet another generally corrupt nation – Greece – is facing a parliamentary committee investigation into spuriously large 'bank loans' and highly-concentrated advertising spend made to various political parties and media groups in 2015.

The Parliamentary Inquiry Commission decided on Wednesday to investigate the advertising expenditure of Greek banks to the media over a period of the last 10 years. As KeepTalking Greece reports, the Commission investigates in general the legality of bank loans to political parties as well as loans to mass media groups. The extension of mandate to investigate also the bank advertisement to media was submitted by SYRIZA MP Annetta Kavvadia, a former journalist.

According to Kavvadia, “70% of the bank advertising expenditure was distributed among five media and media groups in 2015″ and that the citizens had a right to know that while the banks were stopping loans to Small & Medium Enterprises they were profusely posting ads in the same media that had taken loans from them.”

<span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

“>“It is interesting to see what amounts of money were given by the banks to particular media companies that allegedly had taken loans form the same banks and were unable to service these loans, ” Kavvadia said.

<span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

“>New Democracy representative at the Committee rejected Kavvadias’ proposal claiming that it went beyond the Committee’s mandate and did not support the proposal.

<span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

“>The representatives of SYRIZA, Independent Greeks, Golden Dawn, KKE, Centrists’ Union, voted in favor, GD asked an investigation ever since 2002. PASOK and To Potami voted “present”.

The Comm<span title="? ???????? ????????? …read more

Source: First Italy, Now Greek Banks Being Investigated For ‘Funding’ Politicians, Media

    

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Fed officials expressed surprise that investors just about wrote off any chance of a rate hike this year. Now the Fed is calling for two rate hikes.

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Source: Fed officials to Wall Street: You’re wrong

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted Op-Ed at SputnikNews.com,

Let’s start by examining what the Dragon himself – President Xi Jinping – has to say about China being largely derided in influential Beltway circles as a House of Cards.

Xi has forcefully dismissed the notion that a House of Cards power struggle has been raging at the rarified heights of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Yet at the same time he’s adamant; “conspirators”, “careerists”, “cabals” and “cliques” are attempting to undermine the CCP from within.

Thus, with ironic/poetic justice, a 42-part series on corruption in China – titled In the Name of the People and financed by the Middle Kingdom’s top law enforcement agency – is bound to go live before the end of 2016, featuring a CCP stalwart as the bad guy (that’s a first). Call him the Chinese Frank Underwood.

This means that what Xi is saying – and acting — live will be mirrored on hundreds of millions of Chinese screens, pitting conflicting factions within the 88 million-member CCP. Xi’s war on corruption has produced a rash of severely disgruntled CCP officials – to put it mildly.

Xi not only is the Commander-in-Chief in the fight against corruption; he’s now Commander-in-Chief of China’s joint battle command center as well. He monitors a [Central Military Commission] Chairman Responsibility System as well as the central guard corps, which monitors the security of all other CCP heavyweights.Add to these Xi’s status as CCP’s general secretary, chairman of the Central Military Commission, president of the national security commission and head of the top group for reform of the Chinese system, and a Harvard academic who refers to him as “the chairman of everything” does not seem to be that far off the mark.

Yet even this awesome concentration of power does not mean that Xi is an unassailable deity. On the key drama – the state of the economy – it has emerged that in a recent interview by the People’s Daily with an anonymous “authoritative person”, printed on the front page and exposing deep economic divergence among the CCP leadership, the “authoritative person” in question was none other than Xi.

He had to take to the key media read by anyone who’s anyone in China to press his point on how to fix China’s debt-ridden economy; low growth is OK, and the new normal; as for blind credit expansion/monetary easing, that’s not OK. Xi, once again, is adamant; it’s now or never to start a painful restructuring of the Chinese system.

Beware the “nests of foreign spies”

Xi Jinping does wield astonishing power. There can’t be any other way. Imagine the man on top of a civilization-state of 5,000 years who needs, among myriad other crucial issues, to; tweak/manage an economic system that was successful for over 30 years but now needs to be upgraded; shift the system from export-led demand to domestic consumption; manage the aspirations – and broken dreams – of a vast working class including millions of …read more

Source: Is China A "House Of Cards"?

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