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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Tony Sagami via MauldinEconomics.com,

Get a load of this headline from a German newspaper, which translates into “Extreme Low Interest: Who Saves Is the Fool.”

The reason for that insulting headline is simple: central bankers have been waging a war against savers.

Example #1: Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, offered this sage (sarcasm alert) advice last week: “I would be prepared when they move – and I hope they move sometime in June – there’ll be a settling in of the market place. There will be a correction. Suck it up. Deal with it. That’s reality.”

Example #2: ECB President Mario Draghi had this to say: Negative interest rates are “not the problem, but a symptom of an underlying problem” caused by a “global excess of savings.”

“If central banks did not do this, investing would be unattractive,” said Draghi. In other words, shut up and buy some stocks!

What those central bankers want you to do is either (1) spend money to increase demand, or (2) buy stocks to increase capital.

Well, it sure looks like American consumers are not doing the former.

How many times have you heard experts say that the US economy is consumer driven? It’s true; almost 70% of our GDP is attributable to consumer spending.

However, the latest Census Bureau numbers show that retail sales fell 0.2% in March following a contraction in both February and January. In other words, retail sales fell over the entire first quarter.

Of course, the people who know how consumers are really doing are the people who sell to them, such as Sally Smith, the CEO of Buffalo Wild Wings, which just reported an awful quarter:

“The macro environment for casual dining has had a rough quarter and a rough couple of quarters. I just don’t think there is a robust consumer out there.”

If Smith and the Census Bureau are right, our economy is headed for a recession. EVERY time the yearly growth rate of retail sales has fallen below 3%, the US economy has gone into recession.

At the same time our consumer-driven economy is hitting a brick wall, there is a regulatory change coming that could knock the stock market off its feet.

SEC Ready to Stop Accounting Shenanigans

I’m talking about the Securities and Exchange Commission finally doing its job and putting a stop to the accounting hanky-panky that artificially inflates profits.

According to Dow Jones, the SEC is getting ready to step up its scrutiny of companies’ “homegrown earnings measures,” signaling it plans to target firms that “inflate their sales results and employ customized metrics that stray too far from accounting rules.”

It looks like the SEC is waking up to the misleading picture that pro forma earnings—compared to generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP—generate. Now the commission is launching a campaign to crack down on made-to-order earnings.

Mark Kronforst, chief accountant of the …read more

Source: Saving Is Dumb… Say The Central Bankers

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Disney reported its second quarter earnings on Tuesday, and all eyes were on ESPN.

…read more

Source: Disney falls short of expectations

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By Tyler Durden

Yeah ok – the best day in US equities in 2 months… on what? Data has been crap (even JOLTS 'good news' does nothging but corner The Fed into rate hikes even more), earnings have done nothing, bonds are rallying, and oil rallied on the back of a surge in production (perhaps front-running API inventory data)…“it's all good” up here right?

US economic data continues to deteriorate…

And it appears bonds have been right…

Volume plunges to 2016 lows…

Russell 2000 Small Caps underperfomed on the day as the rest of the major indices seemed to trade tick for tick after Europe closed except for Nasdaq's meltup (today's move felt much more index top down driven than any “stock” buying)

Nasdaq “Golden Cross”-ed this week, seemingly traded very technically, bouncing off the 100DMA and pushing to test the 50/200DMA…

Futures give us a better look at the excitement…

VIX tumbled to 3-week lows (13 handle) extending S&P's bounce off the Year-to-Date “unch” levels…

Bonds and stocks decoupled (both bid)…

Stocks accelerated notably more than VIX implied…

And “Most Shorted” stocks were squeezed for 30 mins after Europe's close, they continue to underperform…

After the biggest 7-day redemption in history (yes ever ever), HYG soared today by the most in 2 months – makes perfect sense… (CDX HY rallied by the most in 2 months also – tightening 18bps to 441bps)

Treasury yields traded in a narrow range, with the curve modestly glatter (2Y +2bps, 30Y -0.5bps)…

The USD Index gained modestly onteh day thanks to continued weakness in JPY (despite strength in commodity currencies)…

While copper ended red, and despite USD gains, Crude soared and PMs managed decent gains on the day…

Finally, it appears the dismal jobs data on Friday has prompted excitment in stocks and crude oil (yay less people employed to buy gasoline!!), left bonds unphased, and caused safe haven buyers to abandon Gold (hey – a job's a job right)…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Credit Up, Commodities Up, Dollar Up… Volume Down, Economy Down

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By Tyler Durden

Every year for the past four, Goldman started off the year with an undauntedly optimism and a bullish forecast, one which usually involved a material increase to GDP expectations and, just as importantly, rising 10Y bond yields. And every year for the past four, it took Goldman a few months before it was forced to trim both its GDP forecast and cut its expectations where the 10Y would end the year.

Moments ago 2016 became the latest year in which Goldman was forced to admit it had been too bullish if not on economic growth (that too will come) then certainly on inflation expectations, and as the bank’s Francesco Garzarelli admitted moments ago, “we are lowering our bond yield forecasts in the major advanced economies by an average 30-40bp across the forecast horizon. Specifically, we now see 10-yr US Treasuries ending 2016 at 2.40% and 2017 at 2.75%, from 2.75% and 3.30%, previously. The corresponding new forecasts for German Bunds are 0.50% and 1.00% (compared to 0.60% and 1.00% previously), and those for JGBs are 0.10% and 0.30% (from 0.30% and 0.60% before). Exhibit 13 at the end of this document summarizes the forecast changes.”

Why the cut? Because after the bank was finally forced to throw in the towel on its wrong 3 rate hike call last week, it no longer has a catalyst to push a strong inflation agenda. Here’s Goldman:

Our new projections reflect (i) a downgrade in the profile for Fed Funds rates announced by our US team last Friday (2 further hikes in the remainder of this year, followed by a further 3 next year, compared with 3 and 4 previously); and (ii) the ongoing absorption of duration risk by the ECB and particularly by the BoJ, delivered in conjunction with negative policy rates.

In other words, much slower growth than Goldman had originally expected, coupled with more central bank intervention and frontrunning of bond purchases, coupled with yield differentials between Europe and Japan where the central banks are actively soaking up all available Treasuries, and the US where for the time being there is no QE.

The forecasts conservatively assume that the current deviation from our Bond Sudoku valuation framework (between 1.5 and 2.0 standard deviations from ‘fair’) will be slowly corrected over the forecast horizon to one standard deviation over the next 6-9-months and close to half a standard deviation by end 2018. We reiterate our view that yield levels below 1.75% in 10-yr US Treasuries (a two standard deviation event) are unlikely to be sustained unless the macro outlook deteriorates materially.

Translation: expect the 10Y to drop below 1.75% on very short notice.

Of course, Goldman does not want to admit that it is wrong (as in the case of its EURUSD parity call), but rather that the market is, well, broken, and provides the following chart to explain why that is the case:

US Treasuries Are Close to 2 Standard Deviations Expensive Relative to Their Fair Value

Well, if they are so “expensive” maybe central …read more

Source: Goldman Warns Central Banks May Unleash "Financial Turbulence, Rate Shock" As It Cuts Yield Forecasts

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Mark Cuban, originally posted at BlogMaverick.com,

I learned it from watching Dennis Rodman and Paris Hilton. Tell the media what they need and want to hear. Give them a place and time to talk to you about it. Watch the headlines roll in.

Dennis would tell them where he would be partying, with who and something wild he would do. Paris would tell them what she would be wearing and what celebs she would be partying with. Both knew exactly how to leverage the media of the time to their advantage.

It wasn’t long after I got into the NBA I realized that every team had multiple media outlets that had to write, talk or broadcast something every day. They craved content. It was so easy to get them to write almost anything.

Once I started getting fined by the NBA, the national door flew wide open. At the time, sports media, not only believed they were journalists, they actually tried to be. They wrote stories. They tried to add some depth of coverage to even the simplest or stupidest of topics, say working at a Dairy Queen because I had gotten fined hundreds of thousands of dollars for saying the head of NBA officiating (who still works for the NBA btw), could not manage a DQ. Media back then was incredulous that I would say the things I did.

It made for a lot of fun battles with them. If they challenged me based on some nebulous opinion they held, I would challenge them right back. The give and take was fun for me. Entertaining for some and amazing at brand building for me as well.

Over time media and the media changed. I started this blog in 2004 particularly to respond to the media. Here is my first blog challenging Kevin Blackistone, here is me ripping the NYTimes 10 years ago this week . The good old days.

Around 2010 social media really started to take off and have an impact on reporting. In particular Twitter changed the sports media game. Scoops were no longer delivered in the next newscast or web update. Trolling for clicks was no longer enough. You had to break stories on twitter.

The problem for political media is that they have not changed with the times. They are getting used and abused by Donald Trump in a way only those who truly understand Headline Porn, like the sports media, truly appreciate.

Donald can talk for hours and say nothing of true substance. But every few sentences he is going to spout out Headline Porn that is going to fit in 140 characters or so and unquestionably have to be discussed by “The Political Shows”. I’m not sure he realizes he is doing it. Im not sure who he reflects the most, Rodman or Hilton, but he is following in their footsteps. There are certain things that when a celebrity says them, the …read more

Source: Headline Porn: Mark Cuban Exposes The Ugly Truth About The 2016 Election

    

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