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Ed Welburn, vice president of design, is retiring after 44 years. We asked him to pick his favorite cars. …read more

Source: In Photos: 11 iconic GM cars

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Apple just announced its worst sales in over a decade, dragged down by the first-ever decline in iPhone sales.

…read more

Source: iPhone sales sink for the 1st time ever

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By Tyler Durden

Nothing to see here, move along…China commodity carnage, US data dismal, and a Fed meeting that has to err on the side of hawkishness…

The commodity carnage in China continued overnight…

But for the 4th day in a row, authorities intervened to support Chinese stocks…

And that provided some hope oveernight into the US open…

On the day – very mixed – Nasdaq underperformed but Trannies & Small Caps squeezed higher…Dow/S&P Unch…

Once again, VIX was smashed into the close in an effort to maintain Dow 18,000…BUT FAILED

Another day, another short squeeze…lifts Trannies & Small Caps

AAPL was chaotic today into earnings…

FANGs had their worst 3-day run in almost 3 months, back to 6-week lows…

Treasury yields rose for the 2nd day heading into The Fed meeting, with a wider range today…

The USD Index drifted lower once again… (though notably JPY weakened also)…

Copper drifted lower – dragged by the industrial metal collapse in Chinas but crude and PMs all rallied on the weaker dollar…

Crude algos panic-big oil prices above $44, running yesterday's high stops ahead of tonight's API report…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Macro madness…

…read more

Source: FANGs Slump Despite Crude Pump As China Commodity Carnage Continues

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By Tyler Durden

While it has amounted to nothing more than mere populist posturing and jawboning, with the occasional entertaining (fabricated) clip of a submarine missile launch thrown in for good measure, North Korea’s launches of ballistic missiles have succeeded in provoking anger among the international community, which has so far been unable (or unwilling) to provide an adequate response to Kim Jong Il’s periodic “shows of strength”, mostly for domestic consumption.

However, Obama now appears ready to respond. In an interview with CBS’ Charlie Rose, Obama described the regime as “a massive challenge.”

“Our first priority is to protect the American people and our allies, the Republic of Korea, Japan, that are vulnerable to the provocative actions that North Korea is engaging in,” Mr. Obama said.

He said North Korea is “erratic enough” and the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, is “irresponsible enough that we don’t want them getting close.”

“But it’s not something that lends itself to an easy solution,” Mr. Obama said. “We could, obviously, destroy North Korea with our arsenals. But aside from the humanitarian costs of that, they are right next door to our vital ally, Republic of Korea.”

So how is Obama preparing to fend off threats from North Korea? It appears that the US will set up a missile defense system to surround North Korea and shoot down any future flying nuisances.

“One of the things that we have been doing is spending a lot more time positioning our missile defense systems, so that even as we try to resolve the underlying problem of nuclear development inside of North Korea, we’re also setting up a shield that can at least block the relatively low-level threats that they’re posing right now,” Obama said.

Which is surprising considering North Korea has no chance of ever launching a fully functioning ICBM, let alone one which can reach the US.

So what is the unsaid impetus for this move? Perhaps it is simply to deploy even more ships and military equipment in the region where recent diplomatic posturing between the US and China over various contested islands in the South China Sea has been the biggest geopolitical threat in recent years.

“How aggressive do you see the action in the South China Sea? And do you worry that they will cross some line, in which you’ll have to respond more aggressively?” Rose asked the president.

“I’ve been consistent, since I’ve been president, in believing that a productive, candid relationship between the United States and China is vital, not just to our two countries, but to world peace and security,” Mr. Obama said.

It’s not a zero-sum game, Mr. Obama added.

“What is true, though, is that they have a tendency to view some of the immediate regional issues or disputes as a zero-sum game,” he said. “So with respect to the South China Sea, rather than operate under international norms and rules, their attitude is, ‘We’re the biggest kids around here. And we’re gonna push aside the Philippines or …read more

Source: Obama Reveals Plans To Build A "Missile Defense Shield" Around North Korea

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By Tyler Durden

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Does an unprecedented show of positive breadth foretell a quick end to stocks’ recent struggles?

One year ago, the emerging theme in the stock market was the failure of the stock market’s internals to keep pace with the advance in the major averages. This negative divergence would persist into the summer before reaching a head in late July. For us, it was easy to reach the conclusion that the internal deterioration had substantial negative implications for the broad market. This was based not only on intuition, but historical evidence as well. Now whether or not the long-term negative implications suggested by that internal deterioration come to pass is still to be determined. However, I think it is reasonable to assume that this dynamic played a role in the weakness that unfolded over the subsequent 6 months.

Fast forward one year and we have the opposite situation…sort of. The breadth off of the mid-February low has been extraordinarily positive, even out-shining the advance in the large-cap averages. While this is a positive and bodes well for an eventual extension of the 2-month rally, we would not place its implications on par with last year’s situation. Last year saw a persistent negative divergence wherein many pieces of evidence accumulated into a great big storm cloud. Present circumstances are likely a positive factor on a smaller scale. Even so, the positive breadth again augurs for favorable market action, at least in the intermediate-term.

Then there are “one-offs” like we saw on Friday (April 22), i.e., unusual breadth occurrences that may or may not have implications for the near-term or longer. What happened on Friday? The Nasdaq 100 dropped almost 1.5% and the broader Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. Despite that, advancing stocks on the Nasdaq accounted for over 62% of all issues.

• That marked the most positively skewed breadth on any day in history (back to 1988) that the Nasdaq Composite lost at least 0.8%.
• Or, conversely, it marked the worst day ever for the Nasdaq Composite when advancing issues accounted for at least 60% of all stocks.

So is this just a bit of interesting trivia, devoid of larger meaning? Maybe, but let’s check out some similar historical precedents that may shed some light on what, if anything, we can expect going forward.

Obviously we have to relax our parameters a little given that Friday’s divergence was unprecedented. So first off, let’s look at all days the Nasdaq dropped at least 0.8% with more advancing issues than declining issues. Since 1988, there were 22 such days, before Friday.

Interestingly, Friday marked the first such occurrence since January 2008. Obviously, that date dispels the notion that our present case has to lead to positive longer-term performance. At the same time, however, there have been an equal number of dates occurring during cyclical bull and bear markets. So, perhaps any longer-term message can be dismissed.

As to the question of positive implications in the short or intermediate-term, those can essentially be dismissed as well – …read more

Source: Is Breadth Signaling More Than Meets The Eye In This Market?

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for latest details. …read more

Source: Prince had no will, says his sister

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By Tyler Durden

“Forgive the macros – they know not what they do.”

That is how Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson begins his note explaining why while risks for oil continue to rise, the “macro rally can persist.” Specifically he says that while “oil continues to rise on the back of macro funds, CTAs, index/ETF flows and investors fearful of missing out” the fundamentals remain bearish and are set to deteriorate further, “esp if prices move higher. Non-fundamental rallies can last for several months and near-term catalysts may be lacking, but a macro unwind could cause severe selling given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally.”

In justifying the relentless “macro” driven buying, Longson writes that “close your eyes and buy seems to be the mantra for now.”

Here a curious question emerges: will the algo buying push oil back to the $60/bbl level we saw last summer. This is his answer.

While fundamentals don’t justify a cyclical recovery in oil yet, the market continues to move higher. The primary driving force has been macro funds, index money and CTAs. Technicals and momentum have only added to it, and there is a sense from some of investors that they need to buy for fear of missing out. Also similar to 2015, we see a confirmation bias where any bullish data point is embraced (e.g. supply outages, weekly US production, etc) and bearish data points are dismissed or spun as a buying opportunity (i.e. the worse is behind us).

Non-fundamental rallies can last for several months before the physical market pushes back. In 2015, the rally to $60 WTI lasted for over 2 months.

Yet, unlike other assets, there is a physical market behind commodities. If prices move too early, there are real world implications, even if those facts are slow to play out. It’s one reason why expectations investing is less effective in commodities. Nothing happens until it happens. Fundamentals are poor and set to deteriorate. The macro/CTA players are mostly generalists and quants expressing a macro view. Yet, the market impact underscores how macro and technical oil trading is at the moment. The problem is that prices are approaching important fundamental levels, and the fundamental trends look worse.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals are set to deteriorate:

Fundamentals are poor and set to deteriorate. The macro/CTA players are mostly generalists and quants expressing a macro view. Yet, the market impact underscores how macro and technical oil trading is at the moment. The problem is that prices are approaching important fundamental levels, and the fundamental trends look worse.

A significant number of supply outages are set to resolve in the coming weeks/months.

• OPEC production could rise nearly 1 mmb/d from Mar – June, and Doha’s failure could setup a market share war with many producers now calling for growth.
• Prices above $45 WTI will start to impact the rate of decline in US supply and should attract much more producer hedging. We are also already seeing increased appetite for energy lending after this move – a reversal from …read more

  Source: Will Algos Push Oil Back To $60? Morgan Stanley Begs You To "Forgive The Macros, They Know Not What They Do"

      

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Spirit Airlines scored the lowest on this year’s American Customer Satisfaction Index’s travel report, while JetBlue and Southwest tied for first place. …read more

Source: This airline scores dead last in customer satisfaction

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