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"What Do We Do Now?" – Anti-Trump Alliance Self-Destructs Within Hours

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By Tyler Durden

Less than 24 hours after the Cruz/Kasich alliance was announced, it already appears to be on the verge of failure. Upon hearing of the deal between Cruz and Kasich, GOP voters and strategists alike were left scratching their heads, wondering how this was all supposed to work. To recap, the two men had their campaigns release statements late last night telling voters of a plan they’d put together that would prevent Donald Trump from winning the necessary delegates required to have an outright victory prior to the convention. Cruz was to focus on Indiana, while Kasich was responsible for Oregon and New Mexico.

Immediately GOP strategists were left wondering how this plan was going to sit with voters, dreading that this would be the latest anti-Trump plan to violently backfire. “I think the Kasich people are now left choosing between two people who they see as unappealing. I have talked to a lot of friends today who are stunned and puzzled and kind of adrift: ‘what do we do now?'” said Mike Murphy, a GOP operative in the state of Indiana.

The Hill also quoted an anonymous Republican Strategist in Indiana who said people were torn between stopping Trump, and asking themselves what has happened to their party that made this circumstance even possible. “I think it’s a bit of an open question as to whether this deal will take. I’ve got people who say, ‘Yes, I will do anything to stop Trump.’ And others who say, ‘What in the world is the party coming to?’ They view Cruz as unsatisfactory as a nominee but Trump as unfathomable.”

And then there was outright frustration at the absurdity of it all. “This election is garbage. I voted early and then they cut a deal a week before election day.” Dave Ober, a Republican state representative in Indiana tweeted.

Not only were strategists left dumbfounded, but apparently so was Kasich. Before the ink was even dry, as it were, Kasich suggested during a campaign stop in Philadelphia that his voters should still vote for him in Indiana, which was one of the places the so-called plan was calling for him to fall back on so Cruz had a chance to win. At a campaign stop in Philadelphia, Kasich saidI’ve never told them not to vote for me. They ought to vote for me.” which no matter how one looks at it is thoroughly confusing considering this is precisely what the so-called alliance urged against.

Not one to let anything slip by without comment, Trump had this to say about the half thought out and frankly laughable attempt at blocking his nomination:

“So they colluded, and, actually, I was happy because it shows how weak they are; it shows how pathetic they are,” the front-running candidate said at a rally in Rhode Island on Monday.

“If you collude in business, or if you collude in the stock market, they put you in jail. But in politics, because it’s a rigged system, because it’s …read more

Source: "What Do We Do Now?" – Anti-Trump Alliance Self-Destructs Within Hours

    

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A Look Inside Europe’s Largest Foreigner "Ghetto"

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By Tyler Durden

On the heels of State Department spokesman John Kirby's renewed proclamation that “US is committed to admitting more refugees,” we thought this brief clip from France's picturesque Mantes La Jolie (in the western suburbs of Paris) – Europe's largest “ghetto” – would be useful…

Here's the postcard…

Le Val-Fourré, the largest housing project in the district, is extremely ghettoized, and is dominated by immigrants from the Maghreb, the majority of whom are Moroccan, and sub-Saharan immigrants.

The friendly local inhabitants – who seem to be integrating into European culture so well – appear to not take kindly to police driving through the middle of their road-blockage, drug-dealing, motorbike-racing, street party… and trouble ensues…

h/t LiveLeak

It is any wonder the police stayed away from Mollenbeek?

* * *

Coming to a 'picturesque city in America' any day now.

…read more

Source: A Look Inside Europe’s Largest Foreigner "Ghetto"

    

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"We Haven’t Seen This Is In Our Lifetimes" – CEO Says "Alberta Is In A Depression"

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By Tyler Durden

Regular readers know that we’ve covered Alberta’s decline at length (refresher here), so there is no need to give much of a backstory other than to say that the situation seems to get worse for the Canadian province as each day passes even as oil has rebounded in the past two months.

Toronto’s “Condo King” Brad Lamb tried to put things into context when he said the situation is “worse than 2008.” However, on Friday we received an even more gloomy (albeit realistic) description of the economic situation in Canada’s energy hub, Alberta. In a very blunt interview with BNN, Murray Mullen the CEO of trucking company Mullen Group, said that the situation has moved well past recession, and should be described as a depression.

“Well, if you’re involved in the oil patch directly, drilling activity or anything like that I think we’ve gone beyond recession and it’s more a depression. The facts are that this latest round of commodity price collapse that happened the first part of this year I think really put the nail in the coffin for the industry.”

“The damage has already been done basically for this year. Even though it seems like the oil price and even natural gas is starting to recover, there was no room for error because commodity prices had fallen so low in 2015, and then when it happened in 2016, and it’s not just crude oil, it’s natural gas also. We’re just kind of trapped in a difficult market dynamic that we haven’t seen in probably most of our lifetimes.

“There’s no investment activity going on below $40, it just goes to zero.”

The fact that Mr. Mullen categorized the situation as a depression isn’t surprising to us: after all that’s how we characterized the economic reality in Alberta for the first time last December in “This Is Canada’s Depression

And while we wait for yet another local shoe to drop (and after soaring crime, surging suicides, and overwhelmed food banks, one wonders just what could be next), we continue to be on the lookout for the number of future bankruptcies that emerge from this space (as he alluded to numerous times throughout his interview). Recall that as as we first reported, Canada’s banks have virtually zero reserves for a worst case scenario.

Because when the already shaking Calgary domino finally falls, that’s when the Bank of Canada will have no choice but to make good on its threat from last year and unleash negative interest rates.

* * *

And just as we hinted, constantly from bad to worse. Moments ago, Bloomberg reported that Moody’s has downgraded Alberta’s credit rating.

  • Moody’s says province will need to increase direct borrowing in order to finance operating deficits for first time in over 20 years
  • Moody’s expects Alberta’s net direct and indirect debt to increase to nearly 17% of GDP in 2018-19 from 7% in 2015-16
  • Outlook negative

"The Men Behind The Curtain Are Being Revealed" – CEO Says Real-World Pricing To Return To Gold & Silver Markets

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Astute observers of financial markets, especially in the precious metals sector, have long argued that small concentrations of major market players have been manipulating asset prices. Last week those suspicions were confirmed when Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s leading financial institutions, not only admitted to regulators that they have been involved in the racket, but that they were prepared to turn over records implicating many of their cohorts in a global scheme to suppress prices.

In his latest interview with SGT Report, straight-shooting Callinex Mines CEO Max Porterfield explains that now that the men behind the curtain are being revealed, asset prices in precious metals, base metals and other commodities will return to more natural pricing mechanisms based on core supply and demand fundamentals.

They are being revealed, most certainly… whether anybody actually takes a fall for it is a whole ‘nother discussion in its own right.. It’s good someone is being held accountable in some form or fashion and at least we understand what we’re dealing with.

… The real world pricing is being seen not only in the precious metals space, but it’s being played out in other base metals as well… Underlying all this manipulation is really the supply demand fundamentals for all these commodities…

Full Interview Via SGT Report:

With the genie now out of the bottle, many of the institutions involved in price manipulation and suppression appear to have backed off for fear of multi-billion dollar class action lawsuits from investors. The direct result, as we have seen just in the last couple of weeks, has been upward price movement in gold and silver.

If you start getting some of the manipulation to come out of the market for fear that people are going to get called out on it, then you can allow the fundamentals to play out.

And according to Porterfield, those fundamentals bode very well for gold, silver and base metals investors who have thus far been pillaged by paper market conspirators:

I think this has signified the start of a new bull market… what we’ve been through, these nice gains… I can tell you right now… I travel frequently to investor hubs in North America and Europe as well… the sentiment is improving quite significantly compared to where it was last November when I was in Zurich where people were very, very negative.

There’s more optimism in the space, particularly in the precious metals space… and in the not-too-distant future in the overall base metals space as well.

I think investors should be aware and be prepare for pullbacks in any bull market and I think that’s healthy for any kind of bull market you’re in… it is a bumpy road no matter what… but there’s definitely a lot more upside ahead of us.

We know that during the bear market in gold, silver and other commodities many companies either slowed their operations or completely shut their doors. This reduction in …read more

Source: "The Men Behind The Curtain Are Being Revealed" – CEO Says Real-World Pricing To Return To Gold & Silver Markets

    

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"A Total Game Changer" – From Over-Population To De-Population

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Hambone's Stuff blog,

Strangely, the world is suffering from two seemingly opposite trends…overpopulation and depopulation in concert. The overpopulation is due to the increased longevity of elderly lifespans vs. depopulation of young populations due to collapsing birthrates. The depopulation is among most under 25yr old populations (except Africa) and among many under 45yr old populations.

So, the old are living decades longer than a generation ago but their adult children are having far fewer children. The economics of this is a complete game changer and is unlike any time previously in the history of mankind. None of the models ever accounted for a shrinking young population absent income, savings, or job opportunity vs. massive growth in the old with a vast majority reliant on government programs in their generally underfunded retirements (apart from a minority of retirees who are wildly “overfunded”). There are literally hundreds of reasons for the longer lifespans and lower birthrates…but that's for another day. This is simply a look at what is and what is likely to be absent a goal-seeked happy ending.

In a short yet economically valid manner, every person is a unit of consumption. The greater the number of people and the greater the purchasing power, the greater the growth in consumption. So, if one wanted to gauge economic growth, (growth in consumption driving economic growth), multiply the annual change in population by purchasing power (wages, savings) per capita. Regarding wage growth, I hold wages flat as from a consumption standpoint, wage growth is basically offset by inflation. Of course, there is another lever beyond this which central banks are feverishly torqueing; substituting the lower interest rates of ZIRP and NIRP to boost consumption from a flagging base of population growth. (There is one more boost to consumption, huge increases in social transfer payments primarily among the advanced economies…but while noted, these are a story for another day.)

THE DETAILS

The chart below is total annual population growth broken down by OECD nations (33 wealthiest nations…representing 1.3 billion people, OECD members), BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, S. Africa…representing 3.4 billion people), and the RoW (Rest of the World…representing about 3 billion people). Takeaways – 1) total annual population growth peaked in 1988 and has been decelerating since falling 13% & now down 12m/yr from peak. 2) Growth has been shifting away from the BRIICS to the RoW.

Below, global annual total population change vs. under 45 annual population change broken down by OECD, BRIICS, and the Rest of World. What should be clear…1) under 45 population growth has fallen by nearly 60% & is down 44m/yr from peak growth. 2) All under 45 population growth (net) is among the poorer nations of the Rest of the World. Growth has shifted from rich to middle to poor nations and from young to old. Those with little income, savings, and/or access to credit can't …read more

Source: "A Total Game Changer" – From Over-Population To De-Population

    

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Bullion Pops & Trannies Drop As S&P Signals “Golden Cross”

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By Tyler Durden

And your post-Doha gains are… gone…

Chinese intervention at the end of their day turned an overnight losing session into a BTFD winner, but it did not take long for selling to begin again in futures, erasing all the post-Doha gains…BUT that was not allowed to stand…

Despite a 50 Dow point vertical spike at 1pmET (2Y auction), US (cash) equities drifted lower all day with each bounce met with fresh selling pressure near VWAP… UNTIL The late-day panic buying instigated by a VIX slam left Nasdaq perfectly 0.0000% for the day!

Dow Transports worst day since March 8th.

With The S&P 500 signaling a “Golden Cross”…

What day would be copmplete without a panic slam of VIX into the close- in this case a desperate attempt to push Dow back to 18k…

The US open once again sparked selling in bonds but Treasury yields only rose 1-2bps on the day (though notably were sold on the day even as stocks were sold)…

The USD Index slipped lower on the day on the heels of EUR and JPY strength…

Friday's huge surge in USDJPY gave way to some profit-taking as Yen strengthened the most in April against the dollar…

And as a reminder – Levered Specs are the shortest USD in 22 months…

Modest USD weakness helped Gold but Crude plummeted on Saudi headlines (and fears over Cushing builds)

Crude slipped back toward pre-Doha levels…

Time for oil to catch down to Oil VIX…

This was gold's best day against silver in 3 weeks…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Bullion Pops & Trannies Drop As S&P Signals “Golden Cross”

    

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Environmentalists win big over fracking pipeline

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New York State rejected the proposed Constitution Pipeline amid pressure from anti-fracking activists over worries about how the natural gas pipeline would impact the environment. …read more

Source: Environmentalists win big over fracking pipeline

    

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1M watched pirated copies of Thrones premiere

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for latest details.

…read more

Source: 1M watched pirated copies of Thrones premiere

    

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"The Damage Could Be Massive" – How Central Banks Trapped The World In Bonds

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By Tyler Durden

Yields on $7.8 trillion of government bonds have been driven below zero by worries over global growth, forcing investors looking for income to flood into debt with maturities of as long as 100 years. Worse still, as Bloomberg reports, central banks’ policy is exacerbating matters, as the unprecedented debt purchases to spur their economies have soaked up supply and left would-be buyers with few options. This has driven the 'duration' – or risk sensitivity – of the bond market to a record high, meaning, as one CIO exclaimed, even with a small increase in rates “the positions are so huge that the damage can be massive… People are complacent.”

Decelerating economic growth worldwide, combined with more aggressive stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, pushed average yields on $48 trillion of debt securities in the BofA Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index to a record-low 1.29 percent this month, compared with 1.38 percent currently.

Such low yields are unnerving some of the most famous names in the bond market.

Gross, who runs the $1.3 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said in a recent tweet that a tiny move in Japanese 30-year government bonds could wipe “out an entire year’s income.”

It won’t take much of a backup to inflict outsize losses.

The effective duration of the global bond market, which is measured in years and determines how much prices are likely to change when interest rates move, surged to an all-time high of 6.84 years in April.

That translates into a 6.84 percent decline in price for every percentage-point increase in yields.

Simply put, a half-percentage point increase would result in a loss of about $1.6 trillion in the global bond market, according to calculations based on data compiled by Bank of America Corp.

This year alone, the danger of owning debt has surged by the most since 2010, raising concerns from heavyweights such as Bill Gross. It’s also left some of the world’s biggest bond funds, including BlackRock Inc. and Allianz Global Investors, at odds over the benefits of buying longer-dated bonds.

“It takes a fairly small move out in rates on the long-end to wipe out your annual return,” said Thomas Wacker, the head of credit of the Chief Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. Longer-maturity debt is “not something we are particularly keen on,” he said.

Investors continuing to buy bonds even when they pay next to nothing suggests deep concern over the state of the global economy. This month, the International Monetary Fund warned the threat of worldwide stagnation was rising because economic expansion has been so tepid for so long. It also chopped its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent in January.

“The price of these bonds increase at an accelerating rate,” said Brian Tomlinson, Frankfurt-based global fixed-income manager at Allianz, which oversees about $500 billion, referring to the market’s longest-term issues. “Economic growth continues to disappoint globally.”

So between the deflationary spiral that historic zombie-reviving central bank …read more

Source: "The Damage Could Be Massive" – How Central Banks Trapped The World In Bonds

    

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Gannett offers $815M to buy LA Times & Tribune

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Gannett wants to buy fellow newspaper owner Tribune Publishing. On Monday, Gannett went public with a bid, saying its initially private entreaties had been rebuffed. …read more

Source: Gannett offers $815M to buy LA Times & Tribune

    

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