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By Tyler Durden

There is little joy for bulls in David Kostin’s latest weekly kickstart, in which the chief Goldman strategist says that “the S&P 500 has reached our 2016 year-end target of 2100. We expect that the index will remain at this level given tepid US GDP growth, a mixed earnings outlook, and elevated valuation. Corporate repurchases are the main source of US equity demand. We forecast S&P 500 gross buybacks will rise by 7% to $600 billion in 2016. S&P 500 cash M&A spending surged 116% last year but we forecast a 40% decline in 2016 to $240 billion, reflecting increased regulatory scrutiny, new tax policies, and political and policy uncertainty.”

With that rather gloomy forecast out of the way, Goldman then goes on to list the four most pressing questions troubling its clients as of this moment, starting with “Where to from here?” As Kostin writes, this “is the question we receive most frequently from investors now that the S&P 500 has reached our year-end 2016 target. After an 11% plunge to start the year, US equities have rebounded by 14% and have now posted a 2% gain YTD. We maintain our forecast that S&P 500 will end the year at 2100, unchanged from the current level.”

Broad “big picture” questions aside, here are the four things Goldman’s clients would like answered asap.

1. Why will US stocks post a flat return through year-end? Mediocre economic growth, a mixed earnings outlook, and high valuation will limit further appreciation. (a) The US economy is growing, albeit at a tepid pace. Our colleagues in US Economics research estimate US GDP growth will average 1.8% in 2016. Weak end demand implies low sales growth and profit margins have been stagnant for the past five years. (b) The earnings outlook is cloudy because, although operating EPS will rise by 9% to $110 per share, adjusted EPS will be flat for the third consecutive year. Negative EPS revisions are likely during the course of the year. (c) Valuation is stretched given the S&P 500 index trades at the 86th percentile of long-term historical valuation based on seven metrics: P/E, EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, PEG ratio, free cash flow yield, cyclically-adjusted P/E, and P/B. Moreover, the median stock in the S&P 500 trades at the 96th percentile of historical valuation.

2. How much do buybacks contribute to the overall demand for shares? Corporate repurchases (net of share issuance) are the main source of net demand for US stocks. We forecast households, foreign investors, and pension funds will all be net sellers of US stocks in 2016.

Our recent report Flow of Funds: Buybacks drive demand, foreigners retreat (April 14, 2016) analyzed the supply and demand for shares and updated our forecasts. Corporate demand for US equities equaled $561 billion in 2015, a 40% jump from the prior year and the second-highest level since 1952 (2007 totaled $721 billion). In contrast, foreign investors sold $103 billion of US stocks in 2015, the lowest level of annual demand in 64 years. China, Canada, …read more

Source: These Are The Four Questions Goldman’s Clients Want Answered

    

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By Tyler Durden

Two days after we posted a note by a commodity trader according to whom “What Is Happening Has Absolutely No Reasonable Explanation” late last night we received another warning from a futures trader, one which is applicable to everyone who also trades futures and may be unfamiliar with the recent changes in Nymex and Globex “price banding.” This is what he said yesterday.

Hi, I’m a daytrader and I read your site almost every day. Something disturbing happened this morning. I bought a nymex copper contract with an attached stop limit and take profit. My stop got rejected by the exchange. I think it was in pending mode. I ignored it and when the market moved up, i moved the stop up. Then the exchange accepted it. My take profit order got hit instead. Then, I shorted an ES. Again, the market rejected my stop limit.

Luckily the market went down so I was able to play around with the stop to see what worked – i moved it within 4 points of the market, the exchange accepted it, and when it reversed, the stop got filled.

I have been attaching stop limits to all my trades forever. They are always initially placed the same percentage away from the entry trade. I did not change anything today. There has never been a problem. Apparently, Globex & Nymex have introduced something called ‘price banding’ and on ES, the band for stop limits is now only 6 points.

That is not far enough away for me and I’m sure it’s the same for many other traders.

The price bands are also apparently dynamic, so if the price moves, the stop which was accepted by the exchange could now become invalid and will not get filled on a reversal. This has major implications, I don’t think I need to explain them to you.

Not to us, but certainly to all those other daytraders who see a sudden spike or dip in the market (or any given commodity), only to have their tight stop threshold triggered and be forced out of the original trade, even as the market immediately returns to its original, pre-momentum ignition level, leading many to scream in powerless fury at their computer screens over a loss that was the result of what may appear to have been a senseless move.

Some additional words of warning from us: whether trading futures or plain vanilla securities with attached stops, all the data is ultimately sold by either internalizers or exchanges to HFTs who pay lots of money to find the critical “pin” points that inflict the most pain and force the biggest market squeezes, either to the up or downside. While this may not be a major issue for long-term investors, day traders should beware as this is the activity that tends to result in violent algo-generated intraday spikes that stop out the most traders – there is nothing more that algos love than market orders, and right …read more

Source: "Something Disturbing Happened" – A Futures Trader Has Some Words Of Warning

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By Tyler Durden

Following his anti-Brexit Op-Ed which sparked much controversy and confusion as to just why the US president was interfering with yet another domestic issue, Obama held a press conference with UK PM David Cameron in which he in no uncertain terms threatened the UK with trade retaliation if the country were to exit the EU.

He said that “it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement but that’s not going to happen anytime soon because our focus is negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done. And the UK is going to be in the back of the queue, not because we don’t have a special relationship but because given the heavy lift on any trade agreement, us having access to a big market with a lot of countries rather than trying to do piecemeal trade agreements is hugely efficient.”

Friday’s full press conference can be watched below:

Incidentally, as reported earlier, thousands of Germans are protesting precisely the kind of “big trade deal” that Obama wants to entice the UK with, as support for the TTIP there has plunged from 55% in 2014 to only 17%. Germany is not alone: support for Obama’s “fair trade” deal has also tumbled in the US, with those supporting it tumbling from 53% to just 18%.

While it is unclear if Obama’s latest diplomatic snafu has hurt the anti-Brexit camp, what is clear is what Obama did the day after. He played golf with David Cameron, perhaps a hint of the “benefits” that any future premier will be deprived of should the democratic UK vote be against remaining in Europe.

It was Obama’s 286th round of golf in office, but the first time that Obama has golfed during an international trip, according to CBS News’ Mark Knoller.

As Reuters reports, Obama played a round of golf with British Prime Minister David Cameron at an exclusive course north of London on Saturday, making time in a busy overseas travel schedule for his favorite weekend pastime. Obama’s motorcade raced 20 miles (32 km) to The Grove after a meeting with the leader of Britain’s opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn.

“The game at The Grove, a resort that is due to host the British Masters tournament later this year, is a sign of the close personal relationship between the two leaders: Obama rarely mixes business with his preferred way to take a break, and almost always golfs with friends and staff.“

Reporters were allowed to watch as Obama, ignoring damp and chilly weather, emerged from the long grass near a duck pond.

“Ooooh!” Obama groaned as he narrowly missed what appeared to be a 12-foot shot.

“Did you see that?” he shouted to reporters. “Robbed!”

There was no official word on the score.

Saturday is golf day for Obama, who usually plays on …read more

Source: One Day After Threatening The UK, Obama Plays Golf With David Cameron

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by InsideSources via Valuewalk.com,

Government watchdogs and outside experts have long warned that Google had unprecedented and unfiltered access to the Obama White House, which has been a major beneficiary of Google’s massive campaign coffers.

Now, for the first time, two key parts of that entangled relationship, the extensive White House visits and revolving door between Google and the Obama administration, have been documented by the Campaign for Accountability and the Intercept, an investigative news outlet.

“It’s a relationship that bears watching,” Anne Weismann, the head of the Campaign for Accountability told the Intercept. Weismann’s group is starting a project that will bring more attention to Google’s role in Washington. Their joint findings are a vivid reminder of Google’s growing influence in Washington, DC.

From the start of his first term until last October, Google officials met in the White House with Obama administration officials once a week on average for a total of 427 visits. More than 180 White House officials attended those meetings. No other public company comes even close to that many White House visits.

(click image for link to interactive version)

A senior Google lobbyist visited the White House 128 times over that time period. Far more than any other lobbyist from major companies.

Close to 250 Google employees or government officials have travelled through the Google/Obama administration revolving door. Either from Google to the government or the reverse. There were 55 cases of Google officials coming to work for the federal government and 197 cases documented of government employees going to work for Google.

(click image for link to interactive version)

The massive increase in access to the upper echelons of the federal government has corresponded with the loosening of Google Inc. and its employees’ campaign contributions and lobbying purse strings. A few years back Google paid virtually no interest in Washington. In 2015, it spent $16.7 million lobbying, according to opensecrets.org, and it gave President Obama more than $800 thousand during his last presidential campaign.

It is still not precisely clear what Google gets in return, but watchdog groups claim it is plenty. Jeff Chester, Executive Director of the Center for Digital Democracy told the Intercept that “Google has been able to thwart regulatory scrutiny in terms of anti-competitive practices, and has played a key role in ensuring that the United States doesn’t protect at all the privacy of its citizens and its consumers.”

…

Read the full story here at The Intercept…

…read more

Source: Towards A ‘Google World Order’?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Police were also vague about the sign, saying only that it related to “social justice.” Bishop said two others who witnessed the shooting told him that it said, “Tax the one percent,” and that he seemed to raise it just before pulling the trigger.

Jim White was at the Capitol Visitor Center when the announcement of the lockdown came over the loudspeaker. He said there was no panic, just chatter about what could be going on outside. His 1:30 p.m. tour went on as scheduled. The only indication that something was amiss: The tour guide kept stretching and extending his talk.

Bernard called the incident “a bit unfortunate,” especially with all the tourists in town to see the cherry blossoms.

Yes, so unfortunate that someone blowing their brains out potentially due to economic serfdom got in the way of cherry blossom selfies.

– From the post: Illinois Man Commits Suicide in Front of U.S. Capitol Holding a “Tax the 1%” Sign

If you’ve lived life on this planet more than a handful of years, you’ve undoubtedly had your fair share of tough times, some of us more so than others. The fact that you’re here today reading this is a testament to your ability to overcome these struggles, and the experiences these hard times have provided you has shaped the person you are today.

For some people, a combination of life circumstances, mental and emotional difficulties, and lack of support from friends and family can lead to suicide. The thought that some people can become so overwhelmed with hopelessness and desperation they take their own lives is a haunting one.

Sadly, it is undeniable that this reality has become more and more prevalent in America as the 21st century has unfolded, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’ve seen this flare up during a decade and a half characterized by a pummeling of the middle class, a decimation of civil liberties, and the entrenchment of a callous and corrupt political and economic oligarchy.

My heart goes out to the families of all those affected by this growing problem, and those who are currently struggling with suicidal thoughts. Although I can’t relate to such thoughts, I can sympathize.

The Washington Post reports:

The U.S. suicide rate has increased sharply since the turn of the century, led by an even greater rise among middle-aged white people, particularly women, according to federal data released Friday.

Last decade’s severe recession, more drug addiction, “gray divorce,” increased social isolation, and even the rise of the Internet and social media may have contributed to the growth in suicide, according to a variety of people who study the issue.

But economic distress — and dashed hopes generally — may underpin some of the increase, particularly for middle-aged white people. The data showed a 1 percent annual increase in suicide between 1999 and 2006 but a 2 percent yearly hike after that, as the economy deteriorated, unemployment skyrocketed and millions lost …read more

Source: US Suicide Rate Soars In 21st Century – Up 80% For Middle-Aged White Women

    

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