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Newsrooms awaited the 100th Pulitzer Prize announcement on Monday. …read more

Source: 100th Pulitzer prizes announced

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By Tyler Durden

It appears the “excuse” for today’s panic-buying spree in crude – a refineries strike in Kuwait affecting supply – has just been demolished:

• KUWAIT OIL CO. SAYS OUTPUT FROM NORTHERN FIELDS BACK TO NORMAL

Now what excuse will there be? Especially as Venezuela confirms production will not slow.

…read more

Source: Crude Crumbles Back Into Red As Kuwait Output Returns To Normal

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The Dow climbed back above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since last July. It’s a pretty sweet milestone considering the Dow collapsed to 15,451 in January amid the market turmoil.

…read more

Source: Dow tops 18,000 for first time since last July

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The elephant’s not even in the room, which is why the 2016 election campaign is such a soap opera. The elephant outside the room is named Discontinuity. That’s perhaps an intimidating word, but it is exactly what the USA is in for. It means that a lot of familiar things come to an end, stop, don’t work the way they are supposed to – beginning, manifestly, with the election process now underway in all its unprecedented bizarreness.

One reason it’s difficult to comprehend discontinuity is because so many operations and institutions of daily life in America have insidiously become rackets, meaning that they are kept going only by dishonest means. If we didn’t lie to ourselves about them, they couldn’t continue.

For instance the automobile racket. Without a solid, solvent middle-class, you can’t sell cars. Americans are used to paying for cars on installment loans. If the middle class is so crippled by prior debt and the disappearance of good-paying jobs that they can’t qualify for car loans, well, the answer is to give them loans anyway, on terms that don’t really pencil out — such as 7-year loans at 0 percent interest for used cars (that will be worth next to nothing long before the loan expires).

This will go on until it can’t, which is what discontinuity is all about. The car companies and the banks (with help from government regulators and political cheerleaders) have created this work-around by treating “sub-prime” car loans the same way they treated sub-prime mortgages: they bundle them into larger packages of bonds called collateralized loan obligations. These, in turn, are sold mainly to big pension fund and insurance companies desperate for “yield” (higher interest) on “safe” investments that ostensibly preserve their principal. The “collateral” amounts to the revenue streams of payments that are sure to stop because the payers are by definition not credit-worthy, meaning it was baked in the cake that they would quit making payments — especially when they go “under water” owing ever more money for junkers that have lost all value.

It’s easy to see how that ends in tears for all concerned parties, but we “buy into it” because there seems to be no other way to a) boost the so-called “consumer” economy and b) keep the matrix of car-dependant suburban sprawl in operation. We took what used to be a fairly sound idea during a now-bygone phase of history, and perverted it to avoid making any difficult but necessary changes in a new phase of history.

Health care is now such a blatant, odious, and ruinous racket that it is a little hard to believe that it hasn’t ignited an outright revolution or, at least, a workplace massacre in some insurance company C-suite. It is a well-known fact that most Americans don’t even have $500 to pay for a car repair. How are they supposed to cope with a $5,000 deductible health insurance incident? Answer: they can’t. Their mental health is destroyed in the process …read more

Source: The Elephant’s Not Even In The Room Yet

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By Tyler Durden

Having already exposed the fakeness of China's most recent trade data (and implicitly its GDP data), we were not entirely stunned by the fact that, as Bloomberg's Tom Orlik reports, China’s growth rates for quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP for the past year don’t match.

So to start with, we have this entirely unsustainable “data”…

That, combined with confirmation that 1Q output was underpinned by an unsustainable resurgence in real estate, tarnishes the newly acquired shine on the country’s economic prospects.

And now, as Bloomberg's Tom Orlik and Fielding Chan expose…

The initial reaction to the 1Q GDP data, published Friday, was a sigh of relief. Growth at 6.7% year on year was in line with expectations and comfortably inside the government’s 6.5-7% target range. If anyone noticed that the normal quarter-on-quarter data was missing from the National Bureau of Statistics release, few thought anything of it.

YoY Versus Accumulated Annual QoQ GDP Growth

h/t @S1moncox

Then, on Saturday, the quarter-on-quarter data was published, and some of the relief turned to consternation. Quarter-on-quarter growth in 1Q was just 1.1% — an annualized growth rate of 4.5%, and the lowest print since the data series became available in 2011. Worse, based on the accumulated quarter-on-quarter data over the last year, annual growth in 1Q was just 6.3% — substantially below the NBS’s 6.7% reading for year-on-year growth.

Explaining the inconsistency between the two data points is tough to do. Accumulated quarter-on-quarter growth over four quarters should add up to year-on-year growth. In the past, it has. The divergence in the 1Q readings might reflect something as simple as difficulties with seasonal adjustment. Even so, against a backdrop of concerns about data reliability, it can only add to skepticism about China’s true growth rate.

As The Economist's Simon Cox sums up:

China's Q1 growth was either 6.7% y/y, 4.5% q/q saar (1.011^4) or 6.3% y/y (1.018*1.018*1.015*1.011)

But then again – in the infamous words of Hillary Clinton – what difference does it make? Now that manipulation is so exposed and unhidden, why worry?

…read more

Source: China’s GDP Growth "Just Doesn’t Add Up"

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By Capitalist Exploits

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Taking a glance at the headlines in Europe, all I see is the world’s “woes” cropping up. Either we’re dealing with cowboys, or the market sentiment is decidedly bearish. I’ll let you be the judge…

• Bloomberg: “Worst Earnings Letdown Since Crisis Adding To Europe Stock Woes”
• Channel NewsAsia: “European Stocks Hammered By Finance Sector Woes”
• MarketWatch: “European Stocks Slump To 3 Month Low As China Woes Deepen”

Certainly, if we were to look for positive news on European equities, we’d be looking for a needle in a haystack.

This is a fertile playground for my good friend and fund manager Brad McFadden. Brad has been in the trenches of the financial markets for over 18 years, spending 10 of those years managing a US$100 million portfolio and earning a 20% annual return on capital during his tenure.

More recently his global macro portfolio more than doubled in value between 2009 and 2015, outperforming the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, which tracks the average performance of hedge fund managers around the world, by 16.42 percentage points.

Today Brad manages the Seraph Asymmetric Opportunities Fund that is focused on profiting from asymmetric opportunities in the currency, bond and public equity markets.

Brad and I recently discussed Europe, currencies and the current market environment. Among other things, Brad shared with me his investment idea to profit from the large scale pessimism in European stocks today. At the same time, his strategy can be employed to synthetically short the euro so you’re killing two birds with one stone.

You can listen to the entire conversation with Brad McFadden here:

Brad will also be sharing his markets insights at our Seraph Global Summit. You can grab one of the remaining few seats for the event here.

– Chris

“See the investment world as an ocean and buy where you get the most value for your money.” – Sir John Templeton

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…read more

Source: How To Profit From Pessimism In Europe

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

For years now, the easiest way to finesse a debate over whether precious metals markets are manipulated has been to say, “well, if they’re not manipulated they’re the only market that isn’t.”

That was unsatisfying, though, because as the big banks got caught scamming their customers on interest rates, mortgage bonds, forex and commodities trades, those markets (presumably) began to operate more-or-less honestly. Gold and silver, meanwhile, kept right on acting strangely, for instance plunging in the middle of the night on no news but massive futures volume, to the detriment of honest investors and traders who naively bet their capital on fundamentals. The (already huge) amount of money thus stolen from gold bugs kept rising.

So it is with relief that fans of honest markets have greeted the news that at least one kind of precious metals manipulation has been exposed:

Deutsche Bank Settles Silver, Gold Price-Manipulation Suits

(Bloomgerg) – Deutsche Bank AG has reached settlements in lawsuits over allegations it manipulated gold and silver prices, lawyers for traders of the commodities said in court filings.

Attorneys for futures contract traders in two private lawsuits said in letters filed Wednesday and Thursday in Manhattan federal court that the bank has executed term sheets and is negotiating final details for the accords.

The German financial firm also agreed to help the plaintiffs pursue similar claims against other banks as part of the settlements, according to the letters. Vincent Briganti and Robert Eisler, attorneys for traders in the silver-fixing lawsuit, said Deutsche Bank will turn over instant messages and other communications to help further their case. Financial terms of the settlements weren’t disclosed.

“In addition to valuable monetary consideration to be paid into a settlement fund, the term sheet also provides for other valuable consideration such as provisions requiring Deutsche Bank’s cooperation in pursuing claims against the remaining defendants,” attorneys Daniel Brockett and Merrill Davidoff said in their letter Thursday in the gold-fixing lawsuit.

Silver and gold futures traders sued groups of banks in 2014 alleging they rigged prices for the precious metals and their derivatives. Silver traders brought claims against Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia and UBS AG. Gold traders additionally sued Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA.

The traders alleged the banks abused their positions of controlling daily silver and gold fixes to reap illegitimate profits from trading and hurting other investors in those markets who use the benchmark in billions of dollars of transactions, according to versions of the complaints filed in 2015. Of those banks, only Deutsche Bank has reached a settlement.

Amanda Williams, a spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment on either accord. Rick Roth, a spokesman for Scotiabank, the operating name for the Bank of Nova Scotia, and HSBC spokesman Robert Sherman also declined to comment. Representatives from UBS, Barclays and Societe Generale didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The silver case is In re: London Silver Fixing Ltd. Antitrust Litigation, 1:14-md-02573. The gold …read more

Source: Is Deutsche Bank’s Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show?

    

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By Tyler Durden

There has been much confusion, at time quite angry, how in the aftermath of the Soros-funded Panama Papers revelations few, if any, prominent U.S. name emerged as a result of the biggest offshore tax leak in history. Now, thanks to McClatchy more U.S. names are finally being revealed and it will probably come as little surprise that many of the newly revealed names have connection to both Bill and Hillary Clinton.

As McClatchy writes, donors to Clinton foundation used the Panamanian law firm for offshores, adding that the connections come from the more than 40 years Bill and Hillary Clinton have spent in public life. Ironically this comes just days after Hillary criticized those exposed in the Panama Papers, accusing them of looking to hide their wealth.

As McClatchy reports, Hillary Clinton recently blasted the hidden financial dealings exposed in the Panama Papers, but she and her husband have multiple connections with people who have used the besieged law firm Mossack Fonseca to establish offshore entities.

Among them are Gabrielle Fialkoff, finance director for Hillary Clinton’s first campaign for the U.S. Senate; Frank Giustra, a Canadian mining magnate who has traveled the globe with Bill Clinton; the Chagoury family, which pledged $1 billion in projects to the Clinton Global Initiative; and Chinese billionaire Ng Lap Seng, who was at the center of a Democratic fund-raising scandal when Bill Clinton was president. Also using the Panamanian law firm was the company founded by the late billionaire investor Marc Rich, an international fugitive when Bill Clinton pardoned him in the final hours of his presidency.

The ties are both recent and decades old, not surprising for the Democratic presidential front-runner and her husband, who have been in public life since the 1970s.

Each is listed in the massive leak of data from Mossack Fonseca, a law firm with expertise in registering offshore companies, which can have legitimate business purposes, but can also be used to evade taxes and launder money. Several heads of state were found in the leak, leading to the departure of the leader of Iceland and investigations in several other countries.

McClatchy Newspapers and about 350 other journalists working under the umbrella of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists have searched an archive containing more than 11.5 million Mossack Fonseca documents, including passports, financial records and emails. After a series of articles earlier this month revealed how business owners and politicians used offshores, authorities raided the law firm’s offices in Panama. The law firm has denied all accusations of wrongdoing.

Hillary Clinton condemned what she called “outrageous tax havens and loopholes that super-rich people across the world are exploiting.”

“Now, some of this behavior is clearly against the law, and everyone who violates the law anywhere should be held accountable,” she said, speaking at the AFL-CIO convention recently. “But it’s also scandalous how …read more

Source: Multiple Clinton Connections Emerge As More "Panama Papers" Names Revealed

    

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Posted April 18th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment"

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By Tyler Durden

Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a “serious blow” to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive. Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:

Barclays analysts including Miswin Mahesh

• Meeting was a “complete failure” in terms of building trust among producers regarding future action; shows how hard it would be to ever coordinate production cuts; Event exposed “political rift” between Saudi Arabia and Iran
• “The uncertainty in the market with regards to the next meeting and the developing geopolitical backdrop with regards to Iran and Saudi Arabia, will continue to lead to oil market volatility”
• Also says that a protracted oil-worker strike in Kuwait would tighten physical oil markets significantly

Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen

• Failure of talks is “serious blow” to sentiment even if freezing would have had little impact on supply/demand balances
• Though prices may slip below $40/bbl in “knee-jerk reaction” Monday, selloff could be mitigated by news of Kuwaiti output losses
• Saudi demands over Iran’s participation in any potential freeze deal “hints at influence from either domestic or regional politics”

Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson

• Saudis can push oil market rebalancing to 2018; Morgan Stanley sees growing risk of higher OPEC supply amid lack of agreement
• Rebalancing seen in 2018 if Saudi Arabia boosts output to >11m b/d as “threatened”

Bloomberg First Word strategist Julian Lee

• Saudi Arabia won’t shed tears over breakdown of talks; Surge in supplies from Iran, Iraq just before meeting gave Saudi Arabia perfect excuse to refuse to freeze its own output
• Saudi Arabia probably didn’t want oil price to go much higher since that might encourage return of higher-cost production

Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin

• Outcome bearish because consensus was for “soft guidance” on a freeze at Jan. levels
• Kuwait oil worker strike is bullish; “can lend further support to the recent strength in Brent and Dubai timespreads”

BMI Research analyst Peter Lee

• While outcome of meeting may sustain negative sentiment, supply/demand fundamentals unchanged
• Meeting’s outcome wasn’t a surprise

JPM’s Early Look at the markets

• The Doha deal collapse really isn’t as notable as its being made out to be given Iran and Libya were never going to participate and of the remaining countries only Saudi Arabia actually has the capacity to increase output (and there aren’t any indications it is planning to do so).
• Meanwhile, a strike in Kuwait (announced Sun) will cut that country’s output by >1MM BPD for the time being.
• The months-long oil rebound has been helped in part by the freeze whispers from OPEC and Russia but the material decline in US production has played just as important a role (and actually while the lack of agreement Sun reflected the widening cold war between Riyadh and Tehran, it was prob. motivated also by a desire to ensure the US shale industry stays disciplined).
• While oil prob. won’t set fresh highs for the time being, …read more

  Source: Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment"

      

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Posted April 18th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

The ‘fakes’ industry is worth $461 billion

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The shady business of ‘fakes’ has ballooned into a global industry worth as much as $461 billion, according to the OECD.

Recent podcasts: Bernie gets the Axe | Blindsided: How ISIS Shook The World | Graham Opposes GOP Leader

…read more

Source: The ‘fakes’ industry is worth $461 billion

    

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Posted April 18th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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