The newsroom of Al Jazeera America was a mix of celebration and somber tears on its final day Tuesday.
Popular: Radical Islam in America | Graham Opposes Republican Leader | Guns in America
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Source: Inside Al Jazeera America on its final day
Source: It Begins: Obama Forgives Student Debt Of 400,000 Americans
By Tyler Durden
Just 24 hours ago
With only sports cars and pickups rising in price in the last 15 months…
and with inventories so extremely high… In New Cars…
And Used Cars… (via WSJ)
Inventories of used cars in good condition are soaring in the U.S., and finance companies and dealers are scrambling to offer leases as a way to make payments affordable for people who don’t qualify for cheap deals on new cars or those looking to save cash.
Wholesale pricing fell during each of those months verus 2015, Manheim Consulting data shows. Manheim estimates used-vehicle supply will hit records in during a three-year period starting in 2016.
Lower used-car prices will eventually dent new-car pricing power, analysts said.
Production slowdowns are inevitable… And as Goldman explains, weakness in auto sales and production could be an unwelcome headache for the manufacturing sector.
We interpret the recent pullback in auto sales as a sign that demand has finally plateaued. Business spending on vehicles has been robust, but pent-up demand from the recession now looks exhausted. Consumer spending on cars and trucks has been flat for two years, despite favorable income trends and access to credit. Auto sales are currently above our estimate of trend demand, and we see the risks to sales as skewed to the downside.
Sales of light vehicles declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) of 16.5 million units last month, in contrast to consensus expectations for a roughly steady result of 17.5m. The downside surprise of one million units was the largest since 2008, and raises questions about whether the robust trend in vehicle sales is finally cooling off. Seasonal factors may have played a role: using an alternative (but standard) seasonal adjustment technique makes the recent decline look less dramatic, and we find some evidence that an early Easter can depress sales activity in March (Exhibit 1). But beyond these technicalities, we would read the latest data as suggesting that auto demand has now plateaued.
In earlier analysis, we argued that US vehicle sales would likely normalize at 14-15m units per year, based on demographic changes and other secular trends (see shaded area in Exhibit 1). However, sales can run above this level for some time—as they have in recent years—as consumers and firms exhaust pent-up demand from the recession. We think this process is now running its course, and the medium-term risks to auto sales are therefore skewed to the downside.
Household spending on new motor vehicles has already flattened out, despite solid fundamentals…
Weakness in auto sales and production could be an unwelcome headache for the manufacturing sector. Growth in auto output has accounted for 40% of the increase in manufacturing production since January 2012, …read more
Source: Used-Car Inventories Surge To Record Highs As Goldman Fears "Spillovers From Demand Plateau"
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by
GDPNow History
The above from Sufficient Momentum (For a Recession).
Current Scorecard
I commend the New York Fed for providing much needed entertainment value. Any other regions want to get in on the act?
Source: Fed vs. Fed: New York Fed To Issue Its Own GDP Nowcast; Atlanta Fed Too Pessimistic?
By Tyler Durden
Amid gold's best start to a year since 1974, options traders continue to bet on more gains.
Despite the near 17% gains in 2016, put options (bearish bets) have been cheaper than bullish bets (calls) since January 14th.. and options holders own more bullishly biased options overall…
As Bloomberg notes this is the longest streak of bullish “skew” since June 2009, after which gold took off from $900 to $1900.
And most notably, the “excess” skew has been wrung out, just as it did in mid-2009, providing considerably less “short-squeeze” ammo for any speculative downswing attack.
Charts: Bloomberg
Source: Gold Options Traders Extend Longest Bullish Streak Since 2009
‘We need equal pay and we need it now,’ actress Patricia Arquette told CNN’s Paula Newton on National Equal Pay Day.
Popular: Radical Islam in America | Graham Opposes Republican Leader | Guns in America
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Source: Patricia Arquette: We need equal pay now
Even when a woman does ask the boss for a raise, experts say there are gender differences that can work against them. …read more
Source: How to ask your boss for a raise
By Tyler Durden
Following last week's 'biggest inventrory draw in 3 months', expctations were for a 1mm build this week, so when API reported a huge 6.2mm build. Perhaps slightly offsetting this surge is a 1.93mm draw at Cushing (after Genscape forecast a 1mm draw at Cushing this week and expectations were for a 800k draw). After a manic buying day in WTI, oil prices are plunging after hours…
API:
Crude stabilized from its manic ramp after NYMEX closed and then ramped into the API data before plunging on the huge build…
Charts: Bloomberg
Source: Oil Plunges After Surprisingly Large Inventory Build
By Tyler Durden
So a done deal became “hope for a deal” for a freeze at record production levels amid The IMF slashing global growth (and thus demand) expectations… and this happened…NOTE – all momentum faded when NYMEX closed
Kinda makes you wonder…
The 2nd biggest short-squeeze in 4 months smashed “Most Shorted” stocks to their 2016 highs…
As the early “deal” and late “hope” for a deal double-fisted shorts…
The initial equity ramp took us to the edge of yesterday afternoon's decline. Then the late day “hope” headline sent us above yesterday's highs… only to run stops and fade in the last hour… 2nd day in a row 1500ET saw notable selling hit
Nasdaq modestly underperformed on the day but everyting held green (S&P green YTD)…
Despite the late-day weakness, Energy massively outperformed its peers today…
Treasury yields surged today in lockstep across the curve…
The USD Index trod water today as strong commodity currencies offset JPY weakness…
Commodities all gained (even gold inched higher) as Silver soared again. Cruide and Copper loved hope of a deal…
Finally, WTI Crude did NOT break above its 200DMA as some suggested (who need better sources for their continuous futures data). This close above $42 was the highest since Dec 2015…
But while all eyes were on Crude, Silver surged to its highest in 6 months…
Charts: Bloomberg
Source: Doha Deal "Hope" Sparks Biggest Stock Short-Squeeze In 2 Months
Oil prices reached a new 2016 high Tuesday on rumors that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal to freeze oil output. …read more
Source: Oil hits new 2016 high
Welcome to Esh Carmel Blog.
