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By Tyler Durden

Lately being a bear has meant sharing quite a crowded field. First it was JPMorgan, which not only said to sell any rallies, but three weeks ago said it had gone “

With last week’s extension, the SPX has reached the upper end of our suggested 2000/2050 late March/early April target range, and with this move the technical in the US has obviously not changed. The February/March rebound was nearly vertical, which is not sustainable. On the indicator side we now have exactly the same setup as in early February but just the other way around. Looking at our daily trend work, we highlighted the US market siting in the most aggressively oversold position since its 2008 panic low and it was one of our key arguments for anticipating a significant and longer lasting rally. With last week’s extension our daily trend work has reached its most overbought position since 2009. Together with our weekly momentum reaching overbought extremes we have a relatively high likelihood of seeing the market move into an important medium-term top followed by a significant setback. Even if our big picture market view (US and global equity markets are in a cyclical bear market that we expect to continue into Q1 2017) proves to be too bearish, with such an indicator setup we should see the US market minimum ahead of a multi-week consolidation pattern, where we should see higher volatility and therefore a significant pullback.

Conclusion: The US market is extremely overbought, and from a cyclical standpoint the SPX is trading in the time window of our late March/early April top projection. In this context, we see the US market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper/later Q2. On the upside, the SPX has resistance at 2050 and in case of further overshooting we can see 2075/2080. A re-break below 2024 would be initially negative. A break of 2005 would imply that a more important tactical top is forming. From a cyclical aspect we see an initial pullback into first week April where we expect the SPX to test 2000/1970. We reiterate our last week’s call and would use strength to sell instead of chasing the market on the upside.

Will the Riener-Muller duo make it 4 out of 4 in recent predictions? Keep an eye on the S&P: if we take out the 2034 support level which pushes the market back to red for the year, the answer will be a redounding yes.

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Source: One Of The Most Accurate Forecasters Of 2016: “S&P Is The Most Overbought Since 2009: Sell!”

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Leaders faced with unrest, rising demands and dwindling coffers always debauch their currency as the politically expedient “solution.”

Whatever you think of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, he is one of the few public voices identifying runaway entitlement costs as a structural threat to the economy and nation. We can summarize Greenspan's comments very succinctly: there is no free lunch. The more money that is siphoned off for entitlements, the less there is for investment needed to maintain productivity gains that are the foundation of future income generation: Greenspan: Worried About Inflation, Says “Entitlements Crowding Out Investment, Productivity is Dead” (via Mish)

Many people look to the rising costs of the U.S. military as the structural problem, and they have a point: there is no upper limit on military spending, and the demands (by the civilian leadership of the nation) on the services and the Pentagon's demands for new weaponry are constantly pushing budgets higher.

But the truth is entitlement spending now dwarfs military spending: entitlements are more than $1.75 trillion, half of all Federal spending, while the Pentagon, VA, etc. costs around $700 billion annually.

We have a model for what happens when military and social welfare spending exceed the state's resources to pay the rising costs: the state/empire collapses. The Western Roman Empire offers an excellent example of this dynamic.

As pressures along the Empire's borders rose, Rome did not have enough tax revenues to fully fund the army. Hired mercenaries had become a significant part of the Roman army, and if they weren't paid, then the spoils of war became their default pay.

This erosion of steady pay also eroded the troops' loyalty to Rome; their loyalties switched to their commanders, who often decided to take his loyal army to Italy and declare himself Emperor.

Meanwhile, the costs of free bread and other foodstuffs and public entertainments (bread and circuses) exhausted the Imperial coffers. Originally intended to alleviate the suffering of the poor, the free bread program had expanded from feeding 40,000 citizens of Rome in 71 B.C. to 320,000 under Augustus–roughly one-third of the entire populace of Rome. (The free bread was by then augmented by free cooking oil and other goodies.)

(Source: page 85, Food in History)

Costly entertainments such as bloody gladiator fights that had once been staged on rare public holidays were commonplace by the late Empire, another drain on the state coffers.

Like all states under financial pressure, the Empire devalued its currency as a means of stretching sagging resources. A measure of wheat that cost 6 drachmas in the first century A.D. cost two million drachmas after 344 A.D.

How's that for inflation?

Today, we face the same crunch: the costs of entitlements are outracing the economy's ability to fund them. Entitlements already consume half the federal budget:

This is up from 20% in 1970. Going forward, they will only consumer more.

In …read more

Source: Recipe For Collapse: Rising Military & Social Welfare Spending

    

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