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By Tyler Durden

“You get nothing…”

This was not the day many had planned on…After the initial “as expected” move, everything went pear-shaped for the central planners when Draghi committed the ultimate sin – closing an open-ended monetary policy…

The USD was hammered, gold surged, and stocks and oil gave up gains…

Then The PPT stepped in to save the world, ramped us back to VWAP…

And Dow back to 17,000…unfriggingbelievable!!

* * *

Surveying some of the damage (that was unable to benefit from US manipulation)…

Let's start with the worst…EURUSD screamed almost 400 pips off the post-Draghi lows…

As Bespoke notes, today is the largest positive reversal (3.2%) off an intraday decline of at least 1% in the history of the Euro.

We could show all kinds of epic fail European markets, but Italian banks – with their exploding NPLs – are the best example. After smashing to a halt limit-up, they fell back to earth to practically unchanged by the close…

* * *

After yesterday's idiotic ramp to perfectly end Dow at 17000, things went a little bit turbo today…until the late-day re-emergence of America's own National Team…

TS FUTS

The plunge stalled when Europe closed – went sideways – then ripped higher to unch as NYMEX closed…

Look at the utter panic VIX slams to get Dow back to 17,000 (just like yesterday)…

As Shorts were once again squeezed…

Treasury yields all rose on the day (with the belly underperforming and 30Y outperforming after a strong auction all the way back to yields lower on the week)…

Dragged higher in yield by Bund weakness (as Draghi disappointed expectations for the rate cut)

Early in the day, the TSY yield curve collapsed to its lowest since Dec 2008…

Not boding well for the Dimon Bottom?

The USD Index was monkey-hammered as EURUSD's initial drop exploded into an avalanche of short-covering… The biggest daily drop in over a month..

Gold ansd Silver outperrformed on the day as crude and copper slipped lower…

Gold recovers its quintuple whammy slams…

<a target=_blank rel="nofollow" …read more

Source: Gold Soars As Draghi "Dud" Unleashes Chaos In Bonds, Stocks, & FX

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Jobs are still being created in the United Arab Emirates but recent graduates say the oil crash is making it harder for them to find secure, well-paid employment.

…read more

Source: Oil crash leaves Gulf grads panicked and confused

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By Tyler Durden

…read more

Source: China Is Now In Control Of Global Silver Prices

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By Tyler Durden

And so things are back to normal: following yesterday’s unexpectedly poor 10 Year auction, which tailed notably while the bid to cover dipped despite it trading at the -3.00% fails rate in repo, moments ago the Treasury sold $12 billion in a 30Y reopening of Cusip RQ3, at a yield of 2.72%, stopping through the 2.731% When Issued by 1.1 bps, the most since mid-2015.

This was explainable considering the repo rate ahead of today’s auction was a whopping -1.50%, which as the chart below shows, was the lowest on record.

The internals of the auction were solid, with the Bid to Cover rising from 2.50 to 2.72, if modestly below the 12 MTA. Indirects were predictably higher, printing at 60.9%, the highest since December, while Directs of 12% were the highest since October, leaving just 27% to the Dealers, the smallest allocation since December.

All in all a very solid auction which again shows that despite the sell off in the secondary market, when central banks can’t park equities in stocks, they will go to Treasurys, although judging by the move in gold, they may be starting to diversify.

…read more

Source: Post-Draghi Panic Leads To Bidding Scramble For 30 Year Paper

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By Tyler Durden

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 1: Rig counts in US (oil-directed) and Saudi Arabia.

Figure 1 shows the rig counts in Saudi Arabia and the United States from 2009 to last week. (footnote: The U.S. count is oil-directed rigs while it is the total rig count in Saudi Arabia which produces mainly associated gas and exports none.) The data is shown on two different scales in such a way that the curves are equivalent during 2012 and 2013 as this was a relatively stable baseline with Saudi running 80 to 85 rigs, and 1300 to 1400 were drilling for oil in the US. What is most interesting are the actions since then.

As the shale oil revolution had sustained momentum at prices near $100 /bbl, Saudi Arabia began the second most rapid rig count expansion in its history starting in late 2013. During 2014, while the potential for oversupply was clearly known and even as prices turned sharply down in the latter half of the year, Saudi continued ramping up its rig count.

In late November 2014, the semi-annual OPEC meeting turned dissentious, and the group closed without even the pretense of a target production volume. Starting in November and continuing through March, the Saudi rig count grew in its third largest expansion in history, increasing 15 percent in four months.

At the same time, U.S. rig count was falling. Slowly at first in 2014, the rig count responded modestly to reductions in price. After the November 2014 OPEC meeting, though, the U.S. rig count began its freefall, retracing the path of the 2008 downturn. The contrast shows boldly in Figure 1. As the U.S. imploded, Saudi Arabia was ramping up.

For comparison, Saudi Arabia had a couple of times in history, though not always, reduced its rig count as the U.S. rig count dropped. Most notably, Saudi Arabia reduced then stabilized its rig count following its price war of 1986. For most of the 1990s and early 2000s the Saudi rig count tracked the same kind of pattern as the oil-directed rigs in the U.S. During the collapse of 2008-2009, Saudi Arabia again curtailed its rig count.

Of course, rig count alone doesn't mean nearly as much in the Saudi command-based supply; rig count reveals more about intent and planning than current action. The real test is how the presumed increased capacity is used. Figure 2 shows that behavior, tracing Saudi production alongside oil prices. The market, presumably watching the implosion of rig count, responded by lifting WTI oil prices back into the $60s/bbl, and Saudi Arabia then responded by promptly increasing its supply, sending prices back down again. Even as prices slowly descended close to inflation-adjusted, long-term lows, the Saudi rig count slowly ramped up, and moderated its production only somewhat.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 2: Oil production by Saudi Arabia and WTI spot market price as a proxy for world oil prices.

Talk of a consensus action to freeze production was rumored in January, and …read more

Source: Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

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By Tyler Durden

The market’s volatile swing are clearly too much for the central banker-incubating hedge fund known as Goldman Sachs, because

… moments ago the same Goldman announced that:

“the recent relief rally might be short-lived, especially with oil prices now at the upper end of our commodities team’s forecast range for 1H 2016.“

and adding that “we make no changes to our asset allocation at this stage as the relief rally has been too fast, in our view. We still do not feel comfortable taking more risk in equities until valuation or growth becomes more attractive.“

Gartman flip-flopping within 3 days is normal, but Goldman? As for the “relief rally” being short-lived, it might be even shorter if Goldman’s various divisions for some reason are unable to communicate with each other on how to best fleece muppets.

This is what else Goldman thinks in its latest “recommendation”:

We make no changes to our asset allocation at this stage as the relief rally has been too fast, in our view. We still do not feel comfortable taking more risk in equities until valuation or growth becomes more attractive. Although we believe the market has been too pessimistic, we think a key driver of the relief has been higher oil prices. With oil at the upper end of our commodities team’s forecast range for 1H 2016, it could drive further volatility as we do not believe oil weakness is necessarily over. We still believe credit remains attractive, particularly in Europe, where further ECB easing and good credit fundamentals remain supportive. Although US high yield has rallied recently, over the near term we remain Neutral US HY within credit. Despite seeing fundamental value in US HY spread levels, downside risk to oil makes us tactically cautious (see Global Markets Daily: Oil and HY redux, March 8, 2016). We remain Underweight bonds given the relatively low level of yields, potential for reflation, and our economists’ expectation that the Fed rate hike cycle continues in June. We retain our relative preference for German Bunds over US Treasuries as policy divergence should play out over the coming months and drive the Treasury-Bund rate differential significantly wider.

Some more observations:

Volatility potential in a central bank filled month…should not be too unfamiliar given past moves
The ECB meets this Thursday (March 10), with the BoJ and Fed meeting next week…. Measuring how frequent extreme asset price movements have been in the past, the figure on the left below plots the average number of days over the prior 12 months with return moves (positive or negative) of 3 standard deviations or more by asset class, using rolling 1-year standard deviations. Since 1986, no period besides 2008-09 has had a larger number of relatively extreme asset price movements than we have experienced recently. This has been particularly true for the 10-year government bond and …read more

Source: Goldman Turns Bearish: "Relief Rally Was Too Fast, We Do Not Feel Comfortable Taking More Risk"

    

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