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Source: THe JeSTeR…

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By Tyler Durden

There is a global push by lawmakers to eliminate the use of physical cash around the world. This movement is often referred to as “The War on Cash”, and there are three major players involved:

1. The Initiators

Who? Governments, central banks.

Why? The elimination of cash will make it easier to track all types of transactions – including those made by criminals.

2. The Enemy

Who? Criminals, terrorists

Why? Large denominations of bank notes make illegal transactions easier to perform, and increase anonymity.

3. The Crossfire

Who? Citizens

Why? The coercive elimination of physical cash will have potential repercussions on the economy and social liberties.

Is Cash Still King?

Cash has always been king – but starting in the late 1990s, the convenience of new technologies have helped make non-cash transactions to become more viable:

• Online banking
• Smartphones
• Payment technologies
• Encryption

By 2015, there were 426 billion cashless transactions worldwide – a 50% increase from five years before.

And today, there are multiple ways to pay digitally, including:

• Online banking (Visa, Mastercard, Interac)
• Smartphones (Apple Pay)
• Intermediaries ( Paypal , Square)
• Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin)

The First Shots Fired

The success of these new technologies have prompted lawmakers to posit that all transactions should now be digital.

Here is their case for a cashless society:

Removing high denominations of bills from circulation makes it harder for terrorists, drug dealers, money launderers, and tax evaders.

• $1 million in $100 bills weighs only one kilogram (2.2 lbs).
• Criminals move $2 trillion per year around the world each year.
• The U.S. $100 bill is the most popular note in the world, with 10 billion of them in circulation.

This also gives regulators more control over the economy.

• More traceable money means higher tax revenues.
• It means there is a third-party for all transactions.
• Central banks can dictate interest rates that encourage (or discourage) spending to try to manage inflation. This includes ZIRP or NIRP policies.

Cashless transactions are faster and more efficient.

• Banks would incur less costs by not having to handle cash.
• It also makes compliance and reporting easier.
• The “burden” of cash can be up to 1.5% of GDP, according to some experts.

But for this to be possible, they say that cash – especially large denomination bills – must be eliminated. After all, cash is still used for about 85% of all transactions worldwide.

A Declaration of War

Governments and central banks have moved swiftly in dozens of countries to start eliminating cash.

Some key examples of this? Australia, Singapore, Venezuela, the U.S., and the European Central Bank have all eliminated (or have proposed to eliminate) high denomination notes. Other countries like France, Sweden and Greece have targeted adding restrictions on the size of cash transactions, reducing the amount of ATMs in the countryside, or limiting the amount of cash that can be held outside of the banking system. Finally, some countries have taken things a full step further – South Korea aims to eliminate paper currency in its entirety by 2020.

But right now, the “War on Cash” can’t be mentioned without invoking images of day-long lineups in India. In November 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi demonetized 500 …read more

Source: Visualizing The Global War On Cash

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By Tyler Durden

When it comes to the future of bitcoin, the “holy grail” has emerged as becoming the first to have a bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC.

Over three years ago, in 2013, the company of the Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, Winklevoss Capital Management LLC, launched the first proposed bitcoin ETF, the Winklevoss Investment Trust, looking to trade on the HFT-dominated BATS exchange. The SEC is expected to make a decision on it by March. A second group, SolidX Partners followed last July seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, SolidX Bitcoin Trust, which also would be listed on the NYSE.

Then on Friday, Grayscale Investments, a unit of Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group filed with the SEC to list its own Bitcoin Investment Trust on the New York Stock Exchange: as with the previous two attempts, the fund hopes to get SEC approval to expand the audience for the virtual currency. Initially, the trust will seek to launch with $500 million, the filing said, though the target is subject to change. At Dec. 31, it had about 1.8 million shares outstanding. Based on a net asset value of $89.39 a share, its assets under management totaled $164.2 million.

As the WSJ notes, “Grayscale’s Bitcoin Investment Trust, first launched in 2013, already trades on OTC Markets Group Inc.’s over-the-counter exchange, OTCQX. With the new filing if approved, the trust would operate as a traditional ETF, meaning that specialized traders would create and retire shares based on demand.”

Two Wall Street firms, KCG Holdings Inc. and Wedbush Securities Inc., are in discussions to serve as authorized participants, according to the filing. Additionally, the fund’s trustee will be Delaware Trust Co., and the transfer agent will be Bank of New York Mellon Corp., based on the filing.

The goal of a bitcoin-based ETF is to offer an product that would be easier for investors to access and would mute at least some of bitcoin’s volatility, although it would hardly eliminate all of it, which would still make it a riskier investment than most other ETFs.

More importantly, approval “could prove an early test for how an SEC run by a Donald Trump appointee will greet innovations that may raise investor-protection or other market-structure issues.” Furthermore, the benefits of being first on a major exchange could be big, assuming that bitcoin does manage to establish itself as a viable asset class. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF launched Nov. 18, 2004, has $31 billion in assets. The iShares Gold Trust ETF launched Jan. 21, 2005, has $7.7 billion in assets. Gold, a commodity not backed by any particular government, appeals to investors for some of the same reasons as bitcoin… even if many physical hard-core “gold-stacker” fans mock both the concept of a paper gold representing their physical holdings, while relentlessly ridiculing the idea that “digital money” contained in a server somewhere, is in any way safe (following recent dramatic breaches of a Chinese bitcoin exchange, they have a point).

Earlier this month, Needham analyst Spencer Bogart wrote …read more

Source: Why A Bitcoin ETF May Not Be Coming Any Time Soon

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President Donald Trump started and finished a speech he gave at the CIA headquarters Saturday afternoon by criticizing the “dishonest media.” Several of the things he said were inaccurate. …read more

Source: Trump says he has "running war" with media

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By Tyler Durden

Some observations on recent negative trends in productivity, employment mismatch, and labor training and education from the increasingly more bearish David Rosenberg, who notes that the Trump’s proposed policies may end up helping growth on the margins, but fail to focus on what is really important, making tens of millions of US workers competitive and qualified for today’s jobs market.

From Breakast with Rosie, via Gluskin Sheff

I don’t think we have a productivity problem — in fact, the demise of productivity is vastly overstated and that is because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is likely vastly overstating labor input, and I’m talking here about how hours worked are estimated.

But the real travesty, and what I think deserves top priority (but I don’t see it), is that we have, in addition to 7.5 million officially unemployed (a number that is closer to 15 million when all the hidden unemployment is accounted for), 23.5 million Americans aged 25-to-54 who reside outside the confines of the labor force. And at a time when job openings are at record highs.

The problem is that unqualified applicants for these openings also are at a record high. The number of jobs available that are not being filled because the skill set is absent is at an unprecedented level — and this was an overriding theme in the latest edition of the Fed’s Beige Book.

The question is what is in the policy playbook to redress this situation?

What we need is a policy playbook that makes education, apprenticeship and training a major priority — the one plank that I had hoped would be yanked out of Bernie Sanders’ platform.

While deregulation and simplifying the tax code obviously are constructive segments of the Trump plan, they are not the most important obstacles in the way of growth. Neither is globalization.

Even the most ardent ”supply-sider” would admit that labor input is key to the outlook and this should really be at the top of the agenda — closing the widening and unprecedented gap between job openings and new hiring. There simply is no replacement for excellent education achievement with respect to maximizing labor productivity.

I see scant attention being paid to this file — surely this is more important than U.S. involvement in Brexit or trying to play a role in breaking up the European Union, don’t you think?

…read more

Source: David Rosenberg: "The Travesty Is We Have 23.5 Million Americans Aged 25-To-54 Outside The Labor Force"

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By Tyler Durden

Following German media's outcry that “the demons have been unchained”, Asian media decried President Trump's isolationist policies, fearing they will chill the global economy and sow widespread international discord, as “the reality show has become reality,” warning the world was now in “unpredictable territory… spreading unease, division, and conflict throughout the world.”

While perhaps not as entirely hysterical as German media's 'opinion'…

That was no presidential speech; that was a veritable declaration of war. Threatening in tone. Cold and calculating in logic. Change minus the hope. Donald Trump used the traditional Inauguration Day address to settle a score with the U.S. political establishment going back decades. With four ex-presidents sitting a few feet behind him, the 45th president delivered a populist manifesto.

The negativity was ubiquitous across AsiaPac nations' media outlets… (as Reuters reports)

In Japan, one of Washington's oldest and staunchest Asian allies, newspapers across the political spectrum criticised the new administration, with more than one saying the world was now in “unpredictable territory.”

“Has there ever been a new U.S. administration that began by spreading unease, not expectations, throughout the world?” said the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, adding that Trump appeared ready to take both alliances and global norms lightly if they didn't benefit the United States.

The liberal Asahi Shimbun went further and said Trump, who called on allies like Japan and South Korea to shoulder a greater share of defense costs or face the possible withdrawal of U.S. troops, posed a risk to the freer global order born after World War Two and the Cold War.

“Will the unpredictable Trump whirlwind cross the U.S. borders to spread division and conflict? The new master of the White House must realise the heavy responsibility that accompanies his words and actions”, it said.

State media in China, accused of stealing U.S. jobs during Trump's campaign, said they hoped his government understood the importance of relations with China but that Beijing should also brace for the worst.

“What's crucial is to control and manage disputes and find a way to resolve them,” said the overseas edition of the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily.

A less-engaged Washington could also lead to shifting alliances and more reliance on regional networks.

“India must not only prepare for a more protectionist America, but also prepare of a United States that does not plan to mess around with other people's affairs or squander blood and treasure in the name of promoting democratic values,” wrote policy analyst C. Raja Mohan, head of Carnegie India, in the Indian Express.

Worry about friction between the two superpowers loomed over many in the region.

“As an exporting nation reliant on both China and the U.S., we would suffer from greater U.S. protectionism and any trade war,” said the Sydney Morning Herald.

“We may have to negotiate our way through a new world order not just regarding trade and China but also climate, Russia and regional security given Trump's lack of interest in the U.S. playing the role of sheriff.”

A few said they expected U.S. political …read more

Source: Asian Media Warns Of Conflict, Economic Turmoil Under "Trump World Order"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Oxfam, the leftwing NGO devoted to poverty relief has released a new report blaming poverty in wealth inequality. In other words, its central claim is that the existence of very wealthy people creates poverty.

The report is largely just an extended op-ed that asserts that the existence of some very wealthy people is the cause of poverty in the world. Notable buzzwords and phrases include “trickle down,” “obscene levels of inequality,” and “neoliberalism.”

The “solution” to the alleged problem, which should surprise no one, is a list of taxes that should be either introduced or raised significantly, including higher income taxes, “a tax on financial transactions,” a “global wealth tax,” and a so-called “anonymous wealth tax.”

These taxes, we are told, will put an end to the poverty-causing inequality that now is a global crisis.

But there's a problem for Oxfam in this data. The report never actually demonstrates that inequality causes poverty, or how it does it. It does claim that many wealthy people are getting richer faster than poor people. As Marketwatch sums up:

Oxfam said new data from its report “An Economy for the 99%,” shows that between 1988 and 2011, the incomes of the poorest 10% rose by just $3 a year, while incomes of the richest 1% increased 182 times that much. In 2015, the world’s richest 1% held on to their share of global wealth, owning vastly more than the other 99%, said the charity.

Even this statement is questionable, as Felix Salmon points out at Fusion. The way the report calculates wealth has a tenuous relationship with reality:

The result is that if you use Oxfam’s methodology, my niece, with 50 cents in pocket money, has more wealth than the bottom 40% of the world’s population combined. As do I, and as do you, most likely, assuming your net worth is positive. You don’t need to find eight super-wealthy billionaires to arrive at a shocking wealth statistic; you can take just about anybody.

Economist Mateusz Machaj adds at mises.org:

[I]f you put 30 dollars into your bank account, does it mean that you caused extreme poverty for 10% of the world population? This is what Oxfam is implying in its biased pseudo-economic analysis.

But, let's just a for minute accept Oxfam's central claim that the rich are getting rich faster than the poor. This in itself tells us something. It used to be that we were told “the rich get richer while the poor get poorer.”

Note, however that Oxfam does not claim this. They can't claim this because the poor are not getting poorer.

In fact, the the global poor have more access to basic necessities and wealth than ever before.

Global Poverty Is In Decline

But, as this data shows, global poverty has been declining for decades:

Moreover, given that “extreme poverty” as defined by the World Bank no longer even exists in the wealthy “global north,” this …read more

Source: Inequality Doesn’t Create Poverty

    

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Posted January 21st, 2017 in Uncategorized.