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By Tyler Durden

Global shares were mixed, equity futures, the dollar and crude rose as investors focused their attention on today’s inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president. While the early tone is well bid, some traders anticipate a volatile session, with speculation that a bout of “sell the inauguration” could cap the aging Trump rally, which started with his inauguration.

Despite last night’s Yellen speech which was more dovish than her remarks just 24 hours earlier, and which suggested that the US economy is “not overheating”, the dollar managed to rebound from overnight losses and was trading 0.2% higher this morning. The early gains came after China reported its first economic expansion in 2 years (conveniently with president Xi in Davos) with GDP rising to 6.8% after quarters of decline.

However for the year, China’s GDP growth declined to the slowest pace in 26 years, despite a record debt load and record weak Yuan.

But it will be all about Trump today: tens of thousands of law enforcement officers and miles of barriers were in place in Washington D.C., as officials braced for hundreds of thousands of people planning to celebrate or protest the inauguration of Trump. The inauguration is “definitely a big moment for the markets,” said Neil Mellor, a London-based currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “We could get more clues about what Trump is planning today. If he ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions.”

“All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump’s inauguration speech,” Morgan Stanley’s Hans Redeker wrote in a note. “The more ‘Presidential’ this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets.”

“[Trump is] likely to talk about job creation and unifying the U.S. and we may have to wait a bit longer for details on economic measures,” said Natixis fixed income strategist Cyril Regnat.

“It’s clear that investors have reached a level where they are prepared to wait and see what the Trump administration has to offer,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Ltd. in Sydney.

Trump’s inauguration ceremony “will be followed by a speech that will be carefully decoded by those looking for signs of things to come in the new U.S. administration, an exercise that amounts to political astrology in an era characterized by a shakeup of the old rules of the game,” Citigroup’s chief global political analyst Tina Fordham wrote in note.

As Bloomberg notes, rallies in the dollar and equities are easing this week before Trump is sworn in as the 45th American president, with investors growing anxious for indications the administration will follow through on pro-growth campaign promises. Billionaire investor George Soros said the euphoria among stock investors since Trump’s victory will end as uncertainty takes over. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has churned in its tightest range ever over the past month.

European stocks opened weaker before recouping some losses to trade flat. Trading was …read more

Source: S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

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Wayne Barrett, a New York City muckraker who burnished his credentials with unsparing reporting on Donald Trump, died Thursday. He was 71. …read more

Source: Wayne Barrett, Trump chronicler, dies at 71

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

With the OPEC production deal holding, at least for the moment, questions have now arisen over how prospects look for the cartel’s biggest producer. It’s been a strange few years for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as its endured budget deficits for the first time in its modern history, stagnation in oil prices and rising competition from other OPEC members and the American shale boom. Recently, talk has centered on the Saudi monarchy’s glimpse of the future: the Vision 2030 plan, whereby it hopes to diversify its economy and end its dependence on the mercurial oil and gas market. But can the world’s biggest oil producer and OPEC’s de facto leader pull it off?

In the short term, Riyadh will continue to feel the pain of lower-than-normal oil prices. The growth outlook for Saudi Arabia has been slashed, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on January 16 that the world’s largest oil producer would see its GDP grow by only 0.4 percent in 2017. The estimate comes on the basis of the continued low price of oil, but more importantly on the country’s slashed oil production: as a result of the recent OPEC production deal, Saudi Arabia has agreed to keep its production level at or below 10 million bpd. This has resulted in a cut in its growth outlook, down from 2 percent in October, according to Bloomberg.

This comes after anemic growth in 2016, where GDP expanded by only 1.4 percent. If oil prices stabilize, and the country’s economic forecast improves, GDP will likely expand by 2.3 percent in 2018.

The official Saudi response decried the IMF’s results as overly conservative. A government spokesman declared that Saudi growth would be “north of 1 percent,” citing the anticipated investment in renewable energy and a stimulus packaged the Saudi government was planning for the private sector, according to Bloomberg.

The Saudi leadership had been pivotal in the campaign to bring about an OPEC cut, after resisting production deals for years. The stakes were raised this year, as draining cash reserves and a resistant American energy sector convinced Riyadh that cuts were needed to boost prices. The cuts have come, surprising many analysts, and the OPEC deal looks set to hold at least for the time being.

Along with the cuts to production, the Saudi government looks to cut spending. The 2017 budget, the most detailed in the country’s history, lays out a series of measures for stabilizing state finances, which plunged into deficit in 2016 as a result of the crash in prices. The state is the largest employer and spender in the Saudi economy, which is largely built on the oil and gas industry. Cuts to construction projects and social programs, estimated at around $20 billion, will help to balance the budget. The deficit in 2016 was around 12.6 percent, down from 2015’s budget deficit of 15 percent, and if prices stay where the Saudis expect them to, between $50 …read more

Source: Can Saudi Arabia Survive With Oil Below $60?

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Gas and renewables can work together to cut cost of power and meet demand for sustainable energy. …read more

Source: World needs green energy & gas to meet future demand

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By Tyler Durden

There’s a big disconnect for traders. Everyone keeps telling Bloomberg's Richard Breslow that there's so much uncertainty out there that it's too dangerous to trade. They also assume every time we get yet another flailing gyration in a given day’s price action that someone knows something — and it’s big.

The truth is, no one knows anything at the moment. There are enormous uncertainties on every continent and where the ball stops bouncing is anybody’s guess. And your guess is as good as the next guy’s.

The irony is, while we have been ascribing tremendous insight as the cause of every random walk, there has been the simultaneous dismissal of those who might actually have an idea. Or affect outcomes. It’s a characteristic of our times to more heavily discount what experts are saying, but you can take it too far.

The weird and unintuitive truth is since the beginning of this year the deafening roar of investors’ fear of being wrong has drowned out the fact that nothing is going on. Everyone is psyching themselves out instead of trading.

And it’s a shame because given the enormity of the potential news-set down the road, this might be one of those times where it’s easier to trade the rumor rather than the fact. Especially because so many of those hypothetical facts could be digital events.

Oh my God, oh my God, the pound is collapsing. No, no, it’s having its best day in years. As London staggers in this morning, GBP/USD is about 25 pips from its year-to-date average price. Which we might have seen in today’s trading if the range wasn’t so small.

Trump trades have collapsed? Not yet. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is set to debut in Europe today a mere two basis points from its YTD average.

The S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 and Topix indices are all within touching distance of their average price. And on and on. Big daily volatility, signifying nothing used to be trading desks’ bread-and-butter.

Janet Yellen hedged herself pretty well yesterday. Bullish on the economy, unwilling to commit to anything. Yesterday’s ECB meeting saw Draghi say as little as possible. Why? Because they are uncertain. Start using this to your advantage.

…read more

Source: "Take Advantage Of Uncertainty While It Lasts" – Trader Warns "No One ‘Knows’ Anything At The Moment"

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Stephen Colbert brought back his old “Colbert Report” persona to say goodbye to President Obama. …read more

Source: Colbert, Fallon & Meyers prep for Trump’s inauguration

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By The_Real_Fly

At the end of the Bush administration, I hated the republicans. George was such a fucking idiot, alongside the tea party retards. I viewed Obama as a welcomed respite. In hindsight, I probably voted for Obama to prove that I wasn’t some sort of redneck racist.

The Obama administration was very good for stocks — maybe the best ever. But at what cost?

The national debt has doubled, borrowing more than $9 trillion since 2008 and the Fed’s balance sheet has gone from $700 billion to $4.5 trillion. This whole economy is a fucking illusion, a sham. Try to unwind those positions and start paying down that debt and you’ll see the true nature of the economy and the markets.

Obama did nothing, other than kick the can down the road — passing on a nuclear time bomb for future generations. By that fact alone, I consider Obama a grandiose failure, of the community organizing varietal. I’m not even going to get into the wars and his social policies — which has laid waste to the social fabric of America.

So what stocks did the best over the past 8 years, an era defined by crony capitalism, massive advances in technology, and social networks?

BAD NEWS FOR TRADERFAGS. Most of the big winners were held captive by FRED ‘Fucking’ WILSON and his crony capitalist VC pigs. Those greedy fuckers presided over monumental gains in social networks. Here are a few.

Facebook: $4b valuation in 2008 to $363b today.
Twitter: $1.5m valuation in 2008 to $12.3b today.
Yelp: $200m valution in 2008 to $3.2b today.
Snapchat: $485k in 2012 to $25b today.
Airbnb: $20k valuation in 2009 to $30b today.
Uber: $200k valuation in 2009 to $70b today.

That’s where the real money was made. Let’s see what scraps were left over for us — the little rich people.

$TREE +5,130%
$NFLX +4,415%
$JAZZ +4,400%
$DPZ +3,517%
$MKTX +3,300%
$PCLN +3,100%
$ULTA +3,000%
$INCY +2,800%
$MGPI +2,800%
$PPC +2,200%
$PRSC +1,700% (literally a welfare play)

And here were the losers.

$BBRY -85%
$APOL -85%
$SPWR -79%
$SHLD -77%
$FSLR -76%
$RIG -75%
$AVP -73%
$FRO -73%
$CYH -66%
$JCP -66%
$CHK -65%
$BBG -64%

Notice any trends? Which will be the biggest winners and trends under Trump?

I saw a world in need of automation, superfluous comforts indicative of a nation with plenty of excess. It was an era of wanton hedonism for the elite, and a grueling struggle for everyone else. One cannot discuss Obama without thinking about healthcare — his cornerstone issue during his time in office. It failed and now we have to deal with the ramifications.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

…read more

Source: Here Were the Biggest Winners and Losers During Obama’s Reign of Terror

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By Michael Snyder

Over the past couple of months, the radical left has been endlessly hyping the protests against Donald Trump on January 20th and January 21st.  We have been told that half the population absolutely hates Donald Trump and that Washington D.C. will be filled with angry protesters that are ready to take their country back.  So where are they?  The radical left tends to talk a good game, but when it comes time for action they often come up way short.  At this point, it appears that the much-hyped “war in the streets” that they were promising is going to be a giant dud.

Reports from those on the scene in D.C. indicate that there are very few protesters running around.  Yes, a few hundred LGBT activists danced in front of Mike Pence’s home on Wednesday night.  And yes, police fired pepper spray at protesters at one point on Thursday night…

Police and anti-Donald Trump protesters are clashing in a rally that began outside the Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C.

The protest started at the hotel, and then marched through D.C. to the National Press Club several blocks away. Once there … pepper spray was fired into the crowd, and protesters started trying to break through police lines.

One protester got a little bloody during the pepper spray incident, but so far that has been it.

So where are the “Ferguson-style protests” that we were promised?

Of course the truth is that these radical leftists never stood much of a chance in the first place.  Law enforcement authorities have been watching them like a hawk, and the heart of Washington D.C. has been turned into a “fortress” for the inaugural festivities.

According to Reuters, permits have been granted for at least 30 anti-Trump rallies in D.C., but so far it appears that the “army of protesters” that many were dreaming of has failed to materialize.

And the authorities in D.C. appear quite ready to handle whatever is thrown their way.  Numerous media reports today used the term “fortress” to describe the level of security immediately surrounding the U.S. Capitol…

About 28,000 security personnel, miles of fencing, roadblocks, street barricades and dump trucks laden with sand are part of the security cordon around 3 square miles (almost 8 square km) of central Washington.

But even at this late hour, the mainstream media continues to hype the possibility of chaos and violence.  For example, the National Press Photographers Association is warning of Ferguson-style rioting on Friday…

The National Press Photographers Association has issued guidelines to journalists that virtually mirror those sent out during the Ferguson riots in 2014.

Reporters are advised to “maintain situational awareness” and have “an exit plan in case the situation becomes hostile”.

The group also emphasizes that journalists should “move toward the nearest police officer under the assumption that they could protect you from hostile or violent protesters.”

Other mainstream media outlets have been openly discussing the possibility of some sort of catastrophic terror attack during the Inauguration.  If you can …read more

Source: Like Clinton’s Campaign, Will The Much-Hyped Inauguration Protests End Up Being A Giant Failure For The Left?

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

At this point, I’ve seen enough. It’s becoming quite clear that Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg wants to be President of these United States.

The topic first piqued my interest about a week ago when I read an article published at Vanity Fair titled, Will Mark Zuckerberg be Our Next President?

Increasingly, a number of influential people in Silicon Valley seem to think that Mark Zuckerberg will likely run for president of the United States one day. And some people, including myself, believe that he could indeed win. “He wants to be emperor” is a phrase that has become common among people who have known him over the years.

We’ll get to my theory on what that means a little later. First, let’s zip through the myriad indications that he might choose to throw his hoodie into the ring. Last year’s Facebook proxy statement articulated that Zuckerberg can run for office and still maintain control of his company. (To this end, Trump’s controversial precedent may facilitate any thorny political complications regarding the matter.) Then, over the holidays, Zuckerberg responded to a question about being an atheist, a belief he once professed, with a decidedly more politically circumspect answer: “I was raised Jewish and then I went through a period where I questioned things, but now I believe religion is very important.” (No one likes a president who doesn’t believe in some sort of God.) More recently, President Obama’s former campaign manager, David Plouffe, joined the philanthropic Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, to lead policy and advocacy. Other politicians from both parties have also joined the organization. And then there was the most obvious intimation: earlier this year, Zuckerberg, who has a habit of posting his annual New Year’s resolution on his Facebook page, declared that after conquering the previous challenges of learning Mandarin, and building an artificial-intelligence butler for his home, this year he was going to meet “people in every state in the US.” He noted that he’s “spent significant time in many states already, so I’ll need to travel to about 30 states this year to complete this challenge.” I wonder how many of those states are swing states?

If he does want the job, Zuckerberg definitely has the personality for it. When Facebook went public in 2012, I co-authored a profile of the young C.E.O. During the reporting, I heard from several friends about his penchant for playing world-conquering board and video games. Early childhood pals told me that one of Zuckerberg’s favorite video games as a boy was Civilization, the game in which you have to “build an empire to stand the test of time.” Others have told me that, to this day, Zuckerberg loves to play Risk, a strategy board game where you have to essentially take over the world. Believe it or not, he ended up applying some of these theories while forging and managing the extraordinary growth …read more

Source: "He Wants To Be Emperor" – How Mark Zuckerberg Is Scheming To Become President

    

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