"Data Dependent" Fed Chickens Out Again – Blames Global Uncertainty For US Rate Hold
By Tyler Durden
With gold up 15% since The Fed hiked in December (and stocks lower) and the market pricing a hike today at just 4% (June 53%), it is not surprising that Janet panicced and folded again in the face of “unequivocally good” data based on what The Fed has said it monitors. Of course there were plenty of excuses:
- *FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%-0.5% AS EXPECTED
- *FED SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE TO POSE RISKS
- *FED MEDIAN FORECAST IMPLIES TWO 2016 RATE HIKES VS FOUR IN DEC
Not too dovish, not too hawkish, a goldilocks statement – just a little more inflation and just a little less unemployment and just another month or two of near-ZIRP rates is what it takes. We are breathless in anticipation.
Before The Fed statement, June was at 53% probabilty of a rate-hike…
Since The Fed's last “action” things have not quite gone as expected…
Additional headlines include:
- *FED: MKT-BASED INFLATION COMPENSATION MEASURES REMAIN LOW
- *FED SAYS RANGE OF DATA SHOW MORE STRENGTH IN LABOR MARKET
- *FED: ECONOMY EXPECTED TO WARRANT ONLY GRADUAL RATE INCREASES
- *FED FORECASTS SHOW SHALLOWER PACE OF RATE RISES IN 2017, 2018
- *FED: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MODERATE DESPITE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
Full redline below:
* * *
As a reminder, the last time we got a “hawkish, balanced” statement was October 2015… and this happened…
Source: "Data Dependent" Fed Chickens Out Again – Blames Global Uncertainty For US Rate Hold
