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By Tyler Durden

Having gotten virtually none of his “surprise” forecasts for 2016 right – among which that the S&P will decline (after it was supposed to rise by 15% in 2015 when it closed red for the year), the 10Y will not rise above 2.50%, Hillary Clinton will defeat Ted Cruz in the presidential election, Democrats will gain control of the Senate, Chinese growth drops below 5% as the country’s banks “get in trouble”, crude oil remains in the $30s, and global growth falls to 2% (he did correctly predict just one rate hike, and the continuation of the European refugee crisis), today Blackstone’s Byron Wien issued his list of Ten Surprises for the coming year for the 32nd time.

Considering that Wien has been doing this since 1986, one would think he has gotten better at it, but alas no.

So after last year’s embarrassment, not surprisingly the 83 year old has flip-flopped back to optimistic, and in his latest set of forecasts for 2017 expects the S&P 500 to rally to 2,500 as corporate profits jump to $130 a share. Which is ironic because the “vice president of multi-asset investing at Blackstone Group” failed to see the 10% rally in U.S. shares last year, instead expecting a down year.

For 2017, he anticipates that yields on 10-year Treasury notes will approach 4% as gross domestic product expands at a rate of 3%. He also expects German Chancellor Angela Merkel to lose her bid for re-election. The upbeat forecasts set Wien apart on a day when other legacy voices from a past generation voiced caution, among them Larry Summers who said investors are overlooking the risks of Donald Trump’s policies, while analysts at Eurasia Group said Trump could contribute to a level of global instability not seen since World War II.

Perhaps, but what we do know almost for certain is that assumping the opposite of Wien’s forecasts has a hit ratio well above 50%. Which means: S&P crashes, 10Y yields tumble, the US economy enters a recession, but at least Merkel will keep her job.

According to Byron, a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. We call it something you read one year from today and laugh.

Below is the list of Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2017:

1. Still brooding about his loss of the popular vote, Donald Trump vows to win over those who oppose him by 2020. He moves away from his more extreme positions on virtually all issues to the dismay of some right wing loyalists. He insists, “The voters elected me, not some ideology.” His unilateral actions throw policy staffers throughout the government into turmoil. Virtually all of the treaties and agreements he vowed to tear up on his first day in office are modified, not trashed. His wastebasket remains empty.
2. The combination of tax cuts …read more

   Source: After Getting Almost Nothing Right In 2016, Here Are Byron Wien’s "Ten Surprises" For 2017

       

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   Posted January 4th, 2017 in Uncategorized.