Can Marine Le Pen Pull Off French Election Stunner? Germany Loses No Matter Who Wins
By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.
I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.
Current Polls
Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.
Top Five candidates
- Marine le Pen: National Front – Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration – 25%
- François Fillon: Republicans – Center Right – 24%
- Emmanuel Macron: En Marche! – Socialist – 17%
- Manuel Valls: Socialist – 11%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Left Front – Socialist – 13%
In France, the winners of each party square off in around one of national elections. If no one gets 50% of the vote, the top two square off in round two.
With about 25% or so solid votes, le Pen is likely to make it to the second round. The others battle to see who comes up against le Pen.
Eurointelligence Reports
January 13: Yesterday night the seven candidates for the left primaries had their first debate. It was sometimes painful to watch and it is not clear how much the audience took home from the long catalogue of measures the candidates were quizzed about. All tried to differentiate themselves from François Hollande, and lashed out against the common enemy François Fillon. All were eager to show how presidential they are and how well they represent the real socialist heart. Though it did not look like they succeeded. One blogger wrote that there was one irreconcilable division, that is between the candidates and their audience.
François Fillon, meanwhile, has his own rebellion to deal with. Laurent Wauquiez, Christian Estrosi, and other ex-Sarkozists, insist on making their own mark and call for changes to Fillon’s programme. When Fillon made his big appearance in Nice, Estrosi told everyone in front of the presidential candidate that he is not a “Filloniste”. Laurent Wauquiez, who was fired by Fillon, is leading this mini-revolt. He recently called for a de-taxation of supplementary working hours, one of Sarkozy’s key measures, which is absolutely not in the Fillon’s programme, writes Marianne. Brice Hortefeux, another Sarkozy ally, said they want to enrich the programme. Fillon, however, remains firm and will not give in to those demands. His campaign chief dismissed those efforts as coming from bad losers or small players. The risk is that he may alienate the Sarkozy wing, though.
January 12: For Macron, no politics goes without narrative and no narrative without ideal. So, what is his ideal? Some friends call him a real libertarian, others a real democrat, who has yet to find a socially empathetic narrative. In 2015 he outlined his three dreams – equality, Europe and industry. When it comes to Europe, he may well compare with Jacques Delors, who like him was not loved by the Socialist party and made his way. But this comparison only holds on Europe. Macron’s economic ideal is inspired by new-Keynesian thinking, and the idea that social improvement is achieved by eliminating unjust rents that …read more
Source: Can Marine Le Pen Pull Off French Election Stunner? Germany Loses No Matter Who Wins
100% Pure Garcinia Cambogia Extract – Appetite Suppressant – Carb Blocker Capsules – 2100 MG – 90 Caps
Looking for something special ? Find The Lowest Price HERE Posted January 16th, 2017 in Uncategorized.
