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By Tyler Durden

Global shares were mixed, equity futures, the dollar and crude rose as investors focused their attention on today’s inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president. While the early tone is well bid, some traders anticipate a volatile session, with speculation that a bout of “sell the inauguration” could cap the aging Trump rally, which started with his inauguration.

Despite last night’s Yellen speech which was more dovish than her remarks just 24 hours earlier, and which suggested that the US economy is “not overheating”, the dollar managed to rebound from overnight losses and was trading 0.2% higher this morning. The early gains came after China reported its first economic expansion in 2 years (conveniently with president Xi in Davos) with GDP rising to 6.8% after quarters of decline.

However for the year, China’s GDP growth declined to the slowest pace in 26 years, despite a record debt load and record weak Yuan.

But it will be all about Trump today: tens of thousands of law enforcement officers and miles of barriers were in place in Washington D.C., as officials braced for hundreds of thousands of people planning to celebrate or protest the inauguration of Trump. The inauguration is “definitely a big moment for the markets,” said Neil Mellor, a London-based currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “We could get more clues about what Trump is planning today. If he ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions.”

“All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump’s inauguration speech,” Morgan Stanley’s Hans Redeker wrote in a note. “The more ‘Presidential’ this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets.”

“[Trump is] likely to talk about job creation and unifying the U.S. and we may have to wait a bit longer for details on economic measures,” said Natixis fixed income strategist Cyril Regnat.

“It’s clear that investors have reached a level where they are prepared to wait and see what the Trump administration has to offer,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Ltd. in Sydney.

Trump’s inauguration ceremony “will be followed by a speech that will be carefully decoded by those looking for signs of things to come in the new U.S. administration, an exercise that amounts to political astrology in an era characterized by a shakeup of the old rules of the game,” Citigroup’s chief global political analyst Tina Fordham wrote in note.

As Bloomberg notes, rallies in the dollar and equities are easing this week before Trump is sworn in as the 45th American president, with investors growing anxious for indications the administration will follow through on pro-growth campaign promises. Billionaire investor George Soros said the euphoria among stock investors since Trump’s victory will end as uncertainty takes over. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has churned in its tightest range ever over the past month.

European stocks opened weaker before recouping some losses to trade flat. Trading was …read more

Source: S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

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Wayne Barrett, a New York City muckraker who burnished his credentials with unsparing reporting on Donald Trump, died Thursday. He was 71. …read more

Source: Wayne Barrett, Trump chronicler, dies at 71

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

With the OPEC production deal holding, at least for the moment, questions have now arisen over how prospects look for the cartel’s biggest producer. It’s been a strange few years for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as its endured budget deficits for the first time in its modern history, stagnation in oil prices and rising competition from other OPEC members and the American shale boom. Recently, talk has centered on the Saudi monarchy’s glimpse of the future: the Vision 2030 plan, whereby it hopes to diversify its economy and end its dependence on the mercurial oil and gas market. But can the world’s biggest oil producer and OPEC’s de facto leader pull it off?

In the short term, Riyadh will continue to feel the pain of lower-than-normal oil prices. The growth outlook for Saudi Arabia has been slashed, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on January 16 that the world’s largest oil producer would see its GDP grow by only 0.4 percent in 2017. The estimate comes on the basis of the continued low price of oil, but more importantly on the country’s slashed oil production: as a result of the recent OPEC production deal, Saudi Arabia has agreed to keep its production level at or below 10 million bpd. This has resulted in a cut in its growth outlook, down from 2 percent in October, according to Bloomberg.

This comes after anemic growth in 2016, where GDP expanded by only 1.4 percent. If oil prices stabilize, and the country’s economic forecast improves, GDP will likely expand by 2.3 percent in 2018.

The official Saudi response decried the IMF’s results as overly conservative. A government spokesman declared that Saudi growth would be “north of 1 percent,” citing the anticipated investment in renewable energy and a stimulus packaged the Saudi government was planning for the private sector, according to Bloomberg.

The Saudi leadership had been pivotal in the campaign to bring about an OPEC cut, after resisting production deals for years. The stakes were raised this year, as draining cash reserves and a resistant American energy sector convinced Riyadh that cuts were needed to boost prices. The cuts have come, surprising many analysts, and the OPEC deal looks set to hold at least for the time being.

Along with the cuts to production, the Saudi government looks to cut spending. The 2017 budget, the most detailed in the country’s history, lays out a series of measures for stabilizing state finances, which plunged into deficit in 2016 as a result of the crash in prices. The state is the largest employer and spender in the Saudi economy, which is largely built on the oil and gas industry. Cuts to construction projects and social programs, estimated at around $20 billion, will help to balance the budget. The deficit in 2016 was around 12.6 percent, down from 2015’s budget deficit of 15 percent, and if prices stay where the Saudis expect them to, between $50 …read more

Source: Can Saudi Arabia Survive With Oil Below $60?

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Gas and renewables can work together to cut cost of power and meet demand for sustainable energy. …read more

Source: World needs green energy & gas to meet future demand

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By Tyler Durden

There’s a big disconnect for traders. Everyone keeps telling Bloomberg's Richard Breslow that there's so much uncertainty out there that it's too dangerous to trade. They also assume every time we get yet another flailing gyration in a given day’s price action that someone knows something — and it’s big.

The truth is, no one knows anything at the moment. There are enormous uncertainties on every continent and where the ball stops bouncing is anybody’s guess. And your guess is as good as the next guy’s.

The irony is, while we have been ascribing tremendous insight as the cause of every random walk, there has been the simultaneous dismissal of those who might actually have an idea. Or affect outcomes. It’s a characteristic of our times to more heavily discount what experts are saying, but you can take it too far.

The weird and unintuitive truth is since the beginning of this year the deafening roar of investors’ fear of being wrong has drowned out the fact that nothing is going on. Everyone is psyching themselves out instead of trading.

And it’s a shame because given the enormity of the potential news-set down the road, this might be one of those times where it’s easier to trade the rumor rather than the fact. Especially because so many of those hypothetical facts could be digital events.

Oh my God, oh my God, the pound is collapsing. No, no, it’s having its best day in years. As London staggers in this morning, GBP/USD is about 25 pips from its year-to-date average price. Which we might have seen in today’s trading if the range wasn’t so small.

Trump trades have collapsed? Not yet. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is set to debut in Europe today a mere two basis points from its YTD average.

The S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 and Topix indices are all within touching distance of their average price. And on and on. Big daily volatility, signifying nothing used to be trading desks’ bread-and-butter.

Janet Yellen hedged herself pretty well yesterday. Bullish on the economy, unwilling to commit to anything. Yesterday’s ECB meeting saw Draghi say as little as possible. Why? Because they are uncertain. Start using this to your advantage.

…read more

Source: "Take Advantage Of Uncertainty While It Lasts" – Trader Warns "No One ‘Knows’ Anything At The Moment"

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